Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to be a critical policy statement, influencing global asset pricing [1][2][3] - Current market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a rate cut in September, but the unexpected 0.9% month-on-month increase in July PPI has raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Powell faces the challenge of balancing persistent inflation against economic growth pressures, with the recent PPI increase driven by rising energy prices and supply chain costs [1][2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are looking for clear signals from Powell regarding the initiation of a rate cut cycle, while also being cautious about inflation uncertainties [2][3] - If Powell emphasizes data dependency and shows caution regarding PPI fluctuations, it may suggest a modest rate cut of only 25 basis points [2][3] - Conversely, if he downplays short-term inflation volatility and focuses on cooling labor markets and slowing economic momentum, a more aggressive easing signal could emerge [2][3] Group 3 - The implications of Powell's speech are significant for emerging markets, as it will directly impact capital flows, currency stability, and economic growth prospects [3][4] - A clear signal of a rate cut could lead to three benefits for emerging markets: narrowing interest rate differentials, a weaker dollar, and reduced financing costs for dollar-denominated debt [3][4] - However, if Powell conveys a hawkish stance on inflation, emerging markets may face challenges such as capital outflows, currency depreciation, and worsening growth outlooks [4] Group 4 - Investors should focus not only on the likelihood of a rate cut but also on Powell's assessment of inflation resilience and growth risks, as well as the Fed's independence amid political pressures [5] - Understanding the underlying logic of the Fed's policy decisions is crucial for navigating asset pricing in an uncertain environment [5]

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, spot gold fell by 1.8%, marking the largest weekly decline since the end of June, closing at $3,335.90 [1] - Today, during European trading hours, gold surged over $20, currently hovering around $3,348 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are trading within a sideways channel, with recent RSI moving towards oversold conditions, suggesting potential further declines towards $3,272 or even $3,209 in the medium to long term [16] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Last week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.74%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.81%, with both the Dow and S&P 500 reaching intraday all-time highs [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is expected to address future monetary policy and the Fed's independence [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September exceeds 92%, with at least one more cut anticipated within the year [6] - Despite recent highs in U.S. stock indices, risks are accumulating, with the S&P 500's year-to-date performance showing signs of weakening and historical cumulative gains reaching high percentiles [6] Group 3: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. trade delegation unexpectedly canceled its visit to India, casting a shadow over tariff negotiations [4] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the overall tariff rate to 50% [4] - Concerns are growing regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a recent U.S. inflation indicator showing the fastest increase in three years [4] Group 4: International Relations - Significant progress has been reported in U.S.-Russia discussions regarding Ukraine, with potential security guarantees being offered [8] - The upcoming meeting involving leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Finland, NATO, and the EU indicates a strong European interest in the negotiations [8][12] - The situation is described as a "Himalayan banquet," with differing interests between the U.S. and European leaders regarding the terms of peace [12] Group 5: Middle East Tensions - The Houthi forces launched a hypersonic missile at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport in response to ongoing military actions in Gaza and Yemen [13] - Israeli military reported intercepting a missile from Yemen, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region [13]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil industry is neutral according to the core view [4]. Group 2: Core View - Macroeconomically, after the release of US CPI and PPI data in July, the market restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report maintains that the inflation caused by tariffs is a "one - time shock", and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, with stronger support at the lower boundary in Q3 and Q4. The volatility of crude oil remains low due to the low - volatility trends of US stocks, US bonds and other dollar - denominated assets [4]. - The Asian region's capacity to absorb increased Middle - Eastern oil production has slowed. The structure and monthly spreads are pricing in future supply surpluses. The impact of the Russia - US talks on Russian oil exports is mainly emotional, and future focus will return to Iran. The downstream sector maintains high operation rates, but with diesel weakening and refinery seasonal maintenance approaching, the spot discount is likely to narrow. The diesel fundamentals are not likely to see further significant contradictions, and future fundamental contradictions will return to the supply side [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Industry Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC increased production in September. The Russia - US talks have limited impact on Russian oil exports, with more of an emotional influence [5]. - **SPR**: The US SPR is replenishing at a rate of 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly through slow and low - cost stockpiling [5]. - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: The market is pricing in a negative outcome for the Russia - US meeting in Alaska. The meeting's possible results include a peace agreement (low probability), negotiation breakdown with intensified sanctions (supply disruption risk is limited), and a limited cease - fire or no agreement (highest probability, with a negative impact on structure and price) [5][15]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week's production was 1.333 million barrels per day, with the number of rigs remaining at 410. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The release of US CPI and PPI data in July restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report believes that the impact of tariffs on prices is limited, and the direction of the impact is certain despite possible rhythm deviations [4][10]. - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectations**: The market's expectation for interest - rate cuts within the year has increased. