Group 1 - The A-share market has shown weak performance recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 1.1% on December 16, marking a cumulative decline of 2.5% over the past six trading days [2] - The market is experiencing a broad decline, with over 4,000 listed companies falling, while the trading volume on December 16 was 1.75 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [2] - The sectors performing well include retail, beauty care, and social services, while telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment saw the largest declines [2] Group 2 - Both internal and external factors have contributed to a temporary decline in market risk appetite, with external factors playing a dominant role. The recent FOMC meeting indicated a neutral to hawkish stance, with expectations of only one rate cut by 2026, raising concerns about liquidity [3] - Domestic economic data for November showed a continued slowdown compared to October, with significant declines in fixed asset investment and retail consumption growth, leading to increased market focus on fundamental data [3] Group 3 - The underlying logic for market growth remains intact, with a positive mid-term trend expected through 2026. The macro policy shift since last year has changed investor sentiment, providing a stable foundation for market recovery [4] - The fundamental drivers of the current market rally include the restructuring of the international monetary order and advancements in industrial innovation, both of which have not been disrupted [4] Group 4 - The current market pullback may offer good positioning opportunities for the first half of 2026, as overall valuations in the A-share market remain attractive compared to global peers and major asset classes [5] - Suggested investment strategies include focusing on growth styles during market corrections, with three main lines of focus: 1) sectors experiencing growth such as AI technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, 2) companies benefiting from overseas expansion, and 3) cyclical sectors nearing improvement points [5][6]

Core Viewpoints - The ongoing expansion of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan since 2022 has led to an increase in the scale of yen carry trades, raising concerns about potential market impacts due to the reversal of these trades [4][5]. Group 1: Yen Carry Trade Activity - The activity level of yen carry trades can be observed through both on-balance and off-balance sheet banking operations. On-balance sheet metrics include the volume of yen-denominated loans issued by global banks and the scale of internal accounts held by foreign banks in Japan. Off-balance sheet observations can be made through the foreign exchange swap market, particularly by monitoring the net short positions in non-commercial yen futures [5]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decisions - The probability of the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in the December meeting is considered high. This is attributed to two main factors: the rapid depreciation of the yen could exert inflationary pressure domestically, and there are expectations of higher wage growth in Japan next year, which poses a risk of a "wage-inflation" spiral [6]. Group 3: Impact of Current Carry Trades on Financial Markets - The current impact of carry trades on financial markets is expected to be less significant than in 2024. The scale of current carry trades is only 40% of the levels seen in July 2024. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment in the US does not indicate a recession risk, which reduces the likelihood of unexpected scenarios leading to accelerated unwinding of carry trades. Furthermore, the potential for an increase in Japan's policy rate is limited, and the sentiment towards the yen is not concentrated, suggesting that any appreciation of the yen will have a minimal market impact. The conflicting goals of Japan's large-scale fiscal stimulus and the central bank's inflation control measures may lead to further selling pressure on Japanese government bonds [7].

