Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's shift from a hawkish stance in July to a dovish outlook at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates a changing risk balance, with employment risks now outweighing inflation risks[2] - If August's inflation and employment data align with Powell's expectations, a 25 basis point rate cut in September is deemed reasonable[2] - The Fed's previous tariff-induced inflation shocks are expected to persist longer than anticipated, suggesting a potential for preemptive rate cuts[2] Economic Indicators - U.S. tariff revenues are projected to be around $300 billion per year over the next two years, potentially alleviating fiscal deficit pressure by approximately 1 percentage point[3] - Employment risks are rising due to a simultaneous decline in labor supply and demand, which could lead to increased layoffs and higher unemployment rates[7] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a rate cut in September increased from 73.3% to 89.2%[11] - Major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones rising by 1.6%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively[7] Future Outlook - The adjustment in monetary policy framework suggests a higher tolerance for inflation compared to employment risks, indicating a greater likelihood of downward pressure on policy rates in the medium term[7] - The potential for a market correction exists post-rate cut, as recent positive earnings may have already priced in favorable conditions[8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the effective tariff rate in the U.S. has exceeded 18% and is expected to stabilize around 15% by mid-2026, which will ultimately impact GDP growth and consumer prices [1][9] - Evidence is accumulating that companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers, although the effects on official inflation data have not yet been significant [1][2] - The report highlights that the price of imported goods, such as electric tools, is already increasing, with specific examples like Festool raising prices by 6% due to tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - The process of passing on costs to consumers takes time, especially for low-frequency purchase items like electric tools compared to high-frequency items like bananas [6] - Since the beginning of the year, border tariffs have been steadily rising as more imported goods are subjected to tariffs, leading to higher effective tariff rates [2][6] - The U.S. dollar has depreciated significantly against other currencies, which adds pressure on exporters and complicates the cost absorption for importers [6][7] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury's assertion that consumers will not bear the cost of tariffs is deemed implausible unless the dollar strengthens [9] - The expected effective tariff rates correspond to a range of 30%-40% on Chinese goods and 10%-15% on goods from other countries, indicating a significant ongoing impact on trade [9] - The anticipated long-term effects include a projected 1% decrease in GDP growth and a 1% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) compared to a no-tariff scenario [1][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.25. The counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and the improvement of onshore assets has enhanced the popularity of the yuan. However, attention should be paid to the volatility risks caused by the Fed's statements during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [46][49]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the Chinese yuan options shows an appreciation trend of the yuan, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan options has continued to decline, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility [4]. - In July 2025, the non - bank sector's foreign - related income was 6904 billion US dollars, and external payments were 6981 billion US dollars, with the payment and receipt scale close to balance. Both payments and receipts were at a high level, indicating that cross - border trade, investment, and service activities remained strong. Seasonal factors led to slightly higher payments than income, but the overall operation was still stable [44]. 2. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and there has been a fluctuation in the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [10]. 3. Macroeconomic Situation 3.1 US Economy - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of 515.4 billion on August 3rd, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 57.2 billion US dollars. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine whether the Fed would lower the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [18]. - The ratio of hawks to doves among Fed voting members is 6:5. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating a wait - and - see approach and others supporting interest rate cuts [21]. - The US economic outlook has been revised upward. In July, the decline in fiscal spending was accompanied by a recovery in the service sector's prosperity, which drove the manufacturing industry. However, fiscal spending remained weak. The July non - farm payrolls were significantly revised downward, and the market is waiting for July CPI data [22]. - In July, the US CPI remained flat compared to the previous value, with the core CPI rebounding and the PPI rising more than expected. The rebound in the core CPI was mainly due to the rebound in core services, especially the volatile airline ticket sub - item. The PPI increase was mainly driven by the 2% month - on - month jump in trade services [23]. - US retail sales showed resilience in year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates. Automobile - related, food service and catering, and non - store snacks were the main contributors, and general merchandise stores also remained resilient [26]. 3.2 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In July, exports and consumption showed resilience, but inflation has not recovered, and there is pressure on fixed - asset investment. The fundamentals and market sentiment are increasingly divided [28][29]. - In July 2025, the banking system completed approximately 233.6 billion US dollars in foreign exchange settlement business and 210.8 billion US dollars in foreign exchange sales business, achieving a net surplus of 22.8 billion US dollars. The market showed stable yet dynamic performance, with the foreign exchange market generally in a "stable and positive" state [37]. 4. Domestic Policy - At the 9th Plenary Session of the State Council on August 18th, it was pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, and promote the construction of a unified national market [45].

