Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the strong stock market, the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September exceeds 95%, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - The price of Treasury bond futures fluctuates. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rallies. For arbitrage, pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509. For hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; monthly PPI has a - 0.20% month - on - month and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and 0.24% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, up 0.50% from the previous period with a 6.02% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, down 0.40% from the previous period with a - 0.80% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.78, down 0.28 with a - 0.29% change; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1817, down 0.009 with a - 0.13% change; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, up 0.00 with a 0.07% change; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 with a 0.54% change; R007 is 1.56, down 0.12 with a - 7.38% change; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.53, down 0.01 with a - 0.65% change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, down 0.01 with a - 0.65% change [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), spread between government - issued bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][16][18]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple charts are provided to show the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [32][28]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided to show the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [31][38]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TS main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [41][43][52]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TF main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [50][54][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the T main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [58][60][61]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TL main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [66][69][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has been rising recently due to three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend is strong, and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefits upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, capital inflows due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data lead to more entity liquidity flowing into the stock market. For stock index futures, a strategy of selling put options can be considered [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market this week. In the short term, the bond market is lack of directional drive and will mainly fluctuate, although the expected weak credit data in July may provide some support [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market continued to rise with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.34% with a trading volume of 1.91 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also had varying degrees of increase. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to be an important path to stabilize and increase inflation. The long - term, medium - term, and short - term logics for the recent stock market rise are analyzed, and a selling put options strategy is recommended [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year treasury bond futures contracts showed different trends. The central bank conducted 1146 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. The bond market is under pressure from the strong stock market and will mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all rose, with increases of 0.72%, 0.64%, 0.70%, and 0.47% respectively. For stock indices, the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also increased. For treasury bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL had different degrees of decline [3]. Market News - On August 11, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff suspension measures on China for another 90 days [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the basis trends of various stock indices [6][7][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts present the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18]. Exchange Rates - Charts display the trends of the US dollar to RMB central parity rate, euro to RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar to RMB, forward euro to RMB, US dollar index, euro to US dollar, British pound to US dollar, and US dollar to Japanese yen [21][22][23][25][26].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the liquidity and monetary policy framework in China, focusing on the broad money supply (M2) and its implications for the banking sector and the economy as a whole [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - As of April 2025, China's broad money supply (M2) reached 325 trillion yuan, which includes M1, time deposits, and personal deposits, reflecting the purchasing power of society [1][4]. - The legal reserve requirement ratio (RRR) determines the amount of reserves that commercial banks must freeze, impacting their excess reserves and liquidity management [6][14]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from the quantity of money supply to interest rates, with ongoing reforms to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2][23]. - The relationship between M2 and the macroeconomy has weakened due to an increase in time and personal deposits, leading to a decrease in the velocity of money and reduced consumer and investment behavior [19]. - The PBOC has restarted government bond trading operations to manage liquidity more effectively, especially as the room for further RRR cuts is limited [18]. Important but Overlooked Content - The liquidity analysis of broad money considers various channels, including loan-derived deposits and the phenomenon of deposit outflows when residents purchase stocks or bonds, which do not count towards M2 [13]. - The phenomenon of "deposit disintermediation" is becoming more pronounced, with residents increasingly investing in low-risk financial products, which poses challenges for liquidity management in banks and the central bank [20][21]. - The behavior of bond fund managers can significantly impact market liquidity due to their similar investment strategies and regulatory requirements, leading to synchronized actions that affect the overall financial system [22]. - The current LPR reform is still evolving and aims to enhance the loan pricing mechanism, increasing transparency and market responsiveness [26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of China's monetary policy and its implications for the banking sector and the broader economy.

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 地方债隐含增值税率怎么看及后续投资策略 2025 年 08 月 12 日 ➢ 货币政策与流动性观点 政治局会议在货币政策表述上删除了"适时降准降息"有关内容，与当前经济状 态并不急需货币政策刺激有关，预计后续降息会更为克制，不过年内降准依然可 期。8 月 14 日"取消对债券回购的质押券进行冻结"的征求意见稿到期，预计 央行会出台正式稿件，这个规定的调整有利于疏通央行国债买卖的机制，为后续 重启国债买卖奠定基础，因为当前央行把国债买卖定性为流动性工具而非价格工 具，质押券解冻后可流动的国债规模会明显加大，能够降低央行国债买卖对国债 价格的影响。 8 月买断式到期 9000 亿元（4000 亿元 3M+5000 亿元 6M），8 日央行已经操 作了 7000 亿元 3M 买断式，预计月内还有一次 6M 的买断式操作，本月同业存 单到期规模超过 3 万亿元，买断式能够稳定中期流动性预期。本周资金面的扰动 因素有：①7DOMO 到期规模 11267 亿元，依然大幅高于季节性，②同业存单 到期规模大幅上升至 9065 亿元，有一定续发压力，③8 月 15 日为纳税申报截 止日。总体而言，资 ...