浙商证券的报告中梳理了当下与上一次加息三个的不同点。一是截至10月21日衍生品市场头寸做多日元，和24 年7月大规模做空日元的交易方向相反。截至2025年10月21日，日元投机性净多头头寸升至70414张，多头处于 历史高位，而2024年7月9日日元投机性净空头头寸182033张，为历史空头最高位。二是市场预期已充分定价日 央行12月加息，截至12月4日，隔夜指数掉期数据显示市场对日央行12月加息的预期概率高达91.5%，而2024 年7月22日，市场预期7月31日日央行加息概率仅为37.6%。三是2024年7月的套息交易逆转还叠加了美国非农 就业数据大幅不及预期所引发的恐慌，而当前市场对11月美国失业率预期为4.4%，未触发衰退预警。 中金公司的观点类似，一方面，从套息交易的角度而言，当前不同方式测算下的套息交易规模均并不算大。另 一方面，本轮日央行放鹰并没有大幅超预期，日本央行此前对加息已有较多铺垫，市场对2025年12月央行加息 预期的抬升是相对缓慢的，且已逐渐靠近25bp，即已接近完全定价12月将加息一次（25bp）。 超级央行周即将开启！ 本周四（12月18日），英国、欧洲央行将公布利率决议；周五， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, experienced significant declines due to rumors regarding tax recognition for high-tech companies, leading to a market reaction despite the lack of official confirmation [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On December 16, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2.5%, with major stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, and Meituan seeing increased losses [3][4]. - Individual stocks such as SenseTime dropped over 6%, and XPeng fell over 4%, while Alibaba and others experienced declines exceeding 3% [3][4]. - Alibaba's warrants saw a drastic drop, with some experiencing declines of over 85% [3]. Group 2: External Factors - External liquidity conditions have changed significantly, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates and the Bank of Japan's rate hikes, which have collectively impacted the Hong Kong market [4][6]. - The overall liquidity pressure in the banking system remains a concern, as indicated by comments from Federal Reserve officials [4]. Group 3: Tax Recognition Rumors - There are indications from brokerage analysts that the tightening of tax recognition for high-tech companies is not a blanket approach but rather a more stringent assessment [6]. - The market's pricing of these rumors reflects a one-time adjustment, with potential for a rebound if the situation reverses [1]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The current market conditions differ from the asset sell-off experienced in August last year, as the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [7]. - Analysts suggest that while there are risks ahead, the immediate impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike may be limited compared to previous instances [6][7].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货 市场分析师 张驰宁 投资咨询证号 Z0020302 最近A股反复震荡的行情着实磨人，更令人不安的是，市场几次在整理中突然大幅下探，搅得人心惶 惶。投资者进退两难：砍仓怕割在地板上，不砍又担心陷入连续阴跌。市场涨涨跌跌如同过山车，总是 缓步攀升后急促下跌，方向难辨，把许多忠实股民折腾得焦虑不已。 那么此时此刻，最需要做的，是对行情有一个明确的分析思路，当下和未来看些什么，哪些变化可能会 决定大A的走向，提前给每一次爬升和陡坡做好准备，自然在行情应对的时候就能更加得心应手。 【技术上最近的表现】 首先，我们来看一看上证指数目前的盘面表现：上证指数自11月21日以向下跳空缺口发出首个技术转弱 信号后，虽于12月8日反抽尝试回补缺口，但最终承压回落。此后指数持续走低，并于今日再度收阴， 跌破一个月前形成的低点。 数据来源：同花顺期货通 【"拉动经济的三驾马车"当下怎么样？】 1、投资： 数据来源：国家统计局 最新一期固定资产投资数据，当前延续了下降的过程，且似乎降幅在继续扩大，从细节来看，第一、第 二产业投的钱其实还在增加，问题主要出在第 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 亚太股市惨烈杀跌！ 12月16日早盘，权益类资产集体杀跌。日经指数跌超1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数大跌超1.7%。A股和港股也 受到了冲击，A股三大指数均跌超1%，军工、商业航天、光伏风电、影视等板块跌幅居前，沪深北三 市下跌个股超4500只。 那么，究竟有何不利消息？分析人士认为，从全球的角度来看，最大的变数可能来自日本央行加息。据 日经中文网消息，日本央行12月18日—19日将召开金融政策决定会议，上调目前为0.5%的政策利率。 最可能的方案是加息0.25%至0.75%。另外，日本央行最早将于1月开始出售ETF持仓。虽然外界认为， 套息交易规模已经小于去年，但若加上最近AI交易的退潮，冲击可能也不容小视。 惨烈杀跌 12月16日早盘，MSCI亚太指数下跌1%。日经指数跌超1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数大跌超1.7%。港股三大指 数亦是全线杀跌，恒生科技指数再度大跌近1.7%。富时中国A50指数期货跌幅也扩大至1%。 A股市场，几乎是全线下跌。平均股价跌超1%，并再度破位。A股三大指数早盘低开后持续调整，跌幅 皆超1%，板块方面，影视院 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, primarily driven by the anticipated interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which is expected to impact global market sentiment and risk appetite [1][5]. Market Performance - On December 16, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 1%, with the Nikkei index dropping over 1.3% and the KOSPI index declining more than 1.7% [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced a downturn, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling nearly 1.7% [3]. - In the A-share market, all major indices dropped over 1%, with more than 4,500 stocks declining, particularly in sectors such as film and television, precious metals, military industry, and commercial aerospace [3][5]. Key Economic Factors - The primary uncertainty in the market is attributed to the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, where a rate hike from the current 0.5% is expected, potentially reaching 0.75% [5]. - This would mark the highest interest rate level in 30 years since 1995, with indications that over half of the policy committee members support this move [5]. - The anticipated rate hike is seen as a response to the weakening yen and may have implications for the Hong Kong market, which has been underperforming partly due to reduced yen carry trade activities [5]. Broader Market Sentiment - The article notes that major markets, including the US, are at historically high valuations, and the recent retreat in AI trading has led to a decline in risk appetite [6]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to consider quantitative easing (QE) amidst rising stock prices could exacerbate market bubbles, suggesting a need for a rational correction [6].

