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欧佩克+同意自下月起进一步增产13.7万桶/日 争夺市场份额优先于维持油价
智通财经网· 2025-09-07 23:38
一位代表表示,该组织希望销量的进一步增长能够抵消因价格下降而造成的收入损失。这表明,与欧佩 克+组织近十年前成立以来所推行的策略相比,目前的策略出现了逆转。 智通财经APP获悉,欧佩克+(OPEC+)决定加快释放其暂时未向市场供应的另一部分石油,因为该组织 坚持将夺回市场份额置于价格之上这一策略不变。在周日的视频会议中,该组织核心成员国已批准一项 计划:自10月起,每日新增约13.7万桶石油产量,并将持续这一增产节奏至明年9月,这是更大规模的 每日165万桶供应量的一部分。这意味着,原本计划至2026年底前始终处于"减产搁置"状态的每日165万 桶石油产能,如今将以远快于此前预期的速度恢复供应。 此举标志着欧佩克+正加速取消"下一轮供应削减"措施。欧佩克+在近几个月里令石油市场大为意外, 他们提前一年恢复了原计划暂停的 220 万桶石油产量,旨在夺回市场份额,尽管市场普遍预期会出现供 应过剩的局面。 欧佩克+在一份声明中表示,将逐步恢复全部或部分165万桶石油供应,但未给出具体时间或增量安 排。该组织强调,这一措施将取决于市场状况,并表示如果有必要,甚至可以暂停或逆转此前的增产举 措。与会代表私下透露了更多细 ...
OPEC+“原则上同意”:10月扩产
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-07 03:46
Group 1 - OPEC+ has "principally agreed" to increase production in October, marking a strategic shift towards pursuing market share rather than defending prices [1] - The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, plans to approve an increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day, starting to lift previous production cuts [1][3] - The decision aims to restore a previously reduced production of 1.66 million barrels per day, which was initially set to last until the end of 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia is pushing for an early execution of the production increase plan to reclaim market share lost to competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [3] - If OPEC+ maintains the monthly increase of about 137,000 barrels, the full withdrawal of the 1.66 million barrels per day cut could occur within a year [3] - Despite a 12% decline in oil prices this year due to increased supply and global trade market turmoil, the market has shown unexpected resilience to OPEC+'s strategic shift [3] Group 3 - The oil options market indicates a strong bearish sentiment, with the trading volume of December 55-dollar put options reaching a new high since early April [5] - The price of December 60-dollar put options surged from $0.59 to $1.35 in three days, reflecting heightened demand for downside risk protection [5] Group 4 - Analysts predict that further production increases will exacerbate the anticipated supply surplus in Q4, putting additional downward pressure on oil prices [6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that non-OPEC countries (excluding the U.S.) will drive a global market surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day by 2026 [6]
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 00:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have room for growth. It is a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [2]. - For methanol, the short - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to move within a range at a low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low prices [6]. - For rubber, it is advisable to maintain a bullish view in the medium - term. In the short - term, it is expected that the rubber price will be strong, and a bullish approach is recommended, buying on dips and exiting quickly [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong domestic supply, weak demand, and high valuation, and the weakening export expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [14]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long - term [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, the valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to follow the crude oil and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak season arrives [23][24]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak - season downstream performance improves [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the mid - term valuation has a downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 10.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.20% decline, at 481.00 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed inventory increases in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a 2.40% decline, at 2760.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 113.00 yuan/ton, a 3.21% decline, at 3412.00 yuan/ton [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: On September 4, the 01 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 2378 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 8 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133. Domestic production has further increased, and coal prices have slightly declined. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high level, and the import pressure remains. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and the profit has continuously improved, but the traditional demand is still weak [4]. - **Urea**: On September 4, the 01 contract remained stable at 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of - 14. The enterprise profit has further declined, the supply - side production has significantly decreased, and the demand is weak. The port inventory has continued to increase [6]. - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated strongly. Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has significantly increased, and the rubber price is likely to rise. As of September 5, 2025, the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 58.70%, down 4.08 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 69.07%, down 5.5 percentage points from last week and 9.60 percentage points from the same period last year [9][11]. - **PVC**: The PVC01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4883 yuan. The cost side remained stable, the overall PVC operating rate was 76%, a 1.6% decline. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a 0.1% decline. The factory inventory was 31.2 (+0.6) million tons, and the social inventory was 89.6 (+4.4) million tons [14]. - **Styrene**: The spot price increased, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The port inventory has continued to increase significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory starts to decline [16][18]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price decreased. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The supply - side has only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level. The downstream average operating rate is 40.5%, a 0.20% increase [20]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price decreased. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21]. - **PX**: The PX11 contract fell 130 yuan to 6680 yuan. The PX load in China was 83.3%, a 1.3% decline; the Asian load was 75.6%, a 0.7% decline. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 376,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,000 tons [23]. - **PTA**: The PTA01 contract fell 76 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 29 was 2.12 million tons, a decrease of 84,000 tons [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG01 contract rose 26 yuan to 4357 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.1%, a 1% decline. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The port inventory was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons [26].
