Group 1: Export Performance - June export growth rate was 5.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus forecast by 2.7 percentage points[3] - Cumulative export growth for the first half of the year was 5.9%, slightly higher than last year's full-year growth of 5.8%[3] - Trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $585.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.52%, surpassing last year's growth of 20.7%[3] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.1%, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, with U.S. exports accounting for 12% of total exports[4] - Exports to ASEAN countries maintained high growth at 16.9%, with Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines showing growth rates of 23.8%, 27.9%, and 10.2% respectively[4] - Exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany's export growth slowing to 3.5%[4] Group 3: Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive product exports showed improvement, with declines narrowing to -7.1% for bags, -1.6% for textiles, and -4.0% for footwear[5] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 8.2% and 6.9% respectively, with integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships showing high growth rates of 24.2%, 23.1%, and 23.6%[5] - The contribution of mechanical products to export growth was 4.8 percentage points, while high-tech products contributed 1.6 percentage points[5] Group 4: Import Trends - Import growth returned to positive territory at 1.1%, a significant rebound of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of import growth, with rates of 6.4% and 10.0% respectively[6] - Energy product imports faced declines, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas showing decreases of -44.7%, -15.0%, and -5.9% respectively due to falling prices[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue, supported by tariff exemptions and ongoing "export grabbing" strategies[7] - However, medium to long-term pressures may build due to the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential demand exhaustion[7] - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected economic recovery abroad[8]

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, a rise of 1 percentage point compared to May[3] - Exports to the US fell by 16.1% year-on-year in June, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to overall export growth[4] - For the first half of 2025, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year[6] Import Trends - In June 2025, imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from May[7] - Imports from the US decreased by 15.5% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Cumulatively, imports in the first half of 2025 fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 6.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year[10] Market Dynamics - The reduction in US tariffs following the Geneva talks in May has led to a significant recovery in exports to the US, although tariffs remain high at approximately 41.3%[4] - The "temporary suspension" of global tariffs by the US has allowed Chinese companies to continue exporting to markets outside the US, with exports to ASEAN growing by 16.8% year-on-year in June[4] - The overall trade environment remains volatile, with expectations of a decline in export growth to around 1.0% in July due to ongoing high tariffs and weakening external demand[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. The outlook for the future is oscillating and slightly strengthening. [2][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main contract of rebar RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, with a position of 2.1269 million lots, a decrease of 103,100 lots. The main contract of hot - rolled coils HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.61031 million lots, an increase of 132,000 lots. - Spot market: This week, the spot price center of rebar moved up. As of July 17, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price center of hot - rolled coils moved down. As of July 17, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,200 yuan/ton compared with last week. [5][6] 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 16 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. [10][11][12] Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel this week was 83.