本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 10月15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年前11个月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元， 同比下降2.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降5.3%。 浙商证券首席分析师李超对《华夏时报》记者表示，投资当月同比已连续6个月转负，低于市场预期。 当前，固定资产投资连续下行的状态为多年来罕见。对此，刚刚落幕的中央经济工作会议明确，要"推 动投资止跌回稳"；全国发展和改革工作会议也要求，多措并举促进投资止跌回稳，这项工作仅次于首 位的"十五五"规划编制。 "往后看，中央经济工作会议点名推动投资止跌回升，因此对2026年投资端增速不宜过分低估。我们预 测，2026年一季度固投同比增速或达2.8%，预计广义基建和制造业投资同比增速均有望超过5.0%，带 动投资端实现开门红。"李超表示。 市场人士表示，接下来要关注财政方面增量政策的可能性，以及政策性金融工具对实物工作量的拉动。 下降趋势年内或仍持续 11月当月，狭义基建投资同比降幅继续扩大0.8个百分点至-9.7%，广义基建投资同比降幅收敛0.2个百分 点至-11.9 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in consumer demand, particularly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies, indicating that sustained policy support is necessary to boost consumer spending [3] - Industrial value-added growth remains resilient at 6.0% year-on-year, although there is a clear divide between traditional industries, such as real estate, which are contracting, and high-tech industries that are supporting growth [3][4] - Inflation is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first positive change in food prices this year [3][5] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a further decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, driven by downturns in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [3][7] - The report notes that the economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending both declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with cumulative sales area down 11.1% year-on-year, indicating a persistent contraction since the second quarter of this year [3][10]

Group 1: Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in Sichuan Province increased by 6.8% year-on-year from January to November [1] - Among 41 major industries, 33 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (18.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (13.7%), and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (12.7%) [1] - The natural gas production in Sichuan rose by 11.5%, while the output of lithium-ion batteries surged by 45.9% and industrial robots increased by 42.1% [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the primary industry grew by 10.8%, while the secondary industry saw a 7.7% increase, with industrial investment specifically rising by 8.0% [1] Group 3: Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 26,395.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales in urban areas amounted to 21,378.2 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, while rural retail sales increased by 6.0% to 5,017.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The catering revenue was 3,614.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and retail sales through the internet by large enterprises grew by 21.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fixed asset investment in China (excluding rural households) for January to November 2025 is 444,035 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [1][4]. Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry reached 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3][4]. - The secondary industry saw an investment of 162,243 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% year-on-year, with industrial investment specifically increasing by 4.0% [3][4]. - The tertiary industry experienced a decline in investment to 273,022 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year [3][4]. Secondary Industry Breakdown - Mining investment grew by 4.0%, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [3][4]. - Notable growth was observed in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry, which saw a 10.7% increase [3][4]. Tertiary Industry Breakdown - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% [3][4]. - Specific sectors such as pipeline transportation and water transportation saw increases of 16.8% and 8.9%, respectively [3][4]. Regional Investment Analysis - Eastern regions experienced a significant decline in investment by 6.6%, while central and western regions saw decreases of 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively [3][4]. - The northeastern region faced the largest drop at 14.0% [3][4]. Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 2.2% [3][4]. - Foreign enterprises experienced a substantial decline in investment by 14.1% [3][4].

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Overview - In November 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.7% and rural areas by 0.4% [3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.8% [3] - The average CPI from January to November remained flat compared to the previous year [3] Price Changes in November - Year-on-year, food, tobacco, and alcohol prices increased by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI [4] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 14.5%, impacting the CPI by about 0.31 percentage points [4] - Pork prices fell by 15.0%, leading to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.21 percentage points [4] Month-on-Month Price Changes - In November, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with urban areas also declining by 0.1% [3] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by 0.2% [3] - Among various categories, other goods and services prices rose by 14.2%, while transportation and communication prices fell by 2.3% [4][5] Industrial Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [7] - The mining sector saw a 6.3% increase, while manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply grew by 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively [7] - Among 41 major industries, 30 reported year-on-year growth in added value [7] Retail Sales Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, marking a 1.3% year-on-year increase [10] - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5% [10] - Online retail sales from January to November amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.1% year-on-year increase [12] Fixed Asset Investment Trends - From January to November 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 444,035 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year [15] - The investment in the primary industry rose by 2.7%, while the secondary industry saw a 3.9% increase [15] - Infrastructure investment in the tertiary sector declined by 1.1% [15]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3074 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 14 元/吨，涨幅为 0.46%，持仓增加 2.06 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3190 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.12 万吨。 | | | | 据国家统计局数据，1-11 月固定资产投资增速同比下降 2.6%，其中基础设施投资同比下降 1.1%，制造业 | | | | 投资增长 1.9%，房地产开发投资下降 15.9%。1-11 月，中国粗钢产量 89167 万吨，同比下降 4.0%；生铁 | | | | 产量 77405 万吨，同比下降 2.3%；钢材产量 133277 万吨，同比增长 4.0%。总体看 11 投资数据继续走弱， | | | | 粗钢及生铁产量处于低位，钢材市场处于供需双弱局面。预计短期 ...

