Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of rapeseed meal is neutral [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and declined, affected by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a volatile state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, influenced by soybean meal [8]. - Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price following the fluctuations, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [33]. - Rapeseed meal will fluctuate and rise in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term, mainly affected by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal [42]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of rapeseed meal, including its fundamentals, market news, and technical indicators, and gives trading strategies and future focus points [8][44] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result [11]. - The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11] 4. Fundamental Data - The rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% [8]. - The spot price is 2,640, with a basis of 101, indicating a premium over futures [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward [8]. - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - The import of rapeseed has no shipping schedule in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [19]. - The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are at low levels [21][23]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [31] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and funds have flowed in [8] 6. Trading Strategies - Futures: Short - term range - bound and slightly bullish. The RM2601 contract will fluctuate around 2,500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [12]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose due to the Canadian Prime Minister's statement. The China - Canada trade relationship is still uncertain, and it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [42]. - The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a high level, and the short - term market is in a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium - high level limits the rebound height [42]. - The MACD is oscillating and rising at a low level, but the red energy is narrowing. Future trends depend on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [42] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - The second - most important points are domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [44]. - Other important points are macro - factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound fluctuations [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main influencing factors include the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the change in domestic aquaculture demand season, and potential changes in the Sino - Canadian trade relationship [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2500 - 2560 range - bound oscillation. Factors influencing it include soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, low inventory, and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relationship [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short - term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From October 29 to November 6, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3017 to 3092, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2500 to 2650, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 517 to 442 [13]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 29 to November 6, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2601) increased from 2373 to 2549, and the price of the far - month contract 2605 increased from 2330 to 2416. The spot price in Fujian increased from 2500 to 2650 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From October 28 to November 6, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4050 to 2755 [16]. - **Import and Inventory**: In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained low [22][24][26]. - **Aquaculture Production and Prices**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but capital inflows were observed, showing a bullish signal [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from low levels, and the short - term trend has strengthened. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is expected to continue the de - stocking mode. Near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, which supports the price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a basic level. After a continuous decline, the decline of rapeseed oil futures prices has slowed down, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9407 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2537 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5126 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased by 1525 lots to 214,565 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 5155 lots to - 8535 lots. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract increased by 32,792 lots to 408,102 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 22,004 lots to - 2963 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 702 to 6838, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2955 [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9770 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9887.5 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7969.31 yuan/ton, up 150.43 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.78, down 0.03. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 327 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 33 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1360 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was - 0.4 million tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, up 0.71 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly production of feed was 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, down 1.99 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, up 2.84 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, down 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, up 1.17 percentage points [2]. **Industry News** - On November 4th, ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US - China soybean trade agreement boosted the price of US soybean futures, which was beneficial to the domestic meal market. The meeting between the Canadian Prime Minister and the Chinese President did not achieve a breakthrough in rapeseed tariffs [2]. **Key Points of Attention** - The rapeseed opening rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region released by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of China - Canada trade relations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is relatively loose in supply and demand, but the US market shows strong performance due to increased exports. Brazilian soybean prices may face pressure in the medium - term. Domestic soybean meal is strong due to tariff adjustments, and rapeseed meal is also strong influenced by soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to shrink. [4][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market continues to be strong, and the Brazilian price is falling with sufficient supply. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are both strong. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the monthly spreads of both are strong. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the international market, the US soybean has limited upside potential without a significant yield reduction. Brazil's soybean supply is abundant, and its price may face pressure. Argentina's soybean export and processing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited. [4] - In the domestic market, the supply and demand of soybean meal are relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply is uncertain. [5] 3.3 Macroeconomic Impact - Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals, and the US soybean market has risen. However, the impact on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamentals. [6] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean has limited upside space without a large - scale yield decline. Brazilian soybean prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean meal is strong with price support, and rapeseed meal is also strong but has limited upside space. The monthly spreads of both are strong but have limited further upside potential. [7] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short the 05 contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Sell wide straddles. [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will be affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintain range - bound oscillations. The overall view is neutral [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2460 - 2520 range. Its fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward (bullish), the main position shows more orders decreasing but capital inflow (bullish). It is expected to return to an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been levied. