Group 1: Market Outlook and Strategies - The current stock market shows a recovery in risk appetite, but fundamental pressures maintain a range-bound pattern, with overall trends positive but subject to periodic corrections and sector rotations [2] - The driving forces behind market movements are primarily capital flows and policy expectations, with sustainability dependent on corporate earnings and overall demand improvements [2] - The "barbell strategy" remains relevant, with adjustments suggested for both sides based on risk-reward considerations and trend analysis [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Insights - In a low-interest-rate environment, the focus should be on emerging market equities and gold or short-term U.S. Treasuries as key asset allocation themes [1] - The importance of low-correlation strategies is emphasized, as single strategies struggle to manage drawdowns effectively; integrating various strategies can enhance overall portfolio Sharpe ratios [1][4] - The shift in bond market strategy from "yield-driven" to "portfolio optimization" is noted, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and managing duration to reduce volatility [6] Group 3: Risk Management Approaches - The risk of losses can be managed through both preemptive and reactive measures, with a focus on strategic asset allocation and tactical short-term signals to mitigate "missing out" risks [5] - The bond market faces multiple pressures, including capital diversion to equities and inflation expectations, necessitating a defensive approach with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of exploring various investment options beyond traditional fixed deposits to enhance wealth growth, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [1][14]. Group 1: Current State of Fixed Deposits - As of 2025, the total balance of residents' deposits in China reached 128.5 trillion yuan, with approximately 46% in fixed deposits, indicating a significant amount of capital earning low returns [2]. - The average annual interest rate for fixed deposits among major banks was reported at 2.65% in the first quarter of 2025, while alternative investment avenues could yield annualized returns of 3.8% to 4.2% with similar risk levels [2][4]. Group 2: Alternative Investment Options - **Large Time Deposits**: These offer higher interest rates compared to traditional fixed deposits, with three-year rates ranging from 3.0% to 3.45%, potentially yielding 27,900 to 31,050 yuan in interest for a 300,000 yuan deposit [5]. - **Structured Deposits**: These combine traditional deposits with financial derivatives, offering an average annualized return of 3.8% as of mid-2025, but with variable returns based on market indicators [6]. - **Smart Deposits**: A new product type that provides flexibility and competitive returns, with average annualized rates around 2.8% to 3.2%, allowing for partial withdrawals while maintaining higher interest on unwithdrawn amounts [6]. - **Bank Wealth Management Products**: These are categorized by risk levels, with low-risk products yielding average annualized returns of 3.6% to 4.2%, significantly higher than fixed deposits [7]. - **Money Market Funds**: These offer good liquidity and lower risk, with average returns around 2.7% as of July 2025, suitable for those needing frequent access to funds [7]. Group 3: Wealth Management Strategies - A diversified investment approach is recommended, such as allocating 10% to smart deposits, 15% to low-risk wealth management products, and 5% to money market funds, which could yield a total return of approximately 34,500 yuan over three years, outperforming fixed deposits by about 9,750 yuan [8]. - Continuous learning and adjustment of investment strategies are crucial as financial markets evolve and personal circumstances change [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the attractiveness of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility Index, highlighting its high dividend yield, low volatility, and favorable valuation as a stable investment option in the current market environment [2][13]. Group 1: Dividend Yield and Selection Mechanism - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility Index utilizes a three-year average dividend yield as a core selection criterion, targeting large-cap stocks with a minimum yield of 6%, resulting in a weighted average dividend yield of 6.07% as of July 2025, which is the highest among dividend indices [3][4]. - The index ranks above the Hang Seng High Dividend Index (4.8%) and the A-share Dividend Index (5.2%) in terms of dividend yield [3]. Group 2: Low Volatility and Defensive Strategy - The index features a low annualized volatility of 2.97%, which is 31% lower than the Hang Seng Dividend Index (4.3%), providing a defensive shield against market fluctuations [6]. - During significant market downturns, the ETF associated with this index experienced an average drawdown of only 2.1%, compared to a 5.8% drawdown for the CSI 300 Index [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Sector Allocation - As of Q2 2025, the index's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.63, indicating a valuation in the lowest 10% historically and nearly 50% lower than similar A-share dividend products [8]. - The index has a high concentration in three sectors: banking (32%), coal (18%), and transportation (14%), which are known for their high dividends and strong defensive characteristics [9]. Group 4: Performance and Policy Support - The index has demonstrated strong performance, with a 10.96% excess return over the Hang Seng Total Return Index in the past three months and a two-year annualized return of 30%, ranking it among the top three in the Hong Kong dividend product category [10]. - Approximately 75% of the index's holdings are in state-owned enterprises, benefiting from recent policy incentives aimed at improving market valuations for high-dividend assets, with 12 companies initiating buyback plans totaling over HKD 20 billion [13].