Workflow
关税政策
icon
Search documents
鲍威尔讲话暗示降息 专家称9月可能性很大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 05:54
当地时间22日,美联储主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话,暗示美联储可能在 未来数月降息。 △美国有线电视新闻网报道截图 鲍威尔当天表示,美国经济在高关税与收紧移民政策背景下仍展现韧性,但劳动力市场与经济增长已出现 显著放缓。他表示,尽管通胀仍受关注,但由于就业和通胀的风险平衡点正在发生变化,就业市场风险上 升可能使美联储在9月降息。他强调,在政策维持紧缩的背景下,经济前景及风险变化或需调整政策立 场。 在通胀方面,鲍威尔指出关税已推高部分商品价格,7月核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数同比上涨 2.9%。他强调,关税效应可能是一次性冲击,但若通胀预期被推升,风险不可忽视。 在政策立场上,鲍威尔称,美联储利率水平已较去年更接近"中性",未来将谨慎评估风险,确保不会让一 次性物价上涨演变成长期通胀问题。他重申,美联储将始终在实现最大就业和物价稳定的双重使命间保持 平衡。 美联储22日还发布了修订后的《长期目标与货币政策战略声明》。修订要点包括取消"平均通胀目标制", 回归灵活通胀目标等。 自去年12月以来,美联储一直将政策利率维持在4.25%至4.50%的区间内。 美联储担心政府的关税政策可 ...
受美关税政策影响,欧洲多个邮政公司暂停向美国发送包裹
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-08-22 17:09
美国总统特朗普7月30日宣布,从8月29日起暂停对价值800美元及以下的进口包裹给予免税待遇。据路 透社8月20日报道,受此关税政策影响,目前瑞典、挪威等国的邮政公司已经宣布暂停向美国发送包 裹。 比利时邮政集团称,暂停措施目前涉及包含货物的包裹,暂不影响信件。 本文来源:央视新闻,原文标题:《受美关税政策影响,欧洲多个邮政公司暂停向美国发送包裹》 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 挪威邮政集团也表示,美国海关部门尚未澄清最新政策的细节,也未给出系统解决方案,欧洲多个邮政 公司正要求美方解释政策细节。 瑞典北欧邮政公司发表声明称,由于适应美国最新关税政策的时间很短,公司将暂时停止向美国发送包 裹。 ...
受美关税政策影响 欧洲多个邮政公司暂停向美国发送包裹
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-08-22 16:12
美国总统特朗普7月30日宣布,从8月29日起暂停对价值800美元及以下的进口包裹给予免税待遇。据路 透社8月20日报道,受此关税政策影响,目前瑞典、挪威等国的邮政公司已经宣布暂停向美国发送包 裹。 比利时邮政集团称,暂停措施目前涉及包含货物的包裹,暂不影响信件。 (文章来源:央视新闻) 挪威邮政集团也表示,美国海关部门尚未澄清最新政策的细节,也未给出系统解决方案,欧洲多个邮政 公司正要求美方解释政策细节。 瑞典北欧邮政公司发表声明称,由于适应美国最新关税政策的时间很短,公司将暂时停止向美国发送包 裹。 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250822
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 00:48
[Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-68756925 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-68758786 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-68751490 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-58731316 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号:F031445 ...
通胀与关税下的赢家:消费者“精打细算” 折扣零售商罗斯百货(ROST.US)业绩、指引双双超预期
智通财经网· 2025-08-21 23:35
智通财经APP获悉,由于关税政策导致假日季零售价格上涨,消费者对折扣服装和配饰的需求持续增 长,折扣零售商罗斯百货(ROST.US)周四公布的季度利润超出市场预期,同时发布了强劲的年度预测, 这推动了该股股价盘后的大幅上涨。 财报显示,罗斯百货第二季度同店销售额增长2%,且逐月改善。7月因消费者寻求折扣返校服饰和配 饰,需求尤为强劲。在截至8月2日的三个月中,销售额为55.3亿美元,同比增长2%,但略低于市场预 期的55.7亿美元,调整后每股盈利达到1.56美元,超出市场预期2美分。 展望未来,罗斯百货重新发布全年每股收益预期,预计范围为6.08至6.21美元,而市场预期为6.10美 元,该预期已包含每股22至25美分的关税影响;预计第三季度每股收益为1.31至1.37美元,低于市场预期 的1.47美元,但针对关键假日季的第四季度每股收益目标为1.74至1.81美元,高于市场预期的1.69美元。 据悉,该公司曾在5月因关税不确定性撤回全年预测,并透露其超半数商品采购自中国。 随着特朗普实施的关税政策迫使企业提高进口商品售价,折扣零售商吸引了更多注重预算的消费者。从 零售店到餐厅甚至家装卖场,各类主打性价比的连 ...
