Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding throughout the day, with all three major indices rising. The outlook for relevant themes remains optimistic in the long - term, but there are uncertainties from the US's debt pressure and trade policies. Short - term liquidity may be affected, and it is expected that volatility will increase this week, suggesting attention to option double - buying or ratio spread strategies [1]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate. Although recent factors have led to a short - term strengthening of bonds, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: The market recovered after hitting bottom, with about 3000 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, and the trading volume on this day was 1.66 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has attracted high market attention. The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and technology remains unchanged, but there are uncertainties from the US and potential impacts on short - term liquidity. The futures market has a large discount, and option implied volatility is low. Volatility is expected to increase this week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed with declines in various contracts. The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery trend. Although there was a short - term strengthening due to factors such as the intensification of the Sino - US tariff war, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH rose 18.2 points (0.61%), IF rose 17.4 points (0.38%), IC rose 28.4 points (0.41%), and IM rose 15.8 points (0.22%) [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 16.8 points (0.56%), the CSI 300 rose 13.8 points (0.30%), the CSI 500 rose 14.5 points (0.20%), and the CSI 1000 fell 4.1 points (- 0.06%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, TS fell 0.022 points (- 0.02%), TF fell 0.09 points (- 0.09%), T fell 0.11 points (- 0.10%), and TL fell 0.40 points (- 0.35%) [3]. Market News - As of October 22, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for the national automobile trade - in program exceeded 10 million, including over 3.4 million for vehicle scrapping and replacement and over 6.6 million for replacement [4]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing scientific planning, focusing on enhancing core functions and competitiveness, and promoting layout optimization and structural adjustment [4]. - From October 24 to 27, 2025, Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The document provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts from January 2024 to July 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: The document presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies, with data spanning from January 2023 to July 2025 [24][25][26][28][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "relatively strong", and for treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market was volatile and differentiated yesterday, with the technology sector falling again. The Wind All A index dropped 0.44%, and the trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index declined 1.09%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.59% and the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%. The resurgence of Sino-US trade disputes may impact the index in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. Some domestic securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratio of some stocks from 60% to 0, which may affect the valuation of technology stocks if leveraged funds leave in the short term. However, the long-term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged. The short-term decline in IV may be a buying opportunity, and small positions can be used to layout out-of-the-money call options for November. Domestically, the Politburo meeting in September announced that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing on October 20, and the market has high expectations for the meeting content [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract up 0.42%, the 10-year main contract up 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01%. The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. In the inter-bank market, the weighted average rate of DR001 rose 0.01bp to 1.3139%, and DR007 rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%. In the exchange repurchase market, the weighted average rate of GC001 fell 13.98bp to 1.3906%, and GC007 fell 1.29bp to 1.4754%. With the central bank's support, the liquidity situation has marginally eased. The escalation of the Sino-US tariff war has increased risk aversion, and treasury bonds are expected to perform strongly next week. However, the central bank did not restart treasury bond trading in September, and the expectation of monetary policy interest rate cuts has cooled, along with the increase in quasi-fiscal tools, so treasury bonds lack the impetus for significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the technology sector weakening. Sino-US trade disputes and the adjustment of margin conversion ratios may impact the market in the short term, but long-term policy expectations remain positive. Small positions can be used to buy out-of-the-money call options for November [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures had different performances, and the central bank's operations led to a marginal easing of liquidity. The escalation of the tariff war increased risk aversion, but treasury bonds lack the momentum for significant upward movement [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.72%, IF increased 0.30%, IC dropped 1.10%, and IM declined 0.96% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 index declined 1.09% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.02%, TF dropped 0.02%, T rose 0.03%, and TL