杜明表示，"因故"条款从未被挑战过，是一个法律黑洞。 美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的持续施压再次引发市场动荡，并引发人们对未来会发生什么的各 种猜测。 可以肯定的是，若成真，此举在美国历史上尚属首次，可能会引发具有里程碑意义的诉讼，该诉讼将牵 动白宫和华尔街。 此言暗指美联储总部翻新工程的成本超支问题。特朗普及其盟友一直将此作为解雇鲍威尔的依据之一。 当地时间16日，有报道称特朗普预计将很快对鲍威尔采取行动，后者因未听从其降低利率的呼吁而成为 特朗普的攻击目标。 不过，特朗普对这些报道予以反驳，称鲍威尔的解职"极不可能，除非他因'欺诈'而不得不离开"。 根据《联邦储备法》第10条，美联储理事会成员可以"因故"被解职。 而成本超支是否构成此类不当行为，将是法院需要裁决的新问题。 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示，所 谓"因故"这类条款的设立，主要目的是保护美联储职位的独立性，不能行政部门看美联储官员不满意就 能任意解雇，而"因故"可以届时由法院再从严解释，例如滥用职权或贪赃枉法等。 届时，本着"谁主张，谁举证原则"，需要"特朗普方面举证。"杜明补充道。 ...

隔夜，围绕美国总统特朗普可能解雇联储局主席鲍威尔的传闻，金融市场上演了一场短暂而剧烈的压力测试。 这场风波从传言四起到特朗普出面否认，仅持续了不到一小时，却足以一窥若美联储独立性遭到挑战，市场将会如何反应。 华尔街见闻稍早前提到，周三，有白宫官员透露特朗普可能很快免职鲍威尔，此后报道称，鲍威尔周三将被面谈，特朗普已起草解雇信函。 消息传出后，美股、美元迅速下跌，短期国债则因投资者押注新任主席将迎合总统意愿降息而上涨，黄金、比特币亦走高。 一些分析师认为，市场的反应可能让政府意识到，解雇鲍威尔并非经济和市场的万能药。但也有观察人士警告，市场在特朗普否认前的表现并不是那么糟糕， 可能鼓励他未来再迈一步，市场可接受窗口已被推得更宽——对投资者而言，这是更糟情境的开始。 是警醒还是鼓励？对市场反应的两种解读 市场对特朗普解雇鲍威尔传言的反应虽然相对克制，但仍显示出投资者的深层担忧。 盘中，两年期美债收益率下降多达8个基点，10年期美债收益率下跌5个基点。彭博美元现货指数从上涨0.2%转为下跌0.7%，标普500指数从早盘上涨0.3%转 为下跌0.7%。 不到一小时后，特朗普否认了这一可能性，称还不打算将美联储主席鲍威 ...

【导读】野村全球宏观主管Rob Subbaraman：美国滞胀风险或再现 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管Rob Subbaraman（苏博文）日前接受媒体采访时表 示，美国经济面临滞胀压力，通胀可能上升，下半年经济增长将放缓。鉴于通胀预期，美联储在降息问 题上将保持谨慎，降息时点可能晚于市场预期，且幅度也可能较市场预期更小。 美国滞胀风险或重现 在苏博文看来，导致美国通胀上升的主要原因有三： 首先，关税影响。目前关税对通胀的影响尚未完全显现，这主要是因为美国企业在第一季度大幅提前进 口以规避高关税，形成了高库存。然而，一旦库存耗尽，企业将不得不重新开始进口，届时关税成本很 可能被转嫁给消费者。 其次，移民政策。美国收紧边境管控并驱逐非法移民，导致建筑、农业、老年人护理和儿童保育等严重 依赖移民劳动力的关键行业出现劳动力短缺。这可能推高工资水平，进而引发通胀压力。 最后，适度扩张的财政政策。随着中期选举临近，预计财政政策将在未来12个月内为GDP增长贡献0.4 到0.5个百分点，这会增加通胀风险。 据野村预测，美国经济增长预计将低于趋势水平，今年和明年美国GDP增长率为1.3%和1.2%。 通胀上 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is heavily influenced by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is considered a more accurate measure of inflation compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is particularly favored by the Federal Reserve as it is seen as the best predictor of future inflation [1] - Economists predict that the core PCE report to be released on July 31 will show an increase of 0.2% to 0.3%, which may not be low enough to convince most Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - The overall PCE inflation rate is also expected to rise by approximately 0.3%, with the annual increase potentially reaching 2.6% in June, up from 2.3% the previous month and 2.1% after the pandemic low [3] - The rising inflation trend is partially attributed to the tariff policies of the Trump administration [3] - Despite pressure from the White House, most Federal Reserve voting members are inclined to maintain current interest rates, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year if inflation threats diminish and the job market shows signs of weakness [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock, currency, and bond markets experienced significant declines due to President Trump's consideration of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump later stated he does not intend to do so [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's initial comments about potentially dismissing Powell, major U.S. stock indices fell, the dollar index dropped, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [5]. - After Trump denied the reports and stated that he does not plan to take action against Powell, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the major stock indices closed higher, although the dollar index slightly decreased [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Several leaders in the U.S. banking sector publicly emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve for the stability of the U.S. economy and financial system [6]. - Trump's discussions about Powell's potential dismissal included references to past issues, such as the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which has been criticized for alleged excessive spending [8][9]. Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017 and reappointed under President Biden, is expected to complete his term, which ends on May 15 of the following year [15]. - Trump has criticized the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, suggesting it should be lowered, while Powell has indicated that the Fed will take a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [15][16].