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 27 to November 4, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2997 to 3079 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2480 to 2610 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The difference between the average transaction prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, ranging from 460 to 528 yuan [13]. - From October 27 to November 4, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2335 to 2497 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2323 to 2380 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2480 to 2610 yuan. Rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium [15][17]. - From October 24 to November 4, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4260 to 2955 [16]. - In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low [22][24][26]. - Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide specific and detailed position data other than the fact that the main long orders decreased and capital inflowed [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of Sino-US negotiations. With the expectation of 12 million tons of exports to China being gradually priced in, the ending stocks are expected to remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, there is limited upward momentum due to the expected smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The domestic soybean meal is constrained by high near-term inventories, so the rebound space is limited. If the purchase of US soybeans is effectively initiated, it will bring a downward drive for the far-term, but the downward range is also limited due to the cost support from the rebound of the external market. For rapeseed meal, due to the ongoing Sino-Canadian negotiations affecting market expectations, the near-term futures performance is slightly stronger, but it is not advisable to chase the long side [1]. - The far-month soybean import profit has slightly recovered but remains at a low level, indicating limited far-term soybean purchases. With the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market expects the resumption of US soybean purchases, alleviating the far-term supply gap. For rapeseed meal, there is a near-term supply gap due to Sino-Canadian tariffs, but demand is expected to weaken simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year. The "anti-involution" policy for downstream pigs is unlikely to effectively reduce demand, so the demand reduction is expected to be limited. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has returned to normal, laying a foundation for a smooth harvest, while the soil moisture in Argentina is still slightly dry. The subsequent pressure of a bumper harvest will be transmitted to the domestic meal market in the form of basis [15]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on US soybean exports to China, with limited upward momentum. The domestic market is constrained by high near-term inventories, and the far-term may face downward pressure if US soybean purchases resume [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by Sino-Canadian negotiations, the near-term performance is slightly stronger, but chasing the long side is not recommended. The domestic rapeseed import has decreased significantly this year, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected resumption of Sino-Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover [1][2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through this range [23]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options, selling 3300 call options for the M2601 contract; sell 2600 call options for the rapeseed meal 2601 contract [23]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: Use accumulating option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks, and view the basis as likely to return to positive and strengthen. Hold the positive spread positions for M3 - 5 and M1 - 3. Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 contracts when the spread is between 650 - 700 [24]. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The soybean meal price is expected to range between 2800 - 3300, and the rapeseed meal price between 2250 - 2750 [26]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [26]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different changes, with some rising and some falling. The CBOT yellow soybean price remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [27]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed various trends, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The import costs and压榨 profits of US and Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed were also provided [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on November 14 (originally scheduled for November 10, but the release is uncertain due to the government shutdown). As of October 30, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state has reached 76.13% of the expected area [31]. - **Negative Information**: Chinese importers have booked Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. If China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year, it can meet the USDA's export target for the 2024/25 season, but it may not drive a continuous price increase. The short-term price increase sustainability needs to be observed, and if the agreement implementation falls short of expectations, there may be technical profit-taking pressure [32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream buyers continue to purchase on a just-in-time basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the USDA releases the supply and demand report on November 10. Also, pay attention to various reports such as the USDA export inspection report, Brazilian Secex weekly and monthly reports, USDA crop growth report, and CFTC agricultural product position report [37][40]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures rebounded due to short covering and the increase in external market costs. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, with a stronger rebound due to reduced warehouse receipt pressure and Sino-Canadian trade relationship uncertainties. The capital flow shows that foreign institutional short positions were closed, and institutional long positions were reduced in the second half of the week, indicating limited upward space. The put-call ratio (PCR) of soybean meal options shows a return of bearish sentiment [38]. - **Month Spread Structure**: The futures month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally show a B structure in the first half of the year and a C structure in the second half, related to their seasonal supply patterns. This week, the 1 - 5 month spread of soybean meal first rose and then fell, and the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal strengthened due to the unilateral increase in the 01 contract [43]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined this week due to the faster increase in futures prices than spot prices. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased [47]. - **External Market**: The external and domestic markets showed a more consistent trend this week. After the expectation of Sino-US trade talks and the news of soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed suit. The net long positions of CBOT soybean management funds have returned above the zero line, indicating a short-term return of long funds [52][56]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The crushing profit in the US soybean production area has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, but the monthly crushing volume remains at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened, while the domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the current US soybean crushing profit under a 13% tariff. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans in the future is limited, and the domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline seasonally around holidays. Although the import of rapeseed shows a crushing profit, due to the import margin requirement, future purchases are expected to remain cautious [63]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 International Supply and Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the new crop balance sheet in September, the planting area is expected to marginally increase after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to marginally decrease after being adjusted to the highest level in history. The total production is expected to remain between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. On the demand side, the crushing volume is expected to continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to Sino-US trade relations. If Sino-US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above-normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the potential import of US soybeans, the domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and then recover in the first quarter of next year. The import of rapeseed will continue to remain at a low level [70]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to remain high due to the carry-over inventory from the third quarter and the arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter. After the previous high-level stocking, the subsequent consumption growth of domestic soybean meal is expected to be limited [74]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - The domestic soybean inventory is currently at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease and then stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory will also remain high despite the decline in raw material inventory and crushing volume [76].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in the price of rapeseed meal, driven by strong market demand and tight supply conditions, with expectations for continued price stability in the near term [4][10]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The price of rapeseed meal reached 2581 CNY/ton, up 1.73% from the previous working day, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4]. - The production capacity for rapeseed meal is nearly stagnant, unable to compensate for the current market demand, leading to a tight supply situation [4]. - In October, coastal oil mills processed 57,000 tons of rapeseed, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous month, with rapeseed meal production also declining [8]. - The inventory levels for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are extremely low, with domestic imported rapeseed inventory at 0.0 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and significantly lower than last year's 743,000 tons [8]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the fourth quarter is typically a weak consumption season for rapeseed meal, and the delay in the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may impact market dynamics [10]. - Despite the low processing volumes, imports of rapeseed meal have not shown a downward trend, indicating resilience in supply [10]. - The article suggests that the market is currently in a phase of wide fluctuations, with demand expected to weaken, but with potential support from low valuations and strong cost support from soybean meal [11][12]. Price Forecast - The rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with average prices projected around 2580-2590 CNY/ton in the near term [4]. - The article anticipates that the rapeseed meal prices may experience a rebound due to support from rapeseed oil and rapeseed futures prices [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal to oscillate and rebound. It is currently in an interval oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement rumors of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate with a slight upward trend. For the RM2601 contract, it oscillates around 2400 in the short term, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - The rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and in a technical oscillation adjustment. The market returns to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain an interval oscillation in the short term, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. - **Import and production situation**: There is no ship schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories continue to decline. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [16][18][19]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The rapeseed meal rebounds with the soybean meal and returns to an interval oscillation pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The future China - Canada trade relationship is uncertain, affecting the market. - The KDJ indicator rebounds from a low level. It is in a short - term technical rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limits the rebound height. - The MACD rebounds from a low level, and the green energy turns red. The subsequent upward trend depends on the soybean meal and rapeseed import policies. Overall, the rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds in the short term and maintains an interval oscillation in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends [42]. 3.6 Next Week's Focus - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. - **Second important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors also influence the market [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2400 - 2460 range. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the market affected by soybean meal and waiting for the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping result. The basis is positive as the spot price is higher than the futures price. Inventory is decreasing both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is positive. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving down, considered neutral. The main long positions are decreasing with capital outflow, and the short - term outlook is a return to the oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and the geopolitical conflict in Russia and Ukraine may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 23rd to October 31st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 to 3048, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 15.08 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2470 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices and spot prices had different trends, with futures prices showing a bottom - up trend and spot prices relatively stable. Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4702 on October 22nd to 2955 on October 31st [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - Not specifically elaborated in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The view is that rapeseed meal will oscillate in the 2400 - 2460 range. The strategy is to pay attention to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and China - Canada trade relations [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend lacks clear guidance and remains volatile [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main risks are the decline in domestic aquaculture demand after the long holiday and the potential increase in imported rapeseed arrivals [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal futures rebound after hitting the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains at a low level. The price of aquatic fish rises slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [18][20][23] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce the expected supply in China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has a relatively offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [11] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12] - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports [12] 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From October 22nd to 30th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 to 3026, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2440 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, except for 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 496 and 523 [13] - **Price Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2321 to 2401, and the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2300 to 2338. The spot price of rapeseed meal (Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2530 [15] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 7702 to 3915, with several decreases during the period [17] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [9]