increased 0.33% [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds increased slightly, while the 30-year treasury bond yield decreased [3] 3. Market News - A Federal Reserve governor suggested a 50-basis-point interest rate cut, but the actual cut is expected to be 25 basis points. Tariffs may cause inflation, but it has not shown up yet. The expected economic growth rate in 2025 is about 2% [4][5][6] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [7][8][9][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the middle rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency exchange rates [22][23][24][26][28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 600 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continued net injection of liquidity for the seventh consecutive month, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations and Liquidity - The PBOC will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation on September 25, 2025, with a one-year term, using a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method [1]. - In September, 300 billion MLF is maturing, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion MLF, maintaining a high level of net liquidity injection totaling 600 billion, consistent with the previous month [1][2]. - The continuous net injection of medium-term liquidity reflects the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, supporting government bond issuance and meeting credit demand from enterprises and households [1][2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Expectations - Recent market conditions, including rising mid-to-long-term interest rates and tightening liquidity, prompted the PBOC to increase fund injections through MLF to stabilize market expectations [2]. - The PBOC's ongoing net liquidity injection signals a supportive monetary policy stance, especially in light of declining macroeconomic indicators due to various factors [2]. - Looking ahead, there is an expectation for further monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter, including potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and the resumption of government bond trading, to ensure stable liquidity in the market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with government bond futures declining and interbank bond yields rising, indicating tightening liquidity as the month-end approaches [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.41% to 114.070, marking a new closing low since March 19 [2]. - Interbank bond yields mostly increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising 1.3 basis points to 2.112% and the 10-year government bond yield up 1.4 basis points to 1.812% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down 4.06 basis points to 4.106% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also decreased, while in the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 3.561% [3]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance's weighted average bid yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds were 1.2473% and 1.3405%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.84 and 2.31 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 401.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates increased, with the overnight rate rising 2.1 basis points to 1.434% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the urgency for the central bank to restart government bond trading is not strong in the short term, but the increased bond purchases by state-owned banks reflect a relatively loose liquidity environment [6]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) observed that while the bond market is experiencing volatility, credit bonds in the short to medium term are performing relatively well [7].

Group 1: Fixed Income and Monetary Policy - The report discusses the anticipation surrounding the resumption of government bond trading, highlighting a shift from "buying long" to "buying short" under supportive monetary policy, with a focus on liquidity management [2][4][27] - It is expected that if interest rate cuts occur, the impact on the bond market will depend on the magnitude of the cuts, with a likely continuation of a 10 basis point reduction seen in the first half of the year [2][28][29] - The report emphasizes that regardless of whether bond trading resumes, liquidity concerns are manageable due to the central bank's diverse monetary policy tools [27][28][29] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning towards global commercialization, with a strong pipeline of quality projects expected to drive growth [6][9] - The report notes that the early drug development process in China is significantly faster than the global average, saving 30%-50% of time [9] - Future prospects for the industry are optimistic, with increased innovation expected to unlock greater commercial value [9] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - The dairy sector is experiencing a strong supply contraction, with expectations that the phase of destocking is nearing its end [10] - The meat cattle sector is entering a super cycle, with domestic supply tightening due to reduced imports and a long replenishment cycle [10] - The report suggests that the interconnection between dairy and meat cattle sectors will enhance profitability for related enterprises [10] Group 4: Technology Sector - The report highlights the rapid growth of Meige Intelligent, driven by demand in the smart connected vehicle and edge AI hardware markets, with a 44.50% increase in revenue year-on-year [32] - The company is expanding its applications in various sectors, including drones, AR glasses, and robotics, showcasing its strong capabilities in edge AI [34][35] - Despite a decline in overall gross margin, the company anticipates improvements in profitability in the latter half of the year [33][36] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and new consumption, which are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and improving economic conditions [11] - Specific companies to watch include China Shengmu, Guangming Meat, and Fucheng Co., which are positioned well within the agricultural sector [10]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 刘昱云 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525070010 liuyuyun@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 何楠飞 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525070004 henanfei@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用票息仍占优-信用 策略周报 20250921》 2025-09-22 2 《固定收益：固收点评-债市定价， 谁在主导？》 