Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical risks. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply tightness persisted, with high scrap premium. Recommended waiting for clearer direction before trading [1]. - **Aluminum**: Prices declined slightly. Supply increased, while demand rose marginally. Short - term trend was expected to be oscillatory [1]. - **Alumina**: Prices dropped slightly. Some producers cut production, while demand remained high. Short - term prices were expected to be weak [1]. - **Lead**: Prices decreased. Supply was constrained by raw materials, and demand was affected by high prices. Recommended waiting and watching [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand was supported. Organic silicon planned to cut production. Recommended waiting and watching [1][2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices increased. Demand was strong in the short - term, but weak in the long - term. Recommended low - level long positions with caution [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. - **Tin**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply was tight, and demand was stable. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: Prices increased. Inventory decreased, and supply and demand were weak. Recommended holding short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices increased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended short - selling iron ore 2605 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices decreased. Supply and demand were weak. Recommended short - selling coking coal 2605 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices were strong. Global supply was tightening, and demand was good. Domestic market was relatively strong [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply was delayed, and short - term demand was strong. Long - term prices were expected to decline [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil prices increased. Supply was high in the short - term and expected to decrease later. Recommended anti - spread trading [6]. - **Sugar**: Prices decreased. International supply was tight, and domestic supply was expected to increase. Recommended short - selling futures and options [6]. - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US production increased, and domestic demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices were expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Apples**: Prices were stable. Supply was affected by bad weather, and inventory was low. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: Prices were flat. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [7]. - **PTA**: PX prices were high, and PTA supply pressure was large. Recommended taking profits on PX long positions and short - selling PTA processing fees [7]. - **Rubber**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory was accumulating. Recommended an oscillatory trading strategy [7]. - **Glass**: Prices decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [8]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [8]. - **MEG**: Prices oscillated. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Recommended short - selling above a certain level [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were bearish, but geopolitical risks were high. Short - term oscillations were expected, and short positions were recommended if supply reduction was less than expected [8]. - **Styrene**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were improving in the short - term but weak in the long - term. Recommended short - term oscillations with limited upside [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was stable, and demand was balanced. Recommended waiting and watching [9]. - **Urea**: Prices increased. Supply was sufficient, and demand was in the off - season. Short - term oscillations were expected [9].

消费作为日本经济的重要组成部分，本季度表现虽未大幅下滑，但整体趋于平淡，未能形成足够支撑力量去抵消外贸和投资的弱势。 消费者情绪在物价持续高位与经济前景不明的情况下依旧谨慎，这也制约了整体经济反弹的力度。 在这样的背景下，日本央行的决策空间app-mt5 . com受到挤压。此前市场普遍认为，央行可能在今年年底前再次调整利率，以应对国 内持续的物价压力。然而最新的经济数据让这一判断变得更加复杂。经济的意外收缩或促使政策制定者重新评估紧缩节奏，甚至推迟 任何进一步的加息行动。 总体来看，日本经济正处在多方因素交织的微妙时期。外部不确定性与内部调整叠加，使未来的政策路径更具挑战性。市场正在密切 关注央行与政府的下一步行动，以判断日本经济能否在年末或明年初重新回到稳定轨道。 日本第三季度经济再度传来疲软信号，打破过去六个季度的增长趋势，为未来的政策决策蒙上更深阴影。最新公布的初步数据指出， 日本经济在三季度出现了实质性下滑，显示出多重压力叠加下的脆弱性，也让外界对日本央行的加息路线产生更多疑问。 根据政府公布的信息，三季度日本实际经济活动出现明显放缓，外部环境的变化是主要原因之一。受海外需求疲软及贸易压力上升的 影 ...

