铝周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘风险放大波动 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2026年1月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4499.6万吨；1月电解铝产量同比增长2.7%、环比增加0.5%。预计2月 运行产能保持相对稳定，部分新建电解铝项目逐渐爬产。2026年1月国内铝水比例环比下降4.4个百分点至72.1%，2月铝水比例预计继续下降， 节后首周铝水比例继续下滑。1月海外电解铝产量同比增长约1.9%。 ◆ 库存&现货：2月26日铝锭库存录得117.5万吨，较节前增加26.1万吨。保税区库存录得4.4万吨，环比微降。铝棒库存合计39.6万吨，较节前 增加8.6万吨。2月27日LME铝库存录得46.6万吨，周环比下滑。春节后国内华东铝锭现货基差下探，LME市场Cash/3M贴水缩窄。 ◆ 进出口： ...

朋友们，昨晚贵金属市场又疯了。 所以问题来了：现在还能追吗？ 我的判断很明确：短期别追高，长期别下车。 现货白银一度暴涨超6%，突破94美元/盎司，创下近两个月新高；现货黄金站上5280美元，逼近历史高 点。黄金2月累计上涨7.6%，连续第七个月收红；白银更猛，2月累涨近10%。 为什么涨？这次是三股力量同时发力。 第一股力量：地缘风险又回来了。 美军"福特"号航母抵达以色列水域，美国在中东部署的航母增至两 艘。美国驻以色列大使馆批准非紧急人员撤离。美伊谈判有进展但没定论，市场始终悬着一颗心。只要 霍尔木兹海峡这个"世界油阀"的航运安全受威胁，避险情绪就不会散。 第二股力量：资金在轮动。 美股那边，英伟达财报后连跌两天，AI硬件股集体回调。资金从涨太多的 科技股里撤出来，往贵金属里挪一挪。加上美债收益率跌破4%，持有黄金的机会成本下降，更刺激了 避险需求。 第三股力量：长期逻辑没变。 全球央行还在买金，中国央行连续15个月增持。美元信用弱化的叙事还 在继续。白银更特殊——连续五年供不应求，光伏、AI、新能源汽车的工业需求爆发，让它的价格弹 性远超黄金。 但这次有个细节值得注意：国内品牌金店开始酝酿新一轮提价。 ...

来源：中国证券报-中证网 Wind数据显示，当地时间2月27日，美股三大指数全线收跌，道指跌1.05%。 美股科技股、银行股普跌，高盛集团跌超7%，英伟达跌超4%，苹果跌逾3%。中概股多数下跌，阿特斯 太阳能、爱奇艺等跌幅居前。 大宗商品市场方面，国际贵金属价格普涨，白银大涨，国际油价上涨。 美股三大指数全线收跌 当地时间2月27日，美股三大指数全线收跌。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指跌1.05%报48977.92点， 标普500指数跌0.43%报6878.88点，纳指跌0.92%报22668.21点。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.81%。个股方面，阿特斯太阳能、爱奇艺、世纪互联、蔚 来等跌幅居前；金山云、涂鸦智能等涨幅居前。 | W 京新 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | 现价 | 涨跌 == | | 阿特斯太阳能 | | | 17.710 | -11.18% | | CSIQ.O | | | | | | 灿谷 | | | 0.762 | -9.47% | | CANG.N | | | | ...

