Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the central bank conducted continuous net injections, leading to a balanced and slightly loose liquidity situation. The bond market showed a significant recovery, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, with most individual convertible bonds declining. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. Summaries by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and taking measures in multiple aspects such as supporting innovation, consumption, and resolving local government debt risks [3]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium with non - Communist Party personages, with General Secretary Xi Jinping stressing the need to adhere to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability in the second half of the year, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [4]. - The central government plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for child - rearing subsidies this year, with the central finance bearing about 90% of the funds for the national basic standard [4][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission solicited public opinions on guiding the layout and investment of government investment funds to prevent homogenization and crowding - out effects [5]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to regulate the book - building issuance and underwriting in the inter - bank bond market from August 11, 2025 [6]. (2) International News - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Some members advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and Fed Chairman Powell dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [7]. - The U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, reversing the Q1 decline and exceeding expectations. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous value but higher than expected. However, there are concerns about the economic recovery, such as weakening domestic demand [9]. (3) Commodities - On July 30, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil rose 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.47% to $73.47 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.72% to $3266.90 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.89% to $3.016 per ounce [10]. II. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On July 30, the central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 158.5 billion yuan [12]. (2) Funding Rates - Due to continuous net injections by the central bank on July 30, the liquidity was balanced and slightly loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. For example, DR001 dropped 4.81bp to 1.315%, and DR007 dropped 4.67bp to 1.518% [13]. III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: After the Political Bureau meeting on July 30, the bond market recovered significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 2.75bp to 1.7200%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 dropped 3.25bp to 1.8040% [16]. - **Bond Tendering Results**: Details of the tendering results of several agricultural bonds, including the issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples, were provided [17]. (2) Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 30, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Yangcheng 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising over 747% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as asset freezes of some companies, changes in credit ratings, and cancellations of bond issuances [18]. (3) Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 30, the A - share market weakened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.77% and 1.62% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most individual convertible bonds declined [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Companies such as Hang Lung Properties reported their performance, and there were announcements regarding bond payments, revisions of conversion prices, and decisions on early redemptions [23][24][25]. (4) Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 30, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 8bp to 3.94%, and the 10 - year yield rose 4bp to 4.38%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed [26][27]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 30, the 10 - year UK government bond yield dropped 4bp, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies mostly rose [29]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of July 30 were presented, including the price changes, credit entities, bond codes, and other information of top - rising and top - falling bonds [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlighting Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" to influence Fed policy [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Inflation - Trump has suggested that the federal funds rate should be lowered by 300 basis points, citing low inflation as a reason for the Fed to cut rates [6]. - If inflation rises in the next three months, it may complicate Trump's ability to pressure Powell, as he could appoint a shadow chairman to argue that any inflation increase is temporary [6]. - The short-term motivations of the U.S. government could lead to inflationary pressures, which may conflict with the Fed's long-term goals of economic stability [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Despite Trump's negative stance towards the Fed, it is difficult for him to significantly influence its policies due to the strong institutional framework and safeguards in place [7]. - Any new chairman appointed by Trump would still require Senate approval, and monetary policy decisions involve a committee of 19 members, making unilateral influence challenging [7]. - There is a risk that a new chairman aligned with Trump's views could undermine the Fed's independence, which could have detrimental effects on the U.S. economy and market confidence [7].

