Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the concept of "Reward Economy," which is seen as a strategic initiative to expand domestic demand. The media industry, with its dual attributes of technology and consumption, is positioned to leverage this trend to stimulate curiosity-driven and emotional consumption [3][4]. - The cinema sector is expected to benefit from increased consumer spending on experiences, particularly during festive seasons, with a lineup of both domestic and international films anticipated to boost box office attendance [4]. - The IP derivatives market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from 174.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 335.7 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Media Industry Performance - The media sector has shown a relative performance of -1.1% over the past month, -8.0% over three months, and a positive 10.4% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Changes in population structure are influencing consumer behavior, shifting focus from mere material acquisition to a holistic enhancement of life quality, including spiritual and emotional satisfaction [3]. - The "Reward Economy" reflects a growing demand for meaningful consumption, where purchases are driven by emotional significance rather than just functional needs [3]. Cinema and Experience Economy - The cinema sector is highlighted as a key player in the experience economy, with strategic investments in IP and social consumption aimed at attracting younger audiences [4]. - Notable companies like Wanda Film and Shanghai Film are adapting their business models to focus on IP-driven ecosystems that resonate emotionally with consumers [4][8]. IP and AI Integration - The report identifies a growing market for IP-related products, including toys and trading cards, with significant growth expected in the coming years. The IP toy market is projected to grow from 75.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 167.5 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 17.2% [4][8]. - AI-enhanced products, such as AI toys and smart glasses, are emerging as new consumer choices, further driving engagement in both online and offline experiences [7][8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on cinema chains (e.g., Wanda Film, Hengdian Film), IP-related products (e.g., Mango Super Media, Aofei Entertainment), and new experience-driven exhibitions (e.g., Oriental Pearl, Bilibili) as potential investment targets [8].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.16% at 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.17% to 3107.06 points, indicating a mixed performance among the three major indices [1][2] - The total trading volume across the three markets was 16,770 billion, a decrease of 1,575 billion compared to the previous day, raising questions about short-term upward momentum [1][2] Sector Performance - The market saw a mixed performance across sectors, with pharmaceuticals, aerospace equipment, coal, banking, oil and gas, and retail sectors leading the gains, while consumer electronics, batteries, photovoltaics, and lithium mining sectors experienced declines [1][2] - The "reward economy" emerged as a new consumption model, with stocks like Sanxiang Impression and Zhejiang Zhongcheng seeing significant gains, raising questions about their sustainability [1][2] Individual Stocks - Over 70 stocks hit the daily limit up, a noticeable increase from the previous day, indicating high individual stock activity [1][2] - The retail sector remained strong, with leading stock Baida Group achieving six consecutive limit ups, alongside other stocks like Nanjing Business Travel and Central Mall also hitting limit up [1][2] - The monthly active users of "Ant Financial" exceeded 15 million after its launch, boosting related stocks such as Meiyan Health and Luyan Medicine, which achieved consecutive limit ups, prompting discussions on their continued performance [1][2] - The commercial aerospace sector continued to be a strong market theme, with Shunhao Co. achieving eight limit ups in 15 days, alongside multiple stocks hitting limit up, suggesting ongoing opportunities in this sector [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on December 19, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong or weak shock state and their corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4][5][8] - The report also provides macro - information and trading tips, including national policies, international events, and economic data, which may affect the futures market [8][9][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile on December 19. For example, IF2603 has resistance at 4539 and 4576 points and support at 4486 and 4461 points. In December 2025, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are likely to be in wide - range fluctuations [2][19] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year T2603 and 30 - year TL2603 are expected to be strongly volatile on December 19. The 10 - year T2603 has resistance at 108.07 and 108.14 yuan and support at 107.92 and 107.87 yuan; the 30 - year TL2603 has resistance at 112.7 and 113.2 yuan and support at 111.9 and 111.7 yuan [3][34][36] - **Precious Metal Futures** - **Gold**: The main contract AU2602 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on December 19, with resistance at 988.8 and 993.0 yuan/gram and support at 975.7 and 972.5 yuan/gram. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly and widely volatile [40] - **Silver**: The main contract AG2602 is expected to be weakly volatile on December 19, with support at 15033 and 14779 yuan/kg and resistance at 15521 and 15666 yuan/kg. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high [46][47] - **Platinum**: The main contract PT2606 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with resistance at 550.0 and 570.0 yuan/gram and support at 542.6 and 535.0 yuan/gram [51] - **Palladium**: The main contract PD2606 is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 19, with resistance at 490.0 and 510.0 yuan/gram and support at 476.6 and 470.0 yuan/gram, and may hit a new high [54] - **Base Metal Futures** - **Copper**: The main contract CU2602 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on December 19, with resistance at 93800 and 94700 yuan/ton and support at 91600 and 91100 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high [57] - **Tin**: The main contract SN2601 is expected to be strongly volatile on December 19, with resistance at 342000 and 345000 yuan/ton and support at 334300 and 331600 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile [62] - **Other Commodity Futures** - **Polysilicon**: The main contract PS2605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 58000 and 56800 yuan/ton and resistance at 60000 and 62000 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile [64][66] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract LC2605 is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 19, with resistance at 106300 and 110000 yuan/ton and support at 104500 and 102700 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile [72] - **Rebar**: The main contract RB2605 is expected to be weakly volatile on December 19, with support at 3096 and 3075 yuan/ton and resistance at 3137 and 3157 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations [77] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract HC2605 is expected to be weakly volatile on December 19, with support at 3238 and 3225 yuan/ton and resistance at 3282 and 3298 yuan/ton [82] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract I2605 is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 19, with resistance at 784 and 788 yuan/ton and support at 770 and 767 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be weakly and widely volatile [84] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract JM2605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 1100 and 1070 yuan/ton and resistance at 1133 and 1145 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations [90] - **Glass**: The main contract FG605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 1033 and 1021 yuan/ton and resistance at 1069 and 1085 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations [94] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract SA605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 1170 and 1160 yuan/ton and resistance at 1193 and 1205 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations and may hit a new low [100] - **PTA**: The main contract TA605 is expected to be strongly volatile on December 19, with resistance at 4850 and 4894 yuan/ton and support at 4742 and 4726 yuan/ton [104] 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment, including expanding investment in emerging industries and adjusting the pilot scope of local government special bond projects [8] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market and strengthen fair competition governance [8] - The US has launched a US $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which China firmly opposes [8] - Hainan Free Trade Port officially started the whole - island customs closure operation on December 18, 2025, expanding the "zero - tariff" commodity range [9] - China has re - implemented export license management for steel products and approved some rare - earth export general license applications [9] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council has issued a new method for holding central enterprises accountable for illegal business investment [9] - Market institutions expect the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio by about 0.5 percentage points and the interest rate by about 0.1 percentage points in 2026 [10] - A new consumption model called the "reward economy" is emerging among young people [10] - US President Trump will announce the next Fed chair nominee who supports "substantial" interest - rate cuts [10] - Trump will sign a nearly US $1 trillion annual defense policy bill, with the approved annual military expenditure reaching a record high of US $901 billion [10] - The US November core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, and the overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, both lower than expected, but the data reliability is questioned [11] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 224,000, and the number of continued jobless claims increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million [11] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time [11] - The Bank of England cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% [11] 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 18, London base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.13%, LME zinc fell 0.44%, LME nickel rose 1.84%, LME aluminum rose 0.38%, LME tin rose 1.53%, and LME lead fell 0.05% [12] - On December 18, international precious - metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23%, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.17% [12] - A large undersea gold mine was discovered in Laizhou, Shandong, with the city's total proven gold reserves accounting for about 26% of the country's total [12] - On December 18, US oil and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly [13] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will consolidate in 2026, with an average price of US $11,400 per ton in the baseline scenario, and gold prices will rise 14% to US $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [13] - On December 18, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 41 basis points at the 16:30 close [13] - In November, the RMB ranked sixth in the global payment currency ranking by amount, accounting for 2.94% [13] - On December 18, the US dollar index rose 0.04%, and most non - US currencies rose [14]

