Technology Sector - The secondary market is seeing leading gains in ETFs such as the AI ETF (159381), 5G Communication ETF (515050), and AI ETF (515070), indicating a shift towards a capital-driven phase in the technology sector, with increased volatility expected [1] - The China Computing Power Conference has announced policies to accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies like GPU chips and expand the supply of basic common technologies, alongside the opening of overseas large models [1] - The technology sector is showing signs of reaching a phase of high points, with the potential for decreasing second derivatives, suggesting a rising probability of volatility, which can be managed through high-low switching strategies; software, consumer electronics, and gaming sectors remain in a healthy sentiment range [1] Overseas Liquidity Easing - Expectations of overseas interest rate cuts have led to significant gains in ETFs such as the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650), Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [2] - At the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell indicated that inflationary pressures from tariffs may be temporary, while employment weakness is rising, suggesting a potential adjustment in monetary policy, which could pave the way for a new round of global interest rate cuts [2] - Following weak labor data in the U.S. since early August, Powell's dovish remarks provide a foundation for anticipated rate cuts in September, which may strengthen the non-ferrous metals sector and enhance its valuation recovery potential [2] - Hong Kong technology stocks, particularly those with high "AI content," are seen as undervalued, with rising expectations for a rebound in overall valuations as liquidity improves and regulatory policies support competition among platform enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The current pricing factor of A-shares is driven by liquidity and risk appetite rather than earnings, with July economic data reflecting weak fundamentals in production, consumption, and investment [15][16] - The influx of retail investors is accelerating, with July A-share account openings reaching 1.9636 million, a month-on-month increase of 19.27% and a year-on-year increase of 70.54%, indicating significant room for further retail participation [15][16] - The ratio of margin financing to A-share market capitalization is at a historically healthy level, with margin financing reaching 2.15 trillion, but only accounting for 2.3% of the A-share market, significantly lower than the historical peak of 4.72% [16][27] Group 2 - Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have opened the door for potential rate cuts in September, which is expected to boost risk appetite for A-shares under a backdrop of global liquidity easing [17][30] - The sentiment reflected in the stock index options volatility indicates that there is still considerable distance from extreme optimism levels, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a euphoric state [16][28] - The current ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization stands at 1.7, indicating substantial downward potential for household deposits, as seen in previous bullish market phases [16][27]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a significant increase of over 3% in early trading, driven by gains in major tech stocks such as Baidu, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Meituan, and Tencent, with Baidu rising by 5.37% to HKD 90.25 and Alibaba increasing by 5.17% to HKD 124.1 [1] - A new draft regulation titled "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" has been released for public consultation, focusing on pricing autonomy, price marking behavior, competitive pricing, and consumer price rights protection, consisting of 30 articles across seven chapters [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech Index has underperformed in the current market cycle, influenced by the "takeaway battle" affecting profit expectations and the weak Hong Kong dollar leading to liquidity tightening by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [2] - Since the end of June, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has been withdrawing liquidity to stabilize the currency, resulting in a return to normal liquidity levels and a significant appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, suggesting limited room for further tightening [2] - At the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that adjustments to policy may be necessary due to changes in the balance of risks, which could enhance expectations for global liquidity easing and improve the liquidity outlook for Hong Kong stocks, indicating potential for a rebound in the Hang Seng Tech Index [2]