据中国网财经中心消息，美联储最新议息决议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.5% 不变 。此消息一 出，金融市场震荡，各界反应强烈，尤其是特朗普，对这一结果极为不满。 自特朗普上台以来，一直积极推行大规模关税政策，试图以此重振美国经济，特别是制造业与贸易领域。 更糟糕的是，5 月新增就业人数从最初公布的 14.4 万修正为 1.9 万，6 月的数据从 14.7 万修正为 1.4 万。 这表明美国就业市场明显降温，经济增长动力不足。在这种情况下，特朗普要求降息似乎有其合理性。 特朗普（资料图） 然而，鲍威尔在 7 月 30 日的记者会上明确表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他还提 到，美联储尚未就 9 月份货币政策作出决定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 特朗普（资料图） 不过，这一政策的实施效果却不尽如人意，美国经济面临着更为严峻的价格压力与增长放缓风险。在这样 的背景下，特朗普多次公开炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，强烈要求降息，期望借此刺激经济增长。 当地时间 24 日，特朗普甚至罕见地造访美联储，再次向鲍威尔施压。在视察翻新工程现场时，特朗普与 鲍威尔就工程成本问题产生争执， ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Economics** sector, specifically analyzing the **2Q GDP** performance and its implications for the economy moving forward [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: The headline US GDP rose by **3.0%** quarter-over-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) in 2Q, a significant recovery from a **0.5%** decline in 1Q [1][9]. 2. **Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand was notably weaker, slowing to a **1.2%** pace from **2.7%** over the previous year, indicating a softening in both household and business spending [8][9]. 3. **Trade Volatility**: A **30.3%** drop in imports in 2Q, following frontloading in 1Q, artificially inflated the GDP figure, suggesting that the growth may not be sustainable [9][12]. 4. **Inflation Concerns**: Core PCE price inflation exceeded expectations at **2.54%** q/q annual rate, indicating potential upward risks to inflation forecasts [10][26]. 5. **Consumer Spending**: Real personal consumption rebounded to **1.4%** in Q2, driven by a **2.2%** increase in goods spending, particularly in motor vehicles, which rose **16.2%** [15][16]. 6. **Investment Trends**: Nonresidential fixed investment growth slowed, with structures investment declining by **10.3%** in 2Q, reflecting increased uncertainty in the private sector regarding capital spending [29][30]. 7. **Government Spending**: Government spending added modestly to growth, rising **0.4%** in 2Q, but federal spending fell **3.7%**, indicating a potential drag on future growth [28][37]. 8. **Future Outlook**: The outlook for GDP growth remains cautious, with expectations of a slowdown in the second half of the year due to restrictive trade and immigration policies [9][38]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Changes**: Changes in inventories contributed significantly to GDP volatility, with inventories subtracting **3.2 percentage points** from GDP in 2Q [13][39]. - **Weakness in Services**: Services spending showed a modest increase of **1.1%** in Q2, but this was still below the pace seen in 2024, indicating ongoing challenges in the services sector [17][24]. - **Residential Investment Decline**: Households sharply reduced residential investment, which fell by **4.6%** in the quarter, following a modest decline in 1Q [18][39]. - **Economic Factors**: The slowdown in economic activity is attributed to various factors, including payback effects, immigration restrictions, and policy uncertainty affecting spending and hiring plans [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical findings and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the US economy.

Global Macro Research July 28th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIMxvnV4Hvzpq0m2y4UWxbhza8RsCuHxXXMw}]} Overall summary US Rates We hold tactical 5s20s steepeners ahead of refunding. We think Treasury will increase coupon auction size increases in ...

Market Performance - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading, driven by strong performances in the information technology, healthcare, and financial sectors [1][3] - As of the latest report, the KOSPI index maintained a gain of approximately 1.9%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Sk Biopharma (up over 16%) and Samsung SDI (up over 12%) [3] Economic Outlook - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve an economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the International Monetary Fund [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the second consecutive month of inflation exceeding 2% [3][4] Price Trends - The prices of agricultural products, particularly fruits and vegetables, have surged due to extreme heat, with the average retail price of watermelon reaching 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), reflecting a 33.7% increase from the previous month and a 17.6% increase from the same period last year [5][7] - Other notable price increases include tomatoes, which saw a nearly 70% rise month-on-month, and cabbages, which increased by 68% [7] Weather Impact - South Korea is experiencing one of the most severe heatwaves on record, with July temperatures reaching 33 degrees Celsius or higher on 15 days, significantly impacting agricultural production and prices [8]