邓正红能源软实力:欧佩克增产博弈 经济数据疲软削弱需求预期 油价承压走低
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 00:53
危机管控维度:过剩预期的软实力防御。IEA预警的认知干预,国际能源署提前释放供应过剩信号,是典型的风险预期管理策略。通过塑造"未来过剩"的集 体认知,提前消化价格下跌压力,这种"预期软实力"比实际库存数据更具市场价值效应。中国刺激政策的缓冲阀作用,作为最大原油进口国,中国的经济政 策动向构成关键软实力变量。若中国出台强刺激,可能重塑"需求端叙事",对冲供应过剩的负面预期——这正是花旗与汇丰预测差异的核心变量。 欧佩克增产博弈与地缘冲突交织,油价承压走低。美国经济数据疲软削弱需求预期,而乌克兰无人机打击正改写能源安全规则。专家警告供应过剩将至,市 场静待中美政策转向。石油软实力面临结构性调整,传统产油国需在价格与份额间重建共识。邓正红软实力表示,报道称欧佩克联盟联盟将在周末开会时考 虑新一轮增产,美国经济数据弱于预期,打击市场对原油长期需求的预期,石油软实力承压,周三(9月3日)国际油价走低。截至收盘,纽约商品期货交易 所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶跌1.62美元至63.97美元,跌幅2.47%;伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油11月期货结算价每桶跌1.54美元至67.60美元, 跌幅2.23%。 美国总统特 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:印尼扰动影响有限,沪镍价格小幅回落-20250903
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 06:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising material costs, and news - based stimulation. Future attention should be paid to the demand during the consumption peak season [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 123,210 yuan/ton and closed at 122,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 128,782 lots, and the open interest was 90,762 lots [1] - In the futures market, affected by the Indonesian event, the Shanghai nickel main contract continued to rise after the night - session opening, reaching a maximum of 123,810 yuan/ton, then fell back and fluctuated around 123,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, it dropped rapidly after the day - session opening, rebounded later, and dived again at the end of the session [1] - The price of nickel ore remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was acceptable. The bullish sentiment of downstream ferronickel strengthened. In Indonesia, the supply was relatively loose, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase I) decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars [1] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was acceptable, and the premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable [2] - **Strategy** - For the short - term, nickel prices will mainly fluctuate, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,629 lots, and the open interest was 91,035 lots [3] - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract continued to strengthen after the night - session opening and fluctuated slightly between 123,005 - 123,020 yuan/ton. After the day - session opening, affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel, the price slightly declined but still maintained a high - level fluctuating trend, with an amplitude of less than 100 yuan/ton throughout the day [3] - In the spot market, driven by the futures market, the list prices of large stainless steel manufacturers increased, and the market quotes followed suit. However, the downstream acceptance was low, and the actual trading was relatively sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 305 to 605 yuan/ton [3] - **Strategy** - The stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]
光大期货能化商品日报-20250903
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 03:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]
原油日报:纳亚拉炼厂因制裁无法进口中东原油-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:52
Group 1: Market News and Important Data - SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.10%, at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - In June, US crude oil production hit a record high, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products rose to the highest level since October 2024. US LNG production increased by 12,000 barrels per day, reaching 748,400 barrels per day [1] - Saudi Aramco and Iraq's SOMO suspended oil sales to Nayara Energy. Nayara's August crude imports rely entirely on Russia due to payment difficulties caused by sanctions [1] - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to keep oil production unchanged this weekend, halting previous production increases. IEA warns of significant supply surplus by year - end [1] - Indian refiners are buying more US crude oil, which may help reduce India's trade surplus with the US [1] - ONGC executives say they'll keep buying Russian oil if prices are right [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Saudi Arabia is artificially controlling oil shipments. Despite Dubai prices being strong, eastern refiners have more options due to increased Latin American supply and open arbitrage windows [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term, oil prices will trade in a range; medium - term, bearish allocation is recommended [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts [4]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-09-01 09:04
#报告 高盛:高盛:铜供应过剩将使LME铜价稳定维持到年底,而“反内卷”对铝的价格支撑......None (@None):None ...
