1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on dips [1] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1] - **PVC**: Short - term bullish [1] - **PX**: Bullish [1] - **PTA**: Bullish [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Glass**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7] - **LPG**: Cost - end oil price stabilizes and rebounds, with valuation repaired. Long positions should be taken profit due to potential cost - end weakness [1][13] - **L**: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced. Consider going long on dips [1][17] - **PP**: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains. Consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1][22] - **PVC**: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices. Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment [1][27] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized. Short - term bullish [1][31] - **PTA**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery. Consider going long on dips [2][35] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Bullish due to low inventory and cost support [2][39] - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips [2][42] - **Urea**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good. 01 long positions can be held, and call options can be sold [2][46] - **Asphalt**: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases. Consider shorting with a light position [3] - **Glass**: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient. Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid. Short - term bullish [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On August 22, WTI rose 0.22%, Brent fell 0.66%, and SC rose 0.88% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost short - term prices, but long - term supply surplus pressure increases. Focus on the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7] - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PG main contract closed at 4392 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [11] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Follow the oil price trend [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions due to potential cost - end weakness, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7380 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips, and focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on short - term pullbacks, and focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [22] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices, but supply and inventory pressure exist [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, and focus on the range of [5000 - 5100] for V [27] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6940 - 7050] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and consider buying TA on dips. Focus on the range of [4850 - 4930] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Low inventory and cost support [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips and the 9 - 1 calendar spread. Focus on the range of [4470 - 4550] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips, and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [43] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [45] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1730 - 1760] for UR01 [47] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [3] Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For styrene, the fundamental situation is characterized by high profits, high production, and high inventory. There will be pressure from the concentrated commissioning of new plants in September - October. The short - term is bullish with the market, and in the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades [1]. - PTA's fundamentals have recently improved. Supply pressure has decreased and downstream demand has increased, resulting in a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. However, due to the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil and short - term sentiment disturbances, it is recommended to focus on short - term long - position band operations [2]. - Caustic soda has shown a strong performance. It is affected by anti - involution sentiment and potential production reduction due to the 9.3 military parade. Although its fundamentals have strengthened, the high supply still exerts pressure, and the upside space may be limited. It is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider short - term long opportunities based on 15 - minute fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Logical Analysis Styrene - After reaching a two - month low this week, styrene showed a slight volume - up move. The rebound occurred after the rumor of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The supply growth is faster than the demand growth, and the inventory remains at a historical high. The fundamental driving force is downward, but it is bullish in the short - term with the market [1]. PTA - PTA showed a strong performance this week. After a low - level shock, it had a volume - up move. Its fundamentals have improved, with supply pressure decreasing and downstream demand entering the peak season. However, due to the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil, short - term long - position band operations are recommended [2]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda was strong this week, affected by anti - involution sentiment and potential production reduction due to the 9.3 military parade. Although its fundamentals have strengthened, the high supply still exerts pressure, and the upside space may be limited [4]. 2. Weekly Fundamentals Styrene - As of the week of August 22, the capacity utilization rate was 78.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year increase of 9.77%. The weekly production was 37.08 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 23.8%. The non - integrated device profit was - 238.13 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 91 yuan/ton. The integrated device profit was 564.48 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 44 yuan/ton. The national inventory was 20.65 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 29% [5]. PTA - As of the week of August 22, the PTA operation rate was 72.9%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5%. The polymerization operation rate was 90%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. As of August 15, the overall social inventory of PTA was 225 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 tons. The weekly spot processing fee increased by 51 yuan to 249 yuan/ton [6][7]. Caustic Soda - As of the week of August 22, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 39.64 tons (wet tons), with a week - on - week decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 16.67%. The capacity utilization ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 22.38%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.58%. The chlor - alkali gross profit was 349 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 164% [8]. 3. Technical Analysis - The hourly cycle of the styrene 2510 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 7330 [9]. - The hourly cycle of the PTA2601 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 4840 [9]. - The hourly cycle of the caustic soda 2601 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 2670 [9]. 