Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,050 ringgit. After the short - term oscillation, a new breakthrough direction will be chosen. If Malaysian palm oil breaks through 4,200 ringgit, domestic palm oil futures may follow suit [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) in early March. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased last week, but the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, and the basis quotation has limited fluctuation space [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The improvement in China - Canada trade relations brings hope for rapeseed imports, but it cannot relieve the short - term supply shortage. The rapeseed oil futures and basis are expected to have limited downward space and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. 2. Cotton USDA weekly signing reached a high for the year, and the US cotton production was slightly reduced. Zhengzhou cotton has support from cotton consumption demand but is also restricted by factors such as compressed downstream profits and the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. Short - term cotton prices are expected to continue the adjustment trend [2]. 3. Sugar Internationally, the Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. India's sugar production is strong, and Thailand's sugar - making season is slow. Domestically, the spot market is in the peak season, but the consumption fails to meet expectations. Sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. 4. Red Dates Affected by weak demand and pessimistic market sentiment, futures prices are under pressure. The Spring Festival peak - season effect is not obvious, and the market is in a state of active de - capacity. The futures market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. 5. Apples The procurement in the production areas has started, but the transaction is light, and the price is weakly stable. The inventory in the sales areas is high, and the demand is weak. The futures market is affected by weak demand and cooling capital sentiment, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6][9]. 6. Corn The supply of corn in the short term is tight, and the downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, which supports the corn price. However, the increasing policy - related corn supply limits the price increase. Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. 7. Pigs The weekend spot pig prices are strong, and the breeding side is reluctant to sell. There is still some second - fattening, but the enthusiasm is limited. The supply - demand game is intensifying. The futures market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival demand, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [16][17]. 8. Meal The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is abundant, and the auction suppresses the market. However, the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, and there is uncertainty in the arrival rhythm. The soybean meal inventory has started to decline. The soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 2,700 [20]. 9. Eggs The decline in the laying - hen inventory has slowed down, and the market's overall shipment pressure has been relieved. The Spring Festival stocking is over, and the market is afraid of high prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, 2026, the average price of soybeans in Jiangsu decreased by 0.59% compared with the previous day; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 1.88%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.91%. The prices of related futures contracts also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The soybean oil inventory decreased by 68,800 tons last week; the palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 900; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 80 [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 39.93%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread decreased by 2.92% [1]. 2. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the cotton 2605 contract decreased by 0.31%, and the cotton 2609 contract decreased by 0.24%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2.62% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton decreased by 0.49%, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.32% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, and the fabric inventory days increased by 4.4% [2]. 3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the sugar 2605 contract decreased by 0.27%, and the sugar 2609 contract decreased by 0.13%. The ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 2.74% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning sugar price decreased by 0.19%, and the Kunming sugar price remained unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. 4. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the red date 2605 contract decreased by 0.68%, the 2607 contract decreased by 0.67%, and the 2609 contract decreased by 0.60% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade red date price decreased by 0.74%, and the first - grade red date price decreased by 2.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: The open interest increased by 3.84%, the warehouse receipts increased by 0.83%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 7.69% [4]. 5. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the apple 2605 contract decreased by 2.05%, and the 2610 contract decreased by 0.92%. The open interest decreased by 8.03% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 2.25% [6]. 6. Corn - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the corn 2603 contract's basis decreased by 7.25%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 50.00%. The open interest increased by 0.45%, and the warehouse receipts increased by 4.61% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.21%, and the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged [13]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price is strongly supported; in North China, the price has a small increase. The demand side has a certain inventory - building intention [13]. 7. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the main pig futures contract increased by 44.87%, the 2605 contract decreased by 1.73%, and the 2603 contract decreased by 2.30%. The open interest decreased by 4.40%, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 46.87% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The pig prices in various regions showed an upward trend, and the slaughter volume decreased by 0.52% [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The self - breeding profit increased by 164.04%, and the purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 2193.07%. The fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [16]. 8. Meal - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the soybean meal 2605 contract remained unchanged, the rapeseed meal 2605 contract decreased by 1.51%, the soybean 1 main contract decreased by 0.07%, and the soybean 2 main contract decreased by 0.15% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu soybean meal price remained unchanged, the Jiangsu rapeseed meal price decreased by 3.39%, the Harbin soybean price remained unchanged, and the Jiangsu imported soybean price remained unchanged [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is abundant, but the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low [20]. 9. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the egg 03 contract decreased by 1.60%, and the 04 contract decreased by 1.23% [23]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.71%, the egg - chick price increased by 3.45%, the culled - hen price increased by 7.50%, and the feed - to - egg ratio decreased by 3.42% [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The laying - hen inventory decline has slowed down, and the Spring Festival stocking is over [23].

