Core Viewpoint - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year in USD terms, accelerating from June's growth, driven by a shift in export focus towards non-US regions due to fluctuating US tariff policies [1][3][5]. Export Performance - China's exports to the US fell by 21.7% year-on-year, a decline that widened by 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [5]. - Exports to the EU grew by 9.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - Exports to ASEAN countries rose by 16.6%, with notable growth rates to Vietnam (27.9%), Indonesia (12.0%), and the Philippines (10.7%) [5]. - Exports to South Korea increased by 4.6%, recovering from a decline of 6.7% in the previous month [5]. Trade Dynamics - The "rush to export" and "transshipment" effects were significant contributors to the export growth in July, as companies sought to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [3][5]. - The proportion of exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 50.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% from January to July [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict increased uncertainty in the export environment for the second half of the year, with potential gradual declines in export growth [7]. - The recent drop in import growth for processing trade from 16.9% to 9.8% in July indicates potential downward pressure on future exports [7]. - The US's consideration of new tariffs on sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could further disrupt global trade [7][8]. Economic Context - The current average tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese goods is estimated at 40.4%, while Southeast Asian countries face tariffs between 19% and 20% [8]. - The US has announced a 40% transshipment tax for countries circumventing tariffs through third-party routes, increasing pressure on China's transshipment trade [8]. - Some analysts argue that China's strong export performance over the past three quarters is not solely due to "rush to export" but also reflects a recovery in global consumption and rising overseas inventory demand [8][9].

Group 1: Trade Performance - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year (in USD), up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year (in USD), recovering 3 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Overall trade data defied market consensus, showing resilient exports and stronger-than-expected imports[5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Exports to the US weakened again after a brief recovery in June, influenced by the postponement of tariffs[5] - Despite the decline in exports to the US and ASEAN, overall export growth rebounded due to increased market exploration in Europe and emerging economies[5] - Exports to the EU rose significantly, with a growth rate of 9.2% in July, indicating a shift towards European markets[7] Group 3: Import Insights - July's import growth of 4.1% was surprising, supported mainly by imports of semiconductors and machinery[8] - There was a divergence in import performance, with raw materials like iron ore and coal remaining weak, while crude oil and copper imports showed improvement[8] - The recovery in imports may be more influenced by external demand rather than domestic economic recovery[8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected due to active market expansion by domestic exporters, but import recovery may be more volatile[5] - The sustainability of export strength hinges on US demand, which is anticipated to weaken in the second half of the year[9] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings and unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions[9]

Export Data - In July 2025, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than June[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 5.5 percentage points compared to June, contributing a 3.3 percentage point downward effect on overall export growth[4] - Exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan grew by 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively, with significant increases of 1.7, 11.3, and 15.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Import Data - In July 2025, China's import value increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 3.0 percentage points from June[6] - The month-on-month import value rose by 6.2%, significantly higher than the ten-year average of 1.8%[6] - Imports from the US decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.4 percentage points compared to June[6] Future Outlook - The forecast for August indicates a potential decline in export growth to around 4.0%, with expectations of further downward pressure due to high US tariffs and weakening "export rush" effects[5] - The recent trade agreements between the US and other economies may lead to increased tariffs, further suppressing global trade and impacting China's exports negatively[5] - The import growth momentum is expected to depend on domestic demand policies, with potential support from government measures in the latter part of the year[8]

Funding Sources - Incremental funds since late April have been driven by margin financing and insurance contributions, with significant structural inflows observed since late June[1] - Northbound funds have fluctuated around a market value of CNY 2.3 trillion, with trading activity declining to approximately 6% recently, close to levels seen in early April[1] - Margin financing balance has accelerated since late June, reaching CNY 1.94 trillion by July 24, nearing the historical high of CNY 1.95 trillion from March 2025[1] Market Trends - Market style has shifted from a "barbell" structure to a broader sector expansion, with small-cap stocks showing a steeper upward trend compared to mid and large-cap stocks since mid-July[2] - The average repeat rate of leading concepts from April 7 to July 25 has remained around 16%, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in market hotspots, with rapid rotation of themes occurring every 2 to 3 trading days[2] - Overall market sentiment has improved, with increased trading volume and a more optimistic outlook for the third quarter, despite potential limitations in economic growth compared to the second quarter[2] Sector Selection Strategy - Recommended sectors for investment include those likely to benefit from upcoming policies, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors like robotics that have shown weaker prior performance[2] - Sectors that have not yet experienced significant upward movement, such as alcoholic beverages, service consumption, and real estate development, are also suggested for balanced investment strategies[2] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include delays in policy implementation, crowded funding risks as margin financing approaches previous highs, and discrepancies between estimated and actual fund positions[2]

GDP Performance - In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth was only 3.9%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand[3] - The deflator index further expanded to -1.3%, highlighting weak price levels[3] Production Insights - Industrial value-added growth was 6.8% in June, with a Q2 average of 6.4%, driven by strong exports[14] - The service sector maintained stable growth, with a cumulative production index increase of 5.9%[14] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% in Q2, down 1.4 percentage points from Q1[22] - Infrastructure investment growth was 8.9%, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of -12.9% in June, with a cumulative decline of -11.2%[24] Consumption Patterns - Retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q2, a decrease from Q1, with durable goods consumption supported by "old-for-new" policies[39] - Restaurant consumption weakened significantly, with June's growth plummeting to 0.9%[39] Outlook and Policy Recommendations - To meet the annual GDP target of 5%, a growth rate of at least 4.7% is required in the second half of the year[42] - Continued policy support is essential to boost domestic demand, particularly in real estate and manufacturing sectors[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in overseas policies[43]

