国债买卖

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2025年5月9日利率债观察:对于重启国债买卖的思考
EBSCN· 2025-05-09 14:45
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the resumption of Treasury bond trading by the central bank. It points out that the release of the "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has heightened market expectations. The central bank's Treasury bond trading aims at base - money injection and liquidity management, but it may have a side - effect on bond yields. To minimize this side - effect, optimization can be considered in terms of timing, issuance methods, and mechanism arrangements [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Timing - Buying should be done when the supply (or supply expectation) of the bond market significantly increases and the market fears oversupply. At this time, the market is less sensitive to the central bank's buying operations. However, if the market is in a long - term "bull market thinking", the central bank's operations may become passive. Also, the disclosure of operation information and market expectations can affect the bond market [2]. 2. Issuance Methods - Treasury bonds can be issued to individual members of the Treasury bond underwriting syndicate on a targeted basis and then transferred to the central bank. This method was used in 2007 when 1.35 trillion yuan of the over 1.5 trillion yuan of special Treasury bonds were issued in this way. It won't disrupt the bond market's supply - demand balance or trigger unreasonable expectations of a rapid decline in yields [2]. 3. Mechanism Arrangements - The timing, scale, and maturity of Treasury bond issuance should be jointly determined by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. This arrangement can maintain the stable development of the bond market and control the issuance cost of government bonds [3].