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of "fixed income +" products has significantly diverged in the second half of the year, with those leaning towards equities and convertible bonds showing notable gains, while those focused on pure bonds have lagged behind [1][3][4] Group 1: Performance of "Fixed Income +" Products - "Fixed income +" products with higher equity and convertible bond allocations have seen substantial performance increases, with some funds achieving returns over 20% since the second half of the year [2][4] - Specific funds such as Huashang Shuangyi A and Jinying Yuanfeng A reported returns of 24.71% and around 20% respectively, with high equity allocations exceeding 40% [2][4] - Conversely, funds primarily invested in pure bonds, like Fangzheng Fubang Hongyuan A, have underperformed, with long-duration bonds leading to negative returns since July [3][4] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The current market environment, characterized by a strong equity market and weak bond market, has led to a higher acceptance of "fixed income +" products, particularly those with convertible bonds [4][5] - Fund managers are advised to dynamically adjust the allocation of the "+" component based on market trends and risk preferences, enhancing the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio [6][7] - The focus on multi-asset strategies and the exploration of various "fixed income +" investment strategies have become prevalent in the public fund industry [7][8] Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - Successful "fixed income +" funds have shown a tendency to overweight sectors such as metals, military, TMT, and healthcare, while underweighting cyclical and financial sectors [4][5] - The strategy of using convertible bonds has proven effective, with funds capturing significant gains from high-performing stocks [2][4] - The importance of dynamic asset valuation and the ability to hedge against market fluctuations are emphasized for optimizing returns in "fixed income +" portfolios [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Public REITs are gaining attention from investors due to their high cash dividend distribution and low volatility in dividends, providing a strong supplement to high-yield assets in the market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Dividend Announcements - As of August 27, 17 public REITs have announced dividend distributions in August, with a total payout exceeding 767 million yuan. Notable distributions include 130 million yuan from Industrial Bank's North Highway REIT and 120 million yuan from Industrial Bank's Mengneng Clean Energy REIT [2][3]. - Three additional REITs are set to distribute dividends in September, with the Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT expected to distribute 147 million yuan [2]. Dividend Rates - The dividend rates for certain REITs are notably high, with Industrial Bank's Mengneng Clean Energy REIT at 11.24%, Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT at 8.18%, and Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT at 5.13% [3]. Frequency of Dividends - Many public REITs are generous with their distributions, often conducting multiple dividend payouts within a year. For instance, several REITs have already executed their second dividend distribution this year since August [3][4]. - The Huatai China Communications REIT has distributed dividends 13 times since its establishment in April 2022, with its second distribution occurring in August [4]. Market Appeal and Asset Allocation - The high dividend yield of public REITs is increasingly recognized by investors for its positive role in asset allocation. Research indicates that public REITs can achieve a distribution ratio exceeding 90%, with many exceeding 97% [4]. - The overall scale of public REITs in public fund of funds (FOF) has reached 196 million yuan by the end of the second quarter, nearly doubling from the previous year [5]. - Incorporating public REITs into investment portfolios can reduce volatility, and as the REIT market expands, it is expected to attract more capital [5].

Core Insights - Multiple brokerages are optimistic about the continuation of policies and improvement in liquidity, expressing confidence in the long-term revaluation trend of Chinese assets [1][2] - The global asset allocation is gradually becoming more diversified and decentralized [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The domestic fiscal policy has exceeded expectations in its richness, with improved liquidity for residents, government, and markets, and a continuation of a growth-stabilizing policy stance is expected [2] - The chief macroeconomic analyst at Huatai Securities warns of potential declines in the credibility of the US dollar, suggesting investors should actively allocate to scarce assets like equities [2] - The domestic liquidity is expected to remain clear in Q4, with market focus shifting to whether earnings can follow the recovery in valuations and sentiment [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Trading funds are experiencing sustained net inflows, with activity levels reaching the highest since 2016, and there is still room for active foreign capital to increase positions in A-shares [4] - The net inflow of funds into A-shares this year is approximately 2.1% of the free float market value, indicating a slight net inflow status [4] - There is a potential shift of resident funds from bank wealth management products to non-bank wealth management products and capital markets [4] Group 3: Sector Focus - The Chinese capital market is entering an unprecedented new phase, requiring new thinking to understand future market dynamics [5] - The large technology sector is expected to continue to strengthen its resource allocation function, resembling the structural characteristics of the Nasdaq market [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors benefiting from the recovery of overseas manufacturing, capital goods under accelerated investment, and insurance and brokerage firms expected to benefit from bottoming capital returns [6]