北京商报讯（记者 和岳）12月16日，北京市统计局官网发布前11月北京经济运行情况，1-11月，全市 固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长5.8%，其中，反映企业扩大生产能力的设备购置投资增长67.6%， 占全市固定资产投资的比重为30.9%；高技术产业投资增长43.2%，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务 业，科学研究和技术服务业是主要带动力量。分领域看，基础设施投资下降2.3%；制造业投资下降 1.5%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业重点项目进入收尾阶段；房地产开发投资下降15.6%。分产 业看，第一产业投资增长15.1%，第二产业投资增长3.5%，第三产业投资增长6.1%，其中，批发和零售 业、住宿和餐饮业分别增长2.0倍和1.3倍，部分商圈及批发市场加快升级改造；信息传输、软件和信息 技术服务业增长90.5%；践行"投资于人"，教育、卫生和社会工作、文化体育和娱乐业等社会领域投资 增长30.5%。 ...

11月主要经济指标出炉，供需两端延续放缓态势。分析人士表示，今年经济社会发展目标任务即将顺利完成，明年GDP增速目标或仍在5%左右。着眼于实 现明年经济"开门红"，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望前置发力。 国家统计局周一发布的数据显示，1-11月，固定资产投资（不含农户）同比下降2.6%，降幅比前10个月扩大0.9个百分点，创2020年7月以来新低。11月，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，增速比上月略降0.1个百分点，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，增速比上月放缓1.6个百分点。 总体来看，11月中国经济呈现生产强于需求、外需好于内需的特征。 生产方面，工业增加值保持平稳较快增长，同比增速略有放缓，但环比增速加快0.27个百分点。 智通财经记者 | 张一诺 数据来源：国家统计局 制图：智通财经 "受假期扰动因素消退和外需阶段性回升影响，工业生产环比虽有所加快，但受累于内需修复偏慢、制造业动能不足、公用事业增速回落，工业增加值同比 走弱。"中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬在发给智通财经的评论中称。 细分数据来看，新质生产力和出口是工业生产的两大动力来源。其中，11月，高技术工业生产同比增速较上月加 ...

如果能意识到固投增速的变化是经济结构调整的体现，就不要 期待政策会通过大水漫灌的方式拉动固投增速反弹。中央经济 工作会议的整体政策基调是"托而不举"，兼顾跨周期，推动投 资止跌回稳的表述是要求增速统计由负转正，并未设定具体的 增速底线。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 12月15日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1—11月，全国固定资产投资（下称"固投"）同比下降 2.6%；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固投同比增长0.8%。 如图一红色曲线所示，2005—2011年，固投增速均在20%以上，此后十余年固投增速呈现快速 下滑的态势。仅看2025年，逐月累计的固投增速也呈现不断下降的趋势。按照此趋势，2025年固 投增速预计将为负值，这也是过去二十年固投首次出现同比负增长的情况。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示："据我们测算，今年7—11月投资的当月同比已连续6个 月转负，当前固投运行状态在历史上较为罕见。" 制图：田进 12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规 模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作 用，有效激发民间投资活力 ...

12月15日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1—11月，全国固定资产投资（下称"固投"）同比下降2.6%； 扣除房地产开发投资，全国固投同比增长0.8%。 如图一红色曲线所示，2005—2011年，固投增速均在20%以上，此后十余年固投增速呈现快速下滑的态 势。仅看2025年，逐月累计的固投增速也呈现不断下降的趋势。按照此趋势，2025年固投增速预计将为 负值，这也是过去二十年固投首次出现同比负增长的情况。 浙商证券（601878）宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示："据我们测算，今年7—11月投资的当月同比已连续 6个月转负，当前固投运行状态在历史上较为罕见。" 制图：田进 12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优 化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民 间投资活力。 远东资信研究院副院长张林表示，如果能意识到固投增速的变化是经济结构调整的体现，就不要期待政 策会通过大水漫灌的方式拉动固投增速反弹。中央经济工作会议的整体政策基调是"托而不举"，兼顾跨 周期，推动投资止跌回稳的表述是要求增速统计由负转正，并未设定 ...