Group 1 - U.S. stock markets experienced a rally, with all three major indices closing higher; the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reached all-time closing highs [3] - Intel shares surged by 10.8% following a positive meeting between CEO Pat Gelsinger and former President Trump, who praised the investment as "very successful" [5] - Tesla rose over 2%, while Meta increased by more than 1%; Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon saw slight gains, while Netflix and Nvidia experienced minor declines [5] Group 2 - International gold and silver prices saw significant increases, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.29% to $4,518 per ounce, marking a weekly gain of 4.34%; COMEX silver futures jumped 5.92%, with a weekly increase of 12.07% [7] - International crude oil futures also rose, with WTI crude oil futures up 2.35% and Brent crude oil futures up 2.18% [9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report indicated a slower but stable labor market, with employment increasing by 50,000, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts later this year [9] Group 3 - Citigroup forecasts the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in March, July, and September, a shift from previous expectations of cuts in January, March, and September [10] - Morgan Stanley anticipates rate cuts of 25 basis points in June and September, revising earlier predictions of cuts in January and April [11] - The U.S. Supreme Court's potential ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is under scrutiny, which could impact trade policy and national fiscal conditions [11]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices recorded gains, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high, closing up 1.57% for the week [2] - On Friday, the S&P 500 index rose by 44.82 points, or 0.65%, closing at 6966.28 points, with an intraday high of 6978.36 points [2] - The Dow Jones increased by 237.96 points, or 0.48%, closing at 49504.07 points, while the Nasdaq rose by 191.33 points, or 0.81%, closing at 23671.35 points [2] Employment Data - In December, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, which was below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% [4] - The labor market is described as being in a "no hiring, no firing" mode, indicating a cautious approach from employers due to concerns over import tariffs and AI investments [4] - The report suggests that the labor market has lost significant momentum, attributed to aggressive trade and immigration policies from the previous administration [4] Construction Industry - U.S. homebuilders are experiencing low confidence, with new housing starts in October dropping to the lowest level since the pandemic began, down 4.6% to an annualized rate of 1.25 million units [5] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported a builder confidence index of 39, indicating a pessimistic outlook as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, as indicated by the latest employment report showing moderate job growth and a low recruitment environment [7] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below 6% for the first time in years, settling at 5.99%, which is the lowest since February 2023 [7] Individual Company News - Amazon plans to open a large supermarket in the Chicago area, covering 229,000 square feet, marking its entry into the physical retail space [8] - Chevron may see an annual revenue increase of $700 million from oil production in Venezuela, as it is currently the only U.S. oil giant operating there [8]

Group 1 - Trump indicated that the U.S. government may shut down again on January 30 [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court announced it will not rule on the Trump administration's tariff case on January 9 [2] - The Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that inflation remains a major challenge for the U.S. economy, significantly above the 2% target, requiring focused efforts to reduce it [3] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in March, July, and September, revising earlier predictions of cuts in January, March, and September [4] - Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates by 25 basis points in June and September, changing from previous expectations of cuts in January and April [5] Group 3 - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects a GDP growth rate of 5.1% for the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a prior estimate of 5.4% [6] - The European Exchange announced a delay in the launch of commodity futures evening trading from February 2 to April 13 [7] Group 4 - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.81% (weekly gain of 1.88%), S&P 500 up 0.65% (weekly gain of 1.57%), and Dow Jones up 0.48% (weekly gain of 2.32%), with both Dow and S&P 500 reaching record closing highs [8] - Intel surged over 10%, marking its largest single-day gain since September and reaching a new high since March 2024 [8] - Apple saw a slight increase, ending a seven-day losing streak [8] - Major European stock indices also rose, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.52% [8] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.28% to $4,517.9 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 4.34% [9] - COMEX silver futures increased by 5.92% to $79.595 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 12.07% [9] - International crude oil futures settled over 2% higher, with WTI crude oil futures for February up 2.35% (weekly gain of 3.14%) and Brent crude oil futures for March up 2.18% (weekly gain of 4.26%) [10] Group 6 - OpenAI and SoftBank invested $1 billion in their partner SB Energy [11] - Three U.S. senators called for Apple and Google to remove X and Grok from their app stores [12] - The usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement stood at $3.28 billion on Friday [13]

