Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: No specific rating mentioned but market shows strength [2] - Polyethylene and Polypropylene: No specific rating mentioned, mixed signals in market [2] - PX and PTA: Positive in the first half of the year, but with inventory concerns around the Spring Festival [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Potential for short - term improvement in the second quarter, long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre: Price follows raw materials, weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip: Consider spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure [3] - Pure Benzene: Short - term uncertainty, potential downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene: Short - term price pressure [5] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline slowly [6] - Urea: Price fluctuates within a range [6] - PVC: Monitor export and cost factors, inventory pressure exists [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak reality, potential for production cut, profit compression [7] - Soda Ash: High - altitude shorting strategy, long - term oversupply pressure [8] - Glass: Seasonal inventory build - up expected, follow macro sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, cost changes, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal factors. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities, with some facing short - term uncertainties and others having long - term capacity pressures [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with low enterprise inventory and increased buying due to strong futures and downstream restocking [2] - Polyethylene has supply pressure and decreasing demand, while polypropylene has cost support and reduced inventory pressure but weak new orders [2] Polyester - PX and PTA may be bullish in the first half, but inventory may accumulate around the Spring Festival. Consider positive spreads in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol may improve in the second quarter but is under long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre price follows raw materials with weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip may have spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure exists [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene price is strong but may face downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term, with medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline [6] - Urea price fluctuates within a range due to demand and supply factors [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC has inventory pressure, and its price is affected by exports and costs [7] - Caustic Soda has high inventory and profit compression, with potential for production cuts [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash has inventory pressure and long - term oversupply, use a high - altitude shorting strategy [8] - Glass may have seasonal inventory build - up and follow macro sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

2026 年 01 月 27 日 【趋势强度】 短纤：短期趋势偏强 20260127 瓶片：短期趋势偏强 20260127 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6828 | 6778 | 50 | PF02-03 | 2 | ন | 6 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6826 | 6782 | 44 | PF03-04 | -50 | ウイ | -144 | | | 短纤2604 | 6876 | ୧୧୫୫ | 188 | PF主力基差 | -96 | -152 | 56 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 189740 | 174102 | 15638 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.730 | 6.630 | 100 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 193912 | 190049 | 3863 | 短纤产销率 | 57% | 11 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for soybean oil futures has increased by over 3%, currently priced at 9266 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - biased manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong - biased [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex rubber. However, Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are positive, and December's heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Due to the increasing bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai Rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have tightened recently, driving up its price significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber. The upward oscillation of international crude oil has supported the high price of naphtha, rigidly raising the cost and laying a foundation for the futures price. The operating rate of butadiene plants has dropped to 72%, while the operating rate of downstream rubber plants remains at a high level of 78%, strengthening the expectation of cost increase. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern provides important support. In addition, the natural rubber in Southeast Asia has entered the production - reducing season, and the price difference between Shanghai Rubber standard rubber and synthetic rubber has widened significantly, indirectly supporting the upward shift of the synthetic rubber price center. The domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a strong - biased stance on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the spot price of eggs is strong during the pre - holiday peak season [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2602 is 3,031 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.88%, a trading volume change of - 605, and a position change of - 5,157. The closing price of egg2603 is 3,046 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a trading volume change of 6,476, and a position change of - 3,830 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 2 - 3 spread is - 15 (previous day: - 1), and the egg 3 - 9 spread is - 885 (previous day: - 865) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.80 yuan/jin, 3.56 yuan/jin, 3.90 yuan/jin, and 3.80 yuan/jin respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - **Feed and Related Product Prices**: The latest corn spot price is 2,375 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 3,080 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.28 yuan/kg, all showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber price continued to rebound on Thursday. With domestic production areas in the off - season and Thailand's northeastern areas expected to stop tapping in January while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. The short - term supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalog Futures Market - RU, NR, and BR futures prices all rose, with increases of 105 (0.67%), 120 (0.95%), and 355 (2.98%) respectively. The trading volume of RU, NR, and BR was 182,370, 48,300, and 182,757 respectively. The open interest of RU increased by 355, NR decreased by 1231, and BR increased by 10 [2] - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3115, 3580, and 465 respectively, with changes of - 15, - 250, and - 235 compared to the previous values [2] - The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke sheet - RU were - 350, - 1135, and 2350 respectively, with changes compared to the previous values [2] Spot Market - The prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming, as well as smoke sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai, and mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2] - The prices of Thai smoke sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex also remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The risk preference of LLDPE continues to spill over, and the basis weakens significantly. The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, the mid - stream order placement improves, but the basis weakens. The downstream product profit is compressed, resisting high prices. The external quotation rises, and the long - term import profit is opened. The raw material end oil price strengthens, the ethylene monomer weakens, and the PE process profit is repaired. The supply side has new capacity trial - production and the maintenance plan decreases, and there is supply - demand pressure in the medium term[1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6814, with a daily increase of 2.22%. The trading volume is 567,632, and the position changes by 11,162[1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract is - 164 (previous day: - 146), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 31 (previous day: - 28)[1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot price in North China is 6650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6520), in East China is 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6650), and in South China is 6750 yuan/ton (previous day: 6700)[1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, and the mid - stream order placement improves again. The production of standard products continues to rise, the trading volume weakens significantly, and the basis weakens sharply. The downstream product profit is compressed and resists high prices. The external quotation rises, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is opened, and the importer's trading volume increases. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the US dollar market to run strongly[1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end oil price strengthens, the Middle East geopolitical risk is not released, the ethylene monomer link weakens, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are repaired. The PE futures market continues to rebound, the trading volume is mostly concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising price to replenish goods. The downstream agricultural film is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but after the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, the factory inventory decreases slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial - production, the maintenance plan in January decreases month - on - month, some FD switches back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory capacity and weakening demand in the medium term still needs to be concerned[2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1[3]

Core Viewpoint - Palladium futures increased by 1% on January 23, currently priced at $1,950 per ounce [1] Group 1 - Palladium futures experienced a daily rise of 1% [1] - The current market price for palladium is reported at $1,950 per ounce [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry News - BHP Billiton reported record-high iron ore production in the first half of the year and accepted a partial price cut in annual contract negotiations with China [1] - On January 19, an explosion occurred at a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking department of Baotou Steel Plate Factory, affecting the production of the plate mill and surrounding production lines [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] 2. Futures Market Data 2.1 Price and Trading Volume - RB2605 closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.35%), with a trading volume of 633,661 lots and an open interest of 1,742,258 lots, an increase of 1,023 lots [2] - HC2605 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 335,123 lots and an open interest of 1,449,160 lots, a decrease of 36,985 lots [2] 2.2 Spot Price - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [2] - The spot price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou remained unchanged, while the price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Tangshan steel billets remained unchanged at 2,930 yuan/ton [2] 2.3 Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -16 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 increased by 3 yuan/ton to -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 remained unchanged at -19 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between HC2605 and RB2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to 169 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2610 and RB2610 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 143 yuan/ton [2] 3. Weekly Data 3.1 Production - On January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 0.62 tons [4] 3.2 Inventory - Rebar inventory decreased by 0.04 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 tons [4] 3.3 Apparent Demand - Rebar apparent demand increased by 14.44 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 5.55 tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 27.5 tons [4] 4. Import and Export Data 4.1 December 2025 - China imported 51.7 million tons of steel in December 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons (4.2%), with an average price of 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton (11.0%) [4] - From January to December, China imported 605.9 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) [4] 4.2 October 2025 - China imported 50.3 million tons of steel in October 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%), with an average price of 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%) [4] - From January to October, China imported 504.1 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 68.0 million tons (11.9%) [4] 5. Production and Inventory of Key Steel Enterprises 5.1 December 2025 - In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1,807 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.0% [4] - They produced 1,837 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.670 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [4] - They produced 2,081 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.892 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [4] 5.2 Social Inventory - In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27 million tons (3.6%), a decrease of 112 million tons (13.4%) compared with late November, and an increase of 62 million tons (9.4%) compared with the same period last year [4] 5.3 Enterprise Inventory - In late December, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,414 million tons, a decrease of 187 million tons (11.7%) compared with the previous ten days, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the beginning of the year, a decrease of 14 million tons (1.0%) compared with the same period last month, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 178 million tons (14.4%) compared with the same period the year before last [4] 6. Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar is 0, and the trend strength of hot-rolled coil is 0 [4]