2025-09-21 3 《固定收益：股债之间-利率专题》 2025-09-21 利率专题 证券研究报告 再论国债买卖与降息 1、国债买卖：悬念等待揭晓 2025 年 09 月 23 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 预期"升温"：（1）9/3，财政部与央行联合工作组召开会议，双方就央行 国债买卖操等议题进行了深入研讨，使得工具重启的预期进一步发酵；（2） 债市调整行情下市场的期待愈发升温，当下不论是长端、超长端的绝对点 位，还是二者相对利 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the increasing expectations for the resumption of government bond trading following the joint meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank in early September, highlighting the need for a stable funding injection for banks [2][3][58] - The resumption of government bond trading is seen as beneficial for enhancing the stability of banks' asset-liability management, especially given the current pressures on deposit duration and interest rate risks [3][58] - The report emphasizes that while there is a necessity for the resumption of government bond trading, it is not deemed extremely urgent at this stage [57] Summary by Sections 1. Background of Government Bond Trading - Government bond trading was officially launched in August 2024 but was suspended in January 2025 due to market conditions [14][30] 2. Operation Methods Before Resumption - The central bank previously employed a "buy and lend" strategy for government bonds, impacting its balance sheet and liquidity management [22][26] 3. Reasons for Suspension Earlier This Year - The central bank suspended government bond purchases to avoid exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and market volatility, as the broad interest rates were declining too rapidly [30][34] 4. Three Conditions for Resumption - The report outlines three main conditions for the resumption of government bond trading, focusing on macro-prudential assessments, interest rate changes, and market supply-demand dynamics [37][41] 5. Bank Perspective on Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading is crucial for banks to manage their asset-liability structures effectively, especially in light of the pressures on deposit durations and the need for stable funding sources [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed a volatile trend last week. The long - term yield fluctuated under the influence of multiple factors and finally returned to around 1.80%. The Fed restarted rate cuts in September, and there is a probability of further cuts in Q4. The domestic 9 - month LPR did not cut rates in September, and the total policy tools may not be introduced in the short term. However, the probability of bond trading and reserve requirement cuts is relatively high [1][3] - The 8 - month economic data released at the beginning of the week was weak, but the bond market's reaction was limited. News of Sino - US economic and trade talks and important articles affected market expectations. The restart of bond trading operations and the Fed's rate cut expectation drove the 10 - year Treasury yield down, while the Fed's statement and the adjustment of the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation mode also influenced the bond market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funding Rates**: DR001 fluctuated between September 15 - 19, closing at 1.46% on September 19. R001 rose and then fell, closing at 1.50%. DR007 and FR007 also showed upward - then - downward trends [8] - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放量 was 1.83 trillion yuan, with a total maturity of 1.26 trillion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 5623 billion yuan [8] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The interest - rate spread between Sino - US bonds inverted, and the inversion amplitude of long - and short - term spreads widened. The term spread of Chinese bonds slightly decreased, while that of US bonds slightly increased. The yield curve of Chinese bonds changed little, and that of US bonds shifted to the right [15][16] 2. High - frequency Real - estate Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: The average daily transaction area was 7.31 million square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was 680 units, showing a low - level volatile trend [24] - **Top Ten Cities**: The transaction data rebounded compared to last week, with an average daily transaction area of about 11.07 million square meters, an increase of 1.43 million square meters per day [25] - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The transaction volume remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 21.38 million square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was about 1914 units [26]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the changes in China's monetary policy framework and its implications for economic growth and liquidity management. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Changes**: Since 2025, the main constraints on monetary policy have shifted from stabilizing the exchange rate to addressing net interest margin pressures and risk prevention. The exchange rate is no longer a significant constraint as of Q2 2025, with the USDCNH and USDCNY reaching a unified rate of 7.10 [2][3][4]. 