新华财经北京11月17日电日本政府周一公布的数据显示，日本经济年化收缩幅度为1.8%，按季度计算，该国GDP下滑0.4%，为六个季度 以来首次出现负增长。日债市场当天几乎全线下跌，收益率普遍上行，10年期日债收益率上行3.4BPs至1.734%。经济学家认为，日本经 济出现的首次萎缩，使日本央行下次加息的时间表进一步复杂化。 当天盘中及盘后交易时段，投资者在抛售除3个月期短债以外的日债，其中超长期日债的抛售情绪尤甚，20年期日债收益率涨3.2BPs至 2.748%，30年期日债收益率上涨5BPs至3.263%。 然而，一些经济学家表示，由于房地产行业对利率很敏感，在看到疲弱的结果后，政府可能会更加反对加息。日本央行下一次政策会议 定于12月18日至19日举行。 | 期限品种 | 收益率% | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | | JPN 3-MO | 0.439 | -0.046 | | JPN 2-YR | 0.935 | +0.006 A | | JPN 3-YR | 1.052 | +0.012 A | | JPN 5-YR | 1.258 | +0.011 A | | JPN 10-Y ...

前言 会谈没信号，日元跌穿155 你发现没，最近日本金融圈跟炸了锅似的。11月中旬一开盘，日元兑美元汇率"哐当"一下就砸穿了 155，这可是今年2月之后头一回碰着这个危险线。 咱先掰扯清楚，这事儿的根儿，就出在日本新首相高市早苗和央行行长植田和男的第一次面对面聊天 上。 时间回到11月12号，高市早苗主持经济会议，特意把植田和男叫了过来。 这俩人在经济政策上就是"死对头"——高市早苗打上台就喊着"钱要松着花"，之前甚至骂过央行加息 是"愚蠢行为"；植田和男呢，一直琢磨着"等条件够了就把利率往上提一提"。 所以他俩一见面，全日本的交易员都盯着直播，手里的鼠标都攥出汗了。 结果会议结束，交易员们差点集体骂娘。没有加息承诺，没有强硬表态，连句"再贬就出手"的狠话都没 有。 11月中旬的日本，被日元汇率搅得鸡犬不宁——兑美元直接贬穿155，这是今年2月后的首次。 根源就在高市早苗对央行的"下手"，她和植田和男的会谈没等来加息信号，反而把宽松调子定得死死 的。 普通人愁进口牛肉涨2成，丰田却笑出褶，日元每贬1元，它就多赚百亿。 高市早苗就翻来覆去说一句话："政府和央行得抱成团"，还逼着植田和男以后定期给她汇报工作——明 ...

花旗预计到2026年第二季度，铜价将继续攀升至平均1.2万美元/吨（牛市情况为1.4万美元/吨）；预计 今年剩余时间铜交易价格约为1.1万美元/吨。忽略近期实物需求疲软的因素，目标价反映出2026年更看 涨的基本面设置，但如果看涨催化剂出现，铜价可能比预期更快涨至1.2万美元/吨。全球制造业情绪好 坏参半，意味着2025年剩余时间内周期性铜需求板块上行空间有限。预计在2024年较强劲消费的基础 上，2025年第四季度铜消费同比增长将持续走软，制造业活动也将放缓，但预计在美国宽松的财政和全 球货币政策的帮助下，到2026年将出现复苏。 4. 高盛预测：美国股市将在未来十年内表现逊于新兴市场 国外 1. 野村：预计美联储将在12月暂停降息 野村证券现在预计美联储将在12月维持利率不变，并辩称，尽管美国政府停摆影响了官方数据的发布， 但近期指标仍显示就业市场具有弹性。该行在给客户的一份报告中说，美联储主席鲍威尔在10月新闻发 布会上出人意料的强硬语气，强化了该行的观点，即美联储可能会在连续两次降息后暂停降息。暂停降 息可能会重新引发对美联储的政治压力，预计特朗普总统将批评这一决定，声称这是在大选年到来之际 对经济增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic team at Canada's Scotiabank predicts that inflationary risks from U.S. tariffs will compel the Bank of Canada to initiate interest rate hikes in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Scotiabank expects the Bank of Canada to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points starting in the third quarter of next year [1] - The Bank of Canada recently lowered the benchmark interest rate and indicated that the easing cycle may be over, as it seeks to balance economic growth and inflation control [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The recent rate cut by Scotiabank was described as a precautionary measure against potentially weaker economic outcomes amid uncertainty [1] - The likelihood of initiating a rate hike cycle will depend on the impact of new government spending proposals on the economy [1]

