炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中泰证券研究 何长天|中泰饮料行业负责人 S0740522030001 1.2025年软饮料行业回顾 1.1行情回顾：截至2025年11月28日，申万软饮料指数年初以来涨幅7.6%，相对上证指数/食品饮料指数 超额收益分别为-8.4%/12.4%。估值层面，软饮料行业最新PE-TTM（剔除负值）约28.3倍，位于近三年 46%分位数，三季度以来板块估值水平回落。 1.2行业层面：量增推动销额较好增长、品类表现分化。按照尼尔森数据，我国软饮料销售额近年保持 中高个位数增长，量增为主、价基本持平，其中MAT2503销售额、销售量、单价分别同比增长7.4%、 7.2%、0.2%；分月度看，25H1软饮料全渠道销售额同比增速均为正，7月份开始转负且下滑趋势在8、9 月有所扩大，主要受外卖大战及新兴渠道如会员店、零食集合店崛起（尼尔森数据尚未覆盖）影响。细 分品类看，马上赢数据显示仅运动饮料连续3个季度保持较好增长，植物饮料H1销额双位数增长但价格 略承压，即饮果汁个位数增长、单价上行，其他品类销售额则不同程度承压，Q3全品类增长放缓或降 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is expected to stabilize in 2025 after a flat performance in 2024, with a year-on-year sales growth of 1.3% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average prices, which is an improvement from a 3.4% decline in 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The growth in the FMCG market is primarily coming from third to fifth-tier cities, where sales volume increased by 4% to 6%, offsetting a 2% to 3% decline in average prices [1] - Consumers are becoming more rational in their purchasing decisions, focusing on quality-price ratios rather than just low prices, indicating a structural adjustment in the market [1] Group 2: Category Performance - Among the four main FMCG categories, packaged food saw the fastest growth with a 3.4% increase in sales, driven by stable demand for core staple foods and snacks [2] - The household care category grew by 3.3%, supported by stable cleaning habits and innovative products, while personal care grew by 1.1% [2] - The beverage category experienced a decline of 1.1% due to intensified competition and the impact of ready-to-drink beverages [2] Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Emerging channels are becoming the core growth driver in the FMCG market, with offline channels like warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores expanding rapidly, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [2] - Instant retail channels have reversed last year's decline, showing a 7.9% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, attributed to the popularity of delivery services and increased product variety [2] Group 4: Brand and Retailer Strategies - Retailers are accelerating the development of private labels, which have seen an average annual growth of 44% over the past two years, now accounting for 2% of total FMCG sales in the first three quarters of this year [3] - Brands need to redefine their relationships with retailers and platforms, integrating channel insights into product and market strategies to seize opportunities in the new growth phase of the FMCG market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The beverage consumption peak season has ended, with leading companies reporting stable third-quarter results and further strengthening their advantages. The soft drink industry shows resilience in demand despite environmental disturbances, with a recommendation to focus on structural growth segments within the beverage sector, particularly functional drinks and sugar-free tea leaders [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of November 28, 2025, the Shenwan Soft Drink Index has increased by 7.6% year-to-date, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Food & Beverage Index by 8.4% and outperforming by 12.4% respectively. The current PE-TTM for the soft drink industry is approximately 28.3 times, positioned at the 46th percentile over the past three years, indicating a decline in valuation levels since the third quarter [1]. - The soft drink sales in China have maintained a mid-to-high single-digit growth in recent years, primarily driven by volume increases while prices remain stable. The MAT2503 sales figures show a year-on-year growth of 7.4% in sales revenue, 7.2% in sales volume, and a slight increase of 0.2% in price. However, sales growth turned negative starting in July 2025, influenced by competition in delivery services and the rise of new channels like membership stores and snack collection stores [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The soft drink industry is expected to experience structural prosperity driven by health and functionality trends, with demand remaining robust despite environmental disturbances. Positive price signals have emerged, with the CPI turning positive in October 2025 and PPI showing a narrowing decline. However, the recovery of internal demand may take time due to low consumer confidence and income growth being affected by asset prices [3]. - The beverage sector's revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2024 is projected at 12.8%, ranking third among food and beverage sub-sectors. The sales growth for the beverage sector in the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.4%, 17.8%, and 14.4% year-on-year, indicating a faster recovery and better resilience compared to other fast-moving consumer goods [4]. Group 3: Category Trends - The health and functionality trends in the soft drink category are expected to continue, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and larger packaging options. The market penetration among key consumer groups like Generation Z and Millennials has reached over 90%, with these demographics showing strong purchasing power and diverse demands for health, nutrition, and emotional satisfaction [5]. - The beverage industry is likely to benefit from continued cost advantages, with expectations of weak pricing for core ingredients like white sugar and PET, while corrugated paper prices are expected to rise, providing support [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the beverage industry is increasing, with leading companies enhancing their competitive advantages. From 2019 to 2024, the revenue CAGR for leading companies is 8.6%, while regional and niche companies have seen a decline of 0.7%. The net profit CAGR for leading companies is 15.5%, compared to 4.6% for smaller firms, indicating a strengthening of market positions for industry leaders [7].