4. Strategies - For the styrene 2510 contract, look for short - selling opportunities after breaking the support level on the hourly level, and look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [15]. - For the PTA2601 contract, look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [16]. - For the caustic soda 2601 contract, look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1][11][13] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [1][25][28] - **PX**: Bullish, hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Bullish, look for buying opportunities on 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish, hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish, lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][61][64] 2. Report's Core Views - **Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Pay attention to oil price changes at the cost end, take profit on long positions as the upstream oil supply exceeds demand [1][11][14] - **L**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastics have positive fundamental expectations, and it is advisable to try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Follow the chemical sector's rebound, but the supply is still under pressure. Try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Warehouse receipts increase, and there is pressure on the near - term contract. Reduce short positions at low prices [1][25][28] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policies are favorable. Hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and macro - factors are positive. Look for low - buying opportunities [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Total supply increases, but inventory is low. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Fundamentals are weak, but expectations are positive. Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Weak fundamentals, but the export window to India is open. Hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Oil price has room to decline, and supply increases. Lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Supply remains high, and inventory accumulates. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][61][64] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.29%, Brent up 0.42%, and SC up 0.98% [7] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and inventory decline led to a short - term rebound, but long - term pressure comes from OPEC+ production increase and weakening demand [8] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased, India's imports hit a low, and US commercial crude inventory decreased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 21, the PG main contract closed at 4386 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is reasonable. Supply increases slightly, and demand from some downstream industries declines [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be wary of the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastic fundamentals are expected to improve, with increased maintenance and approaching peak demand season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long at lows, focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [22] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price stabilizes, and the chemical sector is strong. Supply is under pressure, but demand in the peak season starts, and prices have support at the bottom [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks, focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, export negatives are realized, and inventory accumulates. Supply may increase in the future [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase production, demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and inventory is high. Macro - policies are favorable [31][32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6918 - 7020] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, supply - side devices reduce production, and demand is expected to pick up during the peak season. Macro - factors are positive [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4840 - 4920] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly, but inventory is low. Demand is expected to rebound during the peak season, and macro - policies are favorable [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, do not chase the market, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4460 - 4530] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. But there are positive expectations [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract at lows and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2405 - 2445] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the urea main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance decreases. Domestic demand is weak, but export is good. There is support at the cost end [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, sell call options due to increased short - term volatility. Focus on the range of [1760 - 1800] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 21, the BU main contract closed at 3464 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and inventory decreases slightly. Valuation is high [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [58] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure with new production lines expected to start. Demand is weak due to low downstream orders and falling real - estate completion area [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [59] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [63] - **Basic Logic**: Supply remains high with insufficient planned maintenance. Demand is mostly rigid, and inventory accumulates [64] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1280 - 1350] for SA [64]

Market Performance - On August 21, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24,241 billion RMB, showing a slight increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Index Performance - The China A50 Index rose by 0.77% with a year-to-date increase of 5.91% [2] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.39% year-to-date, showing an 8.98% rise [2] - The ChiNext Index has a year-to-date decline of 21.19% [2] Sector Performance - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector led with a rise of 1.50%, followed by the Oil and Petrochemical sector at 1.39% and Beauty and Personal Care at 0.98% [7] - The Machinery Equipment sector saw a decline of 1.08%, while the Electrical Equipment sector fell by 0.98% [7] Public Utilities - The implementation of the "Price Law Amendment Draft" aims to break the "loss-subsidy" cycle, with market-oriented pricing for gas and electricity entering the implementation phase [8] - The performance and valuation of public utility companies are expected to improve as subsidy and pricing policies are set to be concentrated in 2025 [8] Chemical Sector - Significant capital inflow was observed in the chemical sector, with the largest chemical ETF (159870) seeing a net subscription of 1.23 billion units, bringing its total size to 6.5 billion RMB [9] - Two potential paths