一、【早盘盘面回顾】 智通财经12月19日讯，市场早盘震荡走强，沪指高开高走，创业板指一度涨超1.5%。沪深两市半日成交额1.09万亿，较上个交易日放量421亿。盘面上热点 快速轮动，全市场近4700只个股上涨。从板块来看，大消费板块持续拉升，零售、乳业方向领涨，中央商场、庄园牧场等多股涨停。智能驾驶概念走强，浙 江世宝4连板。路畅科技4天2板。商业航天概念反复活跃，华体科技2连板。可控核聚变概念开盘表现强势，王子新材3天2板。下跌方面，影视院线概念走 弱，博纳影业大跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.59%，深成指涨0.93%，创业板指涨0.99%。 个股来看，今日早盘涨停数量为59家（不包括ST及未开板新股），封板率为71%，连板股数量为12家，胜通能源6连板，浙江世宝4连板，中天服务、鹭燕医 药、庄园牧场、嘉美包装3连板，三湘印象、中央商场、上海九百、九牧王、华体科技、法狮龙2连板。 板块上，大消费反复活跃，零售板块再度走强，德必集团、大连友谊、东百集团、上海九百等个股涨停。 | | 商业零售 +3.82% + 自选 | | | 02 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票 ...

Market Overview - A total of 70 stocks hit the daily limit up, with a limit-up rate of 75%, indicating strong market activity [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound, while the ChiNext Index experienced fluctuations, previously rising over 1.5% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.73 trillion, an increase of 704 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Notable stocks include Victory Energy with six consecutive limit-ups, Zhejiang Shibao with four consecutive limit-ups, and several others like Su Li Co., Zhongtian Service, and Lu Yan Medicine with three consecutive limit-ups [1] - The market saw a rapid rotation of hotspots, with over 4,400 stocks rising [1] Sector Analysis - The sectors that performed well included Hainan, dairy, and retail, while precious metals and semiconductors faced declines [1] - The consecutive limit-up rate for stocks increased to 41.18%, but the maximum limit-up height decreased to five [3] - High-position stocks experienced significant sell-offs towards the end of the trading session, indicating volatility [3] Key Trends - The commercial aerospace sector remains active, with several stocks like West Materials and Shenjian Co. achieving consecutive limit-ups [6] - The smart driving sector saw a resurgence with multiple companies receiving conditional approval for L3-level autonomous driving vehicles, leading to a spike in stock prices for companies like Zhejiang Shibao and Weidi Co. [7] - The consumer sector is supported by government initiatives, with new consumption models being tested in 50 cities, leading to increased interest in stocks related to consumer spending [8] Future Outlook - The market is showing signs of a mild rebound, but there are indications of potential weakness in high-position stocks and technology sectors [9] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance from moving averages [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced a moderate increase with over 4,400 stocks rising, and 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market sentiment [1][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index initially rose over 1.5% before retreating [1][8] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Notable stocks included Victory Energy with a six-day limit up streak, Zhejiang Shibao with four consecutive limit ups, and several others like Su Li Co., Zhongtian Service, and Lu Yan Medicine achieving three consecutive limit ups [1][10] - The limit up rate was recorded at 75%, with 23 stocks experiencing limit down [1][3] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Hainan, dairy, and retail, while precious metals and semiconductors faced declines [1][8] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining traction, with significant activity expected in late 2025 to early 2026, leading to increased interest in related stocks [14] - The smart driving sector saw a resurgence with several companies receiving conditional approval for L3 level autonomous driving vehicles, contributing to the rise of stocks like Zhejiang Shibao and Weidi Co. [6][12] Investment Themes - The "reward economy" concept is emerging as a new consumption model among younger demographics, driving interest in related stocks [23] - The recent announcement of a trial for new consumption models in 50 cities by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance is expected to boost the retail sector [29] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the subsequent increase in consumer enthusiasm for local purchases is positively impacting stocks in the region [27][28]

Group 1 - China's Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure operations on December 18, expanding the range of "zero tariff" goods to over 6,600 tax items, enhancing consumer experience in tourism and shopping [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has reintroduced export license management for steel products after 16 years to strengthen monitoring and quality tracking of exports, while also approving some rare earth export general license applications [1] - The State Council's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has issued guidelines for accountability in investment violations by central enterprises, detailing 98 scenarios for accountability [2] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated increased investment pressure since 2025 and plans to implement targeted measures to expand effective investment, particularly in emerging industries [2] - The market regulatory authority emphasizes the need to promote a unified national market and improve fair competition governance to eliminate "involution" competition [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is advancing the "14th Five-Year" plan for the capital market, focusing on comprehensive reforms and high-level opening-up [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.16% while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17% respectively, with a total market turnover of 1.68 trillion yuan [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 0.