REPORT ON GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY BY PRIVATE BANKING BANK OF CHINA 2026 中国银行个人金融全球资产配置 自皮书 2025黄金领涨：主升浪中彰显资产硬实力 2025年的全球金融市场，在变局与重构中走出波澜壮阔的行情，黄金无疑是其中最受关注的资产之 一。地缘政治风险持续攀升，叠加美元信用体系面临系统性挑战，国际金价在年内五十多次刷新历史 新高，伦敦金全年涨幅高达64.56%，不仅远超前两年表现，更以强劲的主升浪确立了其作为核心战 略资产的地位。 多维验证：股汇债市场印证专业洞察力 这种专业洞察力同样体现在对全市场的判断上。 2025年初发布的《2025个人金融全球资产配置白 皮书》对A股、人民币汇率及债券市场的预判，均被全年行情一一印证。报告提出"中国资产价值重 估开启、A股慢牛格局基本形成"，而2025年A股成交额突破420万亿元，两融余额升至2.5万亿元， 长期资金积极入市，市场韧性尽显；在汇市方面，白皮书预判美元"例外论"终结、人民币具备稳定 基础，全年人民币兑美元稳中有升，年末守稳7关口；债券市场上，报告指出中债将展现 ...

中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 黄金价格再创历史新高。截至1月21日，伦敦现货金价开盘4764.5美元/盎司，盘中最高达4878美元/盎 司，日内涨幅超过2%；自1月19日以来3日内涨幅接近6%。 随着国际金价屡创新高，且持续高位震荡，近来黄金ETF资金配置分化趋势也愈加显现。一方面，国际 大型资金短期头寸调整，战术性获利了结态度显现。截至1月20日（周二），全球最大黄金上市交易基 金（ETF）SPDR Gold Trust黄金持仓量为1081.66吨，较前一交易日减少4.01吨。 张思远表示，这种分化意味着本轮金价上涨的驱动力已从传统投资需求转向央行购金等长期配置。ETF 资金流向与实物需求的"剪刀差"，反映出黄金市场投资结构正从"金融投机主导"转向"战略配置主导"。 在分析国内市场的特征时，张思远指出，国内投资者通过黄金ETF参与市场呈现三大新特征：一是规模 爆发式增长，华安黄金ETF规模突破千亿元，成为亚洲最大黄金ETF，反映配置需求常态化；二是高位 增持意愿强烈，即使国际金价突破4700美元，境内黄金ETF份额仍保持增长，与SPDR减仓形成反差； 三是散户与机构行为分化，散户通过低门槛ETF入场，机构则偏 ...

Group 1 - The global landscape is changing significantly as of 2026, with increased risk aversion in markets due to political maneuvers by former US President Trump, leading to gold prices surpassing $4,800 per ounce and approaching the $5,000 target [1] - The evolution of international circumstances has lowered investor risk appetite, enhancing the attractiveness of bond assets, which provide stable interest income, especially as the bond market in China continues to expand and attract global investors [1] - Following the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies on September 24, 2024, the stock market has begun to show signs of recovery, establishing a preliminary slow bull market, which has shifted investor focus from bonds to stocks, resulting in a significant decline in the bond market [1] Group 2 - By 2026, a more balanced development opportunity is anticipated for stocks and bonds, with a significant amount of two-year and four-year fixed deposits maturing, totaling approximately 50 trillion RMB, which may lead to a reallocation of funds towards equities or bonds based on investor risk preferences [2] - Current household savings in China have reached 165 trillion RMB, with the real estate market in adjustment, prompting a need for new investment channels, primarily in the stock and bond markets [2] - Investors are advised to allocate assets based on their risk tolerance, with a portion in equities to benefit from the slow bull market and another in fixed-income products for stable returns, alongside a suggested 20% allocation to precious metals for risk mitigation [3] Group 3 - The debate over whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming Spring Festival is ongoing, with expectations of a spring market rally despite recent market fluctuations, as January typically sees a peak in credit issuance, estimated at 3 to 4 trillion RMB, which could provide significant liquidity to the capital markets [3] - The structure of holdings is crucial; holding quality stocks or funds aligns with the upward trend of the slow bull market, while overvalued stocks lacking performance support may warrant profit-taking [4] - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating against the USD, having recently surpassed the 7 mark and stabilizing around 6.96, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and China's asset stabilization policies [4] Group 4 - The global monetary system is undergoing transformation, with the USD's position declining due to increased US government debt exceeding $38 trillion and actions undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to further appreciation of the RMB [5] - The current technological landscape is characterized by the fourth industrial revolution centered around AI, with significant potential for the emergence of trillion-dollar companies in this sector, particularly in China, which has a vast consumer market [6] - AI applications are expected to be a major focus in 2026, with promising areas including humanoid robots and various "AI+" applications in sectors like healthcare, education, and finance, presenting numerous investment opportunities [6]

