Core Viewpoint - The timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not be delayed due to potential political changes, with indications that a hike could occur as early as October, regardless of the outcome of the ruling party leadership election [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - Tomoyuki Shimoda emphasizes that the upcoming results of the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, including the potential victory of Sanae Takaichi, will have limited actual impact on Japan's monetary policy [2]. - The environment for interest rate hikes is forming, driven by robust corporate profits, structural labor shortages leading to wage increases, and rising food costs, which collectively keep inflation elevated [2]. - Key indicators for the Bank of Japan's decision in October include the "Tankan" business sentiment survey data to be released on October 1 and the stability of the stock market [2]. Group 2: Political Implications - Sanae Takaichi is known for advocating a dual stimulus approach reminiscent of "Abenomics" and openly opposes interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3]. - There are doubts about Takaichi's ability to implement policies that could weaken the yen, which, while beneficial for exports, would increase import costs and exacerbate inflation, a politically sensitive issue in Japan [3]. - The current political uncertainty may increase the likelihood of delaying interest rate hikes, as the new prime minister is expected to maintain a stance of fiscal expansion, particularly if Takaichi is elected [4]. Group 3: Market Divergence and Policy Dynamics - There is a divergence in the market regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next action, with most economists expecting a 25 basis point hike before the end of the year, but opinions vary on whether this will occur in October or January [4]. - The political transition period in Japan is expected to be filled with uncertainty, balancing the potential for fiscal expansion from a new government against the Bank of Japan's tightening needs due to inflation pressures [4]. - This complex interplay between fiscal and monetary policy may lead to upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields [4].

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行预计将在周五的政策会议上维持基准利率不变，这将令市场人士继续寻找该行在下个月或12月调整利率的线索。 接受彭博调查的50位经济学家均表示，在日本央行为期两天的会议结束时，借贷成本将维持在0.5%不变。此次会议是在美联储宣布自去年12月以来的首次 降息并预示今年还将两度降息后不久开始的。 日本央行预计将于明年 1 月加息 此次会议的背景是各种不断变化的因素，这些因素可能会迫使植田和男及其团队在进一步分析之前暂缓行动。除了外界期待已久的美联储重启宽松周期外， 日本国内政治也在首相石破茂表示将辞职后陷入动荡。此外还有全球贸易问题。 知情人士早些时候表示，日本当局仍需评估美国在国内外加征关税可能带来的影响。 不过，由于加息猜测持续发酵，日本央行的观察人士将仔细研究植田和男在会后新闻发布会上的任何信号。知情人士称，日本当局认为有可能在年底前再次 加息。 经济学家Taro Kimura表示："日本央行需要减少刺激措施，因为实际利率严重为负，通胀率高于目标水平，而且有稳定的工资增长作为支撑。但下一步行动 可能要等到10月份。就目前而言，动荡的政治局势将使日本央行暂时按兵不动。" 在日本央行九人委 ...

最近几年，美国经济老出点事儿，尤其是银行那边，接二连三地有机构倒闭，这事儿闹得全球金融圈子都跟着晃荡。 话说2023年那会儿，美国银行失败的案子特别扎眼，先是硅谷银行在3月10日栽了跟头，这家银行资产规模高达2090亿美元，主要服务科技初创企业，结果 因为美联储加息太猛，债券价值缩水，客户挤兑资金，它就扛不住了。 紧跟着，3月12日Signature银行也挂了，资产1100亿美元，这家专注加密货币业务的银行同样中了利率上升的招。 到了5月1日，First Republic银行步后尘，资产规模差不多2300亿美元，算是2023年最大的一笔失败案子。 这些银行倒闭直接拉低了全球银行股，美联储赶紧出面干预，联邦存款保险公司接管资产，卖给大银行比如摩根大通，避免更大范围的恐慌。 其实这些失败不是孤立的，美国从2022年开始加息，基准利率一路推到5.25%-5.5%，目的是压通胀，但银行手里那些长期债券价格就崩了。2023年总共五家 银行失败，比前几年多多了。 转到2024年，情况缓和点，只有一两家小银行出问题，比如费城的Republic First银行在4月底失败，资产规模60亿美元，主要原因是管理不善和房地产贷款 ...

Group 1 - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a leadership change in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen further [1] - The company shorted the US dollar when the USD/JPY exchange rate approached 150, believing that action from the Bank of Japan in October is likely [1] - Investors view the newly announced candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his potential rival, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as favoring loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - BlueBay expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to fluctuate towards 140 in the short term, with a fair value closer to 135 in the medium term; the yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 [1] - The company's views contrast with hedge funds, which have increased short positions in the yen for four consecutive weeks, while strategists from Bank of America and HSBC also predict further depreciation of the yen [4] - BlueBay has increased its yen positions in the past month, driven by indications from Bank of Japan officials that policy normalization is on track, barring political risks [4] Group 3 - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year is currently estimated at around 60%, according to overnight index swaps (OIS) pricing [4] - The political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan have pushed up long-term government bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently reaching a historical high of 3.285% [4] - If Koizumi wins the LDP leadership election and the Bank of Japan implements a rate hike, BlueBay may consider shifting to a long position in long-term Japanese government bonds [5]

