证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The central government emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in economic policies for the second half of the year [2][5] - Key areas of focus include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, as well as implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][5] - The government aims to effectively release domestic demand potential and implement actions to boost consumption, while also ensuring the stability of foreign trade and investment [2][5] Group 2: Structural Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - Monetary policy will increasingly focus on small and micro enterprises, with specific measures such as re-loans, targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and expansion of inclusive small and micro loan support tools [5][6] - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve funding efficiency, which is crucial for supporting local governments and ensuring basic livelihood protections [5][6] Group 3: Consumption and Service Sector Growth - The government aims to release domestic demand potential and cultivate new growth points in service consumption, with a focus on improving consumer confidence and expanding consumption demand [8][9] - Recent data shows a decline in consumer spending growth, indicating the need for further measures to stimulate consumption, particularly in the service sector [8][9] Group 4: Market Competition and Regulation - The meeting highlights the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus [11][13] - The government is committed to promoting a unified national market and addressing issues such as low-price competition and local protectionism to foster a fair business environment [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, leading to a focus on long-term consumption potential by consumer-listed companies [1] Group 1: Consumer Companies' Strategies - A number of consumer companies in the Shanghai market are planning to leverage policy support and the trend of consumption recovery to create diverse and integrated service consumption experiences [1] - Zhejiang Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism Co., Ltd. aims to drive service consumption growth through a combination of cultural IP, tourism, and technology, projecting a net profit of 90 million to 97 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.44% to 63.22% [3] - Huangshan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary and participate in bidding for state-owned land use rights to enhance its tourism product offerings, focusing on new market exploration and project development [3] Group 2: Innovation in Consumption Scenarios - Dongpeng Beverage Group reported a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [4] - The company has implemented various innovative measures to expand new consumption scenarios, including sponsoring major sports events to diversify its market reach [4] - Shanghai Bailian Group's collaboration with Bilibili for a themed event significantly boosted foot traffic and sales, with a 31% increase in sales during the event period [5]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain a stable and progressive approach to economic work in the second half of the year, ensuring policy continuity and flexibility to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus will be on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the people's livelihood [7][9] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, as consumer demand continues to be released and market supply improves [10][12] - Experts noted that service consumption is becoming a major direction for consumption upgrades, and the government aims to cultivate new growth points in this area to enhance people's quality of life and expand overall consumption [14][16] - The development of service consumption is crucial for meeting livelihood needs, upgrading the consumption industry, and creating new consumption scenarios, which will facilitate both domestic and international economic circulation [18]

尽管近几个交易日股价出现回调，但东方财富仍然入围了光大证券、国信证券、中泰证券3家券商的8 月"金股"名单。近期A股主要股指震荡走高，市场成交维持相对高位。中泰证券认为，对东方财富而 言，市场交投持续活跃将带动公司估值与业绩共振向上。 从券商8月"金股"名单看，大金重工、东鹏饮料、沪电股份、华友钴业、新易盛、中国化学、中芯国 际、卓易信息等8家公司均获得了两家券商的联合推荐，关注度相对较高，看好的券商包括财通证券、 光大证券、国信证券、华安证券、开源证券、中国银河、华龙证券、西部证券等。港股标的中，中国海 洋石油、泡泡玛特、中国宏桥等的投资价值获得券商看好。 回顾券商此前推荐的7月"金股"表现，Wind收录的35只券商金股指数中，万得开源证券金股指数7月表 现最好，累计涨幅达15.07%；万得平安证券金股指数、万得银河证券金股指数、万得招商证券金股指 数、万得长城证券金股指数、万得国元证券金股指数、万得华泰证券金股指数在7月均取得两位数涨 幅。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 券商8月"金股"名单近期陆续出炉。 据中国证券报·中证金牛座记者不完全统计，截至7月31日1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year, aiming for a successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The meeting emphasizes the need to maintain a stable and progressive work approach, ensuring policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus includes stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a continuous strengthening of the policy's orientation towards people's livelihoods [7] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, indicating that while expanding commodity consumption, new growth points in service consumption should be cultivated [10][12] - Experts note that service consumption is increasingly significant as living standards rise, and it is a primary direction for consumption upgrading, which aligns with the public's aspirations for a better life [14][16] - Service consumption plays a crucial role in meeting livelihood needs, promoting consumption industry upgrades, and creating new consumption scenarios, which is beneficial for achieving a virtuous cycle of internal and external circulation [18]