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.73%, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 1.257 billion HKD [4] - The insurance asset management sector has registered 83 asset-backed plans this year, totaling approximately 344.56 billion yuan, indicating ongoing innovation in asset securitization [4] Group 4 - The domestic gold resource reserves in Laizhou, Shandong, have been confirmed to exceed 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the national total, making it the largest underwater gold mine in Asia [2] - The upcoming New Year's holiday is expected to significantly boost the domestic tourism market, with flight bookings already showing a 46% year-on-year increase [6] - The insurance asset management market has reached a record high of approximately 34 trillion yuan in total scale by the end of November, continuing a trend of positive growth [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of "reward economy" in China, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards seeking quality and emotional value in consumption, particularly in entertainment and smart home appliances [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - China's economic development is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, with consumer preferences evolving from mere availability to quality [1] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and consumption as a priority for economic strategy [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The sectors of home appliances, gaming, and film are closely tied to consumer spending, with a notable shift from material needs to spiritual and intelligent consumption [2] - AI technology is significantly transforming the film, gaming, and home appliance industries, enhancing content production efficiency and creating new consumer experiences [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The integration of consumption and technology is expected to lead to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for related industries, with consumption likely becoming a key investment tool in the coming year [3] - Current valuations of consumer-related products are considered low, suggesting potential investment opportunities in ETFs related to home appliances, film, and gaming [3]

Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is advancing the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, focusing on enhancing the market's inclusivity and attractiveness to quality enterprises in new production sectors [2] - Morgan Stanley's China equity strategy head forecasts that the MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index will reach target levels of 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively, indicating potential double-digit growth [2] - Hong Kong's capital market is experiencing a surge in IPOs, with several companies including Yingxi Intelligent, Wuyi Vision, and others launching public offerings, set to list on December 30 [2] Industry Highlights - The State Council has issued guidelines to strengthen regulation of the e-cigarette industry, aiming to combat illegal production and sales of products similar to tobacco [4] - Trump Media Technology Group is set to merge with nuclear fusion company TAE in an all-stock transaction, leading to a significant rise in Trump Media's stock [4] Company Updates - ByteDance's AI model, Doubao, has achieved a daily usage rate exceeding 50 trillion calls, while Microsoft is reportedly collaborating with Kimi to automate Office products in response to local competition [6] - Haidilao has announced a shareholder return plan, committing to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% over the next three years [6] - Shandong High-Speed plans to recognize a long-term investment impairment of approximately 690 million yuan related to Dongxing Securities, which is expected to reduce the company's total profit for 2025 by the same amount [6] - Guoao Technology's former actual controller has been sentenced to six years in prison for manipulating the securities market [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents comprehensive market information including macro - data, commodity investment, finance, and the stock market. In 2025, the investment downward pressure has increased, and measures are needed to expand effective investment. The consumer structure is upgrading, and new consumption models are emerging. The bond and stock markets show different trends, and various industries face different opportunities and challenges [2][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.8% year - on - year, slower than the previous quarter (5.2%) but faster than the same period last year (4.6%). The manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was 49.2%, slightly up from the previous month but lower than the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activity in November was 49.5%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. The social financing scale increment in November was 8161.00 billion yuan. The M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in November were 10.6%, 4.9%, and 8.0% respectively. The new RMB loans in November were 3900.00 billion yuan. The CPI in November rose 0.7% year - on - year, and the PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in November was - 2.6%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods in November was 4.0%. The export value in November increased 5.9% year - on - year, and the import value increased 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port was officially launched, with the "zero - tariff" commodity scope expanding to over 6600 tariff items. China re - implemented export license management for steel after 16 years, and approved some rare - earth export general license applications. The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. On Thursday, the