Core Points - The article discusses the significant increase in back-to-school expenses for American families due to rising prices of essential items and the impact of tariffs on imported goods [1][4][5] Group 1: Price Increases - The average price of typical back-to-school supplies has risen by 7.3%, nearly three times the overall inflation rate over the past year [4] - Specific items have seen substantial price increases, such as index cards (42.6%), notebooks (17.1%), binders (12.8%), and folders (12.7%) [4] - The cost of preparing lunches for children is expected to increase by $163 compared to the previous school year, with food prices rising significantly since Trump's administration [4] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - New tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, have led to increased prices for school supplies, with a 30% tariff on ordinary goods entering the U.S. [3][4] - The price of laptops and tablets has nearly doubled, forcing some school districts to abandon a quarter of their planned updates due to costs rising from $650 to $1200 [5] - Clothing and footwear prices are also affected, with many items facing tariffs of 20% or more, leading to a 1.4% increase in shoe prices and a 0.1% increase in clothing prices in July [5] Group 3: Educational Costs - The "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump has reduced federal aid for students, including cuts to meal subsidies and federal loans for college students, which may lead to increased educational costs [5][6] - A survey indicated that 61% of college students feel the impact of the new loan policies, with over a third considering canceling their plans for further education [6][7] - The hostile policies towards international students have resulted in a 13% drop in enrollment, further exacerbating the financial pressure on domestic students [7]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to be a critical policy statement, influencing global asset pricing [1][2][3] - Current market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a rate cut in September, but the unexpected 0.9% month-on-month increase in July PPI has raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Powell faces the challenge of balancing persistent inflation against economic growth pressures, with the recent PPI increase driven by rising energy prices and supply chain costs [1][2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are looking for clear signals from Powell regarding the initiation of a rate cut cycle, while also being cautious about inflation uncertainties [2][3] - If Powell emphasizes data dependency and shows caution regarding PPI fluctuations, it may suggest a modest rate cut of only 25 basis points [2][3] - Conversely, if he downplays short-term inflation volatility and focuses on cooling labor markets and slowing economic momentum, a more aggressive easing signal could emerge [2][3] Group 3 - The implications of Powell's speech are significant for emerging markets, as it will directly impact capital flows, currency stability, and economic growth prospects [3][4] - A clear signal of a rate cut could lead to three benefits for emerging markets: narrowing interest rate differentials, a weaker dollar, and reduced financing costs for dollar-denominated debt [3][4] - However, if Powell conveys a hawkish stance on inflation, emerging markets may face challenges such as capital outflows, currency depreciation, and worsening growth outlooks [4] Group 4 - Investors should focus not only on the likelihood of a rate cut but also on Powell's assessment of inflation resilience and growth risks, as well as the Fed's independence amid political pressures [5] - Understanding the underlying logic of the Fed's policy decisions is crucial for navigating asset pricing in an uncertain environment [5]

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, spot gold fell by 1.8%, marking the largest weekly decline since the end of June, closing at $3,335.90 [1] - Today, during European trading hours, gold surged over $20, currently hovering around $3,348 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are trading within a sideways channel, with recent RSI moving towards oversold conditions, suggesting potential further declines towards $3,272 or even $3,209 in the medium to long term [16] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Last week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.74%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.81%, with both the Dow and S&P 500 reaching intraday all-time highs [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is expected to address future monetary policy and the Fed's independence [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September exceeds 92%, with at least one more cut anticipated within the year [6] - Despite recent highs in U.S. stock indices, risks are accumulating, with the S&P 500's year-to-date performance showing signs of weakening and historical cumulative gains reaching high percentiles [6] Group 3: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. trade delegation unexpectedly canceled its visit to India, casting a shadow over tariff negotiations [4] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the overall tariff rate to 50% [4] - Concerns are growing regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a recent U.S. inflation indicator showing the fastest increase in three years [4] Group 4: International Relations - Significant progress has been reported in U.S.