日本央行本周18-19日召开12月议息会议，市场普遍预期加息25个基点，但表态偏"鸽"概率较高。行长 植田和男此前释放加息铺垫信号，叠加12月8日日本10年期国债收益率创18年半新高，市场对其后续加 息预期强烈，为日元提供显著支撑。 12月16日(周二)美元兑日元报154.90，较前一交易日下跌0.34(跌幅-0.1997%)，呈震荡走弱态势。当日最 高155.26、最低154.71，开盘155.24与昨收持平。此前纽约尾盘已录得0.36%跌幅，短期市场在日本央行 决议前夕交投谨慎，波动幅度略有扩大。 美联储12月10日完成年内第三次降息(联邦基金利率区间3.5%-3.75%)，会议出现3票反对创近年新高， 政策分歧加剧。鲍威尔表态谨慎未释放2026年降息指引，市场对其明年降息预期降温，一定程度限制美 元兑日元下行空间。 日本经济数据表现疲软，2025年三季度实际GDP修正值年化降幅下修至2.3%，主因企业与公共投资下 滑；仅个人消费增长上调至0.2%，缓解部分下行压力。市场聚焦日本央行会议结果，同时需关注美国 对华汽车关税对日本出口的冲击。 美国今日将公布11月核心PCE(美联储核心通胀指标)，本周还将落地 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美联储重启扩表 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩张。高盛分析师警告，当前 拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与2008年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。美国发布新版《国家安全 战略》，放弃全球霸权，将调整与中国的经济关系，重振美国经济自主地位。美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分 化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。高盛指出美联储会议最大看点是鲍威尔 承认非农就业存在"系统性高估"。目前官方数据每月或虚高6万人，实际就业市场可能已陷入"月减2万"的负 增长泥潭。机构预计失业率上升将倒逼降息，市场正在押注更激进宽松。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、工业金属等大类资产产生 颠覆式深远影响。鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济正在越过顶部区域 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting, which contrasts with the easing policies of other major economies, raising concerns about macro liquidity tightening. However, the short-term impact of this meeting is anticipated to be limited [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy and Inflation - Japan's monetary policy has been misaligned with other major economies, leading to a significant interest rate differential, which peaked at nearly 560 basis points in 2023, contributing to the depreciation of the yen [2]. - The depreciation of the yen has increased inflationary pressures in Japan, necessitating a response from the Bank of Japan. The core CPI has remained above 2% since 2022, indicating the end of the deflationary era [3]. - The current fiscal reality, with Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%, limits the space for interest rate increases. The average interest payment ratio is beginning to rise, indicating a reduced tolerance for higher rates [3]. Group 2: Future Rate Hikes and Economic Outlook - The expected path for interest rate increases in Japan is gradual, with projections suggesting a rise from 0.5% to around 1% over the next 1-2 years. A more significant increase would require stronger economic growth and nominal income [4]. - The anticipated interest rate environment is characterized by a "misalignment" where the U.S. is expected to lower rates while Japan raises them, leading to a compression of the interest rate differential [5]. Group 3: Yen Carry Trade Dynamics - The yen carry trade is structured in layers, with the top layer consisting of short-term speculative positions, the middle layer involving significant leveraged positions in high-yield assets, and the bottom layer comprising long-term Japanese overseas asset holdings [7]. - The middle layer of high-leverage positions is most susceptible to market shocks, while the bottom layer is more stable and less likely to trigger immediate sell-offs [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Long-term Implications - The potential for a liquidity shock exists if the Bank of Japan's rate hikes are more aggressive than expected, particularly if accompanied by a weakening U.S. economy leading to rapid Fed rate cuts [9]. - Current macro conditions do not fully support a liquidity crisis, as the market has already adjusted to the anticipated rate hikes, and the concentration of high-leverage positions has decreased significantly [10]. - In the long term, the global capital flow direction may change, impacting the carry trade logic and leading to a potential revaluation of global duration assets [11].