此前24日，中国人民银行行长在出席国际货币基金组织和世界银行春季例会系列会议时表示，一季度中 国经济开局良好，延续回升向好态势，因此央行或许认为多层次货币政策工具中的降准降息的祭出仍需 时日。 2025年4月30日 ，国债期货午盘表现分化。30年期主力合约跌0.09%，10年期主力合约跌0.01%，5年期 主力合约涨0.04%，2年期主力合约涨0.03%。 ETF方面，30年国债ETF博时(511130)多空胶着，最新报价113.08元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘 中换手20.45%，成交13.30亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至4月29日，30年国债ETF博时近1月 日均成交29.52亿元。 4月25日政治局会议召开。会议定调"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。财政政策上，提出"要加紧实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"用好用足更加积极的财政政策"、"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别 国债等发行使用"。"加紧"、"用好用足"等措辞表明力度。货币政策上，会议再次强调"适度宽松的货币 政策"，"适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济"。 费率方面，30年国债ETF博时管理费率为0.15%，托管 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,008, up 0.16% year-to-date increase of 29.10% [1] - The US markets continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.58%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.53% and 16.58% respectively [1][3] Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector reported Q1 2025 earnings, with SANY Heavy Industry exceeding expectations with a 56% year-on-year profit increase, driven by an 18% revenue growth [4] - The pharmaceutical company WuXi AppTec reported a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 21% to 9.65 billion yuan and a non-IFRS net profit increase of 40% to 2.68 billion yuan [4][6] - Mindray Medical's revenue for 2024 was 36.7 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, but faced challenges in the domestic market with a 12.1% decline in Q1 2025 revenue [7][8] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec maintained its full-year guidance despite macro uncertainties, expecting a 10-15% revenue growth in its continuing operations for 2025 [4][6] - Mindray Medical's overseas revenue grew by 21.3% in 2024, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, indicating strong international market performance [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a 41% year-on-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [11][12] Investment Ratings - SANY Heavy Industry is rated as a "Buy" with a focus on its excavator business cycle and overseas growth potential [4] - WuXi AppTec is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 77.22 yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth despite external challenges [6] - Mindray Medical is rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 249.19 yuan, anticipating recovery in domestic sales in the latter half of 2025 [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货收盘集体上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.69%，银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下行。央行在公开市场连续净投放，银行间市场资金面总体 平稳。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升，前者下行超5个bp，后者因跨月原因上行超3个bp。五一长假将至，在央行的呵护下，资金面无忧， 市场也在等待降息降准等政策落地。 2、资金面：4月29日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3405亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量3405亿元，中标量3405亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日2205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1200亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.1450，现券 ...

一、停止口号降准降息！择机降准降息，给个明确时间吧！大A现在"失血"严重，急需增量资金的加入，流动性的注入。媒体已经多次报道要降准降息，但 到底啥时候来个准信儿呢？ 同时，会议强调要"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，这"加紧实施"四个字，说明政策肯定不会缺席，而且落地速度可能会加快。目前A股市场不缺资金 和政策支持，真正缺的是信心。所以，逢高减仓吧，这波行情估计快到头了。 二、跟昨天走势差不多，开盘先分歧后修复，然后窄幅震荡一天。 尾盘收盘3286点，跌幅0.05%，这控盘是不是太精准了？按理说今天应该是修复行情。出金压力小了；假期虽然有不确定性，但也不会比现在更糟糕； 除非破区间的下沿，否则节后方向选择向上的概率更高，仓位不要过度轻了，怕有概率踏空。操作方面，小长假期间，外盘的走势充满变数，其波动可能会 给节后的A股市场带来不同程度的影响。中长线而言，市场虽然在窄幅震荡，但依旧处于20日线上，可以稳步进场。 撰稿、收集数据不易，觉得有帮助的朋友可以点击关注、分享♝、点赞，支持一下，谢谢！也可点击收藏，方便日后翻查。 三、A股窄幅整理，依旧维持地量震荡格局。 三大指数均微幅收跌，市场成交额1.04万亿元，为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the interest rate center may decline further. The market generally expects the Fed to restart rate cuts around June, which may also be the window for the central bank to implement monetary easing, with reserve requirement ratio cuts likely to precede interest rate cuts. Given the recent intensifying divergence in the bond market, if the short - end bond futures do not show signs of stabilization, there is a risk of a decline in the long - end. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别上涨0.23%、0.13%、0.01%、0.69%，成交量分别为51372（+1234）、50163（+2563）、34240（+4950）、77545（+604）手 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 decreased, while TS2509 - 2506 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T、TF、TL主力持仓量分别增加5655、1926手，TS主力持仓量减少1495手；各合约前20名多空持仓和净空仓有不同变化 [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 240025.IB, 220003.IB, etc. increased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: Yields of 1 - 7 - year active bonds decreased by 1 - 2bp, and 10 - year yield decreased by 1.65bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 6bp, Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.2bp; silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 16bp, Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.5bp; silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 2bp, Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 0.9bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a issuance scale of 3405 billion yuan and a maturity scale of 2205 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day period [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The State Council Information Office held a press conference, and Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank said that reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts would be carried out in a timely manner to maintain sufficient liquidity and introduce incremental policies [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 810 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for the second batch this year to support consumer goods trade - in [2]. - The central bank held a meeting to deploy the implementation of the overall statistical system for the "five major articles" of finance [2]. 