Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil recorded its largest annual decline since 2020, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global supply, with a projected oversupply expected to continue affecting prices into 2026 [2][8] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 0.9%, settling at $57.42 per barrel, marking a 20% decline for the year [2][8] - Analysts predict that oil prices will fluctuate between $50 and $70, with uncertainties surrounding supply from Venezuela and Russia providing some price support [2][8] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices experienced their largest annual increase since 2009, rising by 42% year-to-date on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by strong demand for electrification and recent supply tightness [3][9] - The surge in copper prices outperformed other industrial metals in the market [3][9] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on the last trading day of 2025 but are still on track to achieve their largest annual gains in over 40 years, attributed to strong demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][11] - Spot gold hovered around $4,320 per ounce, while silver dipped towards $71 per ounce, with significant market volatility prompting increased margin requirements for futures [5][11] - Both metals are set for their best annual performance since 1979, driven by inflation concerns and rising debt burdens in developed economies [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing its largest annual decline since 2020, with a year-to-date drop of 18% due to oversupply and geopolitical risks, and forecasts indicate that supply-demand imbalances will worsen by 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand significantly, with projections indicating a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day by 2025, which will worsen in the following year [5]. - OPEC+ has shifted from a price-supporting strategy to increasing production to capture market share, contributing to market volatility [5]. - The U.S. shale oil production has reached historical highs, further adding to the supply, while countries like Brazil and Guyana have also increased their output [5]. Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Impact - Oil prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $50 and $70, influenced by strong production from non-OPEC countries and potential risks related to Venezuela and Russia [2][5]. - The decline in oil prices is helping to alleviate inflationary pressures, providing support for central banks in their efforts to control rising prices [2][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions remain a critical factor influencing market outlook, with the U.S. pushing for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could alleviate the backlog of Russian oil at sea [6]. - The U.S. is also detaining tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, leading to a reduction in Venezuela's production [6]. - Trump's recent comments regarding potential actions against Iran's nuclear program have previously caused oil prices to spike, indicating the sensitivity of the market to geopolitical developments [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline by approximately 20% in 2025 due to ongoing market oversupply, with prices likely remaining under pressure in the early part of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the cartel is expected to reaffirm its current production plans, indicating a relatively loose supply-demand environment following a recent increase in supply [1]. - Prior to the OPEC+ meeting, official data on the U.S. market conditions will be released, with the American Petroleum Institute reporting an increase in crude oil and refined product inventories [1]. Group 2: Price Projections - The Brent crude oil price started 2025 at approximately $75 per barrel but fell to $58.40 during the year [2]. - As 2026 approaches, the spot market may see even lower prices, although sporadic geopolitical conflicts could provide short-term price boosts [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] Core Views - The current fundamental pattern of oil prices is still dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil price center [3] - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, but do not change the oversupply situation; the market is expected to remain weak [4] - The commercial inventory of asphalt has weak de - stocking, and cost factors provide bottom support [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventory may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical conflicts lead to pulse - type price increases, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists, and the main tone of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors such as the slowdown of loading in the Middle East and Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and sanctions cause short - term market disturbances [4] - The improvement of refinery profit and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports may boost the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock, but high inventory pressure is significant [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to gradually recover; demand for marine fuel is weak and the weak trend is difficult to reverse [4] Asphalt - Last week, the commercial inventory of asphalt had weak de - stocking, and the factory inventory ended the de - stocking trend since mid - October and started to increase [5] - The US - Venezuela situation has affected the supply of heavy raw materials, and cost factors provide bottom support for asphalt [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of LME spot prices supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Showing a tendency of oscillating upward [2]. - Lead: Inventory increase is pressuring the price [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disturbances [2]. - Aluminum: Exhibiting a strong - side oscillation [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals restrict its elasticity, but attention should be paid to the policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summary of Each Section 1. Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84 with a daily decline of 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30 with a daily increase of 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140 with a daily decline of 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015 with a daily increase of 6.11% [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319 from the previous day, and the open interest was 144,462, a decrease of 21,562. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320, and the open interest was 195,074, a decrease of 30,842 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged from the previous day; the inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces) was 36,223,374, an increase of 32,119. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40,985 [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was - 2.64, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 was - 592, a decrease of 442 from the previous day [4]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate keeping rates unchanged for "some time" [4]. - Reportedly, OPEC + is likely to maintain the suspension of the production - increase plan this week due to significant supply - surplus pressure [6]. - China has advanced the plan of issuing the first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs. The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted [6]. - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [6]. - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized strengthening research on key core agricultural technologies and efficient transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and developing new high - quality agricultural productivity according to local conditions [6]. - Li Qiang proposed to refine taxpayers and the scope of taxation and determine calculation methods for taxable amounts in different situations [6]. Trend Strength - Gold trend strength: 0; Silver trend strength: 0 [6] 2. Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 98,090 with a daily decline of 0.78%, and the night - session closing price was 99,220 with a rise of 1.15%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,674 with a daily increase of 4.02% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 832,280, a decrease of 142,367 from the previous day, and the open interest was 625,625, a decrease of 17,019. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 30,309, a decrease of 34,327, and the open interest was 342,000, an increase of 1,036 [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 71,738 tons, an increase of 5,860 tons; the LME copper inventory was 149,475 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 26.21%, a decrease of 2.31% [7]. - **Spread**: The LME copper cash - to - 3M spread was 31.35, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day; the spot - to - near - month futures spread of Shanghai copper was - 240, an increase of 90 [7]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [7]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [7]. - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of the temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [7]. - From January to November 2025, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [9]. - In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13% [9]. - The Chilean government initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine. Workers will prepare for a strike if the negotiation fails [9]. - On December 29, the main project construction and core equipment installation of the second - phase expansion project of the Julong Copper Mine were completed and successfully test - run, a key step before production [9]. Trend Strength - Copper trend strength: 1 [9] 3. Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23,380 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.54%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,083.5 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 0.10% [10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 148,502 lots, a decrease of 94,405 lots; the open interest was 93,470 lots, a decrease of 217 lots. The trading volume of the LME zinc was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 232,259 lots, an increase of 4,129 lots [10]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 30 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.74 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 42,387 tons, an increase of 1,403 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons [10]. News - The 2026 national subsidy plan has new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The subsidy for new cars is 12% or 10% of the car price, with the upper limit remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy range for home appliances has been reduced, and the subsidy ratio for first - grade energy - efficient home appliances has decreased from 20% to 15%, with the maximum subsidy per appliance dropping from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [11]. - The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [11]. Trend Strength - Zinc trend strength: 1 [13] 4. Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,505 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,010.5 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 0.55% [14]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 69,782 lots, a decrease of 14,987 lots; the open interest was 53,891 lots, a decrease of 584 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead was 9,284 lots, an increase of 5,478 lots, and the open interest was 178,618 lots, an increase of 644 lots [14]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 1 lead premium was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 43.7 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.89 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 13,111 tons, an increase of 1,528 tons; the LME lead inventory was 245,275 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [14]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [15]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [15]. Trend Strength - Lead trend strength: 0 [15] 5. Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 326,330 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 2.47%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,195 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 5.46% [17]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract was 441,257 lots, a decrease of 12,067 lots, and the open interest was 43,769 lots, a decrease of 6,392 lots. The trading volume of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 180 lots, a decrease of 9 lots, and the open interest was 13,988 lots, an increase of 53 lots [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai tin inventory was 7,772 tons, a decrease of 133 tons; the LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 185 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 339,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton [17]. News - Similar to the news in the gold and silver section, including Fed rate - cut expectations, OPEC + production - plan news, China's subsidy and bond - issuance news, etc. [18] Trend Strength - Tin trend strength: 1 [19] 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum 3M closed at 2,987 US dollars/ton, an increase of 38 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai aluminum main - contract trading volume was 369,628 lots, a decrease of 248,997 lots, and the open interest was 267,707 lots, a decrease of 21,548 lots [20]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume was 699,429 lots, a decrease of 609,434 lots, and the open interest was 404,205 lots, an increase of 7,530 lots [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 9,685 lots, an increase of 546 lots, and the open interest was 15,866 lots, an increase of 9,810 lots [20]. News - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [22]. - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [22]. Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 1; Alumina trend strength: 0; Aluminum alloy trend strength: 1 [22] 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 132,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,680 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton [24]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 1,000,602 lots, an increase of 215,362 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 298,305 lots, an increase of 33,281 lots [24]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 129,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 913 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [24]. News - In September, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [24]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [25]. - The Indonesian government has sanctioned 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [25]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval procedure for mines in 2026 [26]. - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [26]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain nickel products [27]. - Safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks have affected the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with an expected impact of about 6,000 nickel metal tons in December [27]. - In November, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [27]. - China will implement export - license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the nickel - ore production target in 2026 from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [28]. - Fifty Indonesian nickel - mining enterprises face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land [28]. Trend Strength - Nickel trend strength: 0; Stainless - steel trend strength: 0 [29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short - term trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable) [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not fundamentally changed the pattern of oversupply in the energy market, and most energy products are expected to be under pressure [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the US - Ukraine talks, the geopolitical premium