Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure after the peak season, and different energy products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Investment strategies vary according to the specific conditions of each product [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. A double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options of SC2510 is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak shipping demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected third - batch quota release and cost weakening. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran [3] Asphalt - In August, the profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily, and refineries' willingness to switch to producing residue may rise. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack is considered strong recently [4] LPG - The overseas export market is loose, but the recovery of East Asian chemical procurement provides support. Import volume has increased in early August. The refinery gas price has room to decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially fulfilling the bearish expectations [5]

Group 1: Polyester Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report analyzes the price, cash - flow, and supply - demand situation of various products in the polyester industry. Different products have different trends and outlooks. For example, PX's supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and its supply - demand is expected to weaken; PTA's short - term supply - demand may improve, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term; ethylene glycol's short - term supply - demand is expected to improve; short - fiber's supply and demand have a small increase, and its price follows raw materials; bottle - chip's inventory is slowly decreasing, and its processing fee has support [2]. Summary by Directory - **Product Prices and Cash - flows**: On August 8th, prices of some products like DTY150/48 decreased by 0.3%, while others like POY150/48 remained unchanged. Cash - flows of some products also changed, such as POY150/48's cash - flow decreased by 28.6% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply increases in August, and with low terminal demand, its supply - demand weakens. PTA has new device production, but low processing fees lead to more unexpected device overhauls. Ethylene glycol has supply changes both at home and abroad, and demand is expected to increase as the off - season ends. Short - fiber's supply and demand slightly increase, and bottle - chip's inventory decreases due to production cuts [2]. Group 2: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report presents the price, supply - demand, and inventory situation of PVC and caustic soda. Caustic soda's supply is expected to increase, but there may be support from supply reduction due to enterprise overhauls. PVC's supply pressure is large with new capacity release, and downstream demand has no obvious improvement [7][12]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 8th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.4% to 4890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Caustic soda's downstream alumina price is stable, and supply is expected to increase. PVC's new capacity is released continuously, and downstream product enterprise's operating rates are low. Inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC has different changes, such as liquid caustic soda's East China factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.0% [7][12]. Group 3: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Crude oil prices are running weakly recently. The trading logic is mainly about geopolitical risks and supply - demand relaxation pressure. Geopolitical factors may affect supply, and macro - level factors and basic - level supply - demand also impact the market. The market is bearish, but the price stabilizes after a decline. Short - term observation is recommended [15]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 11th, Brent decreased by 0.57% to 66.21 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased by 0.67% to 63.45 dollars/barrel. Some spreads also changed, such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased by 12.73% [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors like the US - Russia cease - fire negotiation may increase supply expectations. Macro - level new tariffs and sanctions threats affect demand. OPEC +'s production increase and the end of the peak oil - using season strengthen the bearish sentiment [15]. Group 4: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In August, the supply of PP and PE increases due to less maintenance and new device production. Demand is at a low level currently, but there is potential for replenishment as the seasonal peak approaches. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [20]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, prices of futures contracts like L2601 decreased by 0.27%. Some spreads also changed, such as L2509 - 2601 decreased by 19.40% [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Supply pressure of PP and PE increases in August. Downstream operating rates are low, and inventory of enterprises and society has different degrees of increase [20]. Group 5: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of methanol accumulates significantly at ports this week. Domestic production is at a high level, and imports in August are still high. Downstream demand is weak due to low profits. 09 contract has a strong inventory - accumulation expectation, while 01 contract has expectations of seasonal peak and Iranian device shutdown [23]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, MA2601's closing price decreased by 0.88% to 2475 yuan/ton. Some spreads like MA91 spread increased by 15.60% [23]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, and port inventory increased by 14.48%. Operating rates of some upstream and downstream enterprises changed, such as Shanghai - domestic enterprise's operating rate increased by 2.28% [23]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the third quarter, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve, and port inventory may decrease. Short - term price has support, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's supply is high in the short - term, and its supply - demand pattern is weak, but the downward space is limited [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, the price of pure benzene's East - China spot decreased by 0.4% to 6125 yuan/ton, and styrene's East - China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7270 yuan/ton. Some spreads also changed, such as pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 1.1% [27]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1% to 16.30 million tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% to 15.90 million tons. Operating rates of some industries in the chain changed, such as the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.3% [27]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current oscillation of urea is due to the game between the positive factors of the Indian tender's unexpected price and export quota release and the agricultural demand gap. In the short - term, the bullish narrative dominates the market [54]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, the 05 - contract price of urea decreased by 0.50% to 1784 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract price decreased by 0.52% to 1728 yuan/ton. Some spreads and basis also changed [52]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Although some enterprises like Hualu Hengsheng are under maintenance, the daily output of urea is still at a high level. The demand impulse from the Indian tender and export policy cannot be falsified in the short - term [54].