WLFI 币股 $ALTS 每股 7.5 的成本，募的这部分 WLFI 价格为 0.2盘前流动性太差，被套在 11u，仔细一看不对劲怎么越买越低，不过现在 9u 距离机构成本价仅 +20%这轮踩中 ETH 大趋势的楼老板来救我了，girls help girls https://t.co/shcAewwWwQJoy Lou (@Joylou1209):买了一点dynx和alts。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **automobile industry**, and **equity markets** in China, particularly focusing on the implications of the **anti-involution policy** and its effects on various sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The Chinese economy is expected to slow down to a growth rate of **4.5%** in the second half of the year, with deflationary pressures likely to persist into the first half of next year, and the GDP deflator projected at around **-0.9%** [2][6][29]. 2. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to improve corporate return on equity (ROE) by addressing overcapacity and price pressures, although its short-term effects are limited. The long-term outlook is more positive as it encourages investment in core technological innovations [2][3][7][23][24]. 3. **Foreign Investment Trends**: There is a continued inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese market, although actively managed public funds are still experiencing net outflows. The interest in Chinese equities is expected to rise as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle and the dollar weakens [2][19]. 4. **Stock Market Dynamics**: The disparity in performance between Hong Kong and A-shares is notable, with Hong Kong benefiting from high-quality sectors and active IPO markets. A-shares are recommended for increased allocation due to their attractive valuations and responsiveness to policy changes [2][14][16][15]. 5. **Automobile Industry Challenges**: The anti-involution policy is expected to suppress price-cutting strategies among car manufacturers, leading to a focus on supply chain optimization and core technology investment. However, short-term profitability may be limited [3][24][25]. 6. **Supply-Side Reforms**: The automobile sector is undergoing supply-side reforms aimed at eliminating inefficient capacity and optimizing production configurations, with a focus on electric and smart vehicles [25][26]. 7. **Consumer Behavior and Financial Assets**: There is a significant shift in household financial asset allocation towards equities, driven by low interest rates and a strong stock market performance, which supports a bullish market sentiment [6][42]. 8. **Inflation and Deflation Concerns**: The current economic narrative indicates a need to address structural issues causing deflation, with a focus on market-oriented reforms to optimize resource allocation and improve consumer demand [34][35]. 9. **Impact of New Social Security Regulations**: The new social security regulations, effective September 1, will impose significant financial burdens on small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, potentially affecting employment and the business environment in the short term [36]. 10. **Export Outlook**: China's export growth is expected to decline sharply, with projections of around **0%** growth in the second half of the year, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and global trade dynamics [37][38]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-Term Market Sentiment**: Despite short-term challenges, there is a growing recognition of the resilience and innovative capabilities of Chinese enterprises among international investors [10][11][12]. 2. **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory landscape is evolving to address issues of fair competition and prevent excessive price wars, particularly in the e-commerce and delivery sectors [43][44][46]. 3. **Consumer and Employment Effects**: The competitive landscape, while leading to internal market pressures, has also stimulated consumer demand and increased employment opportunities in the service sector, particularly for gig workers [46]. 4. **Future Economic Risks**: Key risks include the effectiveness of the anti-involution policy, the impact of new social security regulations, and uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations, which could affect overall economic stability [29][38][39].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market, particularly the performance of major technology companies, as well as the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market has shown strong performance this year, with the Nasdaq index rebounding over 30% and leading technology stocks performing exceptionally well, benefiting from strong earnings and capital expenditures [1][3] - The current risk premium in the U.S. stock market is extremely low, with the S&P 500 close to 0 and the Nasdaq even negative, raising questions about the traditional methods of calculating risk premiums [1][4] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen its margin trading balance exceed 2 trillion, indicating increased market confidence but also potential volatility risks due to high leverage [1][6][31] - The influx of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market is providing support, while small-cap and thematic stocks in the A-share market are performing actively [2] Valuation Discrepancies Between China and the U.S. - There is a significant valuation gap between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. having a higher risk-free rate but still maintaining high valuations, contrary to traditional logic [1][8] - The calculation methods for risk-free rates may be flawed, leading to misleading conclusions about risk premiums [1][9] Capital Expenditure Trends - Major U.S. technology companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have reported strong second-quarter earnings, with significant increases in capital expenditures driven by demand for AI and cloud computing [38][39][41] - The demand for new-generation data centers is growing, necessitating upgrades to existing infrastructure to meet low-latency and high-bandwidth requirements [40] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is optimistic, supported by the increase in margin trading and the performance of major tech stocks, but caution is advised regarding potential corrections [6][31][37] - The outlook for the A-share market is positive, with expectations of a structural market in the first half of the year and a potential index market in the second half, driven by improved earnings and liquidity conditions [37] Global Asset Scarcity - The global asset scarcity is influencing expectations for U.S. stock valuations, as there are limited alternatives to major U.S. companies, which are expected to maintain low risk premiums as long as their performance remains strong [14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The importance of relative interest rates is highlighted, as they provide a more accurate reflection of the relationship between costs and returns, particularly in the context of the U.S. and Chinese real estate markets [11] - The structural differentiation within the U.S. stock market, where leading companies enjoy global premiums, is stabilizing overall market valuations despite weaker performances in smaller stocks [13] - The discussion on the H-share premium and its implications for the Hong Kong market indicates that differences in investor risk compensation requirements can lead to price discrepancies, which are influenced by market mechanisms and regulations [17][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future outlooks for both the U.S. and A-share markets.

