Core Insights - Japan's real wages have seen a significant decline, dropping 2.9% year-on-year in May, which is the largest decrease since September 2023, primarily due to inflation outpacing wage growth [2] - The nominal wages increased by 1% in May, but this was substantially below market expectations, indicating ongoing pressure on the cost of living ahead of the upcoming elections [2] - The political landscape is becoming increasingly challenging for Prime Minister Kishida, as public dissatisfaction grows due to rising prices and stagnant wages [2][3] Wage and Inflation Data - Consumer inflation in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, with core inflation at 3.7%, significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [2] - Basic wages increased by 2.1% year-on-year in May, while stable indicators excluding bonuses and overtime showed a 2.4% rise, maintaining a growth rate above 2% for nearly two years [3] - The average wage increase from spring labor negotiations reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, covering about 10% of the workforce [4] Economic and Political Implications - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed cash handouts and measures to boost wages, but public support appears to favor opposition proposals for tax cuts [3] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage and price dynamics, with the next monetary policy meeting scheduled for July 31, where the benchmark interest rate is expected to remain at 0.5% [3] - Long-term labor shortages are driving wage increases, particularly in the IT sector, but potential threats from increased tariffs could limit companies' ability to sustain wage growth [4]

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline since September 2023, which poses a significant challenge for Prime Minister Kishida ahead of the upcoming elections [1][4] - The nominal wage growth was only 1%, significantly below economists' expectations, primarily due to reduced bonuses [1][4] - The largest labor union, Rengo, reported a 5.25% increase in agreed wages this year, the highest in 34 years, driven by inflation and labor shortages [1][6] Group 2 - Japan's core inflation rate reached 3.7% in May, well above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with essential goods and services driving the increase [4] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed cash handouts and measures to stimulate wage growth, but recent polls indicate low public support for these initiatives [4][5] - Despite the decline in real wages, the Bank of Japan may still consider further interest rate hikes due to the ongoing nominal wage increases and inflation pressures [4][7] Group 3 - Basic wages increased by 2.1% in May, with stable indicators showing full-time employee wages rising by 2.4%, maintaining growth above 2% for nearly two years [5][6] - Structural labor shortages are pushing companies to raise wages to attract and retain talent, particularly in sectors like information technology [6] - Economic uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff policies, pose risks to wage growth momentum, especially for large manufacturers [6][7]

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have garnered significant attention, particularly among investors and collectors [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a strong US dollar, changes in inflation expectations, and adjustments in capital flows due to shifts in Federal Reserve interest rate policies [2] - Investors are advised to adopt either a long-term holding strategy or a short-term trading approach based on their individual goals and risk tolerance [3] Price Analysis - On July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 771.12 RMB per gram, down by 4.69 RMB from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease of approximately 0.605% [1] - The price fluctuation range for that day was between 767.12 RMB per gram and 774.79 RMB per gram [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is typically negative; a stronger dollar often leads to lower gold prices [2] - Investors should closely monitor international economic conditions and monetary policy developments to understand potential impacts on gold prices [2] Investment Strategies - Long-term investors view gold as an effective hedge against inflation, making short-term price fluctuations less significant [3] - Case studies illustrate that frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities for price rebounds, emphasizing the importance of a well-defined investment strategy [3] Domestic vs. International Gold Pricing - The domestic gold market primarily prices gold in RMB per gram, while the international market uses USD per ounce, leading to price discrepancies influenced by exchange rates and market dynamics [5] - Domestic gold prices may lag behind international movements due to local tax policies and import/export restrictions [5] Gold Purity and Purchase Considerations - Gold purity is a critical factor in determining value, with common standards being 999 (99.9% purity) and 9999 (99.99% purity) [5] - Investors are advised to verify the purity of gold products and prefer certified products from recognized exchanges to ensure quality and authenticity [5] Rational Investment Approach - The recent price decline should not incite panic among investors, as price volatility is a normal market behavior [7] - Successful gold investment requires clear objectives, a sound strategy, and ongoing market monitoring to adjust plans as necessary [7]