Report Information - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The trends of the three major oils are diverging. Due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the far - month is expected to increase, causing the prices of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to fall. The expected release of the US biofuel blending quota has boosted the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the upcoming export data for the first 20 days of January. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: The previous settlement price was 8618, the opening price was 8660, the highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, the closing price was 8648, with a rise of 30 and a rise rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 358548, and the open interest was 413122, a decrease of 1951 [7] - P2609: The previous settlement price was 8608, the opening price was 8632, the highest price was 8662, the lowest price was 8592, the closing price was 8622, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.16%. The trading volume was 19126, and the open interest was 66014, a decrease of 40 [7] - Y2605: The previous settlement price was 7978, the opening price was 8014, the highest price was 8024, the lowest price was 7964, the closing price was 7996, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 209449, and the open interest was 716725, an increase of 584 [7] - Y2609: The previous settlement price was 7852, the opening price was 7866, the highest price was 7902, the lowest price was 7842, the closing price was 7876, with a rise of 24 and a rise rate of 0.31%. The trading volume was 22233, and the open interest was 107080, an increase of 3032 [7] - OI605: The previous settlement price was 9038, the opening price was 8861, the highest price was 8978, the lowest price was 8860, the closing price was 8902, with a fall of 136 and a fall rate of 1.50%. The trading volume was 367634, and the open interest was 253596, a decrease of 16032 [7] - OI609: The previous settlement price was 9004, the opening price was 8833, the highest price was 8947, the lowest price was 8827, the closing price was 8923, with a fall of 81 and a fall rate of 0.90%. The trading volume was 13371, and the open interest was 12649, an increase of 2915 [7] - **Spot Quotations**: - East China rapeseed oil traders' quotations: For East China March - transferred triple - pressed rapeseed oil, it is 05 + 720. For genetically - modified first - grade rapeseed oil in the East China spot market, it is 05 + 1300, and triple - pressed rapeseed oil is 05 + 650 from March to May in East China, 05 + 600 from April to May in East China [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, the spot price is Y05 + 520; from February to March it is Y2605+480; from February to May it is Y2605+400; from March to May it is Y2605+360; from April to May it is Y2605+300; from May to July it is Y2605+240; from June to September it is Y2605+190; from July to September it is Y2605+200. For third - grade soybean oil, it is 05 + 450, and for degummed soybean oil, it is 05 + 350 [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotations: For 18 - degree palm oil from Guangzhou Yihai, it is 05 + 170; for 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 0; for national - standard 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, it is 05 + 50; for 52 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 - 200; for 33 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 20 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the purchase of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the release of the US biofuel blending quota, and the January 1 - 20 palm oil export data. Adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - From January 1 - 15, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 18.42% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 18.09% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month. The palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 435,882 tons, the same as that from December 1 - 15. The export volume to China was 17,000 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to 58,000 tons in the same period last month [10][11] 3.3 Data Overview - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast**: Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast. If the prediction comes true, it will increase by 4.3% year - on - year and set a new record. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 48.33 million hectares, and the average yield per unit area will be 3,728 kg per hectare, a 2.8% increase compared to the 2024/25 season [16] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the third week of 2026, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 677,600 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week; the contract volume was 39,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to last week. The inventory of 24 - degree and below palm oil was 653,800 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week, and the high - grade palm oil inventory was 23,800 tons, the same as last week [16]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by the Canadian government is seen as a positive development for Lotus Cars, facilitating its growth in the North American market [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - The Canadian government has reduced the tariff rate on 49,000 imported Chinese electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1% [1][5]. - This policy change is expected to allow Lotus Cars' Eletre, a pure electric SUV, to significantly lower its price in Canada, potentially by around 50% [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The tariff reduction is anticipated to lead to exponential growth in the sales volume of Lotus Cars in Canada [4]. - Lotus Cars has established a mature sales service system in Canada, with 6 authorized dealers, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the new tariff benefits [4]. Group 3: Sales Network and Strategy - Lotus Cars currently has a global sales network covering 61 countries and regions, with over 210 dealerships [4]. - The company has proactively built market access certifications and channel development, enabling it to quickly convert policy benefits into market share [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The global and Canadian canola supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which restricts prices. However, the improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports. There are also positive news from US biodiesel, and the supply side has continued to cut production this month with a significant increase in palm oil exports in the first half of the month. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and canola oil is in a destocking mode, supporting prices. But the arrival of Australian canola and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations will increase long - term supply pressure. The short - term price fluctuations are intensifying, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade negotiations [6]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures continued to decline. The USDA monthly supply - demand report is bearish, dragging down US soybeans. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China is a recent focus [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,063 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The global 2025/26 canola production is expected to be 95.172 million tons, with an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year. Canada's 2025/26 canola production is 22 million tons, an increase of 2.761 million tons year - on - year. The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports, and there are positive factors such as US biodiesel news. In China, oil mills are shut down, and canola oil is destocking, but future supply pressure may increase [6]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA report is bearish for soybeans, but US soybean crushing in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation and fluctuates with soybean meal [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices and Positions**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 269,628 lots, an increase of 24,507 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 917,639 lots, an increase of 108,294 lots from last week [12]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were - 6,415, compared with - 10,917 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 240,846, compared with - 107,343 last week, with an increase in net short positions [18]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 2,142, and those of canola meal were 84 [24]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,950 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 887 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 195 yuan/ton [31][37]. - **Futures Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 53 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 68 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [43]. - **Futures - Spot Ratios**: The ratio of the 05 canola oil - canola meal contract was 4.02, and the average spot price ratio was 3.95 [47]. - **Price Spreads between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,047 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 389 yuan/ton, also with narrow fluctuations this week [56]. - **Price Spreads between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 472 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread was 770 yuan/ton [62] 3. Industry Chain Situation **Rapeseed** - **Supply - side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [66]. - **Imported Pressing Profit**: As of January 15, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,202 yuan/ton [70]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the second week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0% [74]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total rapeseed import volume was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72% [78] **Canola Oil** - **Supply - side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 295,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.64%. In November 2025, the total canola oil import volume was 1.