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expectations for two interest - rate cuts within the year (in September and October, 25 basis points each). The volatility of risk assets will remain low as market participants adapt to Trump's "TACO" mode [13]. 3. Supply - Demand Factors - **Supply**: The balance sheet shows the production and demand forecasts from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, with adjustments made to some data. Overall, there are periods of supply surplus and deficit [6]. - **Demand**: Diesel cracking spreads have weakened, and the spot discount shows a marginal weakening trend. China's capacity to absorb increased oil production has slowed, and as refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the fundamental pressure on the market is emerging [5][16]. 4. Market Sentiment and Positioning - **WTI Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, WTI long positions decreased by 13,160 contracts, short positions increased by 2,887 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 16,050 contracts [46]. - **Brent Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, Brent long positions decreased by 23,680 contracts, short positions decreased by 4,125 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 19,560 contracts [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [3][4][13]. - China's "dual discount interest" policy has been implemented to boost domestic demand, and the probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. - China's economic data in July was affected by multiple factors, but it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [8][10][12]. - In the short - term, geopolitical risk premiums have temporarily ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US CPI in July was slightly lower than expected, but core CPI reached a new high for the second time this year. PPI exceeded expectations, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, the highest since February [3]. - The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is gradually emerging, and the upward pressure on commodity inflation will continue to accumulate. The price of the service industry in July significantly contributed to inflation, and the pressure on CPI to rise in the coming months is increasing [3][4]. - Although inflation data shows signs of an uptick, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September. The market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude, and inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [4]. 1.2 Implementation of the "Dual Discount Interest" Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - The "dual discount interest" policy of personal consumer loan discount interest and service industry business entity loan discount interest has been launched, which forms a synergy to stimulate consumption with other policies. It helps improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [5]. - In the future, the policy may continue to explore the synergy between fiscal funds and financial resources, and the weight of structural tools and special fiscal policies may increase. The probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. 1.3 China's Economic Situation in July - China's economic data in July showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with a more obvious slowdown in domestic demand. Consumption recovery momentum weakened marginally, investment remained weak, and financial data also showed slow demand - side repair [8][10][11]. - Although China's economy is affected by multiple temporary factors in the short - term, it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [12]. 1.4 Next Week's Key Points - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [13]. - The short - term geopolitical risk premium from the US - Russia summit has ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain liquidity, promote reasonable price increases, and release consumption potential. This week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [17]. - The "dual discount interest" policy has been introduced, with a 1 - percentage - point annual discount interest rate. The personal consumer loan discount interest policy has a cumulative discount interest cap of 3000 yuan per borrower, and the service industry business entity loan discount interest policy has a maximum loan scale of 1 million yuan per household [17]. - China's deflation pressure eased slightly in July. CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI was negative for 34 consecutive months, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest in 17 months [17]. - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The "national subsidy" funds of 138 billion yuan were issued, and the automobile sales volume increased by 14.7% year - on - year [17][18]. - From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [18]. - China and the US suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 11.8% year - on - year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the PPI in July increased significantly, with a 3.3% year - on - year increase. CPI was flat compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expected, while core CPI reached a five - month high, higher than expected [19]. - After the release of the US CPI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.1%. Trump nominated E·J·Anthony as the next director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expanded the list of candidates for the Fed chairman [19]. - The EU plans to formulate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese central bank is under pressure to abandon an inflation indicator to pave the way for an interest rate hike [19]. - Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade team will meet with China in the next two or three months. The US - Russia summit has not reached an agreement but is close [20]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - On August 18, the US will release the NAHB housing market index for August. - On August 20, China will release the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August, and the eurozone will release the CPI and core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month for July, as well as the preliminary PMI values for August. - On August 21, the US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, the Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values for August, and the year - on - year total of existing home sales in July. - From August 22 to 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held (to be determined). [21]

分析人士指出，关税落地存在时滞、企业前期囤库、需求疲软等因素导致关税对通胀传导暂时不显著。但他们表示，关 税影响"只会迟到不会缺席"，此轮关税战中，美国通胀很可能呈现慢热的趋势。 根据美国劳工统计局近日发布的数据，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与6月持平，但低于市场预期的 2.8%；剔除食品和能源价格后，核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，为5个月来最快增速，高于预期的3.0%及6月的2.9%。7月核心 CPI环比从6月的0.3%回落至0.2%，仅温和上升。 分析人士指出，核心CPI上涨的主要推手是房租、医疗服务和航空票价，分别上涨0.2%、0.7%和4.0%；食品价格持平； 能源和汽油价格则分别下跌1.1%和2.2%。而服装、娱乐商品、家具等对进口依赖度较高的分项价格虽环比略有上行， 但增速回落，环比增速分别下行0.36、0.35、0.28个基点，显示关税对通胀的传导幅度并没有意想中的大。 国盛宏观首席经济学家熊园对智通财经表示，美国通胀更偏"慢热"而非"不热"，关税影响"只会迟到不会缺席"，但大概 率是逐步抬升，而非突然大幅飙升。 数据来源：wind， 制图：智通财经 自今年4月美国总统唐纳德·特 ...

