Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China has achieved remarkable success but is now facing challenges such as price declines and reduced profitability, prompting the need for internal adjustments to overcome industry "involution" [2]. Summary by Sections Involution and Competition - "Involution" has become a significant issue across various industries, necessitating a re-evaluation of competitive philosophies and the establishment of new competition rules [3]. - The distinction between healthy and unhealthy competition is crucial, with the latter often leading to value destruction. The recognition of "involution" as a form of harmful competition has gained consensus [4]. Industry Self-Regulation - Industry self-regulation is essential, with associations playing a key role in promoting self-discipline among members. This includes industry planning, policy formulation, technological innovation, and combating unfair competition [6]. - The importance of leading enterprises in setting examples for self-regulation is emphasized, fostering a collaborative ecosystem among businesses [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers and acquisitions are vital for enhancing industry concentration and overcoming involution. Historical examples from the U.S. steel industry illustrate the benefits of consolidation [8]. - The advantages of mergers include strengthening enterprises, improving company quality, facilitating innovation, and increasing industry concentration [9]. Capacity Management - The photovoltaic industry faces a significant supply-demand imbalance, necessitating both production cuts and capacity reductions to stabilize prices and maintain profitability [10]. - Historical practices in the cement industry demonstrate that production limits can effectively balance supply and demand without adversely affecting overall sales [11]. Pricing Strategy - A shift from a volume-based to a price-based profit model is necessary, emphasizing the importance of maintaining pricing power rather than solely focusing on sales volume [12][13]. - Effective pricing strategies can significantly impact profitability, and companies should avoid relying on sales personnel for pricing decisions [14]. Innovation and Value Creation - To transition from a competitive "red ocean" to an innovative "blue ocean," companies must focus on differentiation, market segmentation, high-end product development, and brand building [15][16][17][18]. - The emphasis on innovation is crucial for enhancing product quality and achieving competitive advantages in the market [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]

2025年至今，生猪期现货市场供需博弈加剧，呈现"现货上下两难、期价重心震荡上移"的格局。从产能 角度来看，今年生猪供应宽松，但未出现往年的大跌行情，受养殖端缩量提价、政策调控加码等因素影 响，价格整体走势平稳，行业仍处于磨底阶段。全国生猪现货价格在13500~16500元／吨区间震荡，高 点出现在春节前，低点出现在端午节后。我的农产品网数据显示，8月初，全国生猪出栏均价为14.10元 ／千克，低价区报13.20元／千克。 今年以来，生猪期货主力合约价格波动率整体呈现下降趋势，处于较低水平。上半年期货市场整体 呈"弱预期"走势，市场预期后市供应压力较大，对猪价持悲观预期，年初主力合约价格最低跌至12600 元／吨附近。但在现货市场价格下跌幅度有限的情况下，受期现回归驱动，期货近月合约价格出现向上 修复的补涨行情，彼时正向套利策略普遍表现较好。随后，受4月上旬贸易摩擦、7月生猪行业"反内 卷"政策预期等因素影响，生猪期货价格进入震荡反弹阶段，重心曲折上行。7月23日，主力合约最高涨 至15150元／吨。不过，目前仍处于季节性需求淡季，现货价格大幅贴水期货价格，主力合约价格冲高 回落，7月底震荡回调。临近交割月， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore is expected to shift towards fundamentals in August. Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, while abroad, attention should be paid to tariff dynamics. In the short term, iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level in a range, and in the long term, it may weaken along with finished steel. Currently, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. The inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant, but it is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core Logic**: Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, but the US non - farm payrolls data has been significantly revised down, increasing the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. Coke is about to start the fifth round of price increase. Currently, the inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant. It is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [13]. - **Spot and Futures Market**: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The unilateral open interest of iron ore first increased and then decreased in July. The price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper [13]. - **Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen. At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; at the end of July, the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June [13]. 02 Macro Level - **Macro News in July**: In July, the black - sector fluctuated greatly under market policy expectations and capital speculation, especially in coking coal futures. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's statement at the beginning of the month and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's emphasis on capacity reduction later, along with other events, led to sharp rises and falls in coking coal prices [15]. - **Construction**: In July, the weekly cement delivery volume was about 275 tons, a decrease of about 15 tons/week compared with June. The weekly direct supply of infrastructure cement was about 166 tons, a decrease of about 3 tons/week compared with June. The total cement delivery volume decreased by about 75 tons/week year - on - year, and real - estate demand was a drag [18]. - **Infrastructure**: In July, the weekly concrete delivery volume was about 1.44 million cubic meters, basically the same as in June and year - on - year. The weekly asphalt sales volume was about 26 tons, a decrease of about 2.5 tons/week compared with June [22]. - **Manufacturing**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month, and it was below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The steel PMI was 50.5%, returning above the boom - bust line [24]. 