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月17日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 776.28 | -0.03% | 375362 | 203084 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，7月17日上海黄金现货价格报价772.80元/克，相较于期货主力价格（776.28元/克）贴水3.48 元/克。 特朗普政府动向：特朗普拟解雇鲍威尔的消息致美国股债汇三杀，特朗普否认后市场随即回稳。 美国6月PPI年率2.3%，预期2.5%，前值由2.60%修正为2.7%。美国6月PPI月率0%，预期0.20%，前值由 0.10%修正为0.3%。美国6月核心PPI年率2.6%，预期2.7%，前值3.00%。美国6月核心PPI月率0%，预期 0.20%，前值由0.10%修正为0.4%。 美联储褐皮书：经济前景偏中性至略偏悲观。制造业活动小幅下降，企业招聘保持谨慎。 美联储观察：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.9%，降息25个基点的概率为4.1%。美联储9月维持利 率不变的概率为43. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises. Short - term domestic macro expectations strengthen, and the market trading focus may gradually shift to trading strong reality and strong expectations. With the decline in foreign ore shipments and short - term high - level decline in arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and demand remaining at a relatively high level, the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether hot metal production rebounds unexpectedly and policy increments from the Politburo meeting [3] - The price will fluctuate strongly in a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is 760 yuan/ton - 790 yuan/ton, and the price range of the outer - market FE08 contract is 99 - 105 US dollars/ton [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Logic - Rio Tinto released its second - quarter report yesterday, with a year - on - year increase of 5.36% in production and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53% in sales. Its shipping completion rate is low, and the expectation of reaching the lower limit of the annual target remains unchanged, with the shipping volume expectation revised down compared to the beginning of the year. The market has gradually accepted Trump's TACO deal, the marginal impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk preference has become more positive, boosting the valuation of commodities. Domestic monetary and fiscal policies have taken effect in advance, and there are still strong expectations for incremental policies, which have a positive impact on iron ore prices [1] Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. After the end - of - fiscal - year volume rush of Australian BHP and FMG mines, they entered the maintenance period in early July, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. Short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the outer - market price to 100 US dollars/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [1] Demand - The domestic daily average hot metal output has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot metal output at 239.81 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.04). But the current profitability rate of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Coupled with the full - scale deep losses of short - process steelmaking and the still - high cost - effectiveness of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the slight decline in demand has a weak impact on prices [1] Inventory - Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices recently, steel mills have replenished their stocks to some extent, and their imported ore inventory has increased month - on - month. As the arrivals have continued to decline month - on - month, port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the overall inventory will gradually accumulate slightly later, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [2]

