Risk Management & Trading Strategy - Previous trading involved 5x leverage, now reduced to 005x leverage [1] - Past strategies included arbitrage, inter-exchange trading, and large spread positions [1] - Current risk control is prioritized due to market uncertainty [1] Market Warnings & Losses - Warnings were issued regarding Xpl, sapine, and pumpbtc [2] - Several large accounts collectively lost over 10 million due to MMT [2]

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月4日 | 网材产业期现日报 | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 削值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 231 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3145 | 3166 | -21 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3168 | 3189 | -21 | 52 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3079 | 3106 | -27 | 141 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3330 | -20 | 15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3250 | -20 | -୧2 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3310 | ...

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - The author claims expertise in trading small-cap cryptocurrencies, citing high win rates [1] - The author removed COAI from their watchlist on October 18th after its second decline, viewing it as a risky investment [1] - The author considers trading COAI similar to engaging in high-risk behavior with minimal potential gain [1] - The author suggests that the initial profitable phases of trading certain cryptocurrencies, like MYX and COAI, are over [1] Risk Assessment - The author implies that some cryptocurrency projects are akin to "民工找鸡" (migrant workers seeking prostitutes), suggesting low quality or high risk [1] - The author warns against investing in projects with potentially detrimental outcomes, comparing it to contracting a disease [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. It is expected that the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil will recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar at 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened. Consider that coal production continues to be reduced, and the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil increased from 3305 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products changed slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased, while the profit of some coal - related indicators increased. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, an increase of 1.0%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, an increase of 2.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with the range referring to 780 - 850. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of iron ore increased, and the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 yuan/ton to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, an increase of 1.6%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decrease of 19.5% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decrease of 7.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month. The inventory of beneficial ores of steel mills increased, and the inventory pressure increased [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1700 - 1850. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, but pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, and pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1748 yuan/ton to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal increased from 1242 yuan/ton to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coking coal decreased due to safety and environmental reasons in some areas. The production of coke also decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decrease, but there was replenishment demand after the festival [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of steel mills decreased. The overall inventory of coke was slightly reduced, and the overall inventory of coking coal was slightly increased [6].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and it's difficult for overseas inventories to grow. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - environment remains favorable. [4] Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $212.89/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,400 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 128,753 lots, and the open interest was 120,693 lots. The highest price was 22,440 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 1,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, down 1,800 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced an overall increase, with the CSI 500 index futures showing the largest gain of 3.46%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest gain of 2.63% [3][12] - Average trading volumes for the current, next, and seasonal contracts of IC, IF, and IH decreased, with IF showing the largest decline of 23.95% [3][12] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.93%, -9.59%, -12.00%, and -0.18%, respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis for IF, IC, and IH, while IM's basis deepened [3][12] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - The cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at 62.10%, 49.10%, 63.90%, and 40.40% percentiles since 2019 [4][13] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices [4][13] - The estimated impact of dividends on the index points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices over the next year is projected to be 78.04, 84.14, 69.75, and 64.41, respectively [4][13][42] Group 3: Market Expectations - With the main dividend period concluded, the impact of dividends on the four major index futures contracts is minimal, and the basis changes are closely related to investor trading sentiment [5][14] - The valuation level of the SSE 50 index is in a historically high percentile range, suggesting that using long-term contracts may offer better value, although liquidity risks should be monitored [5][14] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among 10 brokerages indicates that the A-share market is expected to continue its upward or slow bull trend, supported by policy expectations and deployments [6][40] - The technology growth, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and consumer recovery sectors are viewed positively, benefiting from policy support, industrial upgrades, and improved supply-demand dynamics [6][40][43] - There are differing views on the sustainability of cyclical trends, with some brokerages expressing concerns over short-term inventory pressures that may weaken resilience [6][40][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of life principles and investment strategies, advocating for a non-discriminatory approach to both people and investment varieties, suggesting that those who cannot embrace the former are unlikely to succeed in the latter [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of investment is seen as arbitrage, with a belief that only highly skilled individuals can share in the growth dividends of enterprises [3]. - A stable dividend is considered the only justification for stock trading, and maintaining a low expectation is crucial for a healthy mindset [4]. - The financial market is likened to a large breeding ground, where only a small percentage of participants (5%) manage to survive and maintain equilibrium [9]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Psychology - Many investors mistakenly attribute their financial success to personal ability, overlooking the role of luck and external factors [11]. - The article suggests that most individuals view the market from a self-centered emotional perspective, rather than understanding the underlying logic and behavior of capital [12]. - It highlights the importance of learning from masters and maintaining humility, as even simple insights can provide profound understanding [13].