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: Market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the restocking intensity at the end of the month. The fundamental situation has weakened in the short term, with frequent regulatory actions from the exchange, so short - term risks should be vigilant. [1][40] -纯碱: The fundamental situation has not improved, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is significantly affected by macro - emotions, and subsequent changes in market sentiment should be monitored. [1][5] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash - **Price**: Spot prices remained stable this week, with the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remaining stable. Futures prices were weakly stable last week, with the main SA2509 contract closing at 1249 (-7), the 9 - 1 spread at - 83 (-6), and the basis of the main 09 contract at +95 (-9). [6][10] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 744,600 tons (+24,700, +3.46%), with light soda ash production at 321,200 tons (+9,900) and heavy soda ash production at 423,400 tons (+14,800). The operating rate was 85.41% (+5.14%). [5][16] - **Demand**: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%; the overall production - sales rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14%. Demand weakened slightly last week, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid - demand basis. Net exports decreased. [5][25] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8651 million tons (+69,300, +3.86%), with light soda ash inventory at 717,600 tons (+24,600) and heavy soda ash inventory at 114,750 tons (+44,700). [5][32] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of the dual - ton combined - soda process was +68.5 yuan/ton (-38), and the profit of the ammonia - soda process was +56.2 yuan/ton (-0.9), remaining basically flat overall. [5][37] 2. Glass - **Price**: Spot prices were stable with a slight decline last week. The main 2509 contract closed at 1063 (-39), the 9 - 1 spread was - 133 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +197 (-1). [40][41][48] - **Supply**: Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 159,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The production was 110.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%. The operating rate was 75.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [40][54] - **Demand**: As of the end of July, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 compared to the previous period. Downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate market recovery was weak, while the automobile production and sales situation in June was at a relatively high level in recent years. [40][63] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.95%. Inventory increased in all regions. [40][70] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +111.05 yuan/ton (-27.09); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was - 150.36 yuan/ton (+0); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was - 130.57 yuan/ton (-7.14). Industry profits were stable in the short term. [40][84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's capital goods exports amid global geopolitical risks and the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and ASEAN export restrictions on future export performance [1][2][3]. Export Performance - In July, China's export growth was slightly better than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in dollar terms, up from 5.9% in the previous month [9]. - The export growth to ASEAN and Latin America showed significant improvement, recording increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments ahead of the August tariff implementation [9]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions rebounded, with growth rates of 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [9]. Risks and Future Outlook - The article highlights that exports are expected to moderate, primarily due to the impact of the 232 tariffs and regulatory scrutiny on transshipments [2]. - The key risks include the potential for additional tariffs on exempt products and the enforcement of stricter transshipment regulations by Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries [2]. - The article suggests that the export of capital goods may exhibit medium-term resilience, driven by global trends of industrial backup and capacity transfer to emerging markets due to geopolitical tensions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown a strong upward trend, with significant increases in both London and COMEX markets, indicating heightened investor interest and market volatility [1][5]. Market Performance - As of August 8, the London spot gold price reached a high of $3409.04 per ounce, while COMEX gold peaked at $3534.10 per ounce [1]. - The COMEX gold price closed at $3497.0, reflecting a daily increase of $43.3 or 1.25% [2]. Market Trends - The gold market has experienced a surge, with prices surpassing $3370 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices exceeding 1000 yuan per gram, marking historical highs [5]. - Despite recent fluctuations, gold prices have shown resilience, rebounding quickly after sharp declines [5]. Volatility and Risk Factors - Short-term volatility has increased due to geopolitical conflicts and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with daily price swings reaching 3%-5% [8]. - Geopolitical risks have become a norm, with ongoing conflicts driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. Long-term Outlook - Over the past two years, gold prices have risen by over 87%, with forecasts suggesting potential prices between $3500 and $3700 per ounce in the next 12 months [9]. - The weakening of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have contributed to a favorable environment for gold investment [12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident, particularly due to power crises in South Africa affecting gold production, with global proven reserves expected to last approximately 20 years [13]. - Industrial demand for high-purity gold is projected to grow by 30% in 2025, driven by applications in semiconductors and photovoltaics [14]. Investment Strategies - Physical gold remains a preferred choice for value preservation, with investment bars and coins offering lower premiums for long-term holding [15]. - Gold ETFs provide a flexible and liquid investment option suitable for short-term trading [17]. - For small investors, paper gold and accumulation gold products allow for minimal investment starting from 1 gram [18]. Portfolio Diversification - Gold is recommended to constitute 5%-15% of an investment portfolio to hedge against volatility in equity and bond markets [19]. - Caution is advised regarding leveraged products like gold futures, which carry higher risks for ordinary investors [20]. Conclusion - The gold market in 2025 reflects broader geopolitical and monetary system changes, serving as a tool for individuals to combat inflation and protect wealth [21].

