巴西IBOVESPA指数是拉丁美洲规模最大、历史最悠久的股票市场基准指数，该指数包含了约80家巴西 最具代表性的上市公司，覆盖了巴西在国际上具有比较优势的矿业和农业等产业，金融和能源行业的权 重比较高，成份股大致可归类为以下几个方向： 今日市场下跌，巴西ETF逆势上涨。 资源与能源类：淡水河谷（全球最大铁矿石生产商之一）、巴西石油公司； 金融类：布拉德斯科银行、伊塔屋投资银行、巴西银行； 消费与公用事业类：安贝夫（拉美饮料巨头）、巴西电力； 工业与其他：巴西航空工业公司、WEG SA（电机与自动化公司）。 （原标题：巴西ETF逆势上涨，跨境ETF迎来快速发展期，规模已逼近万亿元大关） 巴西ETF均跟踪巴西的IBOVESPA ETF指数，但不是直接投资巴西股票，而是分别挂钩巴西两家资管公 司的ETF产品，其中，易方达巴西ETF挂钩巴西伊塔乌资管旗下产品，华夏巴西ETF挂钩巴西布拉德斯 科资管公司旗下产品。 当前巴西IBOVESPA指数的市盈率10.51倍，处于近10年43.46%分位数；指数股息率7%，处于近10年 73.31%分位数。 近年来，跨境ETF迎来快速发展期，规模已逼近万亿元大关。据Wind数据显示 ...

宏观面和供应面利好共振 2026年铜矿供应紧张，精铜生产放缓，供应端压力减轻，而在全球新型电力系统建设提速背景下，铜需 求增长可期。美国关税预期将持续"虹吸"全球铜库存，从而造成非美地区出现铜库存结构性短缺。基本 面支撑较强，叠加全球流动性宽松提供偏多宏观氛围，中期继续看涨。 从库存端来看，2025年以来，中国社库累积4.7万吨，保税区累库5.6万吨，LME去库10.6万吨，COMEX 累库32.4万吨，全球总库存累积32.1万吨，至81.2万吨。全球总库存增加明显，主要库存堆积在COMEX 市场，中国累库量和LME去库量相当。这一现象主要是由美国铜关税预期引发的，这一因素在2026年 将吸引全球可交割铜货源继续流向美国市场，从而导致非美地区的精铜实际可流通供应持续偏紧，形 成"全球总库存不低，但区域结构性短缺"的局面，非美地区将持续面临去库压力。 从宏观面来看，美元指数承压以及中国经济稳定增长为铜市提供支撑。美联储12月如期降息，美国财政 赤字问题与美联储主席换届预计将持续施压美元指数。中国继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，坚持"双碳"引领推动全面绿色转型。 综合来看，短期现货需求受到抑制， ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have entered a new upward trend since late November, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-side concerns, with expectations of continued support through 2026 [1] Supply Side Summary - Over 3 million tons of smelting capacity is expected to be added in 2025-2026, outpacing copper mine supply growth, which will continue to dominate refined copper supply [2] - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is currently at -42.86 USD/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper mine supply [2] - Major new copper mine projects expected to contribute to supply include the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine and the Mirador Phase II project, with a projected increase of 540,000 tons in global copper mine supply by 2026 [2] - The next significant release of copper mine capacity is not expected until 2028, maintaining a tight supply situation for copper concentrates through 2026 [2] Demand Side Summary - High copper prices have led to a decline in operating rates for refined copper products, with a notable increase in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper, highlighting a substitution effect [3] - Despite short-term demand suppression, there is no significant pessimism in the market, as copper plays a crucial role in the global transition to green energy and electrification [3] - The demand for copper is shifting from traditional sectors to new energy systems, with significant growth expected in global grid investment and data centers, projected to increase by 20% annually from 2026 to 2028 [3] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to see explosive growth starting in 2025, further driving copper demand [3] Inventory Summary - Since 2025, total global copper inventory has increased significantly, with notable accumulations in COMEX and a structural shortage in non-US regions due to expectations of US copper tariffs [4] - The macroeconomic environment, including a pressured US dollar and stable growth in the Chinese economy, is providing support for the copper market [4] - While short-term demand is suppressed, the overall supply pressure is easing, and the construction of new energy systems is expected to drive copper demand growth, leading to a slight reduction in copper inventory by 2026 [4]