Group 1 - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading, driven by strong performances in the information technology, healthcare, and financial sectors [1][2] - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve its economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the International Monetary Fund [2][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with processed food prices rising by 4.1% and seafood prices increasing by 7.3%, while agricultural product prices saw a slight decline of 0.1% [2][3] Group 2 - The average retail price of watermelon reached 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), marking a 33.7% increase from the previous month and a 20.7% rise compared to the same period last year, attributed to extreme heat and increased demand [5][6] - Other agricultural products, such as tomatoes and cabbages, also saw significant price increases, with tomatoes rising nearly 70% month-on-month and cabbages exceeding 6,000 KRW (32 RMB) per head, reflecting the impact of severe weather conditions [5][6] - The Bank of Korea reported an increase in foreign exchange reserves, which rose by 1.13 billion USD to 411.33 billion USD by the end of July, following a decline to a five-year low in May [4][3]

美联储继续按兵不动 当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会负责制定隔夜拆借利率的公开市场委员会（FMOC）结束议息会议，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。 美联储议息会议通常每年安排八次，今年议息会议时间分别为1月、3月、5月、6月、7月、9月、11月和12月。自去年9月起美联储连续三次降息，合计降 幅达到100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上台以来，美联储连续五次维持利率不变。 这可把特朗普气坏了。他在第一任期期间任命鲍威尔担任美联储主席，没有想到鲍威尔如此桀骜不驯，完全不配合他的政治意图。7月18日，他在社交媒 体上说，鲍威尔是他任命过的最糟糕的官员之一。前一天在会见巴林王储讨论中东和平时，特朗普忽然骂起了鲍威尔，照例骂得很难听，有脱口秀主持人 开玩笑说："不了解的人还以为鲍威尔被拍到抱着特朗普的老婆听音乐会。"特朗普还对一脸懵圈的巴林王储说："我很惊讶，这样一个人竟然会被任命为 美联储主席，是拜登任命的。" 去年特朗普竞选总统时就对鲍威尔深表不满，他认为鲍威尔不懂金融，鲍威尔制定货币政策时应该听他的。就任总统后，特朗普就一直喊话鲍威尔降息， 然而鲍威尔充耳不闻，连续五次按兵不动 ...

赞迪警告，美国不仅劳动力市场正在走弱，而且消费者支出持平，建筑业和制造业萎缩。他还认为，在 通胀率仍高于2%目标的情况下，美联储将很难重振经济的增长。 当地时间8月3日，评级机构穆迪的首席经济学家马克·赞迪连发4条推文警告，过去一周的各项指标均显 示美国经济正处于衰退边缘。 就业数据经修正 增量被"抹了整" 美国劳工部8月1日发布经济数据显示，7月美国非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，低于市场预期。同时， 美国5月和6月非农业部门新增就业岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万， 共计减少25.8万个就业岗位。此外，企业招聘率降至七个月以来的最低点，反映出就业市场活力持续减 弱，企业需求的实质性疲软。 同一天，马克·赞迪发文称："任何认为经济数据歪曲了经济实际表现的观点都是大错特错。当经济处于 拐点，例如衰退时期，数据总是会经历大幅修正。" 赞迪还"阴阳"了一把美国政府的大裁员，称尤其考虑到"政府效率部（DOGE）"的一通折腾，各个政府 部门向劳工统计局报告的数据都是延迟的。随着就业情况变得不稳定，数据自然会经历大幅修正。今年 年初，马斯克在特朗普支持下创立"政府效率部"，但随 ...

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's annual inflation rate unexpectedly decreased to 33.52% in July, marking the 14th consecutive month of decline since the peak in May of the previous year [1] Inflation Data - July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.06% month-on-month, lower than market expectations, compared to a 1.37% increase in June and a year-on-year increase of 35.05% [1] - Key contributors to monthly inflation included a rise in transportation prices by 2.89%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices by 5.69%, and housing prices by 5.78% [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The ongoing release of inflationary pressure creates favorable conditions for monetary easing, leading the Central Bank of Turkey to cut the policy rate by 300 basis points, restarting the easing cycle after a pause in April due to financial and political turmoil [1] - The Central Bank expressed increased confidence in the trend of declining inflation, with expectations that inflation could fall to a range of 24%-29% by the end of the year [1] Producer Price Index - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.73% month-on-month and 24.19% year-on-year [1]