原油成品油早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price declined on Friday. At the end of the peak refinery operation season in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The contango of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while that of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. The refining margins of European and American refineries declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the diesel crack spread in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have slightly increased, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased seasonally, the absolute inventory is at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil contango is expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. The market focuses on the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the expected adjustment of European autumn maintenance, the forecast of the European diesel crack spread in the fourth quarter is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 25 - 29, 2025, WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59, BRENT decreased by $1.14, and DUBAI increased by $0.01. Among other related indicators, SC increased by 3.50, OMAN decreased by 0.83, etc. [3] 2. Daily News - The CEO of a Russian oil company expects the global oil market surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [3]. - Hedge funds have significantly reduced their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level since 2007 due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 lots to 24,225 lots, the lowest since January 2007, and short - only bets on WTI crude oil reached a 20 - month high [3]. - The U.S. Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico crude oil production reached 1.92 million barrels per day in June 2025, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - Due to increased production from major oil - producing countries and U.S. tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.65 per barrel, and that of U.S. crude oil is $64.65 per barrel [4]. - Despite sanctions and U.S. tariffs, Russia's oil exports to India will increase by 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day in September [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. U.S. crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5][6].
大越期货原油周报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices oscillated last week. WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical tensions initially supported oil prices, but mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - Due to increased supply from OPEC+ and lackluster global demand, there is a greater prospect of market surplus in 2025 and 2026, which may push down prices [6]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support oil prices as the possibility of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low [6]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical talks between the US, Ukraine, Russia, and the EU were deadlocked, and Russia's repeated attacks on Kiev supported oil prices in the early part of the week. Mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - As of the week of August 26, the speculative net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 23,848 contracts to 206,543 contracts; the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures held by speculators decreased by 10,737 contracts to 109,472 contracts [5]. - A US judge panel upheld a previous ruling that Trump wrongly invoked an emergency law to impose tariffs, and the US government has time to appeal to the Supreme Court [5]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - Ukraine's attack on 10 Russian refineries has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. 3.2 Related Information - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and it may continue to increase production, which could lead to a large supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 and push down prices [6]. - Most respondents believe that Trump's threat to Russian crude oil buyers has limited impact on the oil market as OPEC+ and other suppliers can fill the supply gap [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The current prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Chinese Shengli crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and OPEC's basket of crude oil prices are $67.62, $64.16, $70.09, $65.60, $70.16, and $70.10 respectively, with changes of - 0.29, 1.03, 1.16, 1.04, 1.19, and 0.91 and percentage changes of - 0.43%, 1.63%, 1.68%, 1.62%, 1.73%, and 1.31% respectively [10]. - **Cushing Inventory**: As of August 22, the Cushing inventory was 22.632 million barrels, a decrease of 838,000 barrels [11]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of August 22, the EIA inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a decrease of 2.392 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **CFTC Fund Net - Long Positions**: As of August 26, the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 109,472 contracts, a decrease of 10,737 contracts [18]. - **ICE Fund Net - Long Positions**: As of August 26, the net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures were 206,543 contracts, an increase of 23,848 contracts [19].