周期论道——中期展望：美股再上高台，配置该如何布防 20250612 摘要 美股面临三周期共振风险，包括 42 个月、100 个月和 200 个月周期， 预示下半年可能出现趋势性下跌，其级别或超 2008 年和 2000 年，引 发全球市场高波动。 流动性冲击下，黄金、美元和美债是关键避险资产。美元可能走强，美 债利率有望随经济衰退下降，但美股风险释放速度是关键，财政问题或 加剧美股压力。 国内市场下半年预计强于海外，推荐红利加科技的哑铃型配置策略，以 应对国内外经济环境变化，实现稳健投资回报。 全球商品市场已进入下行周期，避险资产利率和汇率也呈下降趋势。美 元指数波动剧烈，存在反弹可能，海外利率有望继续下降。 全球制造业 PMI、工业生产指数等宏观指标均显示经济进入下行周期， 预示未来经济活动和通胀将降温。 量化模型显示美国股票同比序列及其滤波均呈向下趋势，费城半导体指 数与标普全球同比一致，验证全球股票市场总体趋向。 A 股估值低，基本面增长因子处于低位，相对于美国股票更具优势，建 议采用红利加科技哑铃型配置，把握结构性的投资机会。 Q&A 如何看待今年下半年全球股票市场的整体趋势？ 目前基钦周期已经出现 ...

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the tire industry and its relation to the automotive supply chain, particularly focusing on the impact of recent tariff policies in the United States and their effects on both domestic and international markets [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Tire Industry**: - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was initially high in Q1 2025 but dropped to last year's levels after the implementation of equal tariffs in April and further declined with the introduction of tariffs on auto parts in May [1][2]. - This indicates a sustained negative impact from tariffs on the tire industry [2]. 2. **Consumer Behavior and Inventory Management**: - U.S. consumers showed a cautious approach to spending, with durable goods orders spiking in March but declining to the lowest growth rate of the year by April, reflecting increased uncertainty [1][3][4]. - Companies are advised to focus on inventory management and adjust production and sales strategies in response to changing demand [1]. 3. **U.S. Import Trends**: - In Q1 2025, U.S. imports accounted for nearly 13% of consumer spending, with industrial goods imports increasing by 53% year-over-year, while energy imports remained stable [5][6]. - There was a notable decline in imports of automobiles and parts, attributed to domestic price wars in the automotive sector [6]. 4. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: - The domestic economy entered a low season in May, with declines in asphalt and cement mill operating rates, and a drop in rebar demand [8]. - However, the issuance of government bonds and special bonds may support infrastructure development [8]. 5. **Economic Performance in Q2 2025**: - The overall economic performance has shown seasonal weakness, with a decline in operating rates and low PTA prices [9]. - New home sales have rebounded to last year's levels, but the second-hand housing market remains weak [9]. 6. **Manufacturing PMI Data**: - May's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5, indicating a slight increase but still below the growth threshold, reflecting the impact of tariffs and other uncertainties [12][18]. - The service sector showed resilience, with a business activity expectation index reaching 56.5, indicating strong performance in productive services [19]. 7. **Future Economic Predictions**: - The upcoming months are expected to be challenging due to seasonal factors and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which may continue to impact manufacturing negatively [20]. - There is a need for potential policy measures to support domestic demand and stabilize production growth [20]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the complex interplay between tariff policies, consumer behavior, and inventory management, emphasizing the need for companies to remain agile in their strategies [2][4][10]. - The discussion also touches on the broader economic cycles, indicating that the current tariff uncertainties are beginning to yield to cyclical economic pressures [10][21].

