1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and concludes that iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range oscillations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate around the cost line with wide - range oscillations; logs are in repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of iron ore contract 12601 is 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94% from the previous day, with a position of 574,521 hands, an increase of 40,992 hands. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore in the spot market generally rose slightly. The basis for contract 12601 against Super Special ore increased by 2.4 yuan to 134.3 yuan [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of rebar contract RB2601 is 3,172 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.73%, with a trading volume of 1,250,591 hands and a position of 1,970,510 hands, a decrease of 29,174 hands. The futures price of hot - rolled coil contract HC2601 is 3,374 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 459,672 hands and a position of 1,413,153 hands, an increase of 829 hands. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease [7]. - **News**: On September 18, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.35 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.78 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 5.13 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 11.96 tons, hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 4.34 tons, and the total demand of five major varieties increased by 7 tons. In August 2025, the national crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of ferrosilicon contract 2511 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The futures price of silicomanganese contract 2511 is 5,930 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,964 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia are 5,350 yuan/ton and 5,730 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **News**: On September 19, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed, and the prices of silicon - manganese 6517 in the north and south were reported. As of September 19, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 241,500 tons [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of coking coal contract JM2601 is 1,232 yuan/ton, up 28.5 yuan or 2.4%, with a trading volume of 1,078,119 hands and a position of 723,291 hands, a decrease of 1,081 hands. The futures price of coke contract J2601 is 1,738.5 yuan/ton, up 29.5 yuan or 1.7%, with a trading volume of 23,627 hands and a position of 45,788 hands, a decrease of 644 hands. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained stable, while some changed slightly [15]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 802 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day and 0.1% week - on - week; the trading volume is 5,117 hands, a decrease of 18.9% from the previous day and 43% week - on - week; the position is 13,421 hands, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous day and 15% week - on - week. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market in Shandong and Jiangsu remained mostly stable [18]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is slow, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to be stable in the medium - term, demand is gradually recovering, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [6][8][10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost support and inventory levels affecting the market [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease. The inventory of polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy ingots is at different levels, with silicone and aluminum alloy ingots at high levels [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season, with a production loss of 3237 yuan/ton for sample oxygen - passing 553 [6]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 195 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased, which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule is increasing, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035 [8]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase. The demand side shows that the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different changes, and the current production of silicon wafers is in a loss state [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Although the production is increasing, it is currently in a loss state [10]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 605 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase, at a low level in the same period, which is neutral [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule will decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is stable. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Inventory increased, and production and some regions' operating rates also changed [16]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed, and the export of photovoltaic cells increased [18]. 3.4 Price and Basis Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [20]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the trends of the disk price and the basis of the main contract [23]. 3.5 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory in various regions and warehouses increased. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also changed [16][26][28]. - **Polysilicon**: The total inventory increased, and the production and operating rates of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [10][18]. 3.6 Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry is shown [62]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon [65]. 3.8 Downstream Market Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Analyzes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [52][55][57]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and related accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry [62][68][71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has no obvious upward or downward drivers, and range trading is recommended [2][4]. - For soybean oil, exports have reappeared, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2][4]. - Soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation and may rebound from oversold conditions [2][8]. - Soybean No.1 is in a low - level oscillation [2][8]. - Corn is in an oscillatory operation [2][11]. - Sugar is oscillating downward [2][15]. - The market is concerned about the listing of new cotton [2][20]. - Egg spot prices are weak [2][24]. - The expectation for hogs has turned pessimistic, and the trends of basis and spreads are confirmed [2][26]. - Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][31]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,304 yuan/ton with a - 1.27% change, and night - session closing price was 9,342 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,284 yuan/ton with a - 0.98% change, and night - session closing price was 8,346 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: IGC expects the 2025/26 global soybean production to be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons; USDA shows about 36% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of September 16; CONAB predicts a 3.6% increase in Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2511's day - session closing price was 3904 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and night - session closing price was 3898 yuan/ton with a + 0.15% change; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session closing price was 2993 yuan/ton with a - 0.86% change, and night - session closing price was 2992 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 18, CBOT soybeans fell due to harvest pressure and a stronger dollar; as of September 11, 2025/26 US soybean net sales were 923,000 tons [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean No.1 trend intensities are both 0 [10]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's day - session closing price was 2,177 yuan/ton with a 0.65% change, and night - session closing price was 2,171 yuan/ton with a - 0.28% change; C2601's day - session closing price was 2,164 yuan/ton with a 0.42% change, and night - session closing price was 2,163 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some container prices in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [14]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 15.41 cents/pound with a - 0.1 change; the mainstream spot price was 5930 yuan/ton with a - 10 change; the futures main - contract price was 5474 yuan/ton with a - 55 change [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points; Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year; Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [18]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,765 yuan/ton with a - 0.90% change, and night - session closing price was 13715 