文 |马上赢情报站 2025年已经接近尾声，未来两周马上赢情报站也将开启"年终盘点模式"。与往年类似，今年的年终盘点系列依然从饮料新品开始，通过回顾2024年12 月-2025年11月饮料市场的TOP100单品，以及与上一年同一时间段的对比，来观察在过去一年，饮料市场有什么新的趋势与走向。在下一周，我们将对饮 料各类目中的TOP集团及其份额变动进行盘点，敬请关注！ 本次盘点拉取的时间、TOP100新品选取方式、特别说明及数据说明如下： 时间： 2024年12月-2025年11月为整体（下文记作MAT202511或MAT2511，即自2025年11月起算向前回滚12个月），同比时间周期则为2023年12月-2024年11月为 整体（下文记作MAT202411或MAT2411，即自2024年11月起算向前回滚12个月） TOP100选取方式： 将所有在时间周期内上市的SKU，以其在饮料大类中的销售额市占率进行降序排列，取前100个SKU，限制条件为不含自有品牌产品、不含组合装（内装 数＞1的套组、箱、礼盒等），数据模型为马上赢全量门店模型。 特别说明： Top100新品上市时间虽然都在期内，但实际上市时间各不相同 ...

以下文章来源于盐财经 ，作者任早羽 盐财经 . 洞察趋势，睿智人生。《南风窗》旗下专业财经媒体。 一边是，代言人。 一边是，性价比。 文 ｜ 任早羽 编辑 ｜ 江江 来源｜ 盐财经（ID：nfc-yancaijing） 封面来源 ｜ 顾芗·AI制图 冬季，羽绒服的主场。在冷空气的催动下，无数消费开始挑选服装品牌。为了在销售的黄金时段抓住消费者的心，羽绒服品牌们各出奇招。 其中，被称为"县城羽绒服之王""中国羽绒服鼻祖"的鸭鸭，它的招数是，在进入冬季的两个月时间里，接连官宣五位代言人，并在地铁广告位大量铺设代 言人图。 鸭鸭在地铁站的广告位 五名代言人分别是，王一博、梓渝、欧豪、孙颖莎和鞠婧祎。他们的title略有不同，合作时间也有长有短，但是从带动的消费结果上看是类似的。 代言人的粉丝发挥了预期中的购买力，比如，在相关产品的评价区里，为了支持某某而购买产品的评论屡见不鲜； 同时，社交平台上海掀起了对鸭鸭羽绒服的好评讨论，它们的数量庞大，甚至覆盖掉了过去有关产品质量的恶评。 不过，对于想购买一件薄款羽绒的陈衢来说，吸引他最终购买鸭鸭的原因，却不是代言人们。 在快手渠道，鸭鸭的销量也同样可观。同样是2025年双十 ...