Core Viewpoint - The latest employment data indicates moderate job growth and a continued weak hiring environment, with employers adding 50,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.4% [1] Group 1: Employment Data - Employers added 50,000 jobs last month, reflecting a moderate employment growth environment [1] - The unemployment rate has slightly decreased to 4.4%, indicating a small improvement in the labor market [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve official Barkin emphasized the need to monitor the balance between moderate job growth and labor supply growth [1] - Barkin noted that inflation has remained above the target level for nearly five years, highlighting ongoing concerns despite improvements compared to two or three years ago [1] - The recent increase in unemployment and slow job growth are areas that require close attention from Federal Reserve decision-makers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment growth in December fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, leading to the weakest annual employment growth since the pandemic began [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that October's non-farm employment was revised from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, and November's from an increase of 64,000 to an increase of 56,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 76,000 jobs for November and December combined [3]. - For the entire year, U.S. non-farm employment increased by 584,000, marking the weakest annual growth since the sharp decline of 9.2 million jobs in 2020 due to the pandemic [3]. - The three-month moving average of employment data has entered negative territory, indicating a significant decline in labor market momentum [1][4]. Unemployment Rate Insights - Despite the disappointing employment data, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, which was better than the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [9]. - The decline in the unemployment rate is partly attributed to a shrinking labor force participation rate, suggesting that some unemployed individuals have exited the labor market entirely [3]. Sector-Specific Employment Trends - Private sector employment growth remains weak, with manufacturing jobs continuing to decline. The healthcare sector added 21,000 jobs, although this is below the average monthly increase of 34,000 jobs seen last year [5]. - Analysts predict that in 2025, private sector employers will add an average of 61,000 jobs per month, the weakest level of growth since 2003 without an economic recession [5]. Wage Growth Analysis - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with the previous value revised to 0.2%. Over the past 12 months, wages have grown by 3.8%, outpacing inflation by approximately 1 percentage point [7]. Interest Rate Expectations - The report has dispelled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January, as the decline in the unemployment rate is seen as a key factor supporting the Fed's patience [8]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in January is currently viewed as zero, despite the weak employment data and downward revisions [2][8].

Group 1 - The core issue in Bosnia is the continuous rise in prices of food, energy, and public services, which outpaces wage growth, leading to a decline in consumers' purchasing power [1] - The Republic of Srpska has announced a price increase for water by approximately 7 marks and for garbage collection by 4 marks, with higher electricity prices set to take effect in February [1] - In the Federation of Bosnia, electricity prices were adjusted last year, and the price of eggs has increased by 2 marks, while infant formula has been removed from the list of price-controlled items due to rising procurement costs [1] Group 2 - Despite 63 basic food and hygiene items being subject to price controls, prices can still fluctuate based on market conditions, leading consumers to sometimes forgo purchasing essential goods [2] - Although pensions are set to increase by 17.6% and the minimum wage will rise by 27 marks, inflation effectively negates these increases, leaving household budgets under pressure [2] - The increase in minimum personal income may further drive up prices unless the government reduces taxes, as producers are likely to pass on additional costs to consumers [2]

Inflation Data Summary - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2023[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, better than the same period last year[1] PPI Insights - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a larger growth compared to the previous month[2] - Year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline is narrowing compared to last month[2] Food and Energy Prices - December food CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[5] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 8.2%, with transportation fuel prices down 1.1% month-on-month[5] Core CPI and Rental Prices - Core CPI remained stable year-on-year at 1.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[5] - Rental prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a further widening of the decline[5] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter shows a rebound in CPI and PPI growth, suggesting a potential increase in nominal GDP growth[2] - Inflation and nominal GDP growth trends are expected to continue into 2026[2]