尽管近期数据显示美国经济增长引擎正显露疲态，但美银一份关键报告却描绘了截然不同的景象。 美国银行最新信用卡数据显示，7月消费者支出出现意外反弹，家庭信用卡和借记卡总支出同比增长 1.8%，创今年新高。其中，7月经季节性调整的家庭支出环比增长0.6%，较6月的0.2%同比增幅大幅提 升。 季节性促销与关税担忧或为主要推手 尽管7月份的数据令人振奋，但其背后可能存在临时性因素，这让分析师对消费势头的可持续性持谨慎 态度。 首先，在线零售商的促销活动似乎是主要驱动力。 这一增长具有广泛性，零售和此前连续三个月下滑的服务业支出均有贡献。具体来看，服务业支出环比 增长0.9%，为2024年4月以来的最大增幅，扭转了近期的疲软态势。 此外，此前放缓的非必需消费领域也在7月有所改善。与6月相比，7月航空公司和住宿的支出均出现回 升，而餐饮和酒吧的支出则保持稳定。同时，机场客流量在经历了5月和6月的低迷后，自7月初以来已 开始超越2024年同期水平。 基于这些数据，美银预测，周五即将公布的7月零售销售（除汽车外）数据将环比增长0.3%，而更能反 映核心消费需求的"控制组"销售（除汽车、汽油、建筑材料和餐饮服务）数据将录得0. ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - The core CPI in the US rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking the largest increase since January [1] - The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with falling gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, but rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of tariffs [1][3] - Excluding food and energy, the prices of major commodities rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in July [3] Group 2: Price Increases in Specific Sectors - Shoe prices surged by 1.4% in July, the highest monthly increase in over four years, following a 0.7% rise in June [3] - Furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices rose by 2.2%, the highest level in over two years [3] - Prices for toys saw a slight increase of 0.2% in July after larger increases in previous months [5] Group 3: Tariff Impact on Consumer Prices - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for clothing and textiles, with estimates suggesting a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 [3] - The average tariff rate in the US is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest since 1935, with expectations that it could exceed 18% [7] - Economists predict that the overall inflation rate in the US will rise to around 3.5% by the end of the year [6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be gradual rather than sudden, leading to a slow decline in purchasing power [8] - The overall effect of tariffs on prices may be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a sustained increase [9] - Financial markets have shown sensitivity to economic growth and inflation data, with recent weak labor market data contributing to market reactions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The July inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates stable inflation, primarily due to a significant drop in energy prices, which lowers the barriers for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month and falling short of the market expectation of 2.8%. Month-on-month, it rose by 0.2%, consistent with market expectations, but the increase narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to June [1]. - Energy prices were a major drag on the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6% in July, a drop that expanded by 0.8 percentage points from June. Month-on-month, energy prices fell by 1.1%, contrasting with a 0.9% increase in June [1]. Employment Data Summary - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the non-farm employment figures for May and June, with May's jobs revised from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [3]. Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts due to the cooling labor market. The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman, expressed support for three rate cuts in 2025 and urged for a rate cut to begin in September [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the evidence of a weakening labor market and the absence of persistent inflation from tariffs suggest that the timing for rate cuts is approaching, potentially requiring more than two cuts this year [5]. Inflation Risks and Economic Outlook - Analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the Treasury Secretary's view on tariffs, noting that service inflation remains stubborn. The core goods inflation year-on-year rose to 1.2% in July, up from negative values in March, with used car prices showing a nearly 5% increase [6]. - Concerns about the lagging effects of tariffs on prices suggest that their impact will become more apparent in the third and fourth quarters, with warnings about potential re-inflation risks [7]. The anticipated slowdown in U.S. GDP growth from 2.6% in 2024 to below 2% in 2025 reflects the broader economic risks associated with prolonged high interest rates and tariff impacts [7].

招商宏观研报称，美国7月CPI同比2.7%，小幅低于市场预期的2.8%，主因能源和食品价格降温；核心 CPI则体现出服务价格的反弹。本月，关税敏感型商品的涨价仍属局部现象、且涨幅较上月边际放缓， 海外市场对于关税通胀传导超预期的风险解除，美元指数回落，政策敏感型的美债2年前收益率小幅下 行，海外市场对美联储9月降息的预期强化，对美股三大指数形成提振。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that inflation has not worsened, leading to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][12]. Economic Indicators - The CPI for July met expectations, with the overall index showing stability [5]. - The housing index increased by 0.2%, contributing significantly to the CPI rise, while food prices remained flat and energy prices fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 2.2% [6]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in June, with notable increases in healthcare, airfare, entertainment, household goods, and used cars, while lodging and communication indices declined [6]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock futures rose, with major indices opening higher, reflecting investor optimism regarding potential rate cuts [1][2]. - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 87%, up from 57% the previous month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [13]. Inflation Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the July CPI data does not indicate excessive inflation, supporting the feasibility of a rate cut in September [7]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as gradual, with some economists noting that inflation pressures appear manageable, which is a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [9]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts a divergence in short-term core inflation trends, with a three-month annualized rate expected to rise to 2.7%, while the six-month rate may drop to 2.4% due to price increases in tariff-sensitive goods [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to have sufficient confidence to resume rate cuts in September as long as inflation remains under control [7][12]. - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that the actual trajectory of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation may be closer to the 2% target than reported, suggesting that the risks of sustained inflation from tariffs are diminishing [13].