金十数据7月4日讯，三菱日联分析师Derek Halpenny在一份报告中说，如果市场加大对今年进一步加息 的押注，日元可能在未来几个月走强。数据显示，市场只定价了9月份加息3个基点的预期。他说，这看 起来太低了。如果美国和日本在对等关税暂停期于7月9日结束之前达成一项不太具有破坏性的贸易协 议，这将增加日本央行恢复加息的可能性。在谈判之后，日本的工资上涨幅度加大，周五的数据显示， 5月份家庭支出激增，这也应该会鼓励进一步加息。 市场分析：日元可能因加息押注增加而受到提振 ...

| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising energy costs are the primary driver of the recent depreciation of the Japanese yen, which has been further exacerbated by inflationary pressures and market uncertainties [2][3][6] - Japan's reliance on imported oil has led to increased foreign exchange demand, weakening the yen's market liquidity, and contributing to a widening trade deficit [3][6] - The market anticipates potential adjustments to Japan's negative interest rate policy due to rising corporate goods prices, which could provide some support for the yen in the medium term [4][6] Group 2 - There is a growing contradiction between policy interventions and market expectations, as public criticism from U.S. officials regarding the yen's exchange rate has heightened vigilance within the Japanese government [5][6] - The interplay between rising energy import costs and expectations of a policy shift creates a complex environment for the yen, which is likely to face continued pressure in the short term [6]

Group 1 - The euro to Japanese yen exchange rate is rising, nearing a one-year high, driven by the continued weakness of the yen [1] - The US dollar index has significantly declined, marking the largest drop for the same period since 1973, with non-US currencies strengthening, particularly the euro, which has seen a cumulative increase of 13.86% against the dollar in the first half of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy with a benchmark interest rate between 0 and 0.1%, indicating that the current financial environment will continue unless there is a significant price trend change [1] Group 2 - The Japanese authorities' intervention expectations regarding exchange rate fluctuations add uncertainty to the market, with the Bank of Japan conducting checks on the euro to yen exchange rate [2] - The euro to yen exchange rate reached 175.43, a new high since the euro's introduction in 1999, and if it approaches 180, intervention by Japanese authorities is likely [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan's policy meetings for potential changes in bond purchase scales and interest rate decisions, which could impact the currency market [2]

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行理事会成员Hajime Takata警告称，该行的加息周期仅会"短暂暂停"，之后 将重启。尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁对日本商品加征比此前更高的关税，给经济前景蒙上阴影， 但Takata仍维持其鹰派立场。 作为资深经济学家及前债券分析师，Takata在以往演讲中曾多次提及，随着经济活动改善，有必要提高 借贷成本。2024年3月，日本央行历史性结束大规模货币宽松政策前，他的类似表态帮助投资者为政策 转向做好了准备。 鉴于美国政策存在高度不确定性，他强调："央行需以更灵活的方式执行货币政策，避免过度悲观。" Takata发表此番言论时，日本的通胀增速仍处于七国集团(G7)最高水平。5月，一项关键生活成本指标 创下两年新高，而央行上月的会议记录也显示，官员们普遍认为物价上涨势头略超预期。 "日本经济已处于接近实现物价稳定目标的阶段，"Takata表示，"货币政策进一步调整的关键在于企业积 极行为的可持续性。" 日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)则多次强调，核心通胀率仍低于2%的政策目标，他希望看到通胀趋 势明确上行后再重启加息，同时也需确认美国贸易政策对经济的潜在影响规模。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's board member Takeda Soichi stated that it is impossible to determine how long the Bank of Japan can wait before raising interest rates based on preset views [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is currently in a position where it cannot make definitive judgments regarding the timing of potential interest rate hikes [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the stagnation in US-Japan trade negotiations poses significant pressure on the Japanese market, with potential tariffs of 30-35% threatening investor sentiment [1][2] - Analysts predict that the trade talks may be delayed until after the Japanese Senate elections, with a possible compromise emerging only after both sides escalate their positions [2][5] - The Japanese government may face political risks, including increased defense spending as a concession to the US and potential electoral backlash against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) due to perceived negotiation failures [5][6] Group 2 - Despite a bleak outlook for manufacturing, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey reveals resilience in the non-manufacturing sector, suggesting a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year, with a 40% probability for October [3][6] - The Japanese stock market is expected to remain under pressure from a strong yen and trade negotiation deadlock, making it an unfavorable environment for stock purchases [6] - Conversely, the bond market may find support from the weak stock market, with a shift in investor interest towards long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [6]