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change; CY2511's day - session closing price was 19,765 yuan/ton with a - 0.73% change, and night - session closing price was 19745 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the market was waiting for new cotton; ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to a stronger dollar [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [23]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,043 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.65% change; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,418 yuan/500 kilograms with a 1.27% change [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [24]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price was 12930 yuan/ton with a - 50 change; Sichuan's spot price was 12550 yuan/ton with a - 250 change; Guangdong's spot price was 13560 yuan/ton with a - 400 change; Hog 2511's price was 12830 yuan/ton with a - 170 change [27]. - **Market Logic**: Group supplies have significantly decreased, but weights have increased again, and the spread between fat and lean prices has weakened; the market pressure is emerging, and the spot price center will move down [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 2 [28]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with no change; PK510's closing price was 7,844 yuan/ton with a 0.33% change; PK511's closing price was 7,858 yuan/ton with a 0.61% change [31]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply of dry peanuts is limited due to weather, and the market is generally stable [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [33].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash industry contradictions have eased in the short - term, but the supply still exceeds demand. The market is expected to have an oscillating and upward - trending price, and attention should be paid to macro changes [8]. - Glass futures' main contract is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short - term [10]. Group 4: Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On September 18, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash had an oscillating and weak price, with a closing price of 1306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton and a decline of 2.02%, and an increase of 52,381 lots in positions [7]. - Fundamentally, weekly production decreased to 745,700 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decline. Factory inventories decreased to 1.7556 million tons, 41,900 tons less than last Thursday. Total shipments reached 787,600 tons, a 0.25% week - on - week increase, and the overall shipment rate was 105.62%, a 2.39 - percentage - point increase [8]. - Macroscopically, there is no new policy information to ease the involution, and the possibility of policy implementation in the short - term is low. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the market price is stimulated by the warming macro - sentiment, the approaching peak season, and the anti - involution expectation [8]. Glass - Fundamentally, the overall glass production showed a slight upward trend but remained at a low level. Spot prices rose, improving industry profits. Deep - processing orders remained stable, mainly driven by rigid demand, and inventory started to accumulate again [9]. - For float glass, supply - side pressure has marginally eased, with some cost support, but demand is weak. New - house glass demand is declining, while automobile and home - appliance production supports glass demand. Photovoltaic glass has seen a significant price increase due to strong demand [9][10]. - Macroscopically, with the boost of peak - season demand and the strengthening of anti - involution expectations, the main glass futures contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [10]. Group 5: Data Overview - Provided figures include the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [12][14][17]

Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to maintain strong consolidation around 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the domestic supply is abundant, and the spot basis quote may rise as soybean supply decreases [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Oil**: On September 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,690 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,366 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 33.88%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by about 10,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. The basis of P2601 increased by 131.71%. The import cost increased by 1.03%, and the import profit decreased by 79.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade - 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The futures price of O1601 was down 0.54%. The basis of O1601 increased by 1485.71% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased. The soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread showed different trends [1]. Group 2: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price may fluctuate weakly, with strong support around 2,150 yuan/ton. In the medium - term, it will remain weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased, and the basis decreased by 10.42%. The 11 - 3 spread decreased by 150.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 51.28%, and the import profit increased by 0.82% [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.41%. The basis decreased by 8.55%. The starch - corn spread increased by 5.42% [2]. Group 3: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market has现货 pressure, and the futures price may stabilize around 5,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 2.33%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 17.39%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 0.67%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 2.48% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Guosan and Kunming decreased. The Nanning basis decreased by 1.64%, and the Kunming basis increased by 2.64%. The import prices of Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar in the country increased year - on - year. The production and cumulative sales rate in Guangxi also increased, while the monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased. The industrial inventory in the country increased, and the import volume increased significantly [6]. Group 4: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and they will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.72%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%. The position of the主力 contract decreased by 0.27%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 3.03% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly. The difference between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 6.75% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories decreased. The import volume increased, and the export volume of textile products showed different trends. The downstream finished product inventory was still decreasing, but the shipment slowed down [8]. Group 5: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The supply - demand situation of US soybeans is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The domestic supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be sufficient, but there is uncertainty in the supply from January to February next year. Attention should be paid to the support of the 01 contract around 3,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.65%, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 1.28%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 100.00%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in November increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.91%, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 2.30%. The basis of RM2601 increased by 7.84%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [10]. - **Soybeans**: The prices of domestic and imported soybeans were stable or decreased slightly. The bases of the first and second - grade soybean contracts increased [10]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The oil - meal ratio and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal showed different trends [10]. Group 6: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The spot price of pigs lacks support. The near - month futures contracts will maintain a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2511 and 2601 decreased. The 11 - 1 spread increased by 1.92%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 10.86% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.40%, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.65% [12]. - **Other Indicators**: The self - breeding profit decreased by 68.02%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 28.27%. The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [12][15]. Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 0.10%, and the price of the 10 - contract decreased by 1.00%. The 11 - 10 spread increased by 147.83% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 0.89% [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings decreased by 13.33%, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 0.22%. The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.88%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.84% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's overall view on PVC investment is bearish [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4944 - 5002 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2516.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Basis - On September 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 123 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. This is bearish [9]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9]. 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. This is neutral [9]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. This is bearish [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the PVC market on the previous day, including prices, spreads, operating rates, and inventory data of different types and regions [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [17][20][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [38][40]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of downstream products such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also analyzes real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [42][45][49][52]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [53]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads [55]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [59].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of the "Silver Insurance + Futures" project in the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on the benefits it brings to the North Anshi Modern Agricultural Machinery Cooperative in stabilizing income and managing risks associated with crop production and sales [1][8]. Group 1: Project Implementation and Impact - The "Silver Insurance + Futures" project has expanded its coverage from 75,000 acres in 2023 to 100,000 acres in 2024, with a total premium of 4.6512 million yuan, of which 50% is subsidized by the Dalian Commodity Exchange [4]. - The project has effectively guaranteed farmers' operating income, with a total compensation of 4.5188 million yuan and over 13,800 tons of orders acquired [4][7]. - The cooperative has successfully utilized the project to secure loans, with 3.7 million acres insured and loans amounting to 3.4 million yuan for one cooperative and 9.2 million yuan for another, exceeding the maximum credit limit of 2 million yuan for large agricultural operators [4][8]. Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The cooperative faced significant challenges in 2013 and 2019 due to adverse weather conditions, leading to substantial losses, which underscored the importance of risk management tools like the "Silver Insurance + Futures" project [2][3]. - The project has provided a dual guarantee of income through insurance and forward purchase orders, enhancing the security of bank loans and ensuring a stable supply of grain for purchasing enterprises [8][9]. - The cooperative's participation in the project has allowed it to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating market prices and adverse weather, ensuring a basic level of income even in challenging years [7][9]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Expansion - The cooperative has expanded its planting area to over 100,000 acres and plans to continue participating in the "Silver Insurance + Futures" project, which has now included corn as an insurable crop [9]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has extended the secondary pricing period from 2 months to 6 months to better align with farmers' selling habits and market volatility [8][9]. - The cooperative's leader expresses optimism about the future, highlighting the increasing reliance on futures and insurance for agricultural development [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are expected to follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weakening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The prices of short - fiber contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 increased by 16, 18, and 34 respectively compared to the previous day. The price differences PF10 - 11 and PF11 - 12 decreased by 2 and 16 respectively. The short - fiber basis decreased by 18. The short - fiber main contract's trading volume increased by 2925, and the open interest increased by 10978. The short - fiber spot price in East China remained unchanged at 6.470, and the sales - to - production ratio increased by 1% to 64% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The prices of bottle - chip contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 increased by 14, 14, and 8 respectively compared to the previous day. The price difference PR10 - 11 remained unchanged, and PR11 - 12 increased by 6. The main contract's open interest decreased by 37, and the trading volume decreased by 3389. The bottle - chip spot price in East China increased by 20 to 5850, and the spot price in South China remained unchanged at 5890 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber futures followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The factory's spot price remained stable, and the discounts for futures - cash and traders narrowed, with less trading volume. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was 6400 - 6700. As of 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 64% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The upstream polyester raw material futures rose and then fell. The polyester bottle - chip factory's quotes were mostly stable. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average. The orders from September to November were mostly traded at 5800 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some slightly lower at around 5760 yuan/ton ex - factory and some slightly higher at 5940 - 5960 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime main contract price fluctuations was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The port inventory pressure of methanol remains high, but after the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing, the port basis has slightly bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory accumulation rate may slow down, but the arrival pressure is still large, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [2] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol start - up in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month; the inventory of inland methanol factories is still low, and the overall situation is that the inland is stronger than the port. The port back - to - inland window is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The figures in this part cover the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][27][31] III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - The figures present the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P start - up rate (including integration), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integration) [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - The figures display the price differences between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, Taicang - Lunan, etc [39][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The figures include the production gross profit of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][56][58]

Group 1 - Recent low port inventory of ethylene glycol (EG) has led to a strong basis overall, with domestic EG load increasing while maintaining low port inventory levels [2] - The strong reality in the market is contrasted by weak expectations, as high overseas operating rates and anticipated increases in port arrivals are expected to weaken the market balance in Q4 [4] - The polyester industry is entering a peak season, but the degree of improvement is weaker than expected, with high operating rates and good inventory and profit conditions, yet weak terminal performance suppresses raw material valuations [12] Group 2 - New production capacities are being added, including 30,000 tons from Sinochem in Inner Mongolia and 80,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong, expected to come online in 2024 and 2025 respectively [10] - The market is at a turning point in supply-demand structure, with previous strong conditions unlikely to break through pre-trade conflict price levels, suggesting a potential decline in valuations [12] - Recommendations suggest a strategy of shorting on highs while being cautious of the extent to which weak expectations may not materialize, as well as the risk of a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness [12]