for the chemical sector's anti-involution were identified: proactive industry self-discipline and passive policy-driven improvements [10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-quality green electricity operators and premium offshore wind projects as the new energy sector fully enters the market [8] - The chemical sector's leading companies are expected to have strong bottom configuration value due to their sensitivity to policy changes [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to geopolitical easing and increasing supply - side pressure, but may rebound in the short - term due to unexpected inventory drops [1][5]. - LPG prices have rebounded in the short - term due to cost stabilization and valuation repair, but investors should take profit on long positions due to potential cost weakening [1]. - L prices may improve due to expected production cuts in South Korea and approaching peak demand season, and investors can consider buying on dips [1]. - PP prices face limited rebound space due to weak industry expectations and high warehouse receipts, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - PVC prices are under pressure due to increasing warehouse receipts, inventory accumulation, and policy - affected exports, and short positions should be held [1]. - PX prices are expected to rise as the domestic chemical industry's "anti - involution" may start, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [1]. - PTA prices may increase with the approaching consumption peak season and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices may rise due to low inventory and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [2]. - Methanol prices may increase as negative factors are expected to subside, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract [2]. - Urea prices may be supported by potential fertilizer exports to India, and long positions in the 01 contract can be held [2]. - Asphalt prices are under pressure due to sufficient raw material supply and increasing supply - demand imbalance, and short positions can be lightly established [2]. - Glass prices are expected to decline due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and increasing inventory, and short positions should be held [2]. - Soda ash prices are likely to fall due to high supply, inventory accumulation, and industrial hedging pressure, and short positions should be held [2]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.52%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC down 0.64% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: US crude inventory unexpectedly decreased, but in the long - term, the support from the peak season is weakening, and OPEC+ production increase will put pressure on prices. Supply from Azerbaijan decreased, and India's imports hit a low. US commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories changed [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 20, the PG main contract closed at 4315 yuan/ton, up 0.02% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and the valuation was repaired. Supply decreased, and demand from PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil showed different trends. Inventory decreased [10]. - **Strategy**: Be vigilant about the weakening of cost - end oil prices and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 27 day - on - day. Spot prices also declined, and warehouse receipts increased [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: Plastic accounts for 54% of ethylene demand, and South Korea's production cut expectation supports the market. Current supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to pick up [16][17]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [17][18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [21][22]. - **Fundamentals**: Industry expectations are weak, and high warehouse receipts suppress the rebound. Supply is affected by high - level maintenance, and demand starts slowly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7150] for PP [24][25]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, exports in July exceeded expectations, but new capacity will be released in August, and exports may slow down. Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 weeks [30][31]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [31][32]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side slightly increased production. Demand is weak but expected to improve. PX inventory is still high, but the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations may support prices [35][36]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, look for low - buying opportunities, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6810 - 6900] for PX511 [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton [40]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA processing fees are low, and supply pressure may increase in the future. Demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. TA inventory is still high [41]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, buy put options, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4810] for TA01 [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, but demand is expected to improve with the peak season. Inventory is low, and "anti - involution" policies and macro - expectations may support prices [45]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, do not chase the market, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4440 - 4490] for EG01 [46]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton [48]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost is supported by coal [49]. - **Strategy**: Continue to look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract and sell put options on the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [50]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as the operating rate is expected to rise. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Inventory is high [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract and sell put options. Focus on the range of [1780 - 1810] for UR01 [55]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 20, the main contract closed at 3454 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [56][57]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Inventory decreased slightly [58]. - **Strategy**: Lightly establish short positions. Focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [59]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 day - on - day. The market price in Hubei remained flat [61][62]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, downstream orders are low, and inventory is increasing [63]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [63]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 day - on - day. The market price in Shahe remained flat [66][67]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remains high, inventory is accumulating again, and industrial hedging pressure exists [68][69]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1290 - 1350] for SA [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The profit bottom of the chemical industry has emerged or is approaching. Chemical stocks are more certain investment targets than chemical futures. The absolute price of chemical futures will be stronger than that of raw materials in the near - term, and the profit margin will not be compressed further [3]. - The overall energy and chemical market has returned to a volatile state, and it is still difficult for prices to rise as the actual supply - demand situation has not changed [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Wednesday night. The "Friendship" pipeline has fully resumed normal operation. Russia sells oil to India at a discount of about 5%. The crack spread of refined oil has strengthened recently [2]. - On August 20th, Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, including eliminating small - scale facilities, upgrading old facilities, and shifting investment to new special materials. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually [3]. 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: U.S. inventory is favorable, but the upside space for oil prices is expected to be limited. - **Main Logic**: EIA data shows strong demand in the U.S. refining sector last week, with rising exports and falling imports, and a decline in commercial crude oil inventories. However, in the future, crude oil inventories will face double pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and the accelerated production increase of OPEC+. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation should be noted [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price has shifted from a decline to a volatile state. - **Main Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered the oil price forecast, and the geopolitical premium has declined. However, the cost of asphalt is supported by the increase in oil prices due to the attack on the Druzhba pipeline. The supply shortage has been alleviated, but the demand is still not optimistic. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [10]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium has returned, and high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly increased in a volatile manner. - **Main Logic**: EIA has lowered the oil price forecast and raised the OPEC production forecast. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The attack on Russian refineries has led to a return of the geopolitical premium, but the overall supply exceeds demand. - **Outlook**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease. The price will fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following the crude oil price. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is driven by the increase in the diesel crack spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate following the crude oil price due to low valuation [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The news boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited, and the methanol futures price fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The domestic chemical capacity policy news boosts the price, but the number of old methanol production capacities is small, so the actual impact is limited. The decline in oil prices has put pressure on downstream olefins, which has a传导 effect on methanol. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [29]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price has increased following the futures price, but the futures price has slightly declined as the market sentiment has returned to calm. Downstream buyers are still cautious and waiting for the official export to India. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment has a short - term impact, and the long - term trend will return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand [30]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the price is supported. - **Main Logic**: Although the fundamentals change little, the macro - sentiment has a significant impact, driving the price up in the afternoon. The policy of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the confidence of long - position holders. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the EG09 - 01 reverse spread strategy [22]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The oil price has stabilized slightly, and the sentiment in the domestic chemical market has warmed up again, strengthening the short - term support. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and consolidates, and the decline slows down. The market reacts strongly to the anti - involution policy news in the chemical industry. South Korea's reduction of naphtha cracking capacity is expected to affect overseas imports. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the support at the price of 6600 [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by petrochemical news, the market atmosphere has warmed up, and the support has strengthened. - **Main Logic**: PTA follows the rise of PX as the cost is stronger. The market sentiment in the chemical industry has warmed up, and the anti - involution expectation drives up the price. Although the downstream filament sales have declined, the chip sales have improved. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in August [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. - **Main Logic**: The absolute price follows the upstream cost. The supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin is slightly repaired. The limited new production capacity and the expected increase in peak - season demand will support the price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation and consolidation in the short term [23]. 3.2.11 Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost provides some support, but its own driving force is limited. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream polymerization cost and fluctuates upward. The market sentiment in the domestic chemical industry has warmed up, and the price is expected to be supported. The inventory is expected to decline slowly as the major manufacturers continue to cut production. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [25]. 3.2.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by the news at noon, but the fundamental support is limited, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The news of plant maintenance to solve the petrochemical over - capacity problem stimulates the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the propane price is low, which suppresses the PP valuation. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is still in the off - peak to peak - season transition period，with low operating rates in related industries. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL fluctuates following PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Although the local supply has decreased, the market is still in a wait - and - see state. The downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand. The PP - PL processing margin is around 600, which is considered reasonable. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the plastic price rebounded in the afternoon. - **Main Logic**: The news of plant maintenance boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the global crude oil inventory is under pressure. The macro - level still has capital games, and the plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [31]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease, and the IEA has lowered the global demand growth forecast, putting pressure on the oil market. Pure benzene has performed stronger than the cost this week, mainly due to factors such as the expected reduction in coking and hydro - benzene production, downstream replenishment, and port inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: There is an expectation of a small inventory reduction in August. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the July import data next week [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - **Main Logic**: The price has been fluctuating weakly recently. The positive factors include the slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season inventory replenishment by downstream industries. However, the negative factors are stronger, such as the new production capacity coming on stream and the limited peak - season demand. - **Outlook**: The main port inventory is sufficient, and the market is prone to price increases with volume decreases. The output is expected to increase slightly, and the rigid demand is stable, but the spot demand is weak, so the inventory will continue to accumulate [19]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Pressured by anti - dumping measures, the demand is affected, and PVC is cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are under pressure, with weak cost support. The production may decline slightly during the autumn maintenance, the downstream operating rate changes little, the export is under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and the cost is moving down. - **Outlook**: The futures price is cautiously bearish due to the pressure on export expectations and weak cost support [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot performance is good, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are improving marginally, with increased demand from alumina production and downstream replenishment. However, the export is average, and the increase in maintenance in Shandong may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate. Attention should be paid to the impact of poor chlorine sales on the caustic soda production. - **Outlook**: The downstream is still replenishing inventory, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in market sentiment [36]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the changes in different time - period spreads [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, reflecting the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG are given, showing the price differences between different varieties [41]. 3.4 Index Performance - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined slightly on August 20, 2025 [282]. - **Energy Index**: On August 20, 2025, the energy index had a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.63%, a 1 - month decline of 4.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.71% [284].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in industrial product prices and positively impact PPI and CPI [6][11][17] - The report highlights the significant influence of the energy and chemical sectors on PPI, with their price fluctuations directly affecting overall industrial inflation levels [16] - The industry is under pressure from declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a strong demand for anti-involution measures [17] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is at a historical low, providing substantial upside potential as the sector is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom [17][19] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Inflation Recovery - The report emphasizes that the chemical sector is a crucial lever for inflation recovery, as evidenced by the PPI's continuous decline and the need for policy intervention to combat deflationary pressures [6][11] 2. Reasons to Focus on Chemicals - The energy and chemical sectors account for 25%-30% of PPI, making their price recovery vital for overall inflation [16] - The industry faces significant profitability challenges, with nearly 25% of chemical companies reporting losses in 2024 [17] 3. Paths for Anti-Involution in Chemicals 3.1. Active Approach: Industry Self-Regulation - Certain sub-industries, such as polyester filament and sucralose, are attempting to improve profitability through supply-side collaboration, benefiting from high concentration and low profitability [27][29] - The report identifies key chemical products likely to benefit from self-regulation, including polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and organic silicon [29][31] 3.2. Passive Approach: Policy-Driven Industry Improvement - The report outlines a dual-track policy framework focusing on optimizing existing capacity and strictly controlling new projects to enhance the competitive landscape [27][31] - Historical experiences suggest that effective policy measures will include phasing out outdated facilities and enforcing stricter environmental regulations [27][31]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3700-point mark, closing at 3696.77 points, a new high since September 17, 2021 [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 2.61%, reaching a new high for the year, with over 4600 stocks rising and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days [1] Financial Technology Sector - The financial technology ETF (159851) saw a significant increase, closing up 5.45% and achieving a trading volume of 2.107 billion yuan, marking a historical high [6][9] - Key stocks in the financial technology sector, such as Zhihui and Dazhihui, experienced substantial gains, with Zhihui hitting the daily limit and Dazhihui rising over 16% [6] - The sector's growth is attributed to several factors, including regulatory support from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and improved macroeconomic data [8][9] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector also experienced a strong rally, with the top brokerage ETF (512000) rising by 4.89% and achieving a trading volume of 2.747 billion yuan, a record for the year [10][12] - Major brokerages like Dongfang Caifu and CITIC Securities saw significant inflows, with Dongfang Caifu's trading volume reaching 44.212 billion yuan [10][11] - Analysts suggest that the brokerage sector is entering a new growth phase, driven by increased market attractiveness and improving asset quality [11][12] Real Estate Sector - The real estate ETF (159707) rose by 3.11%, reaching its yearly high, supported by new housing fund policies in cities like Beijing and Suzhou [1] - Recent data indicates a narrowing decline in residential property prices across various cities, contributing to positive sentiment in the real estate market [1] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector showed strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 1.81% and experiencing significant trading activity [17] - Key stocks in the chemical sector, such as Lianhong Xinke and Jinfat Technology, saw substantial gains, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17][19] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing supply-side reforms and improved industry dynamics, enhancing profitability [19][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry, specifically the soda ash sector, is "Positive" and maintained [15]. Core Insights - The report discusses why soda ash is considered a potential good sector for "anti-involution" in the chemical industry, the impact of real estate downturns on soda ash demand, factors driving capacity reduction in the soda ash industry, the emergence of natural soda ash resources in Inner Mongolia, the current market position of soda ash, the elasticity of listed companies in the sector, and highlights of the leading natural soda ash company, Boyuan Chemical [3][7]. Summary by Sections Why is soda ash considered a potential good sector for "anti-involution"? - Soda ash has a global pricing mechanism, and after recent price declines, it has shown a "sales radius" effect. Domestic overproduction has led to a downturn in market conditions, while downstream applications like photovoltaic glass have significant overseas demand, making it a typical "involution" industry. The price of soda ash has dropped significantly since its peak in 2021, with many leading companies reporting losses in recent quarters. The cost curve for soda ash is steep, indicating a clear competitive disparity among companies, which may lead to market exit for less competitive players. The overall operating rate for soda ash remains around 80%, suggesting limited overcapacity and manageable exit challenges. Additionally, potential policy measures related to energy consumption and facility upgrades could accelerate industry clearing from "involution" [7][27]. How to view the impact of real estate downturn on soda ash? - The demand for soda ash from flat glass is declining, with projections indicating that it will account for about 30% of soda ash demand by 2024. Considering the demand from automotive glass and renovation needs, the impact of real estate completions on soda ash demand is estimated to be around 20%. In a pessimistic scenario where completions drop to 50-60% in 2024, the impact on soda ash demand could be approximately 8-10%. However, emerging sectors such as photovoltaic glass, lithium carbonate, and other long-tail demands are expected to effectively offset the decline in real estate demand [8][28]. What factors may drive capacity reduction in the soda ash industry? - Energy consumption and facility upgrades are seen as key drivers for "anti-involution" in the soda ash sector. The proportion of soda ash production capacity that meets energy efficiency benchmarks is still below the guidelines set by the National Development and Reform Commission. Additionally, 31% of soda ash facilities are over 20 years old, which is relatively high compared to other chemical sub-industries [9][52]. What is the impact of the emergence of natural soda ash resources in Inner Mongolia? - The report estimates that even with the planned production of natural soda ash, synthetic processes will still dominate the market. The pricing is expected to be anchored around the full cost of synthetic processes. The supply increase from the natural soda ash project is not anticipated to impact the market significantly until after 2028 [10][64]. What is the current market position of soda ash? - The current market conditions for soda ash are at a low point, with price differentials nearing historical lows and a safety margin in place. Many related listed companies have reported losses in recent quarters, with companies like Shandong Haihua, Xue Tian Salt Industry, and Zhongyan Chemical experiencing declining performance [11][44]. How elastic are listed companies in the soda ash sector, and what are the main recommended stocks? - At the industry bottom, the report recommends investing in Boyuan Chemical, a leading natural soda ash company with cost advantages. It also suggests monitoring the progress of the Naimanqi soda ash project by Zhongyan Chemical and potential developments regarding the leading natural soda ash company [12][62]. What are the highlights of the leading natural soda ash company, Boyuan Chemical? - Boyuan Chemical has three main highlights: growth potential, high dividend payout potential due to cost advantages, and price elasticity options. The company has been generous with dividends, with a payout ratio exceeding 5% in 2024, and has shown a declining debt ratio, indicating strong future cash flow. With the second phase of its project expected to contribute additional capacity, the company is positioned for substantial dividend potential and price elasticity [13][66].

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a widespread dilemma of increasing production without increasing profits, with the industry's operating revenue profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, and remaining low in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The low-quality and homogeneous competition is primarily due to excessive investment and repeated construction, resulting in product homogenization, along with local governments' blind investment promotion exacerbating overcapacity [1] - The central government has proposed comprehensive rectification requirements to address these issues, including strengthening self-discipline, promoting innovation, and eliminating non-compliant capacity based on energy efficiency and environmental standards [2] Group 2: Policy Developments - The chemical industry has seen a gradual deepening of anti-involution policies this year, with significant measures introduced such as the "National Unified Market Construction Guidelines" aimed at curbing repeated construction and market segmentation [2] - In June, a joint notice was issued by five ministries to assess old facilities in the refining and fertilizer sectors, focusing on safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency to promote the exit of inefficient capacity [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to see opportunities for supply-side reforms in areas with significant homogeneous competition, such as refining and certain pesticide varieties, as state-owned enterprises control capacity and new project approvals are restricted [3] - By August 2025, a recovery in overseas demand for certain chemical products and further domestic demand growth is anticipated, with a focus on investment in sectors with improved supply-demand dynamics and scarce resource attributes, particularly electronic resins [4] Group 4: Price Trends - As of July 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decline of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating a slight decrease in the prices of major chemical products [3] - International crude oil prices showed an upward trend in July, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal fuel consumption [4] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The electronic resin sector is poised for growth due to increasing demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The phosphate fertilizer market is experiencing price increases driven by overseas agricultural recovery and supply disruptions, while the pesticide sector is expected to see price recovery due to increased demand and limited supply growth [5][6]