2. **Need for Rate Cuts**: The necessity for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions is increasing, particularly if Q3 GDP growth falls below 5.0%. Economic data from July and August has consistently underperformed expectations, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments [4][24][26]. 3. **Government Bond Trading Resumption**: The conditions for resuming government bond trading are becoming more favorable. After a pause in Q1 2025, market expectations for a resumption have grown, especially if the Ministry of Finance issues bonds early in Q4 2025, which could alleviate supply pressure [5][26]. 4. **Framework Evolution**: The monetary policy framework has evolved to focus more on price-based controls rather than quantity-based tools. Key indicators now include M2, social financing, and loan growth, reflecting a shift in the central bank's strategy to stabilize economic growth [6][8][27]. 5. **Liquidity Management**: The liquidity management framework has changed significantly, relying on various tools such as overnight and 7-day reverse repos, with government bond trading serving as a supplementary tool when other methods are insufficient [13][14][19]. 6. **Dual Pillar System**: The dual pillar system distinguishes between monetary policy aimed at macroeconomic stability and macro-prudential policy focused on preventing systemic financial risks. This includes measures like the "three red lines" in the real estate sector [10][11][12]. 7. **Interest Rate Corridor Adjustments**: The interest rate corridor mechanism has undergone changes, with the 7-day reverse repo rate becoming the primary policy rate. The new corridor reflects a narrower range of fluctuations compared to previous versions [20][23]. 8. **Future Expectations**: There is a high probability of further rate cuts and RRR reductions in Q4 2025 to support economic growth targets. The resumption of government bond trading is also anticipated as a liquidity management tool rather than a price control measure [26][27]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The central bank's focus on price-based tools indicates a strategic shift in response to changing economic conditions, emphasizing the need for market adaptation to these evolving frameworks [27]. - The potential for hidden interest rate hikes due to increased government bond supply highlights the delicate balance the central bank must maintain in managing liquidity and interest rates [5][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly mentioned in the report regarding the bond market. However, the general tone seems to suggest a cautious view on the bond market, with potential risks and adjustments ahead [27]. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been weakening recently with a divergence in bond varieties. Both bulls and bears in the bond market are currently confused. The report presents multiple reasons for both bullish and bearish outlooks on the bond market and concludes that the risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, with potential for further adjustments within the year [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Reasons - **Bond Supply Mismatch in Q4**: This year, the fiscal bond issuance has been front - loaded, with the remaining quotas for national and local bonds in Q4 at 21.5% and 22.1% respectively, lower than last year's 26.3% and 30.5%. Q4 is also the insurance "opening - up" period, leading to increased allocation demand from insurance companies [7]. - **Favorable Economic Data**: The corporate loans in the social financing data have weakened for two consecutive months, and the economic data in August was generally weak. The production slowed down, with the industrial added - value growth rate in August at 5.2%, down 0.5pct from the previous month. The fixed - asset investment also slowed down. Weak economic data is beneficial for the bond market [8]. - **Monetary Policy and Treasury Bond Transactions**: With a weakening economy, weak social financing and credit, and the Fed's rate cut, there is an increased probability of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in Q4. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation by the central bank implies a potential rate cut. The discussion on government bond issuance management and central bank's treasury bond transactions also provides room for speculation [12]. Bearish Reasons - **Nominal GDP and Re - inflation**: The "anti - involution" policy has a positive impact on inflation. PPI has shown signs of bottoming out. Nominal GDP may rise due to the narrowing of the GDP deflator, which could be unfavorable for bond yields. Expectations of inflation are also increasing [16]. - **Mutual Fund Redemption Chain Reaction**: Due to weakening profitability and the potential redemption fee, mutual bond funds may face scale shrinkage, which could lead to liquidity and valuation spread pressures on certain bond varieties favored by mutual funds [20]. - **Weak Monetary Policy Coordination**: The monetary policy has not adjusted policy rates. To cooperate with the "anti - involution" policy, interest rates may not be further reduced. The desired growth rate of loans may decline, and the current interest rate level may be appropriate [23]. - **Sustained Breakthrough in the Equity Market**: The equity market has shifted from a situation of "no fundamental support" to "having performance support from specific sectors". This may lead to a long - term trend of capital flowing from the bond market to the equity market [24]. Outlook for Monday - Two news events, a news conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" and a positive phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, may boost risk appetite. The bond and equity markets are likely to have a "risk - on" trading pattern. The risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, and there is still room for adjustment within the year [27].