说到关税，这简直是鲍威尔的噩梦。特朗普最近对全球加征的关税，就像往经济锅里倒辣椒面。短期内刺激了部分行业，但长期来看，企业要么涨价转嫁成 本，要么自己消化利润。6月份的数据显示，服装、家居用品价格已经开始上涨，关税这把火已经烧到了美国老百姓的菜篮子。 需要重点一说的是，如果特朗普继续加码，2026年美国通胀可能冲到5%以上，到时候经济可能陷入"滞胀"。物价涨工资不涨，这可比单纯的通胀可怕多 了。 据路透社7月16日报道，美国总统特朗普16日说，他并未计划解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，但保留了解雇鲍威尔的可能，并再次批评鲍威尔没有降低利率。 那么问题来了，为什么鲍威尔就是不愿意配合特朗普的降息计划呢？其实并非鲍威尔有意与特朗普敌对，而是当前一系列数据，并不支持美联储降息。 朗普对美联储的鲍威尔不满意，也不是一天两天的事情了！如果特朗普要是真的有权力让鲍威尔走人，又何至于磨蹭到今天？ 鲍威尔很糟糕，没有做好本职工作。7月16日，特朗普在白宫椭圆办公室的记者会上再次将矛头对准美联储主席鲍威尔。这已是这位共和党总统本月第三次 公开抨击美联储掌门人，距离其上次威胁"很快解雇鲍威尔"仅过去72小时。 为啥非要动鲍威尔？白宫经济顾 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普对鲍威尔持续施加的压力再次搅动市场，引发各界对这位四面楚歌 的美联储主席若遭解职后局势的猜测。 此举在美国史上尚无先例，几乎注定会引发一场牵动华盛顿与华尔街的标志性诉讼，并最终由美国最高 法院裁决。 7月16日的最新动荡源于媒体报道称特朗普拟对鲍威尔采取行动。这位美联储主席因无视特朗普的降息 呼吁长期遭其针对。特朗普随即否认报道，称鲍威尔被撤职"可能性极低，除非他因'欺诈'必须离 职"——此处指向美联储总部装修超支问题。特朗普及其盟友正聚焦此事，试图以此作为"正当理由"解 雇鲍威尔。根据《联邦储备法》第10条规定，美联储理事会成员(含主席)可因"正当理由"被免职。 装修超支是否构成免职理由将成为司法新命题。 如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔，后续可能如何发展? 案件关键争议点是什么? 案件核心将取决于特朗普的指控理由。如果特朗普以"正当理由"指控鲍威尔管理翻修工程不善，案件可 能聚焦于项目细节及超支决策责任人。 法律界对"正当理由"的界定通常包含三种情形：效率低下、玩忽职守、职务不当行为。但一个多世纪前 国会提出的这些术语至今无明确定义。法官需根据双方论证，判定鲍威尔在工程超支中的角色是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth slowing down in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve is likely to be cautious regarding interest rate cuts, which may occur later and be smaller than market expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Rising Inflation - The impact of tariffs is not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported significantly in the first quarter to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventory levels. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will need to import again, potentially passing on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - Stricter immigration policies have led to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may drive up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [4]. - Moderate fiscal policies are expected to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [5]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the 2017 temporary personal income tax cuts permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade. This level of fiscal stimulus is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [8]. - The U.S. government debt has reached about 100% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable. The buyer structure of U.S. debt has shifted, with foreign central banks reducing their purchases, leading to increased volatility in bond yields [8]. - Long-term solutions to the debt issue may require fiscal consolidation, which could involve spending cuts, tax increases, or new tax sources. Alternatively, forced purchases of more government bonds or quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Outside the U.S., other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [9]. - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit will constrain its performance [9]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates could lead to rising inflation, causing foreign investors to lose confidence in U.S. assets, which may result in higher long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar [11]. - The possibility of appointing a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" by Trump could create additional uncertainty in monetary policy, complicating the current Fed Chair Powell's role and the FOMC's decision-making process [11].