-Russia discussions regarding Ukraine, with potential security guarantees being offered [8] - The upcoming meeting involving leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Finland, NATO, and the EU indicates a strong European interest in the negotiations [8][12] - The situation is described as a "Himalayan banquet," with differing interests between the U.S. and European leaders regarding the terms of peace [12] Group 5: Middle East Tensions - The Houthi forces launched a hypersonic missile at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport in response to ongoing military actions in Gaza and Yemen [13] - Israeli military reported intercepting a missile from Yemen, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region [13]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil industry is neutral according to the core view [4]. Group 2: Core View - Macroeconomically, after the release of US CPI and PPI data in July, the market restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report maintains that the inflation caused by tariffs is a "one - time shock", and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, with stronger support at the lower boundary in Q3 and Q4. The volatility of crude oil remains low due to the low - volatility trends of US stocks, US bonds and other dollar - denominated assets [4]. - The Asian region's capacity to absorb increased Middle - Eastern oil production has slowed. The structure and monthly spreads are pricing in future supply surpluses. The impact of the Russia - US talks on Russian oil exports is mainly emotional, and future focus will return to Iran. The downstream sector maintains high operation rates, but with diesel weakening and refinery seasonal maintenance approaching, the spot discount is likely to narrow. The diesel fundamentals are not likely to see further significant contradictions, and future fundamental contradictions will return to the supply side [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Industry Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC increased production in September. The Russia - US talks have limited impact on Russian oil exports, with more of an emotional influence [5]. - **SPR**: The US SPR is replenishing at a rate of 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly through slow and low - cost stockpiling [5]. - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: The market is pricing in a negative outcome for the Russia - US meeting in Alaska. The meeting's possible results include a peace agreement (low probability), negotiation breakdown with intensified sanctions (supply disruption risk is limited), and a limited cease - fire or no agreement (highest probability, with a negative impact on structure and price) [5][15]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week's production was 1.333 million barrels per day, with the number of rigs remaining at 410. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The release of US CPI and PPI data in July restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report believes that the impact of tariffs on prices is limited, and the direction of the impact is certain despite possible rhythm deviations [4][10]. - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectations**: The market's expectation for interest - rate cuts within the year has increased. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expectations for two interest - rate cuts within the year (in September and October, 25 basis points each). The volatility of risk assets will remain low as market participants adapt to Trump's "TACO" mode [13]. 3. Supply - Demand Factors - **Supply**: The balance sheet shows the production and demand forecasts from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, with adjustments made to some data. Overall, there are periods of supply surplus and deficit [6]. - **Demand**: Diesel cracking spreads have weakened, and the spot discount shows a marginal weakening trend. China's capacity to absorb increased oil production has slowed, and as refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the fundamental pressure on the market is emerging [5][16]. 4. Market Sentiment and Positioning - **WTI Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, WTI long positions decreased by 13,160 contracts, short positions increased by 2,887 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 16,050 contracts [46]. - **Brent Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, Brent long positions decreased by 23,680 contracts, short positions decreased by 4,125 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 19,560 contracts [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [3][4][13]. - China's "dual discount interest" policy has been implemented to boost domestic demand, and the probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. - China's economic data in July was affected by multiple factors, but it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [8][10][12]. - In the short - term, geopolitical risk premiums have temporarily ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US CPI in July was slightly lower than expected, but core CPI reached a new high for the second time this year. PPI exceeded expectations, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, the highest since February [3]. - The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is gradually emerging, and the upward pressure on commodity inflation will continue to accumulate. The price of the service industry in July significantly contributed to inflation, and the pressure on CPI to rise in the coming months is increasing [3][4]. - Although inflation data shows signs of an uptick, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September. The market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude, and inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [4]. 