国际货币基金组织在周三（2月25日）表示，预计美国今年的经济增长率将从2025年的2.2%上升至2.4%，失业率可能处于4%附 近，通胀可能逐步回落，美联储在今年有望适度下调政策利率。 美联储理事米兰此前曾预计2026年美联储的利率将降至2%—2.25%区间，但美联储官员普遍预计今年降息一次是合适的。米兰 最新的表态认为不存在通胀的问题，今年利率可能会下调100个基点，即4次下调25个基点，且宜早不宜迟。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近期投资者格外关注美伊谈判的进展，地缘风险仍不可忽视，有利于金价上 涨。 技术面：黄金今天将收月线，目前为大阳线，表明黄金仍保持上涨势头。黄金本周维持震荡，小时图震荡收敛，突破方向在 即，短线来看，低点不断上移，上方若突破5220美元则有望上冲至5250-5280美元区间。 原油方面： 近日美伊谈判有了新的消息，作为调解方的阿曼外交大臣表示双方取得了重大进展，并计划下周在维也纳展开技术层面的讨 论。伊朗外长表示，双方在一些问题上达成共识，但有些方面仍存在分歧。 美国方面坚持将伊朗的弹道导弹和对其他地区武装的支持行为必须纳入讨论范围，重点依然在弹道导弹和核问题。一名伊 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1146.480 | -4.6↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22572 | -457.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151,642.00 | -3433.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 8,949.00 | -791.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 169,407.00 | -29130.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 357,610.00 | -55549.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 346,369 | -9461↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1144.51 | -1.13↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 21,797.00 | 157.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -1.97 | 3.45↑ 沪银主力合约基差(日 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising before retreating, indicating a short-term trend of potential adjustment and volatility, yet supported by various moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook upon reaching support levels [1][3] Price Movement - Gold opened at $5143.28 per ounce, recorded a low of $5120.96, and later rebounded to a high of $5217.39 before closing at $5165.06, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $96.43 and a net increase of $21.78, or 0.42% [3] Influencing Factors - The price of gold was supported by technical buying and geopolitical tensions related to U.S. military buildup ahead of nuclear negotiations with Iran, as well as Iran's ongoing nuclear ambitions [3] - However, the prospect of the U.S. maintaining short-term interest rates may pose challenges for gold prices, alongside a recovery in risk appetite and rising stock markets, which diminished demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Additionally, the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields has further limited bullish momentum for gold, contributing to its eventual retreat [3]

镍期货市场：美指下跌提振，隔夜伦镍收涨0.73%；伦镍最新收盘报18045，比前一交易日上涨130美元/ 吨，涨幅为0.73%，成交量为11886手，国内市场，沪镍主力合约最新收报141680元/吨，涨幅为0.11%。 今日镍价走势预测 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月25日伦镍库存报287808吨，较前一交易日库存量增加480吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线低开为主；主力月2605合约开盘报141000跌520元/吨，9：20分沪镍 主力2603合约报140790跌730元/吨；沪期镍开盘低开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，国际层面，日 内瓦同时上演两场关键谈判：美伊间接对话与美乌闭门会谈，显示出外交努力与军事压力并存的复杂态 势。与此同时，红海航运危机持续，推高全球物流成本，多重地缘风险显著提振了市场的避险情绪，推 动贵金属走强。国内方面，政策组合拳集中落地。"沪七条"楼市新政正式施行，旨在稳定市场预期；全 国性汽车、家电等消费补贴重启，直接刺激内需；人民币汇率走强，则为跨境贸易与资本流动创造了有 利条件。这些举措共同强化了经济复苏的微观基础。在此宏观环境下，兼具工业属性与金融属性的有色 金属成为资金关注 ...

黄金今日开盘继续维持区间震荡，但是总体趋势保持回踩做多思路不变，今天我们继续关注下方短期支撑5145-50一线附近，重点关注前期触底反弹5090- 5100一线重要支撑位置，短期内大区间震荡的因素有美联储接连释放鹰派信号，强调通胀未达目标，降息预期再度延后以及地缘风险未完全消散，全球央行 购金趋势不改为金价提供底部托底，市场多空针锋相对。而日线金价触底反弹拉升，目前小时线短线呈现探底回升趋势，下方5140-50一线附近构成短期支 撑，操作上保持回撤做多策略不动摇，整体上行结构非常明显，多头持续保持强势崛起。不断刷新高点。如果你目前操作不理想，希望许安丰能让你的投资 少走弯路，欢迎前来沟通交流！ 黄金操作策略： 1、黄金回踩回踩5140-5150一线多，回踩5090-5100一线补仓多，止损5082一线，目标5250-5270一线，破位继续持有； 从4小时行情走势来看，上方关注5270-5280一线短期压制，下方关注5140-5145一线短期支撑情况，重点关注5090-5100一线支撑情况，操作上以稳健操作回 撤做多为主，具体操作策略我会在盘中提示，及时关注。 文/许安丰 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1154.34 | 1151.060 | 22786 | 23029 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1153.82 | 1150.500 | 22030 | 22327 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 0.52 | 0.560 | 756 | 702 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.05% | 0.05% | 3.43% | 3.14% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 100812 | 155075 | 149845 | 182667 | | | | 成交量 | 51239 | 198537 | ...