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.83 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products counted by Mysteel this week was 8.6819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 tons. The effect of the "anti - involution" policy signal is gradually emerging, and the reduction of rebar and hot - rolled coils is obvious. [19] 2.2 Demand - Recently, the US government has targeted 14 countries and imposed a "tariff bomb." US President Trump posted multiple letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off - season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino - US trade friction and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. The path for the realization of the off - season logic in the future is expected to be less smooth, and the demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. [2][30] 2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country counted by Mysteel this week was 9.2211 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.1555 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,200 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 13.3766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and the steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream and continuing a certain de - stocking trend. [2][34] 2.4 Profit - This week, the price of rebar rose. The average cost of electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The increase in rebar prices in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. The average profit of steel mills was - 92 yuan/ton, and the average profit during off - peak electricity hours was 11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Some electric arc furnace steel mills have turned from losses to profits and have actively chosen to resume production or increase production time to improve production saturation. [2][47] 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billets increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,993 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 20 yuan/ton to 768 yuan/ton. [56] Summary and Investment Suggestions - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. [2][59]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and the various hidden mechanisms involved in "anti-involution" [4]. Deep Dive Topics - The "anti-involution" topic has gained traction, but there is a considerable divergence in understanding, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to misinterpretations [4]. - The article emphasizes that beyond production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, there are numerous hidden strategies associated with "anti-involution" [4]. Hot Topics - Since June, there has been a resurgence of the "golden-haired girl" trading phenomenon overseas, with domestic sentiment also heating up. The article questions which data might exceed expectations and whether the market's main narrative will shift due to the effects of tariffs [8]. - The importance of "strategic resources" has been underscored in the context of changing global trade dynamics, prompting an exploration of which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]. High-Frequency Tracking - The role of "export grabbing" is evolving, with a shift from emerging markets to the United States, indicating a change in export dynamics [13]. - Credit improvement is primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises, reflecting a trend in financial data [17]. - The June economic data reveals five significant anomalies, suggesting new changes in the economy that may be hidden [21]. - The article notes that the third quarter will serve as a verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects, with a focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [24]. - Domestic infrastructure construction has shown a continuous recovery, while industrial production remains relatively stable, although there is a divergence in the construction sector and a slowdown in real estate transactions [26]. - The expiration of tariff exemptions has led to declines in most developed markets, indicating a potential impact on international trade dynamics [29].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms [4] Group 1: Deep Dive on "Anti-Involution" - The market's understanding of "anti-involution" is largely misaligned, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to incorrect conclusions [4] - Besides production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, "anti-involution" encompasses various "hidden strategies" that are not widely recognized [4] Group 2: Economic Trends and Data Analysis - Recent economic data from June reveals five notable anomalies, indicating new changes in the economy that may not be immediately apparent [21] - The U.S. inflation data for June suggests that the third quarter will serve as a critical period for validating the effects of tariffs on inflation [24] - Domestic infrastructure projects have shown a continuous recovery, indicating a potential positive trend in construction activities [26] Group 3: Export Dynamics - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting, with emerging markets nearing the end of this phase while the U.S. begins to see a resurgence in export activities [13][14] - The importance of "strategic resources" in global trade is increasing, prompting discussions on which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]