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons compared with the same period last year [82]. - **Demand - side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 605.7 billion yuan [86]. - **Demand - side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 55,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [90] **Canola Meal** - **Supply - side Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week [94]. - **Supply - side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total canola meal import volume was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96% [98]. - **Demand - side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.9779 million tons [102] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of January 16, this week, canola meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 25.54%, basically the same as last week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [106]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Affected by the bearish USDA report and the rising expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also in a weak oscillation recently. Although the current de - stocking mode supports the price and the basis remains high, the increasing long - term supply pressure due to the arrival of Australian rapeseeds and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations needs attention [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 8828 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2283 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 14 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: Main contract positions of rapeseed oil were 258828 lots, up 12208 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 869905 lots, down 1046 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 20583 lots, up 650 lots; for rapeseed meal were - 201431 lots, down 19790 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 2142 sheets, down 80 sheets; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Averages and spreads: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9706.25 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7540.97 yuan/ton, down 45.57 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 3.95, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 772 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 67 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit was 365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%; the at - the - money put option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%. The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.15% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.67%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 12.82%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.08%, down 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.1%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - On January 14th, ICE rapeseed futures declined, in line with the trend of Chicago soybean oil. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract fell 4.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 628.30 Canadian dollars per ton. The rapeseed trade is closely watching the news related to Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish for soybeans, dragging down rapeseed meal. Domestically, the supply of near - month Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed increases marginal supply. The market expects an improvement in China - Canada trade relations, increasing long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal, maintaining a weak oscillation [2]. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The USDA supply - demand report shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern for global and Canadian rapeseed, which restricts the market price. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China raises the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which may support the Canadian rapeseed market. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting the price, but the long - term supply pressure increases [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report analyzes the current situation of the rapeseed industry, including futures and spot markets, upstream and downstream conditions, and industry news. It points out that the market is affected by factors such as international trade relations, supply and demand, and USDA reports [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic supply of rapeseed meal is tight in the near - term due to import restrictions and oil - mill shutdowns. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the marginal supply increases. The USDA report is bearish, dragging down the market. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Domestic oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports the price and keeps the basis at a high level. But the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and the possible improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed changed. For example, the closing price of rapeseed oil was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The positions and net buying volumes of the top 20 futures contracts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, and the number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related substitutes such as soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal changed. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures and the price spreads between different varieties changed [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: Global and domestic rapeseed production and import data are presented. For example, the global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit increased, and the weekly starting rate of imported rapeseed was 0% [2]. Industry Situation - **Imports and Stocks**: The import volumes of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed changed, and the inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions also changed [2]. - **Operation and Sales**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil decreased, and that of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The production of feed and edible vegetable oil and the retail sales of catering services changed [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied and historical volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed [2]. Industry News - **Futures Movement**: ICE rapeseed futures rose following the increase in CBOT soybean oil futures, and the market awaited the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. - **USDA Report**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish, with increased soybean production forecasts in the US and Brazil [2]. Key Points of Concern - The opening rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations are the key points to watch [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2320. It is currently in a short - term weak oscillation, affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the outcome of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. Overall, it will maintain a short - term oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2260 and 2320. The market is affected by soybean meal, technical factors, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the price, maintaining a short - term oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports to China. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final tariff policy depends on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a possibility of reconciliation. - The main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From January 5th to 13th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 608 to 701. The rapeseed meal futures price fluctuated, and the spot price followed. The spot price was at a relatively high premium. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract rebounded from a low level [13][15][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week and a 100% year - on - year decrease compared to 22,000 tons last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume was zero [9][25][27]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 13, the futures prices of beans and oils showed a divergent trend. The prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal were oscillating weakly, while the prices of oils were oscillating strongly. The soybean meal market dropped significantly due to the unexpectedly bearish US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report. The short - term soybean meal futures price will run weakly in an oscillating manner. The oil market showed a trend of rising and then falling. The short - term palm oil market sentiment has improved, with the futures price oscillating strongly. The futures prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil may enter a high - level oscillating consolidation phase [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **USDA January Supply - Demand Report**: In the 2025/26 season, US soybean production and inventory were increased, and exports were decreased. Brazilian soybean production was raised by 3 million tons. US soybean production was unexpectedly increased, exports were reduced by 60 million bushels, and inventory was increased by 60 million bushels. The estimated production was 4.262 billion bushels, with the harvest area increased to 80.4 million acres. The average yield per acre remained at 53.0 bushels. Soybean crushing was increased to 2.57 billion bushels, exports were reduced to 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels. The annual farm average price was lowered to $10.20 per bushel [7] - **Brazilian Weather**: A water vapor corridor is extending from northern to southeastern Brazil. Rainfall is expected to be unstable, especially in some areas. The weather in Mato Grosso is currently favorable for harvesting but will change. A new weather system will form in northern Argentina and bring rainfall to Brazil [8] - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 55% week - on - week and 13% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 17,934,546 tons, accounting for 41.8% of the annual export target [9][10] - **US Quarterly Inventory Report**: As of December 1, 2025, the inventories of US soybeans, corn, wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats were all higher than the previous year. The implied consumption from September to November 2025 showed different trends for different crops [11] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of January 8, 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.6%, exceeding last year's 0.3%. The harvest in Mato Grosso was the most active. The estimated production for the 2025/26 season is a record 180.4 million tons [12] - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions showed different changes compared to the previous day [12][14] - **Oil Mill Pressing Profits**: The pressing profits of oil mills in different locations and using different types of soybeans (domestic and imported) varied [15] 2. Related Charts - The content provides charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面 pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but specific data and analysis are not elaborated in the text [16][18][19][21][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal prices continue to decline and perform weaker than soybean meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseeds for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, there is pressure on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8980 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2330 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 623.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 64 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 256330 lots, up 11209 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 827782 lots, up 18437 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 18798 lots, down 7881 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 121734 lots, down 14391 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 2292 sheets, up 250 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9906.25 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7481.85 yuan/ton, down 54.33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 758 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 70 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 750 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.63%, up 0.44%; that of at - the - money put options is 21.64%, up 0.37%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.67%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.49%, down 0.66% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.53%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, up 0.12%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.78%, up 0.41%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.42%, up 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 9 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, but recorded a strong weekly increase. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 2.20 Canadian dollars or 0.35%, settling at 623.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report, and analysts expect a slight downward adjustment of the US soybean production forecast [2]. - The MPOB report shows that as of the end of December, the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 3.05 million tons, reaching the highest level in the same period in five years. However, high - frequency data shows that the supply side continued to reduce production this month, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in the first ten days. In addition, Indonesia may confiscate another 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year and may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy, which is beneficial to palm oil prices [2].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. It is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the uncertainty of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it will maintain the range - bound pattern [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures rise and then fall, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly. The spot premium remains at a relatively high level [18]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract rebounds from a low level [20]. - The arrival of imported rapeseed increased slightly in December, and the import cost is disturbed by the tariff expectation [23]. - The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remains at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains zero [25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish fluctuates slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is affected by soybean meal, technical factors, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The overall outlook is neutral, but the short - term trend is affected by multiple factors [9]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues affect short - term exports and reduce the domestic supply expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, Sino - Canadian trade relations are variable, and the policy of imposing additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed imports is yet to be determined [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still variable, and there is a possibility of reconciliation [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 30th to January 9th, the trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: the trading volume of soybean meal ranges from 8.1 to 48.69 million tons, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal is mostly 0, with only 0.8 million tons on January 8th. The average trading price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates from 584 to 666 [13]. - From December 30th to January 9th, the rapeseed meal futures price of the main 2605 contract ranges from 2338 to 2419, and the rapeseed meal futures price of the main 2609 contract ranges from 2407 to 2465. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranges from 2520 to 2570 [15]. - From December 29th to January 8th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are 0. On January 9th, there are 84 warehouse receipts, an increase of 84 compared with the previous day [17]. 5. Position Data - No information provided