【定调2026，中央经济工作会议最新解读！对市场影响几何？】中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北 京举行，会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。继12月8日中央政治局 会议分析研究2026年经济工作，提出明年8项重点任务后，中央经济工作会议在此基础上进一步细化重 点任务的政策安排和目标，并在财政货币政策、政策关键着力点等方面提出具体部署。先来看重点内 容：1.灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制。2.引导金融 机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。3.继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有 效激发民间投资活力。4.制定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治"内卷式"竞争。5.深入推进中小金融 机构减量提质，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革。6.深化外商投资促进体制机制改革。7.促进粮食等 重要农产品价格保持在合理水平。8.加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。9.制定能源强国建设规划纲要， 加快新型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应用。10.着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供 给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。（期货日报） 来源 ...

从风险收益表现来看，截至11月30日，国债及政金债0-3指数近3年年化回报2.44%，最大回撤-0.32%，年化夏普比率3.43，相 对其他主要利率债风险收益比更优。 | | 区间收益率 | 年化收益率 | 量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债及政金债0-3 | 7.25% | 2.44% | -0.32% | 3.43 | | 国债及政金债3-5 | 10.88% | 3.62% | -1.15% | 2.52 | | 国债及政会债7-10 | 16.48% | 5.39% | -2.26% | 2.19 | | 中债-3-5年国开行债券全价(总 值)指数 | 0.46% | 0.15% | -3.06% | -0.53 | | 中债-7-10年国开行债券指数全 价(总值)指数 | -0.37% | -0.12% | -1.56% | -1.59 | | 中债-0-3年政策性金融债全价 (总值)指数 | 10.88% | 3.62% | -1.15% | 2.52 | 数据来源：Wind，数据区间2022.12.1-2025.11.30。指数过往业绩不代表未来 ...

来源：市场资讯 LPR利率公布：日历显示，12月22日将公布国内最新LPR利率报价，为国内货币信贷环境提供最新指 引。 贷款市场报价利率(LPR)作为我国金融市场重要的基准利率，LPR调整反映货币政策走向。而2021 年下调的次数为1次，22年、24年分别为3次，23年为2次，平均为2.25次，而目前25年下调的次数仅1 次。随着12月美联储降息预期升温。市场大概率会在最早12月或者25年上半年迎来新一轮货币宽松预 期，明年上半年下调LPR利率大概率是板上钉钉的事情。 对股市的影响：一般LPR下调通常预示着货币宽松，能降低企业融资成本增厚上市公司利润，可能会吸 引资金存款搬家，提振市场信心，推动市场向好。当然，若调整符合市场预期，影响可能较小；若超预 期，则可能引发波动。 （来源：Gangtise投研） 年末投资事件多点花开，压轴事件层出不穷！12月作为2025年收官关键月，机器人、算力、AI等硬核 科技赛道持续引燃市场，美联储货币政策调整引发全球瞩目，海南自贸港、影视游戏等领域也迎来政策 与技术双重催化。本文基于12月核心投资大事件，带你跳出时间线，从宏观、行业、公司三大维度自上 而下解读分析，深挖12月的 ...