3.6 Market Performance - On Tuesday, treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank shifted to net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate rose to 1.75% [2]. 3.7 Key Data to Watch - On April 30, data such as the US April ADP employment, March core PCE price index annual rate, and the week - on - week EIA crude oil inventory are to be released; on May 1, data such as the week - on - week initial jobless claims and April ISM manufacturing PMI; on May 2, the April unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of April and looking forward to May, investors' preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased, while their attention to credit products has decreased month - on - month, but there may be a characteristic of "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of April, six mainstream expectations of investors for the May bond market are summarized: preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly; Trump's tariff policy may promote the early implementation of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; the current expectation of monetary easing is still strong, with most investors expecting an RRR cut in May - June and an interest rate cut more likely in the third quarter; most investors believe that the bond market will strengthen overall in May, and the probability of a bull - flattening curve is high; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are narrow, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors are neutral in practice and prefer to keep their positions basically stable, possibly showing "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Survey Background - A bond market questionnaire "What to expect from the May bond market?" was released on April 25, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the May 2025 bond market. As of 24:00 on April 27, a total of 331 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors such as bank self - operation, securities firm self - operation, public funds/special accounts, and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 48% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is below 1.60%, and 45% think it is between 1.60% - 1.70% (inclusive). 76% of investors believe the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may be within 1.80%, and 11% think it may be between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). Most investors expect the bond market in May to trade around the tariff policy, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is unlikely to return to the previous high in April [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May will be less than 1.8%, and 43% think it is between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). 53% of investors believe the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May is between 1.90% - 2.00% (inclusive), and 31% think it is within 1.90%. The overall bond market in May may be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. 3.3 Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - 62% of investors think the economic trend in the second quarter will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening", a significant increase compared with the April questionnaire results. 22% of investors think it will show the characteristic of "year - on - year recovery but month - on - month weaker than the seasonal level". 10% of investors think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month in line with the seasonal level", and 5% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month exceeding the seasonal level", a significant decrease compared with the April questionnaire results. The deviation between the economic fundamental expectation and the reality needs a certain verification period [19]. 3.4 Expectations for RRR and Interest Rate Cuts - **RRR Cut**: 66% of investors think an RRR cut will occur in May - June, and 17% think it will be in the third quarter. Investors have a high expectation for an RRR cut and expect it to happen earlier [21]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: 49% of investors think an interest rate cut will occur in the third quarter, 31% think it will be in May - June. 12% of investors think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Investors' expectation for an interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the proportion of those who think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025 has decreased significantly [21]. 3.5 Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Bond Market - 46% of investors think it may promote the early implementation of RRR and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 27% think the subsequent focus will be on the expectation of tariff policy cooling, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. 15% think it may trigger non - US countries to impose tariffs on China, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 12% think it may strengthen the policy - makers' determination to stabilize the capital market, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Overall, investors generally think the subsequent impact of Trump's tariff policy on the bond market is still positive [23]. 