Inflation Data Summary - December 2025 CPI year-on-year increased to 0.8%, matching expectations and up from 0.7% in the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, a significant improvement from -0.1% in the prior month, marking the largest increase for December since 2021[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[1] Core CPI Analysis - Core CPI has shown resilience, supported mainly by industrial consumer goods, maintaining a 1.2% increase for four consecutive months[2] - Prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Notable contributors include household appliances (1.4% increase), other goods and services (2.8% increase), and communication tools (3.0% increase) in December[2] Food Price Trends - Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to the CPI, slightly above the 2021-2024 average of 0.1%[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant increases of 0.8% and 2.6%, respectively, while pork prices continued to decline by 1.2%[3] - As of January 8, 2026, pork wholesale prices have risen by 1.9% compared to December 2025, indicating potential stabilization[3] Housing and Energy Impact - Housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, negatively impacting CPI due to its high weight of approximately 22%[4] - Fuel prices for transportation fell by 1.1%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point decrease in CPI[4] PPI Insights - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in industrial prices after a low period[4] - The mining sector saw a 0.8% increase, while raw materials rose by 0.6%, marking a 19-month high[5] - The overall PPI remains under pressure from declining oil prices, with the oil and gas extraction sector experiencing a 1.3% drop[6] Market Implications - Current inflation levels are moderate, suggesting no immediate constraints on "loose monetary policy" but limiting the downward space for long-term interest rates[8] - Industrial price recovery is a positive signal for improving profit expectations, although a broad-based price increase has not yet materialized[8] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy could arise from economic slowdowns or changes in overseas monetary policies[9] - Liquidity may also experience unexpected changes if domestic economic data continues to exceed expectations[9]

分析指出，该数据未剔除价格因素影响。同期，意大利11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨1.1%，意 味着实际零售销售增长可能极为有限，甚至接近停滞。名义上的消费扩张在很大程度上被通胀所抵消， 家庭实际购买力提升空间受限。 从结构来看，非食品类商品销售表现略强于食品类。11月非食品类零售销售环比增长0.7%，而食品类 增长0.5%，显示在价格压力下，消费者对非必需消费品的需求仍具一定韧性，或反映服务与耐用品相 关支出有所恢复。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月9日电 意大利国家统计局（ISTAT）最新数据显示，2025年11月，意大利季调后零售销 售环比增长0.5%，与10月增幅持平，连续第二个月实现正增长。未经季节调整的同比数据显示，11月 零售销售同比增长1.3%，增幅亦与前月一致，表明名义消费支出保持稳定扩张态势。 尽管面临通胀和实际收入增长乏力的挑战，零售销售连续两个月的环比上升表明意大利国内消费活动仍 具备基础支撑，对2025年四季度经济增长构成一定积极因素。 展望未来，消费可持续性将高度依赖于实际可支配收入的变化以及通胀走势。若工资增长未能跟上物价 涨幅，或能源与食品价格再度上行，当前的消费动能恐难 ...

CPI Insights - In December, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and rose by 0.8% year-on-year (previous value: 0.7%) [1] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and maintained a year-on-year growth of 1.2% for four consecutive months [1] - The main driver for the food CPI was the seasonal increase in fresh fruit prices, while fresh vegetable prices saw a significant decrease in growth [5] PPI Insights - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) but showed a year-on-year decline of -1.9% (previous value: -2.2%) [13] - The structural characteristics of PPI indicate an improvement in overall economic conditions, with the PMI at 50.1% [13] - Rising prices in industrial goods are influenced by geopolitical risks and increased demand in sectors like new energy and AI [2] Market Outlook - The outlook for CPI in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, driven by the upward trend in consumer goods prices due to rising raw material costs [2] - The long-term forecast suggests that pig prices may gradually enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, impacting food CPI [5] - The overall improvement in industrial product prices reflects a recovery in market conditions, supported by various economic policies [13]