Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Supply: PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance nears its peak. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year may impact the market [2]. - Demand: Demand has improved with increased downstream开工率, but the peak season for agricultural film is approaching, and demand is expected to decline [2]. - Strategy: The 01 contract faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may present long - term low - buying opportunities. A reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended [2]. Methanol Industry - Supply: The port methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory, postponed Iranian gas restrictions, and increased imports. The restart of domestic devices and overseas device shutdowns also affect the supply [5][6]. - Demand: Multiple MTO units reduced their loads due to profit issues, and subsequent maintenance is expected to increase [6]. - Strategy: The 01 contract will continue to trade the "weak reality" logic until Iranian gas restrictions take effect [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is stable despite some plant maintenance, and demand has support in the short term. However, the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and oil price support is limited. Strategies include reducing long positions above 6600 and short - selling on rallies, and narrowing the PX - SC spread [9]. - PTA: There are many planned maintenance in November, and demand is relatively high. But supply - demand is slightly loose, and oil price support is weak. Strategies include reducing long positions above 4600, short - selling on rallies, and a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Overseas supply is high in November, and inventory accumulation is expected. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and a reverse spread for EG1 - 5 [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply is high in the short term, but demand may decline seasonally. Cost support is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA, and narrowing the processing margin on rallies [9]. - Bottle - chip: Supply changes little, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price follows the cost. Strategies are similar to PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply is expected to be loose with many device restarts and new capacity. Demand support is limited as downstream products are mostly in losses. Inventory in East China ports is increasing. Strategies include short - selling on rallies following oil price movements [10]. - Styrene: Supply may slightly decrease, and demand is expected to remain stable. Cost support is weakening. The market is currently in a loose supply - demand situation, and the price drive is limited. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for the EB12 contract [10]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Supply is expected to increase in November with few maintenance enterprises. Demand support is weak as the alumina price is falling and downstream enterprises are consuming their own inventories. The price is expected to be weakly stable, and the overall trend is bearish [11]. - PVC: The supply - demand surplus situation persists. Demand from real estate and other downstream industries is weak, and new capacity will increase supply in November - December. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [11]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices decreased on November 4 compared to November 3. Spot prices of PP and PE also showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The price differences between different contracts and between spot and futures also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Both PE and PP inventories showed a de - stocking trend [2]. - **开工率**: PE device开工率 decreased slightly, while PP device and powder开工率 increased. Downstream weighted开工率 of both increased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 futures prices decreased on November 4. Spot prices in different regions also decreased, and price differences and basis changed [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased, while port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased [5]. - **开工率**: Domestic upstream enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream enterprise开工率 decreased significantly, and some downstream enterprise开工率 increased [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and other upstream raw material prices also showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products changed slightly, and cash flows also showed different trends [9]. - **PX - related**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the开工率 of Asian and Chinese PX decreased slightly [9]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices, processing fees, and开工率 changed, and the market is expected to be slightly loose in terms of supply - demand [9]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 changed, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and raw material prices decreased, and pure benzene prices and spreads changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads decreased, and cash flows also declined [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased, while styrene inventory decreased [10]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene - related industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed on November 4 compared to November 3 [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes for caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [11]. - **Supply - related**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profit of PVC production methods also changed [11]. - **Demand - related**: The开工率 of caustic soda and PVC downstream industries changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [11]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda inventory in some regions increased, while PVC total social inventory decreased slightly [11].

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the closing price of SiFe2601 is 5526, up 26 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 118,520 and an open interest of 158,005; SiFe2605 has a closing price of 5604, up 38, a trading volume of 2,227, and an open interest of 8,437. For manganese ferroalloy, MnSi2601 has a closing price of 5794, up 22, a trading volume of 161,410, and an open interest of 350,214; MnSi2605 has a closing price of 5846, up 30, a trading volume of 11,640, and an open interest of 42,056 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day), manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - January futures spread of silicon ferroalloy is - 276 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton), that of manganese ferroalloy is - 144 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan/ton). The near - far month spread of silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) is - 78 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and that of manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) is - 52 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton). The cross - variety spread of MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 is 268 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton), and that of MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 is 242 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [1]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Price Information**: On November 3, 2025, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), in Qinghai is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Gansu is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Ningxia is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 is 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and the southern quotation is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Electricity Price and Market**: In October 2025, the electricity price for silicon ferroalloy production in Qinghai was settled. The off - peak electricity price is 0.375 - 0.42 yuan/kWh, and the full - load electricity price is 0.43 - 0.44 yuan/kWh, up 3 - 6 cents, resulting in an inverted cost situation. The futures market opened