03 Spot and Basis - **Spot Market**: In July, the spot price of steel followed the futures market and strengthened. Affected by coking coal, the black - sector rebounded. The price of coking coal increased significantly, trade merchants held back sales, and the inventory of raw coal in mines decreased significantly. Coke had four rounds of price increases in July, and there was an expectation of a fifth round at the end of the month [28]. - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The price of low - grade iron powder increased less, while that of medium - and high - grade iron powder increased more. The spot benchmark price of the Beijing Iron and Steel Exchange first increased and then slightly decreased [33]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: As of July 31, the closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis on the 31st was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The open interest of iron ore futures first increased and then decreased in July [35][38]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Compared with a month ago, the price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper. As of July 31, the 5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the 9 - 1 spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of June [42][45]. 04 Spread - **Cross - market Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen [50]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June. The fundamentals of iron ore are better than those of steel. Considering the high profits of steel mills, one can consider narrowing the steel - mill profit, but also pay attention to the expectation of crude - steel production reduction [53]. 05 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In July, the weekly shipment volume of iron ore was around 30 million tons, a decrease of about 4 million tons/week compared with June. As of the end of July, the cumulative global shipment volume was 937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [55]. - **47 - Port Arrival Volume**: In July, the weekly arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports was between 23 million and 29 million tons, higher than the same period last year. As of the end of July, the cumulative arrival volume for the year was 762 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23 million tons, a decrease of 2.99% [61]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: In July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines increased slightly, and the daily output of iron powder increased slightly [65][68]. 06 Demand - **Hot Metal Output**: In July, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was around 2.4 million tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The daily average consumption of imported iron ore was about 3 million tons [71]. - **Blast - furnace Operating Rate and Capacity Utilization**: In July, the operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was maintained at 83.46%, a slight decrease from the previous month. The blast - furnace capacity utilization was around 90%, a slight decrease from the previous month and an increase of about 1% compared with the same period last year [73]. - **Profitability of Steel Enterprises**: In July, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises continued to rise. At the end of July, the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 6.06% compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of about 60% compared with the same period last year [76]. - **Production Profit**: In July, the profit of producing rebar in blast furnaces continued to increase. The profit of electric furnaces in the East China region turned from negative to positive, and the profit of electric furnaces in the Southwest region exceeded 200 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils also increased [80][83][87]. 07 Inventory - **Domestic Mine Inventory**: In July, the inventory of iron concentrate in domestic mines continued to decline and remained at a low level [96]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.6462 million tons compared with the end of June. Steel mills maintained a low inventory and mainly purchased on demand [98]. - **Port Inventory**: In July, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 2.5822 million tons compared with the end of June and a decrease of 14.683 million tons year - on - year [101]. - **Surcharge Volume**: In July, the surcharge volume remained at a high level. At the end of July, the number of ships at 45 ports was 90, an increase of 8 compared with the end of June and a decrease of 35 compared with the same period last year. The daily average surcharge volume at 45 ports was maintained above 3 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years [103].

