Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collaboration between Guojin Securities and China Merchants Bank to enhance financial institutions' ability to serve the real economy through a specialized exchange meeting [1][3] - Guojin Securities' senior fixed income analyst, Mao Qingqiu, presented the company's development history and research layout, emphasizing past cooperation cases with China Merchants Bank [3] - The meeting underscored the complementary strengths of both parties in areas such as bond underwriting, asset securitization, and debt capital markets, indicating a strategic partnership [3] Group 2 - Guojin Securities' Guangdong regional manager, Sun Yuanzha, and senior investment banking manager, Wu Shu, detailed the business development and strategic layout of investment banking in the Guangdong region [3] - The exchange is seen as a significant step in deepening the strategic cooperation between Guojin Securities and China Merchants Bank, with a focus on fixed income research, bond issuance, and investment services [3] - Both parties agreed to establish a regular communication mechanism to enhance collaboration through research empowerment, channel co-construction, and product innovation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The subsequent policy direction is expected to further support the economy, and the bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase [11][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Political Bureau's statement on the economy is positive, with GDP growing by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 respectively, exceeding the annual target of around 5%. However, the economy still faces structural issues, and policies will further support the economy to prevent systemic risks [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy continues to be proactive and may increase efforts at appropriate times. The issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year was rapid, and if the net financing rhythm from January to May is maintained, the annual issuance limit may be reached in August [2][12]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The meeting adheres to a "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower the comprehensive social financing cost. Bank deposit rates may be further reduced in the second half of the year [3][13]. 3.4 Industry Clearance - The policy will continue to standardize market competition, specifically targeting over - capacity in key industries and regulating local government investment promotion behaviors [4][14]. 3.5 Consumption and Investment - Consumption policies will support both commodity and service consumption and expand the scope of service consumption support. The "Two - Major" construction will stimulate private investment, as the previous intensive issuance of government bonds did not lead to a rapid increase in infrastructure investment [5][15][17]. 3.6 Real Estate - Real estate policies will focus on stabilizing the market rather than stimulating it. "Urban renewal" may be an important measure to increase potential demand [6][18]. 3.7 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase. With continuous liquidity and stable market expectations, 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds are expected to return to their pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [7][19].

Group 1 - The convertible bond market continues to see rising valuations, with prices reaching new highs, supported by strong demand in the fixed income market and low positions in convertible bonds [5][8][19] - The absolute price median of convertible bonds has reached 128 yuan, indicating a significant increase in valuation levels [8][19] - The market sentiment is bolstered by various events, including the commencement of construction on the Yashan Hydropower Station and the AI conference, which have strengthened bullish expectations [8][11] Group 2 - From July 21 to July 25, the equity market experienced a continuous upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.67% [11] - The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [11] - The trading volume of convertible bonds reached 80.674 billion yuan, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 2.14% [19][29] Group 3 - The report suggests that the systemic risk for convertible bonds remains low, with a strong expectation for performance until September [5][8] - The report recommends focusing on low-priced and equity-oriented individual bonds, as the difficulty in selecting bonds increases under the current price structure [5][19] - The report highlights that high-priced and mid-high rated convertible bonds performed well, while AAA-rated and large-cap bonds showed relative weakness [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the bond market may be nearing its end in the short term. The central bank's supportive attitude remains beneficial to the bond market. In the long term, the continuous transformation of pricing logic and macro - narrative requires further deepening of supply - side policies and marginal changes in demand to clarify market risk preferences and the direction of the bond market [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock and Commodity Rise, Tightening of Funds, Bear - Steep Curve - From July 21 - 25, the bond market continued its head - wind situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment supported the strength of the equity and commodity markets, diverting funds from the bond market. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yajiang investment strengthened the broad - credit expectation, suppressing the long - end performance. In the second half of the week, the unexpected tightening of the funds led to partial redemptions and bond - selling by funds and wealth management products, causing concerns about "negative feedback." However, on Friday, with the central bank's timely support, the bond market sentiment improved [1][7]. - On a daily basis, the bond market was weak throughout the week. By July 25, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 3.5, 7.9, 6.7, and 8.4 BP respectively compared to July 18, with a steeper bear - steep curve [7]. 2. Roller - Coaster of Funds and Timely Support from the Central Bank - This week, the funds situation fluctuated, tightening in the second half. The large liquidity demand (such as MLF redemption, large - scale reverse - repurchase maturity, over - trillion - yuan certificate - of - deposit maturity, and treasury bond issuance) and the central bank's net redemption in the first half of the week increased the funds demand. The overnight funds rate rose to a relatively high level since June, and the secondary prices of certificates of deposit increased slightly in the second half of the week [2][10][12]. - On July 25, the central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase injection supported the cross - month liquidity. The weekly average of funds rates fluctuated with a relatively stable mean. The funds stratification remained at a low level, with mixed weekly average changes. The secondary yields of certificates of deposit increased across the board [12]. 3. Are the "Three Concerns" Temporarily Resolved? 3.1. From Stock - Bond to Commodity - Bond: Is the Market on "Pause"? - The recent rise in the market is mainly based on policy expectations. This week, the "commodity - bond" linkage was strengthened, with the commodity futures market rising due to infrastructure expectations and supply - side contraction expectations. However, the callback of "double - coke" and other varieties at the end of the week indicates that policy pricing may be nearing its end. The sustainability of the "commodity - bond" linkage depends on policy implementation and improvement in physical supply - demand [20][23]. - Whether policies can improve the fundamentals will be a key factor affecting the direction of risk assets. Additional policies may support the performance of risk assets [23]. 3.2. Liquidity: "Tightness" and "Stability" before Crossing the Month - The unexpected tightening of funds may be due to the central bank's net redemption in the first half of the week, the diversion of bond - market funds by the rise of the stock and commodity markets, and the increased redemption pressure in the bond market [3][24]. - With the central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase injection on Friday and the approaching Politburo meeting, the central bank is likely to maintain neutral operations, and the cross - month funds may be stable but not overly loose [24]. 3.3. Institutional Behavior: Redemption Pressure Temporarily Eased - Recently, the redemption pressure has increased due to the large fluctuations in fund net values since July, the inflow of funds into the equity and commodity markets, and the deepening of the adjustment in the bond market [25]. - However, the possibility of the bond - market redemption evolving into a "negative feedback" is low. The increase in redemption pressure is mainly reflected in the significant increase in fund selling, while the scale and yield of wealth management products remain relatively stable. With the central bank's support on Friday, the bond market showed signs of stabilization [26]. 4. Future Focus of the Bond Market - Monetary policy: The central bank will maintain a supportive attitude, and there is no need to worry too much about liquidity. In the short term, the urgency for interest - rate cuts is reduced, and the downward space for the short - end is limited if the central bank's injection remains moderate [36]. - Fundamental aspects: The upward trend needs to be continuously consolidated. In the short term, focus on whether the linkage effect of the stock, bond, and commodity markets weakens, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [36]. - Pay attention to the policy signals from the July Politburo meeting, which is important for guiding the macro - policy adjustment [36]. 