Market Performance - On August 25, the rare earth magnetic materials sector saw significant gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Dadi Bear rising over 10%, and Northern Rare Earth increasing by over 8% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with companies such as Zhangyuan Tungsten and Northern Copper hitting the daily limit, and Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 7%, reaching a historical high [1] Stock Highlights - Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ) reached a price of 13.38 with a gain of 10.03% and a market cap of 159.90 billion [3] - Northern Copper (000737.SZ) increased to 12.50, up 10.04%, with a market cap of 238.07 billion [3] - Hunan Silver (002716.SZ) also saw a rise of 10.00%, reaching a price of 5.39 and a market cap of 119.14 billion [3] Regulatory Developments - On August 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly announced the "Interim Measures for Total Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation," effective immediately [5] - The measures require rare earth production companies to establish a tracking system for rare earth product flows and report this information monthly [5] Industry Insights - The recent implementation of the interim measures marks the beginning of significant supply-side reforms in the rare earth industry, with a notable increase in magnetic material exports in July, up 75% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, indicating potential for further recovery [6] - The demand for magnetic materials in the electric vehicle sector is expected to grow by nearly 20% this year, with wind power and industrial robotics also showing strong growth prospects [6] - Short-term supply and demand dynamics are shifting, with expectations of improved demand as the peak season approaches, providing support for prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has boosted market expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to upward support for non-ferrous metal prices due to marginal global liquidity easing [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Domestic fiscal and financial policies are continuously working to unleash domestic demand potential, combined with U.S. economic data indicating a possible soft landing, which has increased market risk appetite [1] - Industrial metals are transitioning between peak and off-peak seasons; although inventories continue to accumulate, certain varieties are affected by supply-side maintenance and seasonal disruptions, alongside gradually increasing demand during peak seasons, which may improve the supply-demand balance and support prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - In the context of a global monetary system restructuring, non-ferrous metals are expected to continue performing well in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies engaged in non-ferrous metal mining, smelting, and related businesses to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - The index constituents exhibit strong cyclical characteristics and are influenced by global economic conditions, supply-demand changes, and policy factors [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a significant increase of over 3% in early trading, driven by gains in major tech stocks such as Baidu, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Meituan, and Tencent, with Baidu rising by 5.37% to HKD 90.25 and Alibaba increasing by 5.17% to HKD 124.1 [1] - A new draft regulation titled "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" has been publicly released for consultation, focusing on pricing autonomy, price marking behavior, competitive pricing, and consumer price rights protection, consisting of 30 articles across seven chapters [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech Index has underperformed in the current market cycle, attributed to the impact of the "food delivery war" on profit expectations and the weak Hong Kong dollar leading to liquidity tightening by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [2] - Since the end of June, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has been actively withdrawing liquidity to stabilize the currency, resulting in a return to normal liquidity levels in the banking sector, with the Hong Kong dollar showing significant appreciation [2] - The recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting suggest a potential shift towards a more dovish policy stance, which may enhance liquidity expectations for Hong Kong stocks and provide a rebound opportunity for the underperforming Hang Seng Tech Index [2]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is drawing attention, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to mixed performance in the Asia-Pacific markets, with Southeast Asian stock markets mostly declining [1] - The Thai SET index fell by 0.48% to 1253.39 points, while the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh index rose by 1.04% to 1647.03 points [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis of Thailand - Thailand's economy grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, slightly above market expectations but lower than the previous quarter's 3.2% [2] - The economic growth rate decreased from 0.7% in Q1 to 0.6% in Q2, with exports being the main driver, although challenges from U.S. tariff policies and declining tourism are expected to hinder sustainability [2][4] - Capital Economics forecasts Thailand's GDP growth at 2.7% for 2025, only slightly above 2024's 2.5% [3] Group 3: Regional Economic Performance - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q2 2023 [4] - Singapore's GDP grew by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, driven by pre-tariff export activities [5] Group 4: Stock Market Trends in Southeast Asia - Malaysia's stock market has faced continuous net selling for 