Group 1: Export Performance - June exports showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.8%, up from 4.8%, exceeding market expectations of 3.2%[4] - Direct "export grabbing" to the U.S. was a major driver in June, with exports to the U.S. seeing a reduced year-on-year decline of -16.1%, compared to -34.5% previously[4] - Consumer goods exports to the U.S. rebounded significantly, as over 45% of U.S. imports from China are consumer products[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The "export grabbing" effect is nearing its end, leading to potential increased pressure on exports in the second half of the year[4] - Indirect trade through regions like South Korea and Latin America has begun to cool, with June's year-on-year export growth to these regions at -6.7% and -2.1% respectively[4] - The expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9 is expected to further impact export growth rates for intermediate goods[4] Group 3: Sector Insights - High-tech sectors are likely to maintain growth despite challenges, with June exports of automobiles and ships showing year-on-year increases of 8.2% and 18.6% respectively[4] - The ongoing tight supply chain connections between China, Japan, and South Korea indicate strong foreign investment in "export grabbing" activities[4]

Economic Performance - Q2 2025 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, showing resilience, supported by export growth offsetting construction sector decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 1.3% lower than the real GDP growth, indicating price level adjustments are needed[4] Industrial and Service Sector Insights - Industrial added value in June increased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.8% year-on-year, with modern service sectors showing stability[5] - The service sector's production growth was steady, with information technology services rising for five consecutive months[5] Consumer Behavior - Disposable income growth slowed to 5.4%, with operational net income being a significant drag[5] - The consumer spending rate in Q2 was 68.6%, better than the same period in 2022-2024 but still below pre-pandemic levels[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in June fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.8%, with the "trade-in" program's contribution declining[6] - By June, the progress of the "trade-in" program reached approximately 54%, with expectations for further consumer stimulus policies in the second half of 2025[6] Investment and Construction - Fixed asset investment growth slowed, with real estate investment down by 11.2% year-on-year in June[7] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 7.5%, influenced by tariff disruptions and "anti-involution" measures[7] Future Economic Outlook - The first half of 2025 exceeded GDP targets with a 5.3% growth, but Q4 may face downward pressure due to weakening investment and consumption trends[8] - The potential fading of export support and challenges in the real estate market could impact future growth rates[8] Risk Factors - Risks include potential policy changes that may not meet expectations and the possibility of an unexpected downturn in the U.S. economy[9]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports rose by 1.1%, indicating a recovery in trade dynamics despite global demand challenges [6][7] - The decline in exports to the US has narrowed, with strong demand from ASEAN and Africa contributing to overall export resilience [8] - The contribution of net exports to GDP is primarily driven by low import growth rather than high export growth, with net exports contributing nearly 40% to GDP in Q1 2025 [19][21] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant drop in June sales data, marking the largest decline since September 2024 [27][28] - The new housing starts in the first half of 2025 fell by 20.0% year-on-year, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [28] - The real estate development investment in the first half of 2025 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, indicating a continued contraction in investment sentiment among developers [29] Group 3: Banking Sector Developments - In June, new loans increased by 22,400 million yuan, exceeding expectations and indicating a recovery in credit demand [12][13] - The growth of M1 and M2 money supply in June reflects effective monetary policy and increased liquidity in the economy, with M1 growth rising to 4.6% [16] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance in 2025, driven by optimized asset-liability structures and controlled retail risks [42] Group 4: Communication Industry Updates - Nvidia announced the resumption of H20 sales in China, which is expected to alleviate the domestic chip shortage and benefit the AIDC industry chain [44] - Century Internet raised its 2025 fiscal year revenue guidance, indicating strong demand in the IDC sector and a positive outlook for the domestic AIDC industry [45] Group 5: Non-Banking Financial Sector Insights - The net profit of 25 listed securities firms is expected to increase by 78% year-on-year, driven by improved market conditions and higher trading volumes [48][50] - The brokerage business, equity self-operation, and overseas operations are key drivers of profit growth for securities firms in the first half of 2025 [50][52]

Economic Overview - In June, the actual GDP growth for Q2 was 5.2%, aligning with market expectations, while nominal GDP growth slowed by 0.7 percentage points to approximately 3.9%[1] - The industrial added value for June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.5%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industries in Q2 was 74.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating potential overcapacity[3][23] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of 2025 was 248,654 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, which was below market expectations of 3.8%[5] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, and real estate development investment fell by 11.2%[7][39] - The marginal slowdown in investment demand is attributed to concerns over medium- to long-term uncertainties following tariff adjustments[5][39] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June rose by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point decline[4][31] - The "618" shopping festival significantly supported retail sales, with e-commerce sales reaching 8,556 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year[33] - Automotive sales showed robust growth, with June retail sales increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, despite price promotions impacting overall retail revenue[36] Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, driven by a potential easing of Sino-US trade relations and risk-averse funds supporting market sentiment[2][21] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low expectations for large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2][21]

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in the previous month[11] - The decline in exports to the US narrowed, contributing 2.4 percentage points to total exports, down from 5.0 percentage points in May[20] - Exports to ASEAN and Africa showed resilience, with significant growth supporting overall export performance[4] Import Trends - Imports in June 2025 rose by 1.1% year-on-year, a recovery of 4.5 percentage points from the previous negative growth of -3.4%[11][28] - The increase in imports is primarily influenced by tariff changes, but future imports may remain low due to cyclical and tariff-related factors[28] Future Outlook - Short-term indicators suggest a potential decline in exports to the US in July, as container ship numbers have significantly decreased[29] - Long-term projections indicate a growing probability of accelerated export decline in the second half of the year due to rising US import tariffs and a cyclical downturn in global trade demand[29] - The phenomenon of "indirect export grabbing" may temporarily boost export growth, but it is expected to lead to a depletion effect on future export growth[3][29] Risks - There are risks associated with an unexpected decline in external demand and potential policy changes that could impact trade dynamics[43]