Core Viewpoint - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a political transition in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - BlueBay's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, has taken a position in USD/JPY just below 150, anticipating a high likelihood of action in October [1]. - The firm expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to drop to around 140 in the short term, with a reasonable mid-term rate close to 135 [2]. Group 2: Political Context - Japanese Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has announced his candidacy for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with investors believing he is more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his rival, Sanae Takaichi [1]. - The LDP, Japan's largest ruling party, will hold its leadership election on October 4, following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after a poor showing in the July elections [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Despite political turmoil, there is speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again this year, with traders increasing bets on further tightening of monetary policy [2]. - Current overnight index swap trading indicates a 60% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of the year [2]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The uncertainty in Japan's political and fiscal landscape has led to a rise in ultra-long bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historical high of 3.285% earlier this month [2]. - BlueBay currently holds a long position in 30-year Japanese government bonds and may consider shifting to a long position in long-term bonds if Koizumi wins the LDP leadership and the Bank of Japan raises rates [2].

在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕，两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 甚至有分析认为，FOMC可能出现罕见的"四方混战"局面，对市场预期构成重大挑战。 Cook获准留任，但投票立场成谜 据央视报道，当地时间9月15日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请，维持 了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间，据央视新闻，参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过了对Stephen Miran出任美联储理 事会成员的提名。在共和党的快速推动下，Miran预计将于周二上午履新，可能也正好赶上本周的美联 储会议。 白宫支持的候选人成功入主美联储理事会，而一位面临总统解雇压力的现任理事则通过法庭裁决保住了 投票权，这使得一场关于央行独立性的政治角力，直接延伸到了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决策 桌上，让本已备受关注的利率决议更添变数。 虽然市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但两位立场截然不同的投票委员的加入，让最终结果变得难 以预测。 Cook的留任为此次会议增添了最大的不确定性。上月，因面临虚报主要住所的抵押贷款欺诈指控， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which add uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political dynamics affecting the central bank's independence [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Their Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision preventing Trump from removing Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][3]. - The Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, which is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [3][9]. - Cook's position is uncertain due to ongoing legal issues, which have become a focal point in the tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Predictions - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but the addition of two contrasting voting members complicates the prediction [4][12]. - Analysts suggest a rare "four-way split" voting scenario could emerge, leading to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC [5][13]. - The potential voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and Cook possibly voting for a 25 basis point increase [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, including the court ruling allowing Lisa Cook to remain and the Senate's approval of Stephen Miran, have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political tensions surrounding the Fed's independence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision, allowing Lisa Cook to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, despite facing pressure from former President Trump [1]. - Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board was narrowly approved by the Senate, with expectations that he will strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Interest Rate Decisions - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, but the addition of Cook and Miran introduces unpredictability, with some analysts suggesting a rare "four-way split" in voting could occur [4][5]. - The potential for a "circus-like" outcome in the FOMC's decision-making process could lead to chaotic signals regarding monetary policy, complicating market reactions [5]. Group 3: Voting Dynamics - The voting landscape may include a strong dovish faction represented by Miran, Waller, and Bowman, who could support a 50 basis point cut, while a moderate faction led by Chair Powell may favor a 25 basis point cut [7]. - Cook's unexpected vote could potentially lean towards a rate hike, reflecting her desire to assert independence amid political pressures [7].

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a potential for further cuts in October and December [14][18][19] - The US job market continues to show signs of weakness, with August non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling trend [12][13] - The technology sector remains a strong investment focus, particularly companies like Zoom and ServiceNow, which are expected to benefit from macroeconomic stability and AI integration [16][19] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - The resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has introduced uncertainty in Japanese economic policy, with potential implications for fiscal sustainability [24][26] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current interest rate stance in September but may consider rate hikes in the future due to persistent inflation [29][30] - Japanese stocks are expected to attract continued investment, particularly in companies like Kyocera and JX Metals, as the yen is projected to appreciate [30][33] Group 3: Indonesian Market Focus - The resignation of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has raised concerns about Indonesia's long-term fiscal outlook, although the new minister, Airlangga Hartarto, aims to maintain fiscal health [46][47] - The Indonesian central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic challenges [47][48] - There is an expectation of strengthened economic cooperation between China and Indonesia, with potential investment opportunities in companies like Pakuwon and Surya Semesta [42][46]

【穆迪分析预计日本央行周五维持短期政策利率0.5%不变，明年1月或加息】穆迪分析在一份报告中表 示，因贸易风险和国内疲软令前景堪忧，预计日本央行将在周五保持其短期政策利率于0.5%不变。该 机构指出，上半年增长好于预期以及日元疲软让加息具备可能性，但鉴于出口和工业产值下降、消费者 支出艰难，日本央行可能暂时不采取行动。穆迪预计日本央行将在明年1月份加息，不过认为今年晚些 时候也存在加息的可能。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...