就在今天，国际现货黄金价格已经突破4870美元/盎司，新年以来涨幅超过12%。 黄金，仍在不断刷新我们的认知。 新年以来这一波金价创新高，主要原因依然是地缘政治因素，格陵兰岛的局势越来越热闹，美国甚至威 胁对欧洲发动关税战。这一系列不确定性因素，导致投资者转向黄金这类传统避险资产以求保值。最典 型的例子是，波兰央行已经宣布，将再购买150吨黄金（价值约230亿美元）强化国家储备。这就是短期 金价为何大涨的原因。 再回顾这一轮黄金超级大牛市，起点是2022年，因俄乌冲突而起，当时金价才1700美元/盎司。转眼 间，快四年时间过去了。这四年时间，整个世界似乎始终不太平，各种不确定性因素刺激金价不断上 涨。从笔者内心来讲，我厌恶看到战争，希望世界和平，喜欢看到科技创新带领人类不断迈向文明的新 高度。或许，正是这种认知上的局限性，导致笔者终究是看错了金价。 看错了就要认，但现在的问题是，金价不断创新高，还能继续追吗？ 对于这个问题，我依然坚持此前的判断，短期不追高，调整中可做中长期资产布局。很多人都是买涨不 买跌，看到金价大涨的时候才去追，而调整的时候往往无人问津，结果经常买到阶段高点。不过，如果 我们将黄金投资看作 ...

格隆汇1月21日｜普来仕多元资产解决方案策略师兼投资组合经理Matt Bance表示，黄金突破历史新 高，反映公司长期以来看好黄金作为今年策略性投资组合分散工具的观点。不过，近期金价突破并非高 追讯号，而是证明推动金价的核心因素仍然存在，包括地缘政治风险、通胀走向未明，以及对央行独立 性的忧虑增加等因素，这进一步反映黄金在资产组合中的策略性配置价值，而非仅作为短线交易工具。 他续指，从资产配置角度而言，仍然看好黄金，但对存续期维持偏低比重。在经济疲弱及实质收益率下 跌时期，黄金与债券有望缓冲股市调整带来的冲击。而当实质收益率上升时，黄金亦较债券更具抗跌 力。 ...

Matt Bance指出，以贸易加权计算的美元估值仍处高位，增加下行风险。同时，政策制定更趋反复，加 上央行独立性备受质疑(最近鲍威尔主席提到前所未有的法律压力便突显这点)，令市场对美元在压力期 间的反应更添变数。在此环境下，黄金作为法定货币体系以外的资产更见优势。 智通财经APP获悉，普徕仕多元资产解决方案策略师兼投资组合经理Matt Bance表示，黄金突破历史高 位，反映其长期以来看好黄金作为2026年策略性投资组合分散工具的观点。近期金价表现印证三大关键 因素的影响：地缘政治风险、通胀走向未明，以及对央行独立性的忧虑增加。这进一步反映黄金在资产 组合中的策略性配置价值，而非仅作为短线交易工具。金价突破并非追高信号，而是印证推动金价的核 心因素仍然存在：政策前景欠明朗、金融体系压力及地缘政治风险持续。 从资产配置角度而言，普徕仕看好黄金，但对存续期维持偏低比重。在经济疲弱和实质收益率下跌时 期，黄金与债券有望缓冲股市调整带来的冲击。然而，当实质收益率上升时，黄金较债券更具抗跌力。 此趋势反映各国央行为分散外汇储备而持续增持黄金的需求稳固，较少受价格波动影响，令金价走势逐 步摆脱与实质息率的传统逆向关系。 ...