Group 1: Export Performance - June export growth rate was 5.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus forecast by 2.7 percentage points[3] - Cumulative export growth for the first half of the year was 5.9%, slightly higher than last year's full-year growth of 5.8%[3] - Trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $585.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.52%, surpassing last year's growth of 20.7%[3] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.1%, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, with U.S. exports accounting for 12% of total exports[4] - Exports to ASEAN countries maintained high growth at 16.9%, with Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines showing growth rates of 23.8%, 27.9%, and 10.2% respectively[4] - Exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany's export growth slowing to 3.5%[4] Group 3: Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive product exports showed improvement, with declines narrowing to -7.1% for bags, -1.6% for textiles, and -4.0% for footwear[5] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 8.2% and 6.9% respectively, with integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships showing high growth rates of 24.2%, 23.1%, and 23.6%[5] - The contribution of mechanical products to export growth was 4.8 percentage points, while high-tech products contributed 1.6 percentage points[5] Group 4: Import Trends - Import growth returned to positive territory at 1.1%, a significant rebound of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of import growth, with rates of 6.4% and 10.0% respectively[6] - Energy product imports faced declines, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas showing decreases of -44.7%, -15.0%, and -5.9% respectively due to falling prices[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue, supported by tariff exemptions and ongoing "export grabbing" strategies[7] - However, medium to long-term pressures may build due to the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential demand exhaustion[7] - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected economic recovery abroad[8]

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, a rise of 1 percentage point compared to May[3] - Exports to the US fell by 16.1% year-on-year in June, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to overall export growth[4] - For the first half of 2025, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year[6] Import Trends - In June 2025, imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from May[7] - Imports from the US decreased by 15.5% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Cumulatively, imports in the first half of 2025 fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 6.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year[10] Market Dynamics - The reduction in US tariffs following the Geneva talks in May has led to a significant recovery in exports to the US, although tariffs remain high at approximately 41.3%[4] - The "temporary suspension" of global tariffs by the US has allowed Chinese companies to continue exporting to markets outside the US, with exports to ASEAN growing by 16.8% year-on-year in June[4] - The overall trade environment remains volatile, with expectations of a decline in export growth to around 1.0% in July due to ongoing high tariffs and weakening external demand[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. The outlook for the future is oscillating and slightly strengthening. [2][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main contract of rebar RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, with a position of 2.1269 million lots, a decrease of 103,100 lots. The main contract of hot - rolled coils HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.61031 million lots, an increase of 132,000 lots. - Spot market: This week, the spot price center of rebar moved up. As of July 17, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price center of hot - rolled coils moved down. As of July 17, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,200 yuan/ton compared with last week. [5][6] 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 16 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. [10][11][12] Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel this week was 83.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.83 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products counted by Mysteel this week was 8.6819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 tons. The effect of the "anti - involution" policy signal is gradually emerging, and the reduction of rebar and hot - rolled coils is obvious. [19] 2.2 Demand - Recently, the US government has targeted 14 countries and imposed a "tariff bomb." US President Trump posted multiple letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off - season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino - US trade friction and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. The path for the realization of the off - season logic in the future is expected to be less smooth, and the demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. [2][30] 2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country counted by Mysteel this week was 9.2211 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.1555 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,200 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 13.3766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and the steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream and continuing a certain de - stocking trend. [2][34] 2.4 Profit - This week, the price of rebar rose. The average cost of electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The increase in rebar prices in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. The average profit of steel mills was - 92 yuan/ton, and the average profit during off - peak electricity hours was 11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Some electric arc furnace steel mills have turned from losses to profits and have actively chosen to resume production or increase production time to improve production saturation. [2][47] 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billets increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,993 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 20 yuan/ton to 768 yuan/ton. [56] Summary and Investment Suggestions - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. [2][59]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and the various hidden mechanisms involved in "anti-involution" [4]. Deep Dive Topics - The "anti-involution" topic has gained traction, but there is a considerable divergence in understanding, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to misinterpretations [4]. - The article emphasizes that beyond production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, there are numerous hidden strategies associated with "anti-involution" [4]. Hot Topics - Since June, there has been a resurgence of the "golden-haired girl" trading phenomenon overseas, with domestic sentiment also heating up. The article questions which data might exceed expectations and whether the market's main narrative will shift due to the effects of tariffs [8]. - The importance of "strategic resources" has been underscored in the context of changing global trade dynamics, prompting an exploration of which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]. High-Frequency Tracking - The role of "export grabbing" is evolving, with a shift from emerging markets to the United States, indicating a change in export dynamics [13]. - Credit improvement is primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises, reflecting a trend in financial data [17]. - The June economic data reveals five significant anomalies, suggesting new changes in the economy that may be hidden [21]. - The article notes that the third quarter will serve as a verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects, with a focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [24]. - Domestic infrastructure construction has shown a continuous recovery, while industrial production remains relatively stable, although there is a divergence in the construction sector and a slowdown in real estate transactions [26]. - The expiration of tariff exemptions has led to declines in most developed markets, indicating a potential impact on international trade dynamics [29].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms [4] Group 1: Deep Dive on "Anti-Involution" - The market's understanding of "anti-involution" is largely misaligned, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to incorrect conclusions [4] - Besides production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, "anti-involution" encompasses various "hidden strategies" that are not widely recognized [4] Group 2: Economic Trends and Data Analysis - Recent economic data from June reveals five notable anomalies, indicating new changes in the economy that may not be immediately apparent [21] - The U.S. inflation data for June suggests that the third quarter will serve as a critical period for validating the effects of tariffs on inflation [24] - Domestic infrastructure projects have shown a continuous recovery, indicating a potential positive trend in construction activities [26] Group 3: Export Dynamics - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting, with emerging markets nearing the end of this phase while the U.S. begins to see a resurgence in export activities [13][14] - The importance of "strategic resources" in global trade is increasing, prompting discussions on which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]