Core Viewpoint - The leading photovoltaic glass company, Fuyao (601865.SH), is actively responding to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's call to reduce photovoltaic glass production capacity to alleviate industry pressure and losses [1][3][4]. Industry Summary - The total cold repair capacity in the photovoltaic glass industry, including Fuyao's reduction, accounts for 32.18% of the domestic total capacity, with operational capacity currently below 87,000 tons per day [2][7]. - The industry is experiencing significant pressure, leading to a reality where production cuts are being implemented to reduce losses, with several companies announcing kiln shutdowns and production reductions [3][4][6]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, resulting in substantial price declines for photovoltaic glass products, which has led to ongoing losses for companies like Hainan Development and Fuyao [6][11]. - The overall production capacity in the photovoltaic industry is expected to continue declining, as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages leading companies to further reduce output [7][15]. Company Summary - Fuyao holds approximately 30% of the global market share in the photovoltaic glass sector and has seen a significant decline in gross margins due to falling prices since the second half of last year [4][11]. - The company is projected to report a net profit of 230 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 81.32% to 84.66% due to industry overcapacity and intensified competition [11]. - Despite the challenges, Fuyao's production capacity utilization for 2024 is still expected to be 91.47%, indicating a relatively stable operational performance compared to other segments [8].

连续两个交易日大跌后，8月4日，焦煤、焦炭期货主力合约止住跌势。经过两周的价格大起大落，双焦期货盘面价格正逐步回归基本面。 截至8月4日收盘，主力合约中焦煤涨2.33%；焦炭主力合约4日收盘跌0.15%，至1615元/吨，较7月24日1822元/吨高点回落不少。 相对于期货盘面的大起大落，双焦现货市场价格整体维持了偏强上行格局。 而需求方面，6月以来炼焦煤供应端减量明显，政策端"反内卷"使得市场情绪回暖，提振贸易商补库需求，导致煤矿资源分流，焦钢企业焦煤到货量减少， 补库需求集中释放。此外，难得一见的上涨行情也刺激了贸易商的投机需求，多重需求共振之下，煤价迎来大涨。数据显示，7月以来独立焦化厂精煤库存 大幅增加162.58万吨，钢厂焦化库存增加18.3万吨。 进入8月份后，焦煤市场价格仍延续偏强震荡格局。 卓创资讯数据显示，上周全国焦煤市场价格稳中有涨，其中山西吕梁地区主焦煤S<1出矿主流成交价格1400元/吨至1450元/吨，较上期价格持平。山东济宁 地区气精煤S<1出矿主流成交价格880元/吨至910元/吨，较上期价格涨25元/吨。 "上周焦煤市场仍偏强运行，基于多方面因素影响。"卓创资讯分析师张敏称，目 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, steel and ore prices declined from their highs due to the fading of market bullish sentiment. The concept of capacity reduction has cooled down, leading to a significant decline in the black market. The trends of finished products and iron ore differ, mainly due to the impact of actual demand. Rebar is dragged down by the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with demand continuing to decrease and showing the weakest performance. Iron ore, on the other hand, is more resilient due to high hot metal production and decreasing inventory. - Although the concept of capacity reduction has cooled down, it is still likely to occur in the steel industry, and the market is not expected to reverse and decline. Before the specific policies of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology become clear, prices are likely to fluctuate, providing opportunities for low - level absorption. - It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of support levels during the decline of steel prices and establish long positions opportunistically. [62] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Raw Material Market Condition Analysis Weekly Data Changes - PB powder price decreased from 781 yuan/wet ton to 768 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 13 yuan/wet ton. - Bar - mixed powder price decreased from 803 yuan/wet ton to 790 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 13 yuan/wet ton. - PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 4.74 yuan/wet ton to - 1.69 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 3.05 yuan/wet ton. - Bar - mixed powder spot landing profit decreased from 1.31 yuan/wet ton to - 4.18 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 5.49 yuan/wet ton. - Australia's shipping volume to China increased from 1385.4 tons to 1489.4 tons, an increase of 104 tons. - Brazil's shipping volume to China decreased from 907.8 tons to 884.3 tons, a decrease of 23.5 tons. - Imported iron ore port inventory decreased from 14395.68 tons to 14222.01 tons, a decrease of 173.67 tons. - Imported iron ore arrival volume decreased from 2511.8 tons to 2319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume decreased from 329.33 tons to 317.91 tons, a decrease of 11.42 tons. - Iron ore port trading volume decreased from 99.9 tons to 60.7 tons, a decrease of 39.2 tons. - Average daily hot metal production decreased from 242.23 tons to 240.71 tons, a decrease of 1.52 tons. - Steel enterprise profitability rate increased from 63.64% to 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points. [6] 2. Market Status Analysis Weekly Data Changes (Steel Products) - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3430 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a drop of 70 yuan/ton. - Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3500 yuan/ton to 3410 yuan/ton, a drop of 90 