Core Insights - The global electric vehicle (EV) battery installation volume reached 811.7 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 34.7% year-on-year increase, with Asian companies dominating the market [2][3] Market Overview - Six Chinese companies, three South Korean companies, and one Japanese company remain in the top ten global battery manufacturers, with Chinese companies increasing their market share to 68.2% from 65.5% in the same period last year [2][3] - The total battery installation volume for the top six Chinese companies was 553.6 GWh, while South Korean companies' market share fell to 16.9%, a decline of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Company Performance - CATL maintained its leading position with a battery installation volume of 297.2 GWh, but its growth rate slowed to 31.5%, resulting in a slight decrease in market share to 36.8% [4] - BYD's battery installation volume grew by 45.6% to 145 GWh, increasing its market share to 17.9% [4] - Other notable performers include: - Zhongxin Innovation with a 41.5% increase to 39.3 GWh and a market share of 4.8% [5] - Guoxuan High-Tech with a 65.8% increase to 29.7 GWh and a market share of 3.7% [5] - EVE Energy with a 73.2% increase to 21.9 GWh and a market share of 2.7% [5] - Honeycomb Energy with an impressive 89.5% increase to 20.5 GWh and a market share of 2.5% [5] Regional Dynamics - South Korean companies LG Energy, SK On, and Samsung SDI saw their combined market share drop to 16.9%, with Samsung SDI being the only top ten company to experience a decline in installation volume [8][10] - Japanese company Panasonic's market share slightly decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [8] Market Challenges - The slowdown in growth for South Korean and Japanese companies is attributed to weak demand from core customers and a mismatch between their strategies and market needs [8][9] - The U.S. EV market growth has slowed significantly, with a 11.7% increase in sales year-on-year, primarily due to the expiration of federal tax credits [8][10] Technological Trends - The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries is gaining momentum, with LFP batteries expected to account for over 50% of global installations by 2024 [9] - Chinese companies dominate the LFP battery market, while South Korean companies continue to rely heavily on nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries, which are losing market share [9] International Expansion - Chinese battery companies are aggressively expanding into international markets, with significant growth in battery installation volumes outside of China [12][13] - BYD's international battery installation volume reached 25.8 GWh, a 145.9% increase, while Honeycomb Energy's international volume surged by 425.2% [13][14] Strategic Shifts - Both Chinese and international battery manufacturers are increasingly focusing on the energy storage market as a new growth avenue, driven by rising demand and the need to diversify from the competitive EV battery market [16][17] - Major companies like CATL and LG Energy are ramping up their energy storage battery production, with significant orders already in place [16][18]

智通财经APP获悉，在追求高性价比的消费者强劲需求带动下，美国达乐公司(DG.US)公布了强劲的第 三季度业绩和超预期的全年指引。财报显示，该公司各商品品类普遍实现增长，客流量上升推动销售额 增长4.6%，利润大幅跃升44%。 对此，Evercore ISI分析师Michael Montani在给客户的报告中评论道："美国达乐公司回归核心业务的战 略正持续见效，同店销售额增速稳定在2.5%至3%的行业平均水平区间。未来关键在于，如何在市场高 度期待的利润率回升与必要的再投资之间取得平衡——包括薪资水平提升、价格定位优化及供应链升级 等方面，从而在竞争激烈的食品零售行业中维持增长势头。" 该公司对全年展望的上调，反映了其对强劲假日销售季及市场份额增长的预期。同时，公司进一步扩大 生鲜食品业务并吸引了更多高收入客群，也增强了这一积极前景。 不过，富国银行分析师Edward Kelly指出，同店销售额仍是关键瓶颈。他表示："尽管同店销售表现有 所改善，但2.5%的增速仍缺乏吸引力，尤其考虑到公司长期杠杆率有望进一步提升的背景。"鉴于"同店 销售表现平淡及行业竞争压力"，Kelly维持对该股的"持有"评级，目标价定为 ...