5. Next Week's Key Data to Watch - Next week, important data include Germany's and the EU's Q2 GDP, the US's July ADP employment, Q2 GDP, PCE price index, federal funds target rate, and China's July official manufacturing PMI, among others [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including price changes of various bonds, new issue mandates, and macro - news. It also analyzes the proposed bond issuance of China Mengniu Dairy [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Chinese IGs like BABA/JD/SINOPE 48 - 57s were 0.5 - 1.9pts higher (1 - 15bps tighter). HSBC/STANLN Float 30 - 31s in financials closed 2 - 3bps tighter. SHIKON/NSINTW/CATLIF 33 - 35s in insurance widened 1 - 5bps. S&P assigned Fubon Life A - rating with stable outlook. NIPLIF/MYLIFE 55s and FUKOKU Perp were up 0.1pt. SOCGEN 6.75/LLOYDS 6.413 Perps in AT1s were 0.3 - 0.6pt lower, while INTNED 3.875/HSBC 7.05 Perp were up 0.1 - 0.2pt. BNKEA/NANYAN 34s in HK were unchanged to 2bps wider. HYSAN 7.2 Perp was up 0.5pt, NWDEVL Perps were 0.2 - 0.7pt lower. GRNCH 28/CHIOLI 42 - 43s in Chinese properties were 0.4 - 0.6pt higher, ROADKG 28 - 30s/Perps were unchanged to 0.7pt lower. WESCHI 26/HONGQI 28 were 0.7 - 1.0pt higher. VEDLN 28 - 33s in SE Asia were up 0.2 - 0.5pt, and MONMIN 30 was up 0.8pt [1]. - In CNH space, CHMEDA announced new issue mandates for 5yr and 10yr CNH bonds. Higher - yielding CNH LGFVs like LYGYIH 7.5 27s/SDGAOC 6.9 27s were sought after, and onshore AAA - guaranteed CNH LGFVs like QINLID 5.9 28s/HSIVEH 6.5 28s continued to compress. HAOHUA 28 - 30s tightened 1 - 2bps, MEITUA 30 widened 3bps, DAESEC 27 - 29s widened 1 - 2bps, and LASUDE 26 was up 0.5pt [2][3]. - LIFUNG announced a new issue mandate for a 3.5yr USD bond, and launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55. Pricing of new bonds is expected on 28 Jul'25, and the tender - offer expiration date is on 31 Jul'25. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was unchanged [3]. - In USD LGFVs, CPDEV 28 was up 0.1pt. Higher - yielding USD names like HBTUID 7.5 26s/XHCTID 7 27s/FZSZJJ 7 28s tightened around 10bps. In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt, SPICPD Perp was down 0.1pt [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JD 4 1/8 01/14/50 | 79.7 | 1.9 | ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 | 27.5 | - 0.7 | | TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 | 71.0 | 1.2 | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 35.0 | - 0.7 | | WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 | 90.4 | 1.0 | SOCGEN 6 3/4 PERP | 98.6 | - 0.6 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 96.7 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 28.3 | - 0.6 | | HONGQI 7.05 01/10/28 | 102.8 | 0.7 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 27.5 | - 0.5 | [5] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P was up 0.06%, Dow was up 0.40%, and Nasdaq was down 0.39%. Trump reached a deal with Japan to set the tariff rate at 15%. US Treasury Secretary will meet China next week to discuss an extension of the 12 Aug'25 tariff deadline on Chinese imports. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.83%/3.88%/4.35%/4.90% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - China Mengniu Dairy proposes to issue 5yr and 10yr CNH senior bonds (S&P: BBB+). Considering peers' bonds and adjusting for new - issue premium and credit - rating differential, the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 30 is estimated to be 2.25% vs. IPT of 2.55%, and the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 35 is estimated to be 2.55% vs. IPT of 2.85%. Proceeds will be used for debt refinancing [8]. Mengniu Analysis - Mengniu is a leading Chinese dairy company, ranked in the top 10 globally. It has end - to - end capabilities across the value chain and a traceable digital platform. In FY24, it generated RMB88.7bn revenue, with liquid milk accounting for 82.4%. Gross profit margin rose to 39.6% in FY24, and operating margin improved to 8.2% [11]. - As of Dec'24, Mengniu had a cash balance of RMB32.9bn, total debt of RMB34.6bn (mainly bank loans), and cRMB86bn available credit lines with RMB66.4bn undrawn. Total debt/EBITDA and net debt/EBITDA were 8.0x and 0.4x, and interest - coverage ratio was 3.0x. It has some outstanding bonds, and its liquidity profile is considered manageable [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today [13]. - Pipeline issues include Guotai Junan International Holdings (USD, 3yr, SOFR + 115, -/BBB+/-) and Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group (USD, 3yr, 6.5%, unrated) [14]. News and Market Color - There were 139 credit bonds issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB205bn. Month - to - date, 1,473 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB1,582bn, a 19.7% yoy increase. China property loans reached a two - year high. Del Monte seeks approval to sell business by end - September with a USD575mn stalking - horse bid. Foshan R&F Properties auctions 387 units. JD and Meituan invest in humanoid robot startups. Guangzhou Kaisa Center will be auctioned. Fitch assigned BB rating to Li & Fung with stable outlook. Road King requests bond - holders to disclose identities and holdings by 1 Aug'25 4pm CET [16].