Core Insights - The 19th HED China Summit held in Shenzhen focused on reshaping investment logic in China and wealth management paradigms, covering hedge funds, ETFs, and financial derivatives [2] - Key discussions included asset allocation strategies in a low-interest-rate environment, global investment opportunities, and the evolution of quantitative strategies [2] Group 1: Macro Trends and Industry Insights - The asset management industry is experiencing three core trends: a shift from single strategies to systemic competition, the rise of ecological cooperation, and the global expansion of Chinese private equity funds [5] - In 2026, insurance asset allocation is expected to show a slight decrease in bond proportions, a rapid increase in equity investments, and a slowdown in alternative investments, with a notable improvement in returns [7][8] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that the GDP growth rate needs to maintain around 3.5% to meet the 2035 target of $20,000 per capita GDP, with a focus on structural breakthroughs in new productive forces [9] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The North Exchange has become a primary platform for innovative SMEs, with 78% of its listings classified as "specialized, refined, and new," indicating a solid foundation for long-term market growth [21] - Investment strategies for 2026 include a dual approach: a defensive strategy focusing on quality new stocks and a growth strategy targeting high-growth sectors [22][23] - The rise of AI is expected to significantly impact inflation, labor markets, and asset prices, with the U.S. and China leading in AI development [14] Group 3: Quantitative Investment and Technological Integration - The quantitative investment sector is entering a "Cambrian explosion" phase, emphasizing diversity over uniformity, with a need for unique value propositions to stand out in a crowded market [17][18] - The implementation of stricter regulations is pushing quantitative strategies to evolve from high-frequency to mid-frequency approaches, with AI and deep learning becoming key drivers [32] - Cloud services are enhancing the efficiency of quantitative research and trading by enabling rapid deployment across global markets, thus reducing costs and improving operational capabilities [35] Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Future Directions - The establishment of the Investment Committee at the Capital Market Research Institute aims to create a high-value ecosystem linking domestic and international investors with listed companies [11] - The summit provided a platform for discussions on the challenges and strategies for Chinese institutions expanding overseas, emphasizing the need for adaptation to local regulations and building trust with foreign investors [38] - The closing discussions highlighted the structural changes in quantitative strategies due to regulatory pressures and technological advancements, stressing the importance of differentiated strategies and robust risk management [41]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company: Cai Bai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) Key Points - **Strong Growth Performance**: Cai Bai Co., Ltd. has shown accelerated performance since Q4, primarily due to strong demand in Beijing's gold and jewelry market, benefits from tax reforms, and rising gold prices. [1] - **Retail Sales Growth**: From January to November, retail sales of gold and jewelry in Beijing increased by 40.5% year-on-year, with further acceleration noted. For the period from January to September, the year-on-year growth was 33.5%. During the New Year holiday, Cai Bai's average daily sales doubled compared to the previous year. [1] - **Future Earnings Projections**: The company is expected to achieve over 900 million in earnings for the year 2025, with a projected quarterly growth rate exceeding 50% in Q4. The gold bar business is anticipated to maintain high growth in Q1 2026, while the jewelry business is expected to recover steadily. [1] - **Wealth Effect and Market Demand**: The increase in gold bar sales over the past two years has been driven not only by rising gold prices but also by changes in asset allocation and financial needs. Gold bars are viewed as a liquid and high-potential asset, serving as a vehicle for wealth effect. [2] - **Online Sales Channels**: Currently, 93.1% of sales in external markets are conducted through online channels, predominantly in the form of gold bars. This indicates significant opportunities for future expansion in external markets. [2] - **Valuation and Dividend Yield**: The company is considered undervalued with a high dividend yield. For 2026, a conservative estimate suggests a 15%-20% growth in earnings, corresponding to a profit of 1.05 billion. The projected dividend yield is 5.9%, with a valuation of 13 times earnings, indicating strong cost-effectiveness and continued recommendation for investment. [2]

Group 1 - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that selling U.S. assets and the dollar is a "dangerous bet" for investors [1] - Ermotti emphasizes that it is impossible to completely shift asset allocation out of the U.S., as it remains the world's strongest economy [1] - The U.S. Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, and the S&P 500 index declined amid rising tensions between President Trump and NATO allies over Greenland [1] Group 2 - UBS, as the world's largest wealth management firm, has nearly $7 trillion in assets and is seeking to expand its wealth management business in the U.S. [2] - The bank's application for a full banking license in the U.S. has received conditional approval [2] - Ermotti states that the U.S. market continues to be a focal point for UBS due to ongoing wealth creation and innovation in the economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of "high-interest fixed deposit maturities" is expected in 2026, with approximately 50 trillion yuan of funds set to be unlocked, impacting residents' asset allocation strategies [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Context - The high-interest deposit wave is a result of a previous surge in deposit rates during 2020-2021, where five-year fixed deposit rates reached as high as 5% due to increased credit demand and competitive banking strategies [3][4]. - The period of 2022-2023 saw a rise in "passive savings" due to market pressures, leading to a significant increase in the amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 [3][5]. Group 2: Deposit Maturity Scale - Estimates suggest that the scale of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 will be around 45 trillion to 50 trillion yuan, with a notable increase from 2025 [4]. - A more comprehensive analysis indicates that the maturing amount of residents' fixed deposits could reach approximately 75 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase compared to 2025 [5]. Group 3: Investment Preferences - Despite declining interest rates, many conservative investors are likely to continue renewing their fixed deposits due to a low tolerance for risk and a preference for capital safety over higher returns [6][7]. - The shift in investment behavior is evident as residents are moving from riskier assets to more stable income-generating assets, indicating a cautious approach to asset allocation [5][10]. Group 4: Financial Products and Trends - The demand for stable financial products, such as "solid income+" funds and conservative insurance products, is increasing as investors seek safer alternatives to traditional deposits [8][14]. - The insurance market is witnessing a revival, with products like dividend life insurance becoming popular due to their stable returns compared to fluctuating financial products [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to gain market share as a result of the deposit migration trend, driven by changing demographics and regulatory support for floating income products [13]. - Financial institutions are adapting to the changing landscape by offering competitive rates on fixed deposits and diversifying their product offerings to attract cautious investors [7][16].