《金价冲破3800美元，还能上车吗？》——降息预期叠加地缘风险，央行"买买买"撑腰，黄金是财富盛宴还是过山车？ 你以为金价已经封顶，结果它又拆了屋顶。纽约黄金期货一口气突破3800美元/盎司，国内金饰价格逼近1100元/克，黄金仿佛在炫耀："我不是在涨，我是在 飞。"这波行情不是孤立事件，而是多重力量叠加：美联储年内仍可能降息1—2次，利率下行对黄金是天生利好；中东局势紧张，避险情绪高涨；全球央行 更是火力全开，中国央行已连续十个月增持，储备突破2300吨，堪称"国家队定心丸。"问题是，接下来是直奔4000美元，还是高位震荡？乐观派押注黄金牛 市刚刚起步，谨慎派提醒冲高回落难以避免。毕竟程序化交易和量化资金的集中入场，往往让行情像坐过山车一样刺激。普通投资者怎么办？稳健才是硬道 理。黄金ETF、纸黄金操作灵活，适合分散配置；实物金条或饰品则更偏长期保值；至于期货期权等高杠杆玩法，不是高手最好敬而远之。年底美联储主席 换届，更可能带来新的宽松信号，黄金长期趋势依旧值得期待。在全球风云变幻中，黄金不是暴富神话，而是乱局里的定海神针。真正的赢家，从来不是追 得最快的人，而是走得最稳的人。（唐加文，笔名金观平；本文成 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong upward trend in crude oil prices due to renewed geopolitical risks, particularly related to ongoing attacks in Ukraine and potential sanctions against Russia [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report presents a short-term and medium-term outlook for crude oil, both indicating a "震荡偏强" (strong oscillation) trend, with a specific focus on the recent geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [5]. Price Movements - On the recent trading day, the domestic crude oil futures contract (2511) saw a slight increase of 1.47%, closing at 482.3 yuan per barrel, suggesting a continuation of the strong oscillation trend in the following days [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that the ongoing military actions in Ukraine against Russian oil facilities and the potential for extended sanctions from the U.S. are key drivers of the current market dynamics, contributing to the upward pressure on crude oil prices [5].

黄金消息面： 从消息面上看，市场押注 10 月美联储再降息概率达 90%，叠加地缘风险持续，美元走弱，避险与宽松 预期共振，推动金价冲高，日内最高触及 3790.89 美元。 从技术面来上看： ❶：日线级别上:布林带开口向上，金价在布林带上轨下方运行，MACD 技术指标金叉运行中，RSI 技 术指标超买状态运行中，警惕金价超买回落需求； ❷：4小时级别上:布林带开口扩张，金价在布林带上轨附近运行；MACD 技术指标金叉运行中，RSI 技 术指标超买状态中，警惕金价超买回落需求； ❸：1小时级别上:布林带开口向上，金价在布林带上轨下方运行中，MACD 技术指标死叉初现运行 中，RSI 指标超买回落状态中，短期金价上涨动能有所减缓，警惕金价回落。 展望黄金后市操作： 下方多单：激进者依托 3600 美元/盎司支撑位，企稳后在 3615-3625 美元/盎司附近参与做多； 上方空单：激进者依托 3800 美元/盎司压制，承压后在 3785-3775 美元/盎司参与做空； 稳妥者依托 4000 美元/盎司压力位，在 3985-3975 美元/盎司再参与做空； 期货沪金、融通金、积存金、黄金T+D买卖建议： 沪金期货： ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: the initiation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, escalating geopolitical risks, and a dual-driven demand from both central banks and private consumers [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve has begun a rate cut cycle, with a 25 basis point cut in September and expectations for two more cuts this year, which diminishes the attractiveness of the dollar and enhances gold's appeal [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have heightened global risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold as a safe haven [3]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, while domestic demand for gold bars and jewelry has surged, defying the typical price-demand relationship [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - Despite the rapid increase in gold prices, long-term investors should remain calm, as the fundamental trend remains intact with ongoing rate cuts and global uncertainties supporting gold's long-term logic [5]. - Short-term caution is advised as some technical indicators are showing overbought conditions, with potential price corrections expected if gold reaches around $3,795 [6]. - For ordinary investors, it is recommended to avoid leverage and focus on actual needs, with gold bars and ETFs being more cost-effective than jewelry, while also considering gold mining stocks for potential gains [7]. Group 3: Conclusion and Investment Approach - The new high in gold prices signals a re-evaluation of global risk by investors, suggesting that long-term investors should not engage in panic buying or selling but rather maintain composure and consider profit-taking or gradual accumulation during price corrections [8].