Core Insights - The report discusses the continuous weakness in medium and short-term interest rate bonds since the beginning of the year, attributing this to a correction from the relatively strong performance observed last year [2] - The strong performance of medium and short-term bonds last year was primarily due to the central bank's warnings regarding long-term interest rate risks and the purchase of government bonds [2] - The report suggests that medium and short-term bonds may not continue to underperform and could follow market trends, especially if the central bank engages in government bond transactions [2] Industry Performance - The report highlights the top-performing industries over different time frames, with the communication sector showing a 49.0% increase over the past year, followed by comprehensive industries at 70.5% [1] - Conversely, the report notes the underperforming sectors, such as beauty care and coal, which have shown negative returns of -13.2% and -2.4% respectively over the past year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Lu Weiming as the new chairman of Huatai Fund Management marks a significant leadership change, following the tenure of Li Wen, who oversaw substantial growth in the company's assets under management [5][6]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Lu Weiming will assume the role of chairman on July 14, 2025, succeeding Li Wen, who is stepping down due to a board restructuring [3][4]. - Lu Weiming has extensive experience in the financial sector, having worked at Dongfang Securities since 1998, where he held various senior positions, including president and executive director [6][8]. - Li Wen's decade-long leadership saw the company's assets grow from approximately 217 billion to 1.2 trillion, a 4.6-fold increase [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - Under Li Wen's leadership, Huatai Fund Management's scale increased significantly, with the company ranking second in public fund size in 2020 before falling to tenth due to market adjustments [8][9]. - The company currently manages over 1.2 trillion in assets, with approximately 500 billion in non-monetary management, and ranks tenth in the industry [6][9]. - In 2024, Huatai Fund Management achieved a net profit of 1.547 billion, with a dividend payout of 230 million to Dongfang Securities, reflecting a dividend rate of 42.3% [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Lu Weiming's background in fixed income and derivatives may indicate a strategic shift towards a more balanced business model, complementing the company's historical focus on equity investments [6][10]. - The company has seen recent success with its Hong Kong-related products, with significant returns from various ETFs, suggesting potential growth areas amid challenges in equity markets [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows weak supply and demand, and more aggressive easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year. The strength of policy implementation will significantly affect the real - estate market and investment. Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts strongly. There are fluctuations in consumption, investment, trade, and prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds is relatively fast. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New home sales declined both month - on - month and year - on - year, with significant drops in first - and second - tier cities. The real - estate market's supply and demand are weak, and more aggressive easing policies are needed to release the demand for improved housing. If policy strength exceeds expectations, the decline in real - estate sales and investment may slow down; otherwise, the market may remain at a low level. Second - hand home sales also decreased month - on - month. Automobile consumption declined marginally, while the national migration scale index increased, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased. [11][41] 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan decreased, while the PTA operating rate increased. In the downstream sectors, the operating rates of automobile all - steel and semi - steel tires improved, and the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The infrastructure construction start - up showed marginal improvement. [48] 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar decreased, but its price increased. The price of cement decreased, and the cement shipment rate and inventory ratio also declined. [64] 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, port container throughput decreased, and the overall container shipping price declined, with the European route rising and the US West and East routes falling. The BDI index increased. In terms of imports, the container shipping price continued to decline. [75] 3.5 Prices - Agricultural product prices showed a marginal improvement, with pork and vegetable prices rising and egg and fruit prices falling. International crude oil prices generally increased, while the price of gold slightly declined. [86][96] 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (July 14 - 18), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 500.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 10.6 billion yuan. As of July 11, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds exceeded 90%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds was 58.3% and 50.6% respectively. [106][109][112] 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 8th consecutive month in June. The State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3500 points. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. The Ministry of Finance adjusted the assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies. Some cities adjusted housing - related policies, including housing provident fund policies and housing consumption supply optimization. [118][119][120][121][122][123]

Group 1 - The individual has a background in mechanical engineering and transitioned into a quantitative analyst role within a major insurance company's investment arm [1] - The investment arm has consistently outperformed industry averages and ranks among the top global asset managers in fixed income markets [1] - There is a particular interest in fixed-income and technology equities [1]

贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...