文 | 江 露 来 源 | C F C 金 属 研 究 编 辑 | 杨 兰 审 核 | 浦 电 路 交 易 员 正 文 | 黄金 | 白银 | 铜 | 铝 | 氧化铝 | 锌 | 镇 | 锡 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 27. 0% | 9.3% | 4.9% | -1.5% | -35. 6% | -12. 8% | -0.7% | 6.7% | | 碳酸锂 | 工业研 | 多晶硅 | 硅铁/锰硅 | 螺纹钢 | 热卷 | 煤焦 | 铁矿石 | | -15. 2% | -24. 1% | -15. 4% | -12. 4%/- 5.3% | -8.2% | -7.4% | -23.9%/- 19. 4% | -10. 7% | 2.1 宏观展望:康波视角下当前周期判断 ◆ 目前已步入萧条:衰退时点为2009年,萧条转换点在2019年 图表:康波周期的划分 | 康波 | 繁荣 | 裹退 | 萧条 | 复苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一轮(纺织工业和 | 1782~1802 | 181 ...

黄金市场，一直是市场持续关注的焦点。 自5月21日伦敦现货黄金价格重回3300美元大关之后，今日延续高位。截至发稿，现货黄金报3326美元。 | | | 实时金价 | . .. | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 2025-05-23 14:24:33 实时金价 | | | ਵੇ | 商品 | 回购 | 销售 | 高/低 | | 价 | 把金 | 225.9 | 229.9 | 231.5 | | | | | | 224.2 | | | 白银(含税) | 7.53 | 7.75 | 7,78 | | | | | | 7.493 | | | 黄金(T+D) | 775.55 | 775.61 | 776.98 | | E | | | | 767.27 | | 海 黄 | 黄金99.99 | 775,5 | 776.15 | TOTAL IS | | leA> | | | | 768 | | 交易 町 | 黄金99.95 | 774 | 778 | 775 | | | | | | 767.5 | | | 白银(T+D) | 8233 | 8235 | 8 ...

Group 1: US Stock Market Analysis - The report suggests that the current rebound in the US stock market may be forming a large double top, indicating a potential end to the rally [1][19][25] - From a cyclical perspective, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are in a downward phase similar to the period around 2008, suggesting comparable risks [1][19][21] - The valuation perspective shows that as of May 16, 2025, the difference between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the inverse of the S&P 500 P/E ratio has risen to 0.68%, indicating lower investment attractiveness in US equities compared to bonds [1][35][37] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed a preference for value styles, with strong performances in financial and consumer sectors [2][10][11] - The report highlights that various ETFs, particularly large-cap and value ETFs, outperformed during the week, while TMT-related sectors have not fully recovered from previous lows [2][10][11] - The analysis of industry indices since early April indicates that sectors like retail, banking, and agriculture have recovered well, while technology sectors still have room for recovery [2][10][11] Group 3: Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - The genetic programming industry rotation model has achieved an absolute return of 14.64% this year, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 13.79 percentage points [3][39][40] - The model currently favors sectors such as computers, electronics, machinery, media, and home appliances, while excluding telecommunications [3][39][40] - The model's strategy balances TMT-related growth sectors with traditional industries and consumer-related sectors to maintain a diversified portfolio [3][39][40] Group 4: Absolute Return ETF Simulation - The absolute return ETF simulation portfolio has seen a slight decline of 0.05% last week but has accumulated a total return of 3.70% year-to-date [4][43][44] - The portfolio's asset allocation is based on recent trends, with a balanced focus on resource sectors like steel and non-bank financials, alongside technology sectors [4][43][44] - The current holdings include energy and soybean ETFs, while gold ETFs have been excluded [4][43][44] Group 5: Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation simulation currently favors bonds and foreign exchange, with a predicted ranking of future returns showing bonds at the top [47][48] - The simulation has recorded an annualized return of 7.29% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50, although it has faced a decline of 3.64% year-to-date [47][48] - The strategy emphasizes a higher risk budget for assets such as Chinese and US bonds [47][48]

