Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade maintains a high growth rate despite increasing international risks and challenges, with a total import and export value of 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in the first seven months of the year, which is an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] Supporting Factors for Trade Quality and Quantity Improvement - Policy support has been significant, with multiple rounds of foreign trade stabilization policies implemented since the fourth quarter of last year, focusing on fostering new trade dynamics and enhancing public services for foreign trade enterprises [2] - Diversified cooperation has been expanded, with imports and exports to emerging and other markets growing by 5% in the first seven months, accounting for 65.5% of total trade, with notable increases in trade with ASEAN and Africa [2] - The release of new trade momentum is evident, with exports of mechanical and electrical products growing by 9.3%, making up 60% of total exports, indicating a solid upward trend in foreign trade [2] High-Value Product Export Growth - High-tech and high-value-added products such as smart home devices, electric vehicles, industrial robots, and ships continue to show strong export growth, with 654,000 foreign trade enterprises active in the first seven months, of which nearly 90% are private enterprises [3] Global Economic and Trade Uncertainty - Global trade still faces significant uncertainty, with increased tariff barriers raising global trade costs and impacting supply chain efficiency, leading to downward risks in global trade [4] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has updated its global trade growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, an improvement from previous estimates, but still below pre-tariff adjustment levels, indicating ongoing challenges [4] - The WTO highlights that the full impact of recent tariff measures is gradually becoming apparent, with uncertainty remaining a destructive force in the global trade environment [4]

Core Insights - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecasts for Central Asia and the Caucasus, increasing the expected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 to 5.5% and 5.1% respectively, driven by anticipated oil production growth and stable domestic demand [1] - Conversely, the ADB has downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region for 2025 and 2026 to 4.7% and 4.6% respectively, citing global trade uncertainties, reduced exports, and weak domestic demand as primary factors [1] - The region is also facing additional risks such as localized armed conflicts and supply chain disruptions [1]

Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from June, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [1] - The PMI has remained below 50% for five consecutive months, indicating continued weakness in global manufacturing and a slight reduction in recovery momentum compared to June [1] Regional Manufacturing Performance - In Europe, the manufacturing PMI slightly increased to above 49%, indicating a slow recovery [2] - In the Americas, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48%, remaining in the contraction zone for five months [2] - The ISM report highlighted that the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 48% in July, down 1 percentage point from June, with new orders slightly rising but still low [2] Economic Uncertainties - U.S. tariff policies and weak employment data have increased uncertainties regarding economic recovery [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% due to inflation pressures [3] - Rising input prices are leading U.S. manufacturers to adopt a cautious investment approach, with Citibank predicting further profit margin shrinkage due to new tariffs [3] Asian and African Manufacturing Insights - The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5% in July, slightly down from June, but still indicating expansion [4] - The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 4.7% economic growth rate for 46 developing Asian economies in 2025, despite a slight downward revision [4] - The African manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1%, indicating a sustained recovery, with South Africa and Nigeria showing expansion [5]

Core Insights - Medtronic, a leader in medical technology, has seen its stock decline significantly from its 2021 peak, primarily due to product recalls and market conditions [2][3][5] Financial Performance - In the past year, Medtronic reported nearly $33.2 billion in revenue and $4.3 billion in net income, indicating slight growth and consistent profitability [3] - Operating cash flow has been weak, with only $127 million recorded in the latest quarter, representing less than 0.5% of revenue [3] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - Medtronic's stock has declined approximately 50% from its 2021 peak of around $140 to below $70 in late 2023, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [2][7] - The stock has not yet returned to its pre-Crisis high, with the highest value since then being $94.50 on March 9, 2025, and currently trading at $92.94 [7] Economic and Market Challenges - Current economic challenges, including inflation pressures and uncertainties in global trade and medical reimbursement trends, may strain healthcare profit margins [5] - Historical data shows that during economic downturns, Medtronic's stock has lost more value compared to the S&P 500, raising concerns about its resilience in adverse market conditions [6][9] Growth Concerns - Medtronic's trailing P/E ratio is approximately 27, despite slowing revenue growth, which has decreased from over 5% to under 3% in the most recent quarter [8]