"我也加仓了黄金ETF，本来有点畏高，但是黄金价格一路猛涨，完全没有回调的迹象，所以我追高了 半仓。"资深投资人林荣表示，其2008年开始职业投资黄金。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 黄金价格涨势如虹。 9月23日，黄金价格继续攀高，亚洲时段（截至北京时间17:00）已经升至3775美元/盎司的历史新高， 今年以来黄金已经30余次刷新历史新高，累计涨幅达到43%，黄金期货更是突破3800美元/盎司，持续 续写最佳成绩。 目前，市场对黄金持有的信心空前高涨，全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR的持仓量已经达到1000.57吨。 水涨船高 黄金的涨幅已经让全球资金沸腾，SPDR最近两个交易日都是大幅加仓，其中9月19日加仓18.9吨，9月 22日加仓6.01吨。 经过一轮猛涨"整顿"，市场基本没有看空黄金的声音。 德意志银行表示，黄金价格再度刷新纪录高位，主要是因为避险情绪。该行分析师亨利·艾伦在一份研 报中表示："投资者一方面看好股市，但同时也担忧存在重大下行风险。黄金价格的驱动因素很多，其 中之一就是它被视为避风港"。 林荣告诉记者，其职业投资黄金接近20年，但是2024年和2025年黄金的走势仍大大超乎预期。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached historical highs, indicating a shift in its market status from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "credit hedge tool" [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In September 2025, spot gold in London surpassed $3,786 per ounce, while New York gold futures climbed to $3,818 per ounce, marking a significant milestone [2] - The total market capitalization of the gold sector reached 5.02 trillion yuan, with a single-day trading volume exceeding 6.4 million contracts on September 23 [2] - Central banks globally are expected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold in 2025, with emerging markets like China and India increasing their holdings [2] Group 2: Price Drivers - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in 2025 has directly catalyzed the rise in gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the holding costs of gold [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven, with historical data showing a 2.3% increase in gold prices for every 10-point rise in the geopolitical risk index [4] - The deterioration of the U.S. debt situation and the weaponization of the dollar have undermined global trust in the dollar, activating gold's "credit substitute" property and leading to structural buying from central banks [5] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Short-term forecasts suggest gold prices may reach $4,000 within 1-2 years, supported by central bank purchases even if the Fed delays further rate cuts [6] - In the medium term (3-5 years), if a BRICS currency system materializes and U.S. dollar dominance weakens, gold prices could potentially exceed $5,000 [6] - Long-term trends indicate that the current upward momentum, which began in 2018, may continue for an extended period, with extreme scenarios suggesting gold prices could challenge even higher targets in the event of a global debt crisis [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings are as follows: - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [10] - **PX**: Oscillating weakly [12] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly [13] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly [14] - **Styrene**: Oscillating weakly [17] - **MEG**: Oscillating weakly [19] - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating weakly [22] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating weakly [23] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation [26] - **Urea**: Oscillation [27] - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillation [30] - **PP**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PL**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PVC**: Partial oscillation [35] - **Caustic Soda**: Medium - long - term partial oscillation [36] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil futures continued to decline on Monday. If the EU introduces strong sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate. Chemical prices also continued to fall, but some varieties with good fundamentals showed positive arbitrage signs. The energy and chemical industry as a whole will continue the pattern of oscillating consolidation [1][2][3]. - For each specific product, the prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost support, showing different trends of oscillation, weakening, or strengthening [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, the weak - reality pattern is reflected in inventory year - on - year. The resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq may improve the implementation rate of Iraq's production increase. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with risks mainly concentrated in the geopolitical area [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price oscillates below 3,500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to continue increasing production and geopolitical escalation offset the decline in demand. The pricing power of asphalt futures may return to Shandong. The current market expects high - start and low - inventory to digest production pressure, but the invisible inventory in South China is a concern [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price oscillates weakly. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to increase production, geopolitical escalation, and a significant increase in Russia's fuel oil exports in early September have led to a weakening of the fuel oil cracking spread. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It may face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand and maintain low - valuation operation [10]. - **PX**: Supply - demand margin weakens, cost has no obvious support, and processing fees are under pressure. Oil prices are weak, and the chemical market sentiment is poor. The delay of some PX device maintenance and the increase in downstream PTA device maintenance drag down PX demand to some extent [12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and there is no continuous positive in supply - demand. Cost performance is poor, and the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The downstream demand is affected by the National Day holiday, and there is no obvious positive support [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The future outlook is still pessimistic, and the price returns to decline. Although there was a short - term boost at the beginning of the week, with the implementation of interest - rate cut benefits and the impact of news such as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the price declined. Before the end of the year, it is difficult to destock, especially with high import pressure in October [14]. - **Styrene**: There is insufficient fundamental positive, and the price resumes decline. The contradiction lies in the difficulty of destocking high inventories in the upstream and downstream. Although there is a destocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory accumulation cycle from November to December [17]. - **MEG**: Before the festival, the port shipment performance is poor, and the port inventory accumulates. Cost support is not obvious, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in the long - term [18]. - **Short Fiber**: Inventory is slightly destocked, and processing fees are firm. The support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price mainly follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The processing fees have strengthened bottom support during the peak season [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: Low prices stimulate some factories to purchase, and processing fees operate stably. The cost support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price oscillates and declines. However, due to its own limited driving force, the decline is limited, and processing fees expand passively [23]. - **Methanol**: There is still a certain stocking demand before the festival, and the methanol futures price oscillates and declines. The price of upstream manufacturers has decreased, but the low inventory level in the inland area and the stocking demand before the National Day support the market. There is a contradiction between high inventory pressure in the port in the near - term and the expected overseas shutdown in the far - term [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of looseness is difficult to change, and the futures price is continuously under pressure along the cost line. On September 22, the supply - side daily output and operating rate continued to increase, while the demand - side support was insufficient, and the export expectation was weakening [27]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream transactions still increase in volume, and the price oscillates and declines. Affected by factors such as oil price oscillation, macro - atmosphere, and supply - demand situation, although the downstream demand may have certain support before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the overall fundamental situation is still under pressure [30]. - **PP**: It oscillates and declines, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. Affected by oil price and macro - factors, it has reached near the low point in June, and there is still some support. Although there is some downstream restocking demand before the festival, the supply - side pressure still exists [31]. - **PL**: It follows PP to fluctuate and oscillates and declines in the short - term. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the willingness to further reduce prices is limited. The PP - PL spread oscillates around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally [32]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment declines, and it should be treated with caution and weakly. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. The production may decline, the downstream demand improves, and the signing of orders improves [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Strong expectation but weak reality, and the futures price is partial to oscillation. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the fundamental situation of caustic soda still has pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The inventory receipt volume of Weiqiao is high, and the purchase price has been lowered. However, the expected stocking of alumina for caustic soda in 2026Q1 is strong [36]. 3.2 Product Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: It shows the cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - product spreads of various products, reflecting the price relationships and changes among different products and different contract periods [38][39][40]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although specific data are not detailed in the summary part, it is expected to further analyze the basis and spread of various chemical products to provide references for market participants [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) show different trends of increase and decrease, reflecting the overall performance of the commodity market on September 22, 2025 [281][283].

【机构观点分析】 东证期货最新分析认为，周一金价强势上涨2%再创新高，美联储利率会议落地后各位票委开始出来讲 话，最为鸽派的特朗普亲信米兰继周五的鸽派讲话后再度表示应该以50bp的速度持续降息，提振了市场 情绪。鹰派阵营的博斯蒂克则表示年内不再需要降息，同属鹰派的还有哈马克，但目前市场受鸽派的影 响更大，同时对未来美联储货币政策独立性的担心有增无减，未来财政赤字货币化的风险增加。本周预 计黄金波动增加。 Tastylive.com网站：即便处于3700美元的高位也依然没看到做空黄金的理由 BullionVault：黄金和白银市场正在经历"完美风暴" 东证期货：金价再创新高 预计本周波动将增加 中国国际期货早盘观点认为，美联储理事米兰的激进鸽派言论令市场情绪继续偏向乐观，黄金再创历史 新高。另外，地缘风险也促金价上涨。近期英法等多个国家承认巴勒斯坦国，而以色列方面则表现冷， 甚至扬言称其目标不仅在于加沙，并称不再谈两国方案。当下，主要关注美联储主席鲍威尔周二的讲话 和美国最新核心PCE通胀数据，若鲍威尔释放温和信号或PCE数据表现疲软，黄金可能将有更多上涨空 间，反之，则可能出现回调。 中国国际期货：米兰激进鸽 ...