20 days, with global funds selling $12.9 million worth of Malaysian stocks on August 21 [6] - Foreign investors' holdings in Thai stocks decreased by 24% in the first half of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, with the SET index down by 10.49% as of August 22 [7] - The decline in foreign investment in Thailand is attributed to political uncertainties and a lack of appeal in traditional business sectors compared to growing tech investments [7] Group 5: Monetary Policy Developments - Indonesia's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, marking the fourth cut this year [8] - Following the rate cut, the Indonesian stock market reacted positively, with the benchmark index rising over 1% [8] - Analysts remain optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth potential, with Citibank projecting a 5.4% growth target for 2026 [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing 0.46% and closing below 3700 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.87% and 1.08% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 23062.83 billion yuan, ranking as the tenth highest single-day turnover since the "924" market [1] - A total of 735 stocks rose, while 4648 stocks fell, indicating a median decline of 2.06% in stock performance, reflecting poor profit-making conditions [1] Technical Analysis - The market has shown a significant volume of trading, with a notable pattern of rising and then sharply retreating, suggesting a potential adjustment phase [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has exhibited a top divergence on the 30-minute chart, necessitating close observation of the daily K-line for signs of a small span top divergence, which could indicate a higher probability of market consolidation or pullback [2] - The support level for the Shanghai Composite Index is identified around 3550 points, which corresponds to the small wave bottom of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices on August 4 [3] Sector Performance - The financial sector led the market today, with the insurance sector showing the highest gains, followed by banking and securities [4] - Recent news indicated that China Ping An has made a significant investment in China Pacific Insurance, marking a rare instance of one insurance company acquiring another [4] - The securities and insurance sectors are expected to perform strongly during bull market phases, while in non-mainstream phases, they may either follow the market trend or experience slow upward movements [4] AI Hardware Sector - The AI hardware sector saw adjustments today, particularly in the PCB and computing power export segments, which experienced significant declines [7] - Recent news regarding the installation of tracking devices in chip shipments by the U.S. and rumors related to Nvidia's Rubin have contributed to market volatility [7] - Despite short-term adjustments, the AI hardware sector is viewed positively in the medium term, driven by high growth in certain sub-industries and the ongoing technological revolution in artificial intelligence [8] Robotics and Military Sector - The humanoid robotics sector has shown signs of activity after a period of stagnation since March, although a robust market rally may require more time [9] - The military trade concept sector faced a decline of 3.33%, with other military-related sectors also experiencing drops of over 2% [9] - Historical patterns suggest that military stocks may face profit-taking as the September 3 military parade approaches, warranting caution in this sector [9] News Highlights - Apple is reportedly preparing to launch several robots and redesigned smart home devices, with a desktop robot planned for release in 2027 [10] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has initiated a proposal to maintain fair competition in the energy storage industry, with 152 companies participating [10] Conclusion - The market is currently under observation for potential small span top divergences in the Shanghai Composite Index, which could lead to consolidation or pullback, although the adjustment space is expected to be limited [10] - Focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, smart driving, commercial aerospace, humanoid robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and solid-state batteries is recommended, as these are anticipated to align with emerging industry trends [10]

每经编辑｜赵云 近期港股迎来短期小幅回调，其原因可以归结于之前市场对于国内政策的高度乐观有所退潮，以及海外 流动性出现变化。美债利率和美元指数反弹压制港股相对表现，对流动性敏感的恒生科技指数回调较 深。 在积累了较多涨幅的情况下，预期变动放大了市场波动，但这并未改变港股市场的中期配置逻辑。事实 上，上周市场回调反而吸引了资金进一步流入。南向资金流入规模大幅放大，单周净流入590亿港币， 是4月11日以来单周新高，港股科技ETF（513020）近10个交易日净流入超2亿元，资金逢低布局。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 此外全球流动性倾向于宽松而非紧缩，无论是超预期放缓的美国就业数据还是特朗普对美联储独立性的 干扰，都对美元指数构成了下行压力。除此之外，多数国家宽财政对冲关税压力需求仍强，货币财政双 宽松或继续提振广义流动性。 政策层 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.5%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.4%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index went up by 0.2% [1] - Huatai Securities indicated that global liquidity easing has led to significant capital allocation demands, particularly flowing into China and the offshore market in Hong Kong [1] - After a valuation recovery from the beginning of the year, the valuation changes in the Hong Kong stock market have not deviated from levels supported by global liquidity [1]