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with over 90% probability for a rate cut in September according to CME FedWatch [2] - U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a weakening labor market, reinforcing market bets on a new round of rate cuts [2] - Global trade uncertainties, exacerbated by recent tariff increases signed by President Trump, continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold may have reached a short-term peak, with bearish signals emerging [3] - A downward channel has formed in the short term, indicating potential further declines in gold prices [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3385-3390, while support levels are at 3335-3340 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. Meanwhile, the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] - For trading strategies, the 2509 contract is neutral in the unilateral trading; pay attention to the widening of the basis in arbitrage; and in hedging, short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts as there is medium - term adjustment pressure [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI monthly环比 is - 0.10% and同比 is 0.10%; China's PPI monthly环比 is - 0.40% and同比 is - 3.60% [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.95%; M2同比 is 8.30%, with a环比 increase of 0.40% and a环比 change rate of + 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a环比 increase of 0.20% and a环比 change rate of + 0.40% [8] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.51, with a环比 increase of 0.28 and a环比 change rate of + 0.29%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1462, with a环比 decrease of 0.015 and a环比 change rate of - 0.21%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with a环比 increase of 0.08 and a环比 change rate of + 5.60%; DR007 is 1.58, with a环比 increase of 0.09 and a环比 change rate of + 6.29%; R007 is 1.68, with a环比 increase of 0.04 and a环比 change rate of + 2.35%; The 3 - month yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a环比 increase of 0.04 and a环比 change rate of + 2.45%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a环比 increase of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 2.45% [8] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds of each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds of each term in the recent day, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position - holding ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the trading - to - position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][14][17][20][22][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Relevant figures include the interest - rate corridor, central bank's open - market operations, bond - lending turnover and the total position - holding volume of treasury bond futures, Shibor interest - rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][29][34][36] 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the inter - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond yield and futures price (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [40][42][43][46] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [45][48][55] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [54][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [62][65] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [69][72][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The 2509 contract of Treasury bond futures is rated neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.86, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 and a decline rate of - 0.61%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1795, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.004 and a decline rate of - 0.05%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.14%; DR007 is 1.49, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.10%; R007 is 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22% [9] 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.76 yuan, and 119.97 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.05%, - 0.05%, and - 0.46% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.018 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, and - 0.044 yuan respectively [2] 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.366%, 1.477%, 1.571%, and 1.534% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread - related charts, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the relationships between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][43][44] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate [46][49] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TF main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TF main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [55][58] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the T main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the T main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [63][66] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TL main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TL main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [71][74][76]

Global Asset Price Review - The report highlights that global trade uncertainty has increased due to President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on 14 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70% expected to take effect on August 1, 2025. This has led to a rise in commodity assets [1][8] - In terms of market performance, the report notes that the 10Y US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.43%, while the dollar index slightly rebounded to 97.9, remaining below 100. Asian stock markets showed positive performance, with the European Stoxx 600 up by 1.15%, followed by the Hang Seng Index at 0.93% and the CSI 300 at 0.82% [1][8] - Commodity prices also saw increases, with crude oil rising by 3.09% and gold by 0.71% [1][8] Global Fund Flows - The report indicates a significant inflow of funds into developed markets, particularly in the US and Europe. US fixed income funds saw an inflow of $9.51 billion, while US equity funds attracted $4.91 billion. In contrast, Chinese equity funds experienced a slight outflow [1][15] - Sector-wise, US funds saw inflows into financials, utilities, and technology, while outflows were noted in consumer, industrials, and healthcare sectors. In China, inflows were observed in technology, finance, and materials, with outflows in consumer, communication, and healthcare sectors [1][15] Global Asset Valuation - The report states that the equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets. The CSI 300 ERP decreased by 1 percentage point to 68%, while the Shanghai Composite Index ERP fell by 2 percentage points to 60% [1][8] - The ERP for major US indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq is reported at 2%, 2%, and 3% respectively, indicating lower risk-adjusted returns compared to Chinese markets [1][8] Global Economic Data - The report notes that the global trade situation has become tense again due to Trump's tariff announcements, with tariffs on imports from the notified countries expected to range from 25% to 40%. Additionally, a 50% tariff on copper imports to the US was mentioned, although the effective date was not specified [1][8] - Key economic indicators to watch include China's June export figures, Q2 GDP growth, and the US June CPI [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, emphasizes the need to restore the damping function of the Japanese government bond market amid high global trade uncertainties and a transformative global economy [1] Group 1 - The current global economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainties in trade [1] - There is a recognition of a "systemic transformation" occurring in the global economy [1] - The urgency to restore the functionality of the Japanese government bond market is highlighted as a critical measure [1]