特朗普300%关税重击台湾半导体,全球芯片股应声暴跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 18:25
美国这记重拳为啥要砸向台湾?台湾的"护国神山"还能撑多久? 300%关税砸下来,台湾"护国神山"怎么成了活火山 说起来,台湾半导体这座"护国神山",最近真像座活火山。 表面看着风平浪静,底下早就岩浆翻滚,就等着哪天彻底爆发。特朗普这300%关税一出,就像往火山 口丢了颗炸弹。 前言 特朗普又挥起了关税大棒,这次瞄准的是台湾半导体——300%的关税!这个数字一出来,全球芯片股 瞬间跳水,台积电们的心都悬到了嗓子眼。 就在这个当口,台湾瑞升金属工业宣布停业了。这家1974年就开始做半导体材料的老字号,51年的家业 说没就没了。更让人心寒的是,这还只是个开始。 同样做生意,人家的成本是100块,你的成本是132块,客户会选谁? 结果显而易见——订单像雪崩一样消失。瑞升金属早在5月就发出了全球经贸风险预警,可惜预警归预 警,钱包空了就是空了。 三个月后,这家老字号企业不得不宣布财务困难,正式停业。 瑞升金属工业的倒闭,就像多米诺骨牌的第一张。这家从1974年就开始干半导体材料的老企业,见证了 台湾电子工业从无到有的全过程。 可就是这样一家有着51年历史的企业,说倒就倒了。 原因很简单——钱包受不了了。 国民党主席朱立 ...
美联储鹰派决议背后:担忧通胀甚于就业,政治压力加剧困境
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its officials, particularly concerning inflation risks over employment concerns [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][4]. - The July non-farm employment data was notably weaker than expected, and previous months' data were revised downwards, which undermined the Fed's stance on not lowering interest rates [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The July FOMC meeting minutes indicated that most officials preferred to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [1][5]. - The Fed's focus remains on controlling inflation, with officials expressing concerns that tariff policies could lead to prolonged inflationary pressures [2][6]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased, with approximately 82% probability according to CME FedWatch Tool, despite a slight decline from previous levels [4][6]. - The internal division within the Fed between hawkish and dovish views is evident, with a significant number of officials remaining cautious about inflation risks [5][6]. Political Pressure - The White House, particularly President Trump, has been exerting pressure on the Fed, calling for the resignation of certain officials and pushing for a more accommodative monetary policy [1][7]. - Despite political pressures, the Fed's decision-making is expected to remain primarily data-driven, with its independence likely to endure in the short term [7].
国投期货农产品日报-20250821
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 11:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish/Short-term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs (★☆☆), indicating a bias towards a rising or falling trend with drivers for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market [1]. - **Balanced/Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil (☆☆☆), suggesting short - term supply - demand balance and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [1]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather, policies, and international trade situations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Product Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures is weak due to increased supply from auctions and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is rising. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - In the next two weeks, low temperature and less rain in the US soybean - producing areas pose challenges to new - season crops. The global oil market's strength may boost soybean crushing. In China, the supply in Q4 and Q1 next year is affected by US tariff policies, with a possible supply gap in Q1 next year. The medium - long - term outlook for soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are in a correction. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in June. The market is concerned about the US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions, which has pressured US soybean oil prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The supply side of the overseas rapeseed market is stabilizing, and the focus is shifting to the demand side. China's imports of Australian rapeseed are a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed is likely to be tight in Q4, and the futures price is expected to rise [5]. Corn - Cofco will continue to auction imported corn. The previous auctions had a low transaction rate. The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively sufficient. New - season Xinjiang corn is affecting market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures are in a weak oscillation. The supply in the second half of the year is high, and the price is expected to decline. Policy may support the price at a certain level. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price is high [7]. Eggs - Egg futures have reached a new low. The spot price is weak, and the futures price is still at a premium. The far - month contracts for the first half of next year are strong. Attention should be paid to the spot price and capacity reduction [8].
美联储7月会议纪要:多数人认为通胀比就业风险高,担心美债市场脆弱,关注稳定币影响
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-21 09:28
美东时间8月20日周三公布的 会议纪要显示,上月末的最近一次美联储货币政策会议上,联储决策者对通胀、就业、特朗普政府的关税政策影响均未有一致看 法,主流观点是,相比就业,通胀的风险更让人担心。 从这个角度看,本次纪要 偏鹰派 。 截至7月30日的会上,美联储货币政策委员会FOMC再次决定按兵不动,但会后决议显示, 两名理事——被传为下任美联储主席热门人选的沃勒和"特朗普提 名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼因主张立即降息投了反对票,这是三十多年首次出现如此多的联储理事对利率决议持异议。 会议纪要也显示,7月会上,几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息,只有两人反对。纪要体现了,对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响,联储官员均存在分 歧,不过多数还是认为,通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为,关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 经济方面,一些人预计美国经济活动将保持稳健,还有些人预计下半年将延续上半年的低增长。 此外,美联储官员普遍认为需要监控一些金融市场存在的脆弱性,一些人表达了对美国国债市场脆弱性的担忧,还有人指出银行和外汇掉期方面的担忧。多人 讨论了最近出台稳定币法案后此类数字资产的影响,与会者认为,应高度关注 ...
美媒:涨价带来冲击 关税政策正在伤害美国工薪阶层
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-21 07:05
Group 1 - The article highlights that the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have increased costs for American consumers, particularly affecting the working class [1][2] - It notes that since March, industries heavily impacted by rising tariff-related costs have seen significant declines in employment rates [1] - The article emphasizes that the costs associated with tariffs are being passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices for imported goods and domestic manufacturing components [1][2] Group 2 - The automotive industry is specifically mentioned, with tariffs on auto parts increasing from 2.5% to 25%, steel tariffs rising from zero to 50%, and finished vehicle tariffs also increasing from 2.5% to 25%, all contributing to rising costs [1] - The article argues that the burden of these tariff-related price increases will force consumers to adjust their spending, potentially reducing their quality of life [2][4] - It criticizes the Trump administration for ignoring the negative impact of tariffs on the working class, with past statements indicating a lack of concern for rising consumer prices [3]