1.2 Implementation of the "Dual Discount Interest" Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - The "dual discount interest" policy of personal consumer loan discount interest and service industry business entity loan discount interest has been launched, which forms a synergy to stimulate consumption with other policies. It helps improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [5]. - In the future, the policy may continue to explore the synergy between fiscal funds and financial resources, and the weight of structural tools and special fiscal policies may increase. The probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. 1.3 China's Economic Situation in July - China's economic data in July showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with a more obvious slowdown in domestic demand. Consumption recovery momentum weakened marginally, investment remained weak, and financial data also showed slow demand - side repair [8][10][11]. - Although China's economy is affected by multiple temporary factors in the short - term, it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [12]. 1.4 Next Week's Key Points - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [13]. - The short - term geopolitical risk premium from the US - Russia summit has ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain liquidity, promote reasonable price increases, and release consumption potential. This week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [17]. - The "dual discount interest" policy has been introduced, with a 1 - percentage - point annual discount interest rate. The personal consumer loan discount interest policy has a cumulative discount interest cap of 3000 yuan per borrower, and the service industry business entity loan discount interest policy has a maximum loan scale of 1 million yuan per household [17]. - China's deflation pressure eased slightly in July. CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI was negative for 34 consecutive months, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest in 17 months [17]. - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The "national subsidy" funds of 138 billion yuan were issued, and the automobile sales volume increased by 14.7% year - on - year [17][18]. - From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [18]. - China and the US suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 11.8% year - on - year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the PPI in July increased significantly, with a 3.3% year - on - year increase. CPI was flat compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expected, while core CPI reached a five - month high, higher than expected [19]. - After the release of the US CPI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.1%. Trump nominated E·J·Anthony as the next director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expanded the list of candidates for the Fed chairman [19]. - The EU plans to formulate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese central bank is under pressure to abandon an inflation indicator to pave the way for an interest rate hike [19]. - Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade team will meet with China in the next two or three months. The US - Russia summit has not reached an agreement but is close [20]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - On August 18, the US will release the NAHB housing market index for August. - On August 20, China will release the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August, and the eurozone will release the CPI and core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month for July, as well as the preliminary PMI values for August. - On August 21, the US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, the Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values for August, and the year - on - year total of existing home sales in July. - From August 22 to 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held (to be determined). [21]

分析人士指出，关税落地存在时滞、企业前期囤库、需求疲软等因素导致关税对通胀传导暂时不显著。但他们表示，关 税影响"只会迟到不会缺席"，此轮关税战中，美国通胀很可能呈现慢热的趋势。 根据美国劳工统计局近日发布的数据，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与6月持平，但低于市场预期的 2.8%；剔除食品和能源价格后，核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，为5个月来最快增速，高于预期的3.0%及6月的2.9%。7月核心 CPI环比从6月的0.3%回落至0.2%，仅温和上升。 分析人士指出，核心CPI上涨的主要推手是房租、医疗服务和航空票价，分别上涨0.2%、0.7%和4.0%；食品价格持平； 能源和汽油价格则分别下跌1.1%和2.2%。而服装、娱乐商品、家具等对进口依赖度较高的分项价格虽环比略有上行， 但增速回落，环比增速分别下行0.36、0.35、0.28个基点，显示关税对通胀的传导幅度并没有意想中的大。 国盛宏观首席经济学家熊园对智通财经表示，美国通胀更偏"慢热"而非"不热"，关税影响"只会迟到不会缺席"，但大概 率是逐步抬升，而非突然大幅飙升。 数据来源：wind， 制图：智通财经 自今年4月美国总统唐纳德·特 ...

尽管近期数据显示美国经济增长引擎正显露疲态，但美银一份关键报告却描绘了截然不同的景象。 美国银行最新信用卡数据显示，7月消费者支出出现意外反弹，家庭信用卡和借记卡总支出同比增长 1.8%，创今年新高。其中，7月经季节性调整的家庭支出环比增长0.6%，较6月的0.2%同比增幅大幅提 升。 季节性促销与关税担忧或为主要推手 尽管7月份的数据令人振奋，但其背后可能存在临时性因素，这让分析师对消费势头的可持续性持谨慎 态度。 首先，在线零售商的促销活动似乎是主要驱动力。 这一增长具有广泛性，零售和此前连续三个月下滑的服务业支出均有贡献。具体来看，服务业支出环比 增长0.9%，为2024年4月以来的最大增幅，扭转了近期的疲软态势。 此外，此前放缓的非必需消费领域也在7月有所改善。与6月相比，7月航空公司和住宿的支出均出现回 升，而餐饮和酒吧的支出则保持稳定。同时，机场客流量在经历了5月和6月的低迷后，自7月初以来已 开始超越2024年同期水平。 基于这些数据，美银预测，周五即将公布的7月零售销售（除汽车外）数据将环比增长0.3%，而更能反 映核心消费需求的"控制组"销售（除汽车、汽油、建筑材料和餐饮服务）数据将录得0. ...