3.6 Expectations for the May Bond Market行情 - 27% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and show a bull - flattening trend in May. 26% think it will strengthen overall and show a bull - steepening trend. 16% think it is difficult to judge the trend of the interest rate curve in May. 10% think the short - end of the interest rate curve will be strong and the long - end will be weak, and 10% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Overall, more investors are optimistic about the May bond market, but there is some divergence between the expectations of a bull - flattening and a bull - steepening curve [25]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 49% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. 23% think they should hold cash and wait, and then add positions after the market回调 to the expected level. 13% think they can start adding positions. 11% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. 4% think they should reduce the duration to control risks. Most investors are neutral in practice, and keeping positions stable is the mainstream view [29]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Varieties in May - 18% and 17% of investors think the opportunities for long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are relatively certain. 15%, 10%, and 10% of investors are more optimistic about medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and local government bonds respectively. About 9% of investors prefer medium - low - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products such as interest - rate bonds, certificates of deposit, and government bonds, and their preference for credit products has decreased month - on - month. The preferred varieties have shifted from the short - end to the long - end and ultra - long - end [32]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in May - 31% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the main pricing logics for the May bond market. 16% and 15% of investors think fiscal stimulus, government bond issuance, and fundamental data such as real estate and PMI are the main pricing logics. 13% of investors think the implementation of the US tariff policy is the main pricing logic. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the most concerned factors for investors [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance in 2024, with a projected increase in net profit growth and a reduction in liability pressure. As of April 17, 2024, 26 listed banks reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.88% and a net profit growth of 5.29% in Q4 2024 [3][12]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies such as potential interest rate cuts and increased investment in state-owned banks to support economic stability amid external uncertainties [3][27]. - The banking sector is likely to attract risk-averse capital due to its defensive characteristics and stable dividends, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamentals - In Q4 2024, 26 listed banks achieved a total revenue of 5.21 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.36%. However, net profit reached 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [12][23]. - The net interest income for 2024 decreased by 2.03%, but showed a positive growth of 0.39% in Q4, indicating a recovery trend [17][19]. - Loan issuance for 2024 reached 158.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.97%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to 2023 [17][23]. 2. Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the need for further policy support to stabilize the economy, particularly through potential interest rate cuts and increased focus on domestic demand [27][36]. - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and investment through various initiatives, including special bonds to support consumption and infrastructure projects [42][44]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to inject 500 billion yuan into major state-owned banks to strengthen their capacity to serve the real economy [45][46]. 3. Financial Environment - The banking sector is expected to continue receiving inflows of risk-averse capital, particularly as external market conditions remain volatile [3][37]. - The report notes that the average net interest margin for 26 listed banks in 2024 was 1.64%, a decrease from the previous year, but with expectations of gradual recovery as loan re-pricing pressures ease [19][21]. - The average non-performing loan ratio for these banks improved to 1.15% in 2024, indicating better asset quality management [23][26].

撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 19,930.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) 188,496.00 | -5.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -2563.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,766 ...

格有所支撑。操作上建议，玻璃主力合约2509，1100附近轻仓做多，止损价格1080，注意操作节奏及风险 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 控制。操作上建议，目前纯碱主力合约2509，1380附近可以尝试空单，止损价格1400元，注意操作节奏及 免责声明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-04-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1376 | 12 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1108 | -14 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 268 | 26 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1018097 | -18679 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1150500 | -11339 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -134013 | 20595 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -172739 | 16791 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3840 ...