Report Title - Glass: Low-level Volatility Continues, Focus on Peak-season Demand; Soda Ash: Supply Pressure Remains, Adopt Rebound Shorting Strategy [1] Report Core Views - For soda ash, the production remains at a high level, downstream low-price replenishment occurs but overall consumption fluctuates little, and the absolute inventory is high with limited fundamental drivers. In the short term, affected by market sentiment changes, the soda ash futures price rebounds and then falls. Overall, with a supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds. For glass, there is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [4][38]. Summary by Industry Soda Ash Price - This week, the spot price remained stable, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas had North China heavy soda ash at 1325 (unchanged) and East China heavy soda ash at 1250 (unchanged). Last week, the prices of heavy and light soda ash slightly decreased, with the national heavy soda ash market price at 1285 and the light soda ash market price at 1245, and the heavy-light soda ash price difference at +40 (unchanged). The futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract was 1318 (+28), the 1-5 spread was -89 (-11), and the basis of the main 01 contract was -32 (-23) (using the national heavy soda ash average price) [5][10]. Supply - Last week, the soda ash production was 74.57 tons (-1.54, -2.02%), including 32.80 tons of light soda ash (-1.14) and 41.77 tons of heavy soda ash (-0.40). The operating rate was 85.53% (-1.76%), with the ammonia-soda method at 88.87% (-1.97%) and the combined soda method at 75.53% (-1.87%) [4][14]. Demand - Last week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 78.76 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.24%; the overall production-sales ratio was 105.62%, a week-on-week increase of +2.39%. Last week, the soda ash demand remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid demand. Next week, the float glass is expected to increase slightly, while the photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. In August, the soda ash imports were 0.03 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -0.29 tons; exports were 21.54 tons, a month-on-month increase of +5.41 tons, resulting in an increase in net exports [4][23]. Inventory - Last week, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 175.56 tons (-4.19, -2.33%), including 74.95 tons of light soda ash (-1.35) and 100.61 tons of heavy soda ash (-2.48). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories decreased [4][30]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined soda method (double tons) was -70.5 yuan/ton (-16); the profit of the ammonia-soda method was -36.75 yuan/ton (-0.45), showing overall stability [4][35]. Strategy - Given the high soda ash production, low-price downstream replenishment with little overall consumption fluctuation, and high absolute inventory, the fundamental drivers are limited. Considering the supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Glass Price - Last week, the glass spot price remained stable with a slight increase. The ex-factory price of Wuhan Changli 5mm glass was 1160 (+40), and the ex-factory price of Shahe Anquan 5mm glass was 1088 (+12). The price difference between Changli and Shahe was +72 (+28). The futures price also rose. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 1216 (+36), the 1-5 spread was -127 (-23), and using the Wuhan Changli ex-factory price as the spot benchmark, the basis of the main 01 contract was -56 (+4) [39][44]. Supply - Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 16.02 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The float glass production was 112.12 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The operating rate of float glass was 76.01%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. Last week, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 225 in production and 71 cold-repaired and shut down [38][50]. Demand - As of early September, the order days of deep-processing enterprises were 10.4 days, an increase of +0.75 compared to the previous period. The downstream demand recovery was slow. The real estate end-recovery situation was still weak, with the cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion end from January to August at -17%, and the front-end new construction willingness still low, with the cumulative year-on-year decline from January to July at -19.5%. According to CAAM data, in August, the automobile production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of +8.65% and +10.18% and year-on-year increases of +12.96% and +16.14%, respectively, which were at relatively high levels in recent years [38][59]. Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million weight cases, a week-on-week decrease of -1.10%. Different regions had different inventory changes, with North China increasing by 3.34%, East China decreasing by -1.35%, Central China decreasing by -5.41%, South China decreasing by -1.44%, Southwest increasing by 0.45%, Northeast decreasing by -2.27%, and Northwest decreasing by -6.25% [38][65]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of coal-gas-fired float glass was +94.03 yuan/ton (-6.37); the profit of natural-gas-fired float glass was -164.84 yuan/ton (+9.29); the profit of petroleum-coke-fired float glass was 41.37 yuan/ton (+11.43). The industry profit remained stable in the short term [38][79]. Strategy - There is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [38].

日度报告——综合晨报 中美元首通电话 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-22 宏观策略（黄金） 中美元首通电话 国际金价周五上涨超 1%再创新高，受到美联储新任理事米兰鸽 派讲话的带动，米兰强化了市场对于美联储未来几次会议将连 续降息的预期，叠加中美贸易谈判没有实质性进展。 9 月 19 日北港市场动力煤报价偏强 供应端主动调控，煤价或延续偏强，但伴随煤价走高，下游抵 抗预计愈发强烈，关注电厂和煤矿博弈情况，短期价格或延续 强势。 农产品（白糖） 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 英加澳同日发表正式声明 综 英加澳同日发表正式声明承认巴勒斯坦国，这是明显的地缘表 态，以色列面临的政治压力明显上升，地缘风险存在变数。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 金融监管部门将集体亮相介绍金融业发展情况 报 近期股市大幅动荡，行情走势更极致化，科技股与传统权重股 出现背离，畸形结构的背后是监管调控的加强。我们建议短期 适度止盈以应对高波动。 黑色金属（动力煤） 巴西中南部：8 月下半月产糖量同比增长 18%至 387 万吨 巴西公布了 8 月下半月的压榨生产数据，因干燥的天气有利于压 榨的推进，再加上糖高制糖 ...