评 新 而 论 消费提质升级 我国超大规模市场意味着无限的 机遇和无穷的潜力，人民日益增 长的美好生活需要,则是消费提 质升级的不竭动力源泉。 全球第二大消费市场地位稳固，新能源车市场渗透率超过五成，动画电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》创造票房 神话，"中国游"的流量持续转化为"中国购"的增量……我国超大规模市场意味着无限的机遇和无穷的潜 力，人民日益增长的美好生活需要，则是消费提质升级的不竭动力源泉。 近日，商务部公布"十四五"期间消费成绩单，可以概括为"扩容""提质""焕新""开放"四个词。过去四 年，社会消费品零售总额年均增长5.5%，今年有望突破50万亿元；居民服务性消费支出年均增长 9.6％，占消费支出比重提升3.5个百分点，达到46.1%；新型消费蓬勃发展，新业态新场景丰富多样； 消费对经济增长的年均贡献率达到60%左右；海外更多优质商品服务进入中国的同时，广大入境游客也 感受到"中国购"的魅力。 "十四五"期间，我国人均国内生产总值处于1万美元到2万美元的区间，消费需求加速分化、消费结构加 快转变。在超大规模市场体量更大的基础上，品质消费走进千家万户，新型消费亮点纷呈，国内外市场 联动互促。人民群众的消费 ...

央视网消息：7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。专家表示，这次会议对于"十四五"圆满收 官，开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，指明了重要方向。 国家发展改革委国家信息中心研究员魏琪嘉表示，在稳企业、稳就业、对低收入群体的保障方面，要加大政策力度，进一步体现政策民生温 度，为整个发展创造一个良好的环境。 提振消费 大力发展服务消费 会议指出做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任 务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权表示，上半年，我国经济增长实现良好开局、平稳增长，这都得益于实施了更加积极有为的宏观政策。为了下 半年保持经济持续稳定增长，需要在政策方面保持持续性和稳定性。如果下半年会发生一些变化，跟上半年有不一样的地方，这种情况下就必 须要增加政策灵活性，要使得政策更加精准发力。 从宏观经济政策的着力点上来看，会议强调，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，宏观经济政策的民生导向不断强化。 2025年以来，居民消费需求持续释放，市场供给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese economy's performance in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP growth of 5.3%, and outlines the macroeconomic policies for the second half aimed at sustaining growth and addressing challenges [1][4]. Economic Growth and Policy Measures - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for continuous and timely macroeconomic policy adjustments, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that new significant measures may be introduced to stabilize growth, such as interest rate cuts, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, and enhancing special bond issuance [2][6]. Internal Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing internal demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption, particularly in services, which saw a 5.3% year-on-year growth in retail sales [12][13]. - The government plans to support consumption through special bonds and policies aimed at enhancing consumer environments and promoting new consumption models [12][13]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting called for maintaining a stable foreign trade and foreign investment environment, with measures to support export enterprises facing challenges due to external pressures [14][16]. - The article notes that China's goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with exports growing by 7.2% [17]. Risk Management and Debt - The meeting stressed the need to actively and prudently manage local government debt risks, prohibiting new hidden debts while promoting the development needed to mitigate these risks [9][10]. - The focus on high-quality urban renewal aims to prevent excessive supply and further debt risks in the real estate sector [8][9]. Capital Market Development - The meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, which is crucial for maintaining economic confidence and supporting new productive forces [10]. - Key reforms will focus on financial openness, investment reforms, and increasing long-term capital market participation [10].

央视网消息：7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。专家表示，这次会议对于"十四五"圆 满收官，开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，指明了重要方向。 会议指出做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目 标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：上半年我们的经济增长实现了良好的开局，平稳的增长，这都得益于我们实施了更加积极有为的宏观 政策。所以为了下半年要保持经济持续稳定增长，需要我们在政策方面要保持它的持续性和稳定性。下半年会发生一些变化，跟上半年有不一 样的地方，这种情况下就必须要增加政策的灵活性，要使得我们的政策更加精准发力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：我们的服务消费的占比越来越高，而且随着我们的生活水平的提高，服务消费是消费升级的主要的方 向，这种情况下，中央政治局的会议也提出，下半年我们在继续扩大商品消费的同时，要注重培育服务消费新的增长点。 专家表示，培育服务消费新增长点既能够改善民生，符合老百姓对美好生活的向往，同时又能够扩 ...