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Core Viewpoint - India continues to import crude oil from Russia despite U.S. tariff threats, highlighting the complexities of the global energy market influenced by geopolitical risks, trade policies, and supply-demand dynamics [1][3] Group 1: India's Energy Policy - India's energy policy is primarily influenced by the international oil market's supply conditions and the global economic environment, with energy security being a top priority [1] - The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the long-term stability of India-Russia relations, asserting that they should not be disrupted by third-party factors [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. President announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued procurement of Russian crude oil, reflecting the interplay between energy trade and international politics [1] - This tariff threat arises amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia, particularly in the context of the ongoing Ukraine ceasefire negotiations [1] Group 3: Changes in Oil Import Structure - India's crude oil import structure has significantly changed, with imports from Russia increasing from 68,000 barrels per day in early 2022 to a peak of 2.15 million barrels per day in May 2023 [1] - At one point, Russian supplies accounted for nearly 40% of India's crude oil imports, making Russia its largest supplier [1] - Given India's average daily crude oil consumption of approximately 5.5 million barrels, of which 88% is imported, this shift has a notable impact on the global crude oil trade landscape [1] Group 4: Economic Implications - The shift towards Russian oil has allowed India to reduce its import costs and alleviate energy price pressures domestically [3] - In the short term, this strategy may help stabilize India's energy supply and economic operations, but it could also lead to international trade friction and market volatility [3] - Global investors should monitor crude oil price trends influenced by geopolitical situations, tariff threats, and supply chain changes, as energy-related currencies and stock market sectors may be indirectly affected [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight oil prices declined, ending a three - day rally and correcting some risk premiums. Trump's extreme pressure may aim to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, with a weak intention to block Russian oil and limited impact on the crude oil market. The short - term impact of geopolitical risk events on the crude oil market is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals. This week, focus on the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and the subsequent reaction of the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面动态 - As of the close, the September - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 74 cents, closing at $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The September - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price fell 71 cents, closing at $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The night - session SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71%, at 528 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2.市场动态 - The EIA crude oil inventory increase in the US for the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, and the EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. In May, US oil production reached a record 13.49 million barrels per day, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in May both rose to the highest level since January [5]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. On July 31, the US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They will mainly discuss the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [5]. - Sources said that in the past week, Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats. It is necessary to focus on the shipping dynamics of Russian crude oil, as well as the changes in its in - transit crude oil and floating storage inventory. The pressure exerted by the US on Russia has begun to have an impact, but the extent and duration of this impact need further observation. Market concerns will support the crude oil market in the short term [5]. - The US core PCE inflation annual rate unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8% in June, while consumer spending almost stagnated. After the release of the June PCE indicators last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September further decreased, from nearly 70% to below 40%. If Trump wants to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, he must effectively control energy prices, especially oil prices [5]. 3.3.全球原油盘面价格及价差变动 - Provided price and spread data of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on July 31, 30, and 24, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes and differences between different contracts [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices exhibit a "policy market" characteristic, with spot gold prices fluctuating around $3,325 per ounce, down 1.2% from the beginning of the month, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with two members voting against, indicating a divergence in interest rate cut expectations [1] - Escalating Middle East tensions have not sustained the demand for gold as a safe haven, leading to frequent shifts of funds between gold and risk assets [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite short-term volatility, medium to long-term demand for gold remains strong, with domestic gold ETF sizes increasing by 173% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing 260 billion yuan [2] - The Huaan Yifu Gold ETF alone has nearly 60 billion yuan in assets, reflecting a growing trend of individual investors entering the gold market, with a 37% increase in online platform investments [2] - Small investors account for over 40% on compliant platforms like Jinsheng Precious Metals, driven by low entry barriers allowing investments starting from 0.01 lots [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy Variables - If the Federal Reserve signals a rate cut in September, lower real interest rates will reduce the cost of holding gold, historically leading to an 18% price increase within three months after the first rate cut [3] - Current Middle East conflicts are still categorized as "localized friction," but any escalation to full-scale war could push gold prices rapidly to $3,500 [3] - The 60-day moving average for COMEX gold futures at approximately $3,300 serves as a critical support level; a drop below this could trigger algorithmic selling [3][4] Group 4: Competitive Advantages of Jinsheng Precious Metals - The platform employs a three-tiered protection system of "bank custody + independent audit + risk reserve," ensuring complete separation of client and operational funds, with daily audits by PwC [6] - Jinsheng Precious Metals offers a low spread of $0.38 per ounce for London gold, saving over 30% compared to industry averages, which translates to more than 2,000 yuan in monthly savings for a single lot trade [7] - The platform operates under a dual trading schedule covering major global time zones, achieving market order execution speeds of ≤0.3 seconds and controlling slippage rates within 0.5% [8] Group 5: Investment Paradigm Shift - In the context of shifting Federal Reserve policies and normalized geopolitical risks, gold investment has evolved from a mere safe-haven asset to a "ballast" in asset allocation [9] - Jinsheng Precious Metals provides a comprehensive solution for investors, combining compliance, cost optimization, and technology to enhance trading opportunities, evidenced by an average profit increase of 18% for users utilizing smart take-profit features [9]

Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]