lower and rose slightly, and the factory market price in the morning was relatively stable [1]. - **Production Forecast**: From January to October 2025, the total production of silicon manganese was about 9.0396 million tons, with 6517 silicon manganese accounting for 88.4% of the total. The production from April to June was at a low level, and it has rebounded significantly since July. It is expected that the production of 6517 silicon manganese will continue to increase from November to December, and the monthly production may exceed 900,000 tons. The production and proportion of medium - and high - silicon silicon manganese are slowly rising, mainly due to new production capacity and the conversion from 6517 production. The demand for special medium - silicon silicon manganese from downstream stainless - steel mills has increased significantly [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure from demand, with different products facing various supply - demand situations. Positive and negative factors coexist, and investors need to pay attention to specific product trends and relevant influencing factors [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summaries by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The demand is weak, but the maintenance of Binzhou PDH device may support price stabilization [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. The supply of polyethylene increased due to reduced maintenance and new production, while demand weakened. Polypropylene faced supply pressure from new capacity and reduced maintenance, and demand was limited by low profit [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated around 5,500 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and there are medium - term negatives. The strategy is mainly month - spread reverse arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were weak. The cost support was insufficient, and the high inventory pressure continued [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation. The strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, but inventory increased. The supply pressure is high, and the strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation in mid - to late November. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell sharply. High inventory and weak demand persisted, waiting for supply reduction and demand improvement [6] - Urea prices oscillated narrowly. Downstream demand increased, and inventory decreased, but the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was at a low level due to weak cost support, high supply, and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda prices were slightly stronger, but high inventory and weak demand may keep prices low. Attention should be paid to liquid chlorine prices [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to increased supply and reduced demand. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash [8] - Glass prices rose. Inventory is expected to decrease, but cost increase and insufficient orders may limit the rise [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In November, with few PX unit overhauls in Asia and China, but concentrated PTA unit overhauls, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak. PX absolute prices are expected to gradually face pressure. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [1]. - PTA: In November, there are still many PTA unit overhaul plans. With better - than - expected terminal and polyester demand in October and low polyester inventory, PTA supply - demand is expected to be slightly loose with a small inventory accumulation expectation. PTA will continue to oscillate at a low level. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and treat TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): In November, domestic supply is high, overseas shipments are concentrated, and inventory accumulation is expected to be high, putting pressure on the price. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and do a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 on rallies [1]. - Short Fiber: In November, supply is expected to remain high, demand may weaken seasonally, and cost support is limited. Short - fiber prices will gradually face pressure. The strategy is similar to PTA for PF12, and try to shrink the PF processing margin when it is above 1000 [1]. - Bottle Chips: In November, supply changes little, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Bottle - chip prices will follow the cost side, and the processing margin will fluctuate with raw material costs. The strategy is similar to PTA for PR, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [1]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: In November, supply is expected to increase, demand support is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The overall trend is bearish, and it is necessary to track downstream restocking rhythm [2]. - PVC: In October, PVC prices continued to decline. In November - December, supply pressure will continue due to new capacity and high - season operation, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Methanol Industry The current market is trading the "weak reality" logic centered on high port inventory. Before the Iranian gas restriction, the weak reality will continue to be priced in. The 01 - contract inventory problem cannot be solved [3][4][5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: In November, supply is expected to be loose, demand support is limited, and although the East China port inventory decreased in October, it may increase later. Pure - benzene prices are expected to have weak driving force, but attention should be paid to unit changes [8]. - Styrene: In November, supply may slightly decrease, demand is expected to change little, and the supply - demand may be in a tight - balance state. However, high port inventory will limit price increases. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [8]. Polyolefin Industry PP supply recovery has slowed down due to unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand has recovered, but the agricultural film peak is approaching. Overall, supply will increase and demand will decrease, and there is inventory pressure on the 01 - contract. The 05 - contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse spreads [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - Upstream: Brent crude oil (December) dropped 0.1% to $65.00/barrel, WTI crude oil (December) dropped 0.7% to $60.57/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.4% to $573/ton, etc. [1] - Downstream: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 6415 yuan/ton, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged at 6690 yuan/ton, etc. [1] - PX: CFR China PX rose 0.4% to $820/ton, PX spot price (RMB) dropped 2.4% to 6753 yuan/ton [1]. - PTA: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.6% to 4535 yuan/ton, TA2601 futures rose 0.4% to 4586 yuan/ton [1]. - MEG: MEG port inventory dropped 9.7% to 52.3 million tons, MEG arrival expectation rose 273.6% to 19.8 million tons [1]. 开工率 - Asian PX开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.1%, Chinese PX开工率 rose 1.1% to 87.0%, PTA开工率 dropped 0.8% to 78.0%, etc. [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton, East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 1.1% to 4610 yuan/ton [2]. 开工率 - Caustic soda industry开工率 rose 0.1% to 85.6%, PVC total开工率 dropped 1.9% to 73.7% [2]. 库存 - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory dropped 3.8% to 18.8 million tons, PVC upstream factory inventory dropped 7.4% to 33.4 million tons [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2180 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's north line dropped 9.09% to 150 yuan/ton [3]. 库存 - Methanol enterprise inventory rose 4.36% to 37.606%, methanol port inventory dropped 0.38% to 150.6 million tons [4]. 开工率 - Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 dropped 0.09% to 75.78%, downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 rose 7.63% to 84.06% [5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price and Spread - CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $677/ton, styrene East China spot price rose 1.1% to 6470 yuan/ton [8]. 