以下文章来源于盐财经 ，作者陈慧 盐财经 . 洞察趋势，睿智人生。《南风窗》旗下专业财经媒体。 年轻人或许很难想象，常年出现在商铺、领导办公室的财神、关公，早已形成一门规模可观的生意。 正如 年轻人 能为泡泡玛特买单，中年男人往往也对于那些掂在手中颇有分量的 铜制工艺品 ，天生 没有抵抗力。 最近，一家被称作"中年男人的泡泡玛特"的公司引起了市场关注，它就是来自杭州的"铜师傅"。 铜师傅主要售卖的就是 铜制工艺品 。盐财经记者在深圳线下门店里注意到，铜师傅的展柜陈列的， 既有 "大圣传奇"、变形金刚等热门IP联名款，也有铜葫芦、财神雕塑、"聚宝盆"等经典款铜制品。 来源丨 盐财经 （ nfc-yancaijing ） 作者丨 陈慧 编辑丨宝珠 图源丨铜师傅官网 门店吸引了不少人驻足， 张可就是其中之一，他反复摩挲着一款全铜笔筒 ："摸着手感厚重，像老辈 人传下来的古玩" 。 他并非铜师傅的老粉，也对哪吒、钢铁侠这类IP联名毫无兴趣，但铜制品材质的质感、工艺的精致 度，以及传统文化赋予的吉祥寓意，让他买下了这件笔筒。 这家从杭州起家、深耕铜质文创十二年的企业，正是 靠着 这样一批受众的支撑，在资本市场持续发 力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "Tong Shifu," a company specializing in copper crafts, which has gained significant market attention and is often referred to as "the Bubble Mart for middle-aged men" [4][6]. Company Overview - Tong Shifu primarily sells copper crafts, including popular IP collaborations and traditional items like copper gourds and wealth sculptures [4][6]. - The company has submitted its application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the third time, following previous attempts that were unsuccessful [6][8]. Financial Performance - Tong Shifu has established itself as a leader in the industry, with annual revenues consistently above 500 million RMB, achieving 571 million RMB in 2024 and 308 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [8][18]. - The revenue breakdown shows that copper cultural products contribute nearly 95% of total revenue, with a significant reliance on a single product line [22][23]. Market Position and Challenges - Despite being a market leader with over 30% market share, the company faces growth limitations due to the small size of the copper craft market, projected to grow from 1.6 billion RMB in 2024 to only 2.3 billion RMB by 2029 [18][19]. - The company's profitability has shown volatility, with a notable decline in net profit in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about its growth sustainability [18][19]. Strategic Initiatives - To overcome growth ceilings, Tong Shifu has expanded its offline presence and is exploring international markets, while also launching sub-brands to tap into different segments [26][27]. - The company has engaged in collaborations with various IPs to attract attention, although there are concerns about the effectiveness of this strategy in meeting core consumer demands [28][34]. Investment and Ownership - The company has received significant backing from Xiaomi's ecosystem, with Xiaomi's capital contributing to its growth and operational strategies [16][18]. - The founder, Yu Guang, has integrated Xiaomi's value proposition of high cost-performance into Tong Shifu's business model, which has been crucial for its rapid rise [16][18]. Future Outlook - The upcoming listing is seen as a way to enhance brand credibility and market presence, although there are questions about the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amid market challenges [36][37]. - The focus on maintaining craftsmanship and cultural significance will be critical for Tong Shifu as it navigates the competitive landscape and seeks to expand its consumer base [37].

Core Viewpoint - Sony's television and mobile phone businesses are facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with declining market share and increasing customer complaints regarding product quality and service issues [1][9][10]. Television Business - Sony's market share in the Chinese television market has dropped to below 5% in 2024, with each of the four major foreign brands averaging around 1.25% [1][7]. - Customers have reported quality issues with several popular Sony TV models, including sound output failures shortly after the warranty period, leading to repair costs of several thousand yuan [2][4][6]. - The decline in Sony's television sales is attributed to the rise of domestic brands like Hisense and TCL, which offer better technology, features, and price-performance ratios [9][10]. - Sony's reputation has been further damaged by customer dissatisfaction with after-sales service and the perceived lack of responsiveness to quality complaints [6][9]. Mobile Phone Business - Sony has officially exited the Chinese mobile phone market, with the cancellation of its official WeChat account and the discontinuation of its website [10][12]. - The Xperia brand, once popular in China, has seen a significant decline in market presence due to competition from domestic brands like Huawei and Xiaomi [10][12]. - Sony's mobile phone business had been struggling for years, with no new models launched in China since the Xperia 5V in September 2023 [10][12]. Financial Performance - Sony's financial report for Q2 FY25 indicates that while other segments like music and gaming are performing well, the television and mobile phone divisions are in decline, contributing to a drop in overall profitability [13][14]. - The television and mobile phone businesses are categorized under "other businesses" in the financial report, reflecting their diminishing importance to the company's overall performance [14].