Group 1 - The core expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has surged to 86%, driven by solid economic data and policy signals, nearly doubling from 32.7% on November 20 [1][2] - Key factors supporting this expectation include inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target, a cooling job market with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, dovish statements from Fed officials, and signs of economic growth pressure [2][4] Group 2 - A critical week for the A-share market is approaching, with significant events from December 2 to December 9 that could reshape market expectations, including speeches from Fed officials and key economic data releases [4][5] - The most pivotal event will be the Fed's December meeting on December 9, which will determine whether to cut rates and provide guidance on monetary policy for 2026, impacting global liquidity pricing [5] Group 3 - If the Fed cuts rates, the primary impact on A-shares will be global liquidity easing and foreign capital inflow, benefiting several sectors [6] - The technology growth sector is expected to benefit from lower financing costs, particularly in semiconductors, AI, and new energy, with significant inflows into the electronic industry [6][7] - The resource cycle and gold sectors may also gain, as rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices, while gold becomes more attractive as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Group 4 - Domestic policy support is evident, with the People's Bank of China implementing rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, creating a favorable environment for foreign capital inflow [7] - Retail investors are advised to focus on key sectors, manage positions carefully, and avoid pitfalls such as blindly chasing high-flying stocks or ignoring policy risks [8][9] - The focus should be on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as leading electronic and new energy stocks, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks that offer dividends [8][9]

Group 1 - The current market is in a consolidation phase of a slow bull market, allowing for a temporary pause before resuming upward momentum [6][7][20] - The slow bull market is characterized by alternating phases of growth and consolidation, with significant market movements observed in specific time frames [8][11][13][15] - Key factors driving the slow bull market include supportive policies, focus on economic development, and ongoing global liquidity [22][25][26] Group 2 - The market is expected to oscillate between the high points of November and the low points of September during the consolidation phase [28] - Dividend-paying assets are likely to perform well during this period, while growth-style assets should be accumulated at lower prices [29] - Potential catalysts for breaking out of the consolidation phase include economic stimulus policies, breakthroughs in key technology sectors, and funding flows driven by higher-level decisions [29]

Core Viewpoint - The configuration value of the Hong Kong technology sector continues to stand out in the fourth quarter due to the resonance of internal and external factors [1] External Factors - The Federal Reserve has initiated a preventive interest rate cut cycle, historically indicating that such cycles often provide significant elasticity for cyclical stocks, with the technology sector being a primary beneficiary as a growth asset [1] - Global liquidity easing and domestic industrial upgrades further enhance the growth potential of the Hong Kong technology sector, which is expected to experience a robust market in the fourth quarter [1] Internal Factors - China's economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, supported by new productivity cultivation achievements, providing a solid fundamental backing for the technology sector [1] Market Valuation - According to a Morgan Stanley report, despite a significant year-to-date increase in the MSCI Hong Kong Index, its valuation remains below the ten-year average, making it one of the cheapest stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding ASEAN [1] - This valuation advantage has attracted continuous foreign capital inflow, with passive funds accumulating a total of $18 billion into the Chinese stock market by the end of September [1] Investment Perspective - Foreign institutions generally view the Hong Kong technology sector as having both valuation safety margins and industry growth potential, making it an indispensable part of global asset allocation amid increasing market volatility [1] Related ETFs - Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers the entire technology industry chain [1] - Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing investment in AI by major tech companies and the favorable liquidity environment, suggesting that Hong Kong tech assets may benefit from these trends [1]. Group 1: AI Investment and Market Trends - AWS has signed a $38 billion agreement to provide computing power to OpenAI, utilizing hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs, with all target capacity to be delivered by the end of 2026 [1]. - Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials have strengthened market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a potential 50 basis point cut if future economic data aligns with expectations [1]. Group 2: Hong Kong Tech Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) has seen significant inflows, with 12 out of 15 trading days since October 13, 2025, resulting in a total of 3.495 billion yuan in net inflows, and its latest share count reaching a record high of 52.778 billion [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index, which the ETF closely tracks, includes 30 leading Hong Kong tech companies across various sectors, making it a representative index for foreign investors [1]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index is at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.85, which is in the lower range of the past five years [1]. - The trading volume of the Hang Seng Tech Index accounts for 26.66% of the total Hang Seng Index, also reflecting a lower position compared to the past five years [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) and its associated funds are positioned as quality tools for investors looking to gain exposure to the Hong Kong tech sector [1]. Group 4: Fund Performance - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) has shown varying performance since its inception, with returns of -30.24%, -21.43%, -8.89%, 21.13%, and 16.37% for the years 2021 to the first half of 2025, respectively [2].