Core Viewpoint - The only silver futures fund in the market, Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures (LOF), has upgraded its purchase limits due to a surge in precious metal prices and increased market activity, aiming to protect the interests of fund holders [1][3][5]. Fund Purchase Limit Upgrade - Starting from October 20, the fund has set new purchase limits for its A and C class shares at 100 yuan and 1,000 yuan respectively, significantly lower than previous limits [1][3][5]. - This is the second time the fund has implemented purchase limits within a short period, having previously set limits of 6,000 yuan for A class and 40,000 yuan for C class shares on October 15 [5]. Market Context - The global precious metals market has seen a significant rally, with gold prices surpassing 4,200 USD per ounce and silver prices reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - As of October 17, the A class unit net value of Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures has increased by 58.10% year-to-date, outperforming gold-related funds [5]. Fund Management Considerations - The upgrade in purchase limits is attributed to increased volatility in silver prices and a rise in speculative trading behavior, prompting the fund management to ensure stable operations and protect investor interests [6]. - The fund is a passive product that closely tracks the main silver futures contracts, maintaining high positions without active timing strategies, which has contributed to its returns amid rising silver prices [5][6]. Market Dynamics and Risks - The silver market has experienced a 79% increase year-to-date, outpacing gold's 62% rise, making it an attractive asset for investors [7]. - Analysts caution that the current bullish sentiment may be waning, with many positive factors already priced in, and potential headwinds from U.S.-China trade negotiations and interest rate expectations [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy involves reallocating funds into the Guangfa Value Leading Mixed Fund, which focuses on sectors with potential for recovery, particularly in tourism and aviation, despite recent market downturns [1]. Fund Reallocation - The reallocation targets the Guangfa Value Leading Mixed Fund, which is characterized as a fund focused on the "airline + OTA platform" sector, effectively functioning like an index ETF while being actively managed [1]. - The rationale for this reallocation is to take profits from funds that have appreciated significantly and invest in those with lower growth, aiming to control portfolio drawdowns [1]. Sector Analysis - **Aviation Sector**: - The aviation industry faces challenges due to a decline in business travel and reduced consumer spending, impacting passenger numbers [5]. - Factors such as currency exchange rates, fuel costs, and aircraft supply are seen as favorable for the aviation sector, with a potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [6][12]. - Recent data indicates a strong willingness among consumers to travel, with domestic travel during the recent holiday period reaching 888 million trips, a 16% increase year-on-year [12]. - **Tourism Sector**: - The tourism sector is divided into four sub-sectors: duty-free (China Duty-Free Group and Shanghai Airport), attractions (Songcheng Performance and Overseas Chinese Town), airlines (Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines), and hotels (Jinjiang and Shouqi) [4]. - The duty-free segment is struggling with declining consumer purchasing power, leading to reduced profit margins [4]. - The attractions sector is volatile, with visitor numbers fluctuating significantly, impacting financial stability for many companies [4]. - The hotel industry is facing intense competition, with new entrants emerging post-pandemic, leading to continued market saturation [4]. Investment Outlook - The aviation and duty-free sectors are viewed as having potential investment value, contingent on a recovery in consumer spending [5]. - The overall sentiment suggests that while the tourism and hotel sectors may present risks, the aviation sector could see significant upside if consumer demand is stimulated through effective policy measures [12].

Core Insights - The current commodities market, particularly for copper, is experiencing supply tightness, which is influencing spot prices to rise above futures prices, indicating backwardation [1][2][14] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) operates under a duty unpaid contract structure, which allows for a global baseline price unaffected by tariffs, contrasting with the duty paid prices seen in New York [3][4] - There is a medium-term demand driver for copper across various applications, but current price actions are primarily influenced by supply-side disruptions [6][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions have been noted, including tragic incidents affecting the supply chain, highlighting its fragility [7] - Despite a growing Chinese economy, the demand for copper has not matched previous levels, leading to a surplus in the market [8][9] - The establishment of delivery warehouses in Hong Kong aims to facilitate the arbitrage between short-term supply and medium-term bullish expectations [10] Market Structure and Trading Opportunities - The LME is focusing on enhancing transparency and diversity in supply chains by introducing new brands from various regions [17] - There is a conversation around the need for the West to reinvest in smelting capacity to ensure supply chain diversity [18] - The LME has introduced reports to improve market visibility, such as the off warrant stock report, to democratize trading [21] Speculation and Market Governance - The LME is committed to enhancing market transparency to prevent speculative manipulation, although concerns about price manipulation in the copper market persist [19][22] - The governance of the LME copper contract is viewed as robust, with ongoing efforts to shine a light on broader market activities [22][23]