has a pulsed impact on oil prices, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists. The US Department of Energy predicts that in 2026, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventories may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [1] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are short - term fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil has potential demand support, but high inventory pressure is significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to increased supply and lack of strong demand [2] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been at a low level in the past four years. The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose, and it will return to a price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The domestic key refining project price difference is 2557.23 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +11.87 CNY/ton (+0.47%), while the international key refining project price difference is 1254.57 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -43.45 CNY/ton (-3.35%) [2][3] - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending December 26, 2025, is 61.73 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +2.74% [2][3] - The refining sector is affected by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Russia, which have led to supply concerns and fluctuations in oil prices [2][15] - The chemical sector is experiencing weak demand, leading to a downward shift in chemical product prices [2][49] - Polyester production has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with downstream demand improving, which has positively impacted upstream prices [2][55] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude prices at 60.64 and 56.74 USD/barrel respectively, showing slight increases [2][15] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6566.86, 7622.14, and 5716.07 CNY/ton respectively [2][15] Chemical Sector - The report notes a decline in demand for chemical products, with prices for polyethylene and EVA showing downward trends [2][55] - The average price for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE is reported as 9000.00, 6329.29, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding price differences from crude oil [2][55] Polyester & Nylon Sector - The polyester sector has seen a significant increase in production and sales, with a notable reduction in inventory levels and a slight increase in prices for polyester filament yarn [2][55] - The report indicates that the nylon filament prices remain stable, with slight improvements in price differences [2][55] Stock Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Hengli Petrochemical (+11.01%) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (+12.12%) over the past week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a wide - range oscillation. The international crude oil price rebounded due to the tense US - Venezuela relations, strengthening cost support and causing concerns about supply tightening at the raw material end, which supported the asphalt market. However, the weak fundamental situation of asphalt restricted the rebound height as the开工 rate and weekly output of domestic asphalt sample enterprises increased, and both factory and social inventories rose, indicating great pressure on downstream demand. In the future, with the expectation of supply surplus, there is significant pressure for continuous strengthening of crude oil. Although the tense US - Venezuela relations may cause disturbances, considering the substitution of domestic raw material sources, the actual impact may be limited, mainly reflected as a bullish sentiment, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate widely [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The US has increased efforts to seize Venezuelan oil tankers; the negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan continues; the EIA data release is postponed to next week [7][8]. - **Key Data**: As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons; the social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons [8]. - **Main Views**: The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [8][9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Disturbances at the raw material end; the implementation of winter storage policies provides a floor price support for the market [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Weakening demand; a month - on - month increase in supply [12]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Initial Jobless Claims**: On December 24, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 20 dropped to 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000, indicating no obvious pressure in the labor market [13]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 15.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 84.5%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.2%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 51.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 6% [13]. - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the Fed chairman he nominates will cut interest rates when the economy is good [13]. - **US - Ukraine and US - Russia Meetings**: The US - Ukraine meeting in Miami from December 19 - 21 focused on a "20 - point peace plan" draft, and Zelensky confirmed the completion of the initial draft. The US - Russia meeting in Miami from December 20 - 21 was considered "productive and constructive". The market expects geopolitical risks to ease, and there are concerns that Russian oil inflow after a cease - fire agreement may exacerbate supply surplus and suppress oil prices [14]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons, with a decrease in refineries and increases in Sinopec, CNPC, and local refineries. As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points, mainly due to raw material disturbances, but it is expected to decline as the downstream is in the off - season. Supply is expected to remain at a low level for the year [16][24]. - **Demand**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 40.4 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons from the previous statistical period, showing a phased rebound due to winter storage demand and refinery restarts, but still restricted by weak northern demand and high inventory. As of December 26, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 7.1%, down 0.56 percentage points from last week, and it is expected to continue to decline seasonally [25][28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's factory inventory was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons, with increases in East and South China and decreases in Shandong and Northwest China. The social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons, ending the destocking trend since August, indicating weakening downstream demand [34][42]. - **Spread**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 399 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. As of December 25, the domestic asphalt basis was 95 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.3. Due to strong oil prices, the cracking spread decreased, and the falling spot price led to a weaker basis, indicating pressure in the spot market [51]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical tensions and winter storage policies provide some support, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Supply pressure has increased, and inventories have risen. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [53].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 周四在欧美市场休假期间国内SC原油上涨2.2元/桶，涨幅约0.5%；其中在周四夜盘开盘后一度快速冲高 1%，高硫燃料油更是大涨超2%。因欧美市场休市之际地缘层面仍有扰动，夜盘开盘前市场传出消息乌 军使用"风暴阴影"导弹袭击了俄罗斯罗斯托夫州的新沙赫廷斯克炼油厂，引发多处爆炸。乌克兰总参谋 部在Telegram平台上发布的声明中指出，该炼油厂是俄罗斯南部最大的石油产品供应商之一，并参与对 俄军部队的燃料供应。不过此前俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示俄罗斯已补充了在高需求时期使用的石油产品 库存，目前库存甚至高于一年前。 后市观点 周四中国和俄罗斯官方均对美国对委内瑞拉的封锁进行了谴责，俄罗斯外交部更是称其"复活加勒比海 盗行径"，地缘层面继续支撑油价。另外相对于油价近期的反弹，国内的贵金属及其他部分商品的大幅 波动更是引入关注，过去一段时间国内文华商品指数8连阳，大宗商品市场风险偏好整体升温，虽然原 油不是热点，但整体情绪乐观也在一定程度上推动了油价的反弹。整体来看地缘驱动的反弹已经面临上 档关键阻力，供应过剩背景下油价继续上涨空间有限 ...

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