yuan/ton. - Blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46%. - Electric furnace operating rate increased from 72.02% to 74.21%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points. - Rebar blast furnace profit decreased from 282 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan/ton. - Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased from 261 yuan/ton to 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. - Rebar electric furnace profit increased from - 30 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton. - Weekly rebar production decreased from 211.96 tons to 211.06 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased from 317.49 tons to 322.79 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons. [32] Weekly Data Changes (Inventory and Consumption) - Weekly rebar social inventory increased from 372.97 tons to 384.14 tons, an increase of 11.17 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil social inventory increased from 267.16 tons to 268.65 tons, an increase of 1.49 tons. - Weekly rebar enterprise inventory decreased from 165.67 tons to 162.15 tons, a decrease of 3.52 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil enterprise inventory increased from 78 tons to 79.3 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons. - Weekly rebar apparent consumption decreased from 216.58 tons to 203.41 tons, a decrease of 13.17 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased from 315.24 tons to 320 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons. - Building materials trading volume decreased from 117258 tons to 86678 tons, a decrease of 30580 tons. [34] 3. Supply - Demand Data Analysis - The report also presents various data related to blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, actual production of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel profits, inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils in enterprises and society, trading volume of building materials, apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel exports, real estate development indicators, and manufacturing PMI, but no specific data summaries are provided here as they are mainly presented in graphical forms. [41][44][46]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has experienced a significant decline, with sectors such as coal and polysilicon seeing an approximate 5% drop, and leading steel companies falling over 10% [2] - The technology sector, including chips and AI concepts, also faced minor pullbacks, while banking stocks rose as a safe haven [2] - Recent U.S. employment data showed a disappointing increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, leading to a major revision of previous months' data [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government has made changes in response to the employment data, including the removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has caused market reactions [3] - The current geopolitical climate may lead to adjustments in U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs on China, which could see a 90-day exemption extended [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of the trade war and a new round of "capacity reduction" initiatives in China, emphasizing the interconnectedness of these events [2][4] - The trade war has led to the introduction of additional tariffs on goods identified as transshipment trade, which may influence future trade agreements globally [3][4] - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission's recent meeting has mandated the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, marking a significant policy shift in China's economic strategy [4][10] Group 2 - Transshipment trade refers to products that are primarily manufactured in China but undergo minimal processing before being sold to third countries, highlighting the vulnerability of such trade practices [5] - Many of China's exported products, such as steel and solar panels, are characterized by overcapacity, which has led to increased scrutiny and restrictions from other countries [6][7][9] - The article suggests that industries heavily reliant on transshipment trade and exhibiting overcapacity are likely to face significant challenges in both domestic and international markets [9][10] Group 3 - Large enterprises may adapt by committing to production cuts, while smaller firms may struggle to survive the transition due to limited capacity and market adjustments [10] - Companies that cannot transform their operations or lack the capability to expand internationally are at risk of being eliminated from the market [10][12] - The restructuring of China's supply chain on a global scale is seen as an inevitable trend, with a shift from low-end to high-end production being a natural progression in economic development [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies for corn, hog, and egg futures in the semi - annual report and regular reports have been verified by the market. For corn, the short - term price is under pressure, the medium - term new - season contract may first decline and then rise; for hogs, the short - term price may be strong, the medium - term supply increase makes continuous price rise difficult, and