main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main platinum futures contract nearly hit the limit. The exchange issued trading limit regulations [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metal - Morgan Stanley believes that as zinc exports increase, LME zinc inventories are rising, and mine - end supply growth will continue in 2026. Korea Zinc plans to invest 15 trillion won in South Korea by 2029 to increase strategic mineral production. ICBC will strengthen the management of its agency business for individual precious - metal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The London Metal Exchange plans to implement new position - limit rules from next July [4][5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Westpac warns that iron - ore prices will drop 20% next year due to China's steel production cuts and new supply. Rio Tinto will start the first phase of a project in Western Australia, with an estimated annual iron - ore output of 50 million tons by 2030. The European Commission proposes to expand the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to downstream steel and aluminum - intensive products [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The EU Parliament plans to phase out Russian natural - gas imports by the end of 2027. Russia may extend the diesel export ban for non - oil - producing countries. China's first offshore CCUS well was drilled in the South China Sea, which is expected to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The USDA expects global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to increase 4.6% year - on - year to 189.3 million tons [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 18, the central bank conducted 88.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6.97 billion yuan. The market believes this is to meet the cross - year capital demand. The central bank will issue 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on December 22 [11]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance held a meeting on the "Three New" pilot projects. The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued regulations on liability - investigation for central enterprises' illegal business investments. China re - implemented export license management for steel and approved some rare - earth export general license applications. The "Reward Economy" is emerging among the young, driving domestic demand. The central government will prioritize expanding domestic demand in 2026. The bank - wealth management market is booming, with the scale reaching about 34 trillion yuan by the end of November. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's urban housing demand is estimated to be about 49.8 billion square meters. Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in October, while China reduced its holdings. Germany plans to issue a record 512 billion euros of federal debt next year. Trump said the next Fed chair nominee will support "substantial" rate cuts. The US November core CPI and overall CPI growth rates were lower than expected, but the data reliability is questioned. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the continuing claims increased. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the Bank of England cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. Some bond - related events and overseas credit ratings changes are also reported [12][13][14][15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was generally strong, with most interest - rate bond yields falling, but the 30 - year active bond yield rising slightly. Treasury - bond futures mostly rose. The inter - bank market liquidity was loose. The exchange - bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible - bond index rose slightly. The money - market interest rates showed different trends, and the yields of European and US bonds mostly fell [18][19][20][21]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On Thursday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 41 basis points at the 16:30 close. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated by 10 basis points. The US dollar index rose 0.04% in New York, and most non - US currencies rose [22]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed - income believes that since November, the yields of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have generally risen. Huatai Fixed - income thinks that the central economic work conference's monetary policy is discretionary, and the fiscal policy may have a certain improvement in the economic quarter - on - quarter, but the project - end constraints and other effects need to be observed. Guosheng Macro believes that the November fiscal revenue and expenditure weakened, and the 2026 fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive". CITIC Securities explains the Fed's open - market operations and the new round of reserve - management bond purchases in December 2025 [23][24]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 19, 169 bonds will be listed, 69 bonds will be issued, 103 bonds will make payments, and 201 bonds will pay principal and interest [25]. 3.4 Stock Market - The CSRC will promote the compilation and implementation of the capital - market "14th Five - Year Plan". The A - share market had a divergence in large and small indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index falling 2.17%. The Hong Kong stock market had narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.12%. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is consulting the market on optimizing the trading - unit framework. Morgan Stanley expects the MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index to have double - digit growth in 2026. Insurance asset - management institutions have been actively registering asset - support plans this year [27][28][29].