回顾整个2024年，日元一直处于动荡不安之中。特别是在去年年中，在美元的强势打压下，日元对美元 汇率屡创新低，一度跌破160大关。在美联储不断推迟降息时间点以及日本央行加息行动不及预期的共 同影响下，显著的美日利差不断给日元汇率带来下行压力。 在此情况下，日本政府也曾多次采取措施对外汇市场进行干预，但总体来看效果不佳。相比于日本政 府，日本央行的行动被认为更能影响日元汇率表现。不过，在整个2024年日本央行在加息问题上始终保 持谨慎的态度，动作幅度不大，很难给日元汇率带来有效支撑。 2025年1月，日本央行终于开始行动。在1月的货币政策会议上，日本央行以8比1的多数票决定把货币政 策利率从0.25%提升至0.5%，符合市场预期。虽然日本央行在2024年3月和7月也曾加息两次，但加息幅 度均未达到25个基点。 在刚刚过去的10月，日元对美元持续贬值，不免让人想起2024年日本政府出手干预日元汇率的情景。不 过，从目前的情况看，市场普遍认为，当前日元汇率还没跌到触发干预的红线，因此日本政府暂时还不 会主动入市。 与此同时，日本央行最新公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，有一名委员明确表示，"进一步推进政策 利率正常 ...

Macro Economic Overview - China's CPI year-on-year growth has turned positive, driven by rising food prices and core inflation, with the core CPI growth reaching a six-month high of 1.2% [5] - PPI recorded its first month-on-month increase in a year, with a year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential improvement in profitability for leading enterprises [5] - China's exports have significantly declined in October, particularly to developed countries, highlighting increasing economic growth pressures [6] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24% [6] - The healthcare sector has seen a recent pullback of 10% since October, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [6] - The demand for innovative drug research and development is recovering, supported by capital market financing and increased overseas clinical trials [6] Company Analysis - BeiGene (百济神州) has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with a strong sales growth trend driven by its drug Zanu, which is gaining market share in the CLL market [10] - The company achieved a revenue of $3.81 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 43% year-on-year increase, and expects to exceed its revenue guidance for the fiscal year [10] - BeiGene's operational efficiency has improved, with a reduction in sales and management expenses as a percentage of product sales, leading to a net profit of $125 million in Q3 2025 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a cautious approach in the healthcare sector, focusing on undervalued stocks such as 三生制药 (3SBio), 固生堂 (Gusongtang), and others [9] - BeiGene is rated as a "Buy" with a target price raised to $392.43, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential in the CLL market [12] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) reported a record revenue of $635 million in Q3 2025, with a maintained "Hold" rating and a target price of HKD 68, indicating that its valuation is already reflected in the current market price [12]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting summary indicates that the earliest possible interest rate hike could occur in December, aligning with market expectations [1] - A member of the policy committee stated that conditions for further normalization of policy rates are likely to be in place, emphasizing the need to continue monitoring core inflation trends [1] - The summary reveals a consensus among committee members that the timing for a rate hike is approaching, consistent with recent comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2 - Following the summary release, the yen appreciated slightly against the dollar, trading at approximately 153.80 yen per dollar, recovering from a recent eight-month low of 154.48 [2] - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed that Japan has not yet achieved sustainable inflation supported by wage growth, suggesting a preference for the Bank of Japan to slow down rate increases [2] - Kishida indicated that while consumer price index remains around 3% due to rising food prices, Japan has only completed half of the task towards achieving stable inflation supported by wage growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent meeting minutes indicate a growing consensus among policymakers for a potential interest rate hike, contingent on sustained corporate wage growth and economic conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Hike Considerations - Eight out of nine committee members expressed the need for a timely interest rate increase or set specific conditions for a future hike [1] - The timing of any rate increase will depend on corporate earnings reports and executive statements confirming ongoing wage increases [1] - A committee member emphasized the importance of not missing the opportunity to raise rates, despite the current situation not necessitating immediate action [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Decisions - The impact of U.S. tariffs and the wage growth momentum of Japanese companies are critical factors in determining the timing of the next rate hike [2] - Another committee member noted that raising the policy rate is part of the normalization process, which could help mitigate future economic distortions [3] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate at 0.5%, with two members opposing this decision and advocating for a rise to 0.75% [1] - Following the appointment of Prime Minister Kishida, who supports expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the Bank of Japan faces political challenges regarding its monetary stance [3] - A recent survey indicated that a majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates within the current quarter, with nearly 96% predicting a hike by the end of March [3]