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The aluminum production capacity utilization rate reached a new high of 98.4% in July, the highest level since 2012 [3] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in key metrics, with significant drops in new construction and sales areas [23][76] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July, down 6.16% month-on-month [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hit a yearly low in late July [2] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points [42] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area for real estate was -20% for the first half of 2025 [23] Industrial Products Chain - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for China was 47.10% in July, down 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1200.73, down 2.56% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.23%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.21% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, supported by government policies [5] - Caution is advised regarding potential volatility in futures prices, particularly in coking coal [5]

Group 1 - June liquidity was unexpectedly stable and loose, with the average DR001 at 1.39%, down 11bps from May, and 14 out of 20 working days below the policy rate [2][4] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted two unexpected reverse repos in June, totaling 10,000 billion yuan, to stabilize the market ahead of significant bond issuances [2][3] - The liquidity situation in June was supported by the arrival of 520 billion yuan in capital injections from four major banks, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the yuan faced appreciation pressure [3][10] Group 2 - July maintained a loose liquidity stance, with the average DR001 remaining at 1.39%, but experienced significant volatility, with a range of 34bps [16][17] - The liquidity tightening in mid-July was attributed to tax payment periods and market concerns about the PBOC's stance, which were alleviated by a neutral to friendly tone from the PBOC [16][18] - The bond market's performance influenced liquidity, with a notable adjustment in the bond market during the week of July 21-25, leading to a temporary tightening of liquidity [18][21] Group 3 - August is expected to see a return to stable and loose liquidity, supported by significant government bond net supply, with estimated net financing of 1.47 trillion yuan [24][25] - The PBOC's decision to reinstate value-added tax on new bond interest income is seen as a potential negative for new bond pricing, emphasizing the importance of managing issuance costs [25][26] - The potential for the PBOC to resume bond purchases in August is being closely monitored, with several conditions indicating a possibility for such actions [32][33]

Group 1 - The core driving force of the current bull market is being questioned, whether it is based on fundamentals or valuations [5][20] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a stable inflation environment [3][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting a positive feedback effect from consumption policies [3][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis of companies like Kweichow Moutai and Yangtze Power indicates that valuation-driven performance often outweighs fundamental performance over the years [6][8] - The stock price performance of Kweichow Moutai shows that valuation contributed in 13 out of 23 years, while performance only contributed in 5 years [6][7] - For Yangtze Power, valuation also played a significant role, with valuation-driven years outnumbering performance-driven years [8][10] Group 3 - The A-share market's core driving force is predominantly valuation, with significant liquidity expected to continue supporting the market [11][15] - The monthly trading volume in the A-share market has shown substantial differences, with recent averages exceeding 1.68 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [17][18] - The current total market value to GDP ratio stands at 80.92%, suggesting room for growth in the market [22]