the long - term supply pressure may weaken if the policy is implemented; for eggs, the short - term price faces correction pressure, the medium - term may have a rebound, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge [8][15][57][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Period Review - In July, corn futures broke through and declined, hog futures rose first and then fell, and egg futures moved down. The strategies in the semi - annual report and regular reports were verified by the market. For example, for corn, the suggestion of taking profit on long positions and short - selling was verified; for hogs, the suggestion of paying attention to selling hedging opportunities was verified; for eggs, the suggestion of paying attention to high - short opportunities was verified [7][8]. - Corn 2509 contract had a monthly decline of 3.78%, closing at 2288 yuan/ton; hog 2509 contract had a monthly increase of 1.48%, closing at 14075 yuan/ton; egg 2506 contract had a monthly decline of 4.53%, closing at 3522 yuan/500 kilograms [11]. 2. Corn Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while the supply pressure of US corn still exists. In China, in the long - term, there is a corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. In the medium - term, the focus is on new - season yield, production, and planting cost. In the short - term, continuous import corn auctions and the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong put pressure on the upward space of the spot price [13]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the hog production capacity has increased, and the supply in the second half of the year is still rising. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - poultry is high, and feed consumption is rigid. Deep - processing consumption is stable and slightly increasing, providing rigid support for corn prices [13]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong makes the spot price weak. In the medium - term, the new - season corn trading drivers are strengthening, and the decline in new - season planting cost puts pressure on the far - month contract expectations. In the long - term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be focused on [14]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the weakness continues to test the lower support. In the medium - term, the new - season contract may first decline and then rise. The 09 contract may continue to fluctuate, with the medium - term support at 2250; the 11 contract is the weakest and short - selling opportunities can be considered, with the medium - term support at 2180 - 2200; the 01 contract can consider low - buying opportunities, with the medium - term support at 2150 - 2200 [15]. 3. Hog Market Analysis Macro and Industry Logic - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices and industrial policy guidance [53]. - **Industry Logic**: Under the background of normalized epidemics after African Swine Fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant short - term fluctuations in hog prices. The large - scale concentration process of the breeding end is not over, and the production capacity of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year [53]. "Anti - involution" Policy - Driven Futures Logic - The second quarter of 2026 may be the watershed of hog supply. The sow reduction policy only affects the supply after May 2026. The 2605 contract is the turning point. Before 2605, the supply is abundant, and after 2605, the supply may decrease if the sow number decreases [54]. - Low raw material costs may limit the premium of far - month contracts. In 2026, the full cost of leading breeding enterprises may be 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and the hog price may fluctuate between 13 - 15 yuan/kg [56]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the reduction in hog slaughter at the end and beginning of the month may support the price to stop falling and stabilize. In the medium - term, the supply increase in the second half of the year makes continuous price rise difficult. In the long - term, if the policy is implemented, the supply pressure after the second quarter of next year may weaken, driving up the valuation of next - year's second - half contracts [57]. 4. Egg Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and new production capacity is still being put into operation. Seasonal peak consumption may support the price to rise periodically. The key is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [82]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the egg price has confirmed the bottom but faces correction pressure due to rising inventory. In the medium - term, concentrated elimination and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a price rebound, but the rebound height depends on the chicken culling rhythm. In the long - term, if the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [83]. Trading Strategy - The short - selling strategies in the first half of the year have been verified. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions. The 2509 contract should pay attention to the support at 3400 - 3450, and the 2510 contract at 3250 - 3280 [83].