库存 - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, styrene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [8]. 开工率 - Asian pure benzene开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.8%, domestic styrene开工率 dropped 3.7% to 66.7% [8]. Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6968 yuan/ton, down 0.99% from the previous day, PP2601 closed at 6590 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day [10]. 库存 - PE enterprise inventory dropped 19.16% to 41.6 million tons, PP enterprise inventory dropped 6.80% to 59.5 million tons [10]. 开工率 - PE device开工率 dropped 0.73% to 80.9%, PP device开工率 rose 1.5% to 77.1% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased. Steel supply increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, performing strongly in the off-season, but the inventory depletion rate was still slow compared to the same period last year. The decline in molten iron production indicates that steel mills started to cut production under profit pressure. The divergence between steel production and molten iron production may be due to statistical caliber issues. Starting next week, steel production is expected to start to decline, and steel may enter a new round of inventory depletion, increasing pressure on raw materials and strengthening the negative feedback expectation. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in a short-term short position [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term this week, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased [7]. - The spot market of hot-rolled coils showed a weak and volatile trend [10]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - For the basis of hot-rolled coils, the 01 basis is 12, the 05 basis is -12, and the 10 basis is -20 [14]. - The cold-hot spread is not detailed in the report. 3.3 Part 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - **Hot-rolled coil profits**: The production profit is 33, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 119, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 89, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 103 [21]. - **Production**: The production of hot-rolled coils is 323.56, cold-rolled coils is 85.97, rebar is 212.59, and the five major steel products is 875.29 [24]. - **Raw materials**: Not detailed in the report. - **Inventory**: The inventory of hot-rolled coils is 406.59, cold-rolled coils is 175.98, rebar is 602.52, and the five major steel products is 1513.74 [29]. - **Terminal demand**: Not detailed in the report. - **Exports**: Exports continued to strengthen on a month-on-month basis, providing support for demand [33]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term this week, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased. Steel production is expected to decline next week, and steel may enter a new round of inventory depletion, increasing pressure on raw materials and strengthening the negative feedback expectation. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in a short-term short position [35].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Report Overview - The report consists of four parts: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report, Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report, and Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, covering price, inventory, and开工率 data of multiple chemical products, along with corresponding investment strategies [2][4][9][10] Polyolefin Industry Price Changes - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all increased on October 29, with L2601 up 0.34%, L2509 up 0.06%, PP2601 up 0.42%, and PP2509 up 0.37% [2] - Some spot prices remained stable, while华北LDPE膜料现货 rose 0.15% [2] Inventory and开工率 - PE企业 inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, and社会库存 decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 tons [2] - PP企业 inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.5 tons, and贸易商库存 decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [2] - PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, while下游加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8% [2] - PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while粉料开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and下游加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4% [2] Core View - PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand improved, and both inventories decreased. Consider long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract and track sanctions' impact on refinery loads [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and WTI原油 increased slightly on October 29, while纯苯中石化华东挂牌价 remained unchanged [4] -苯乙烯华东现货 and related futures prices increased, with苯乙烯华东现货 up 0.6% [5] Inventory and开工率 -纯苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [7] -亚洲纯苯开工率 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while国内纯苯开工率 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7% [8] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and CFR日本石脑油 increased slightly on October 29 [9] - Most下游聚酯 product prices remained stable, with聚酯切片 price up 0.1% [9] Inventory and开工率 - MEG港口库存 decreased by 9.7% to 52.3 tons, and到港预期 increased significantly by 273.6% to 19.8 tons [9] -亚洲PX开工率 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and中国PX开工率 increased by 1.0% to 85.9% [9] Core View - PX supply contracted, and demand support strengthened. However, PX rebound space is limited. PTA,乙二醇,短纤, and瓶片 also have corresponding supply - demand situations and investment strategies [9] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price Changes -山东32%液碱折百价 and山东50%液碱折百价 remained unchanged on October 29, while华东电石法PVC市场价 increased by 0.4% [10] Inventory and开工率 -烧碱行业开工率 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6%, and烧碱山东样本开工率 increased by 3.2% to 86.6% [13] - PVC总开工率 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [13] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with demand also rising. The inventory situation varies among different downstream sectors. The cost support has increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9060. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply of polysilicon decreased slightly last week, but the October production plan is expected to increase. The demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends, with some experiencing production cuts. The cost is stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased, but different downstream sectors have different inventory and profit situations [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 345 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease; the main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2601 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8850 - 9060 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The October production plan is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends. Some are in a loss - making state, and the production plans for October have decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. - **Expectation**: The short - term supply schedule will increase, and the medium - term is expected to adjust. The short - term production of downstream products will decrease, and the medium - term is expected to recover. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and the cost support is stable. The 2601 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon have minor fluctuations. The inventory situation of different regions and ports also shows different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts of polysilicon have decreased to varying degrees. The production, inventory, and export volume of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [17]. 3.3 Other Information - There are also various trend charts in the report, including price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25].

期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 29 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 利多因素主导，矿价重回高位 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，终端消耗持续回落，且钢市矛盾未缓解，矿石需求仍 将走弱，继续拖累钢价。与此同时，天气因素扰动下国内港口矿石到货超预期回落，但海外矿石发运 维持高位，且按船期推算后续到货重回高位，叠加内矿生产平稳，矿石供应压力偏大。目前来看 ...