Group 1 - Recent policies aim to improve listing standards, enhance inclusivity and competitiveness, promote mergers and acquisitions, and attract long-term capital to support the development of quality companies while facilitating the exit of underperforming firms [1][6] - China has achieved significant success as an emerging market economy, with a strong momentum towards further opening up and embracing globalization [1][6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has shown a strong performance recently, leading the mainland market, with an increasing correlation between the index and A-share market trends [3][4] - The A-share market has seen rapid development over the past 30 years, with approximately 5,400 companies listed [4] Group 3 - The current market is in a Kitchin contraction phase, which typically lasts around 11 to 12 months, with the U.S. market experiencing volatility and potential further declines [4][5] - Despite the trend of de-globalization, there is confidence that China's capital market will continue to thrive, supported by various measures aimed at stabilizing the market [5][6] Group 4 - The increasing number of companies listing in Hong Kong and the U.S. reflects China's ongoing integration into the global market, with a focus on enhancing market systems and regulatory frameworks [6]

Core Insights - The new fund, Creekstone Ventures, is focusing on AI investments and aims to connect closely with founders [1][2] - The fund plans to raise several tens of millions of dollars and has already identified two projects in the AI sector [2][3] - The investment strategy emphasizes vertical intelligence (ASI) and aims to support innovative projects in the AI space [9][15] Investment Focus - The fund will allocate approximately 60-70% of its capital to AI applications, particularly in consumer-oriented (ToC) sectors, and 15-20% to AI hardware [4][5] - The fund is particularly interested in projects that focus on vertical intelligence, aiming to develop super intelligence in specific fields [15][16] - There is a strong belief in the potential of Chinese AI applications to lead globally, as evidenced by the rapid growth of companies like DeepSeek [5][9] Project Examples - The fund has already committed to an AI coding company and an AI glasses company, with a focus on projects that simplify functionality rather than adding unnecessary features [2][3] - The investment in the AI coding project is seen as timely, given the founder's recent transition from a large tech company [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current market is experiencing rising valuations for projects, influenced by supply and demand dynamics and a reduction in the total capital available from traditional dollar funds [22][23] - The fund aims to differentiate itself by engaging deeply with founders and providing support that goes beyond traditional investment approaches [24][28] Entrepreneurial Support - Creekstone Ventures intends to offer emotional and strategic support to founders, leveraging their own experiences as entrepreneurs [6][7] - The fund emphasizes the importance of maintaining close relationships with portfolio companies, facilitating daily communication and collaboration [8][19] Future Outlook - The fund is optimistic about the potential for coding AI and believes that the Chinese market has significant opportunities in this area [16][17] - The focus will also be on identifying and investing in key components that support the development of future AI agents [15][16] Conclusion - Creekstone Ventures positions itself as a partner to entrepreneurs, aiming to foster innovation in the AI sector while navigating the evolving market landscape [28][30]

新华财经北京4月30日电（记者王小璐）29日，安泰科2025年（第十六届）有色金属市场报告会在北京 召开。分析师认为，受全球铜矿供应收缩与能源转型需求拉动双重驱动，2025年铜价或将延续高位震荡 格局，铜价全年均价有望突破2024年水平，长期上行趋势未改。 有色金属市场波动品种分化显著 安泰科高级分析师王晓旭表示，从基本面来看，2024年全球铜冶炼产能扩张遭遇矿端供应收缩，支撑铜 价高位运行。2025年一季度在以旧换新消费政策和风光抢装潮等因素刺激下铜消费好于预期，但外部环 境的冲击与不确定性会对铜消费带来负面影响。综合来看，铜作为能源转型的关键支撑材料，长期上行 趋势没有被破坏，预计2025年度铜均价高于2024年。 安泰科铝事业部经理申凌燕表示，2024年，中国电解铝供应和需求均实现了超预期增长，全年产量4346 万吨，同比增长4.3%；消费量4518万吨，同比增长5.5%。2025年以来，错综复杂且多变的宏观及行业 情况使得电解铝价格剧烈波动，整体呈"N"字型走势。后市来看，供应受限支撑铝价的逻辑仍然存在， 但出口下降、国内需求环比有转弱风险，同时成本重心继续下移，价格上涨空间或受压制，整体将表现 为前 ...