Group 1 - The public fund issuance continues to show a strong momentum, with 158 funds planned for issuance in August, a 6.04% increase from 149 in July, marking a new monthly record for the year and maintaining over 140 funds issued for two consecutive months [1] - The increase in fund issuance indicates two key signals: a faster pace of product supply in the industry and a more diverse product matrix being offered to investors for better risk-return matching [1] - Equity funds dominate the issuance structure, with 127 out of 158 new funds being equity-related, accounting for 80.38% of the total, including 96 stock funds and 31 mixed funds [1] Group 2 - The rise in equity fund issuance is driven by three main factors: optimized market regulations, recovery in equity asset net values boosting investor confidence, and proactive fund managers increasing supply of equity funds [2] - In contrast, bond fund issuance has decreased, with only 23 funds issued in August, a 28.13% decline from July, attributed to market adjustments and poor performance of bond funds [2] - FOF (fund of funds) issuance has significantly rebounded, with 6 products launched in August, a 500% increase from July, reflecting a growing demand for professional asset allocation amid market uncertainties [2] Group 3 - A total of 66 public fund institutions participated in fund issuance in August, with 23 institutions issuing more than 2 funds each [3] - Bosera Fund led the issuance with 8 funds, primarily in equity, followed by Huaxia Fund and Huitianfu Fund with 7 funds each, focusing on equity and mixed funds respectively [3] - The competitive landscape shows a concentration among top institutions with diversified strategies, as 7 other institutions issued at least 5 funds each [3]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is experiencing a "purchase limit wave," with several leading funds announcing restrictions on large subscriptions due to strong market performance and to protect existing investors' interests [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since August, a total of 409 funds have announced the suspension of subscriptions or large subscriptions, indicating a significant trend in the market [4]. - Major fund companies like E Fund, Huatai-PB, and Southern Fund have implemented purchase limits on their high-performing products, reflecting a shift towards quality-driven growth rather than scale-driven growth [3][6]. Group 2: Reasons for Purchase Limits - The purchase limits help control fund size, preventing excessive inflows that could dilute returns and affect management efficiency [7]. - They also protect existing investors from short-term arbitrage and ensure that the interests of current holders are safeguarded [8]. - The measures are in response to regulatory requirements, promoting a dynamic balance between fund size and performance [9]. Group 3: Investor Implications - The direct impact of these limits is the restriction on large subscriptions, which may lead investors to seek alternative products [9]. - Investors are advised to maintain a rational perspective on fund returns, focusing on both beta and alpha returns, and to establish a more balanced asset allocation framework [10]. - The scarcity of high-performing funds due to purchase limits may drive investors to pursue other similar products, potentially leading to overheated market sentiment [10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the financial services industry, focusing on banking, insurance, and public funds in low-interest rate environments across Japan, the Eurozone, and the United States [1][3][6][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Asset Allocation Changes in Low-Interest Environments**: Financial institutions generally reduce loan allocations and increase holdings in bonds and cash deposits. For instance, Japanese banks significantly decreased loans post-financial crisis, while U.S. banks during the Great Depression also shifted towards bonds and cash [1][3][4][5]. - **Insurance Companies' Strategies**: Insurance firms tend to adopt conservative investment strategies, favoring high-rated bonds to ensure stable returns. In contrast, public funds actively adjust their portfolios to increase equity assets for higher returns [1][6][12]. - **Japanese Insurance Sector Adjustments**: Japanese insurance institutions increased their allocation to securities, particularly government and local bonds, in response to declining yields. The allocation of interest rate bonds rose from 4% to 49.7% between 1990 and 2012 [8][11]. - **Eurozone Insurance Institutions' Response**: Eurozone insurers increased their equity and bond allocations while reducing holdings in AAA-rated bonds, opting for lower-rated assets to enhance returns [12]. - **Public Fund Growth**: In low-interest environments, money market funds and long-term bond funds have seen rapid growth, with overseas public funds and passive index products performing well [1][21]. Additional Important Insights - **Banking Sector Characteristics**: The banking sector's main characteristic in low-interest environments is the reduction of loan allocations and an increase in bond holdings. For example, by the end of 2011, bonds accounted for 25.6% of Japanese banks' assets, up approximately 16 percentage points from 1997 [5][4]. - **Impact of Government Bond Issuance**: The Japanese government's large-scale issuance of bonds since the 1990s has led to a significant increase in bond allocations by insurance institutions, as corporate bond supply remained low due to regulatory constraints [9][10]. - **Trends in Fund Industry**: The fund industry has shown a trend towards higher foreign investment ratios, with Japanese public funds increasingly adopting passive index strategies since 2010 [15][17]. - **Adjustments in Asset Allocation**: In response to economic conditions, banks and insurance institutions adjust their asset allocations, with banks increasing credit allocations if the real estate market stabilizes, while insurance firms focus on increasing their bond allocations in downturns [2][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the strategic shifts in asset allocation among financial institutions in response to low-interest rate environments.

鹏华策略优选灵活配置混合型证券投资基 金 基金管理人：鹏华基金管理有限公司 基金托管人：中国工商银行股份有限公司 送出日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 鹏华策略优选混合 2025 年中期报告 基金管理人的董事会、董事保证本报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带的法律责任。本中期报告已经三分之二以 上独立董事签字同意，并由董事长签发。 基金托管人中国工商银行股份有限公司根据本基金合同规定，于 2025 年 08 月 27 日复核了本 报告中的财务指标、净值表现、利润分配情况、财务会计报告、投资组合报告等内容，保证复核 内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利。 基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现。投资有风险，投资者在作出投资决策前应仔细阅读本 基金的招募说明书及其更新。 本报告中财务资料未经审计。 本报告期自 2025 年 01 月 01 日起至 2025 年 06 月 30 日止。 第 2页 共 51页 鹏华策略优选混合 2025 年中期报告 第 3页 共 51 ...