南华期货油脂产业周报 ——春节在即资金避险离场，等待节后机会 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月10日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内油脂市场受制于高供应压力和疲弱需求，缺乏利好，核心驱动依然在产地外盘市场，当前油脂的核 心矛盾主要依然为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力和需求增长的博弈。虽然马来进入减产季，但库存当前仍处于七年高位，1月去 库预期目前兑现，产地压力预计进一步减轻；印尼2026年依然持续B40计划，B50目前看来实施难度较大，棕 榈油生物燃料需求端扩张有限；但一季度东南亚斋月公共假期及印度采购支撑产地报价，季节性减产期间产 地价格预计下方空间有限。 2、美国生物柴油政策最新消息称将维持现有提案，即对2026年的掺混要求达到56.1亿加仑，同时取消进 口原料惩罚限制，利好全球油脂市场，及加大拿菜籽，最终结果在3月有望公布，关注后续消息。 3、中加和谈目前较乐观，加菜籽进口有望维持15%进口税，叠加全球菜籽丰产，菜油支撑减弱，近期陆 续有菜籽买船信息传出 ...

农产品早报 2026-02-10 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周一郑州白糖期货价格小幅反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5261 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 33 元/吨，或 0.63%。现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5280-5380 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 10 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 1 月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计产糖 4023 万吨，同比增加 34.5 万吨。巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月月 4 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数 量为 49 艘，此前一周为 54 艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 156.44 万吨，此前一周为 178.26 万吨。StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联盟联合 会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On February 5th, the bean market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, while the oil market maintained a volatile trend. Specifically, the prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and rapeseed meal were under pressure, with the price of rapeseed meal accompanied by an increase of 19,000 lots in positions. The prices of soybean meal were slightly stronger, also under pressure. The oil prices were in a volatile state, with soybean oil and palm oil prices under pressure and accompanied by a reduction of 13,000 lots in positions, and the price of rapeseed oil was relatively weak [5]. - The bean market is in a complex pattern with both bullish and bearish factors. The expectation of China's soybean purchases from the US and the implementation of the US biodiesel tax credit policy have boosted the demand for US soybean oil, supporting the price of US soybeans. However, the abundant global soybean supply is the core factor suppressing prices. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the fast harvesting progress mean a high volume of imported soybeans will arrive in the coming months. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at ports and oil mills are nearly doubled year - on - year and at a historical high, while the downstream aquaculture industry is generally in the red and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is almost over, resulting in weak demand. In the short term, the bean market will maintain a range - bound operation [6]. - The oil market is also in a volatile pattern with both bullish and bearish factors. The core driving force lies in the game between supply expectations and policy prospects. China's increased purchase of Canadian rapeseed strengthens the expectation of a loose rapeseed oil supply, and the expected significant reduction of rapeseed import tariffs after the easing of China - Canada relations will put long - term pressure on the rapeseed oil supply. In the soybean oil market, the specific details and blending targets of the US biofuel policy are still key variables, and the demand expectation for soybean oil is still supported, showing relatively resistant short - term performance. Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but the absolute inventory level is still high, and it will enter the production - increase cycle later. The expected decline of Malaysian palm oil inventory in the MPOB data to be released next week may provide short - term support. The domestic pre - Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, the demand support is weakening, and the near - term inventory pressure in the oil market still exists [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Brazilian Soybean Exports - According to Safras & Mercado, the shipping plan of Brazilian ports shows that the soybean export volume in February 2026 is expected to be 11.42 million tons, higher than 2.444 million tons in January and 9.586 million tons in February last year. Based on the latest shipping plan, the estimated export volume in March 2026 is 396,000 tons. The total export volume from January to February 2026 is estimated to be 14.261 million tons, higher than 7.497 million tons in the same period of 2025 [9]. 3.1.2 Global Weather Conditions - In the US, the temperature in the plains will be higher than normal in the next two weeks, with more rainfall in the northern plains and the northwest and drier in other areas. In South America, the corn and soybean planting areas in the northern and central Pampas will be cool and rainy, and the central region of Brazil is expected to have mild weather, which may be beneficial to crop growth. In Europe, the temperature in central and western Europe will be higher than normal in the next 10 days, with moderate to heavy rain expected. In Asia, the temperature in Southeast Asia and India is expected to be close to or slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days, while the temperature in China and Japan will be higher. Most parts of Asia will be dry, except for possible short - term rainfall in Southeast Asia and eastern China. In Africa, rainfall may delay the cocoa harvest in southern West Africa [10]. 3.1.3 China - US Soybean Trade - US President Trump said that he had a "very positive" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade and security issues. Chinese leaders agreed to increase the purchase volume of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. After the news was announced, Chicago soybean futures rose sharply. However, analysts believe that China may turn to purchase cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the next few months as Brazilian soybeans are harvested and put on the market [11]. 3.1.4 Argentine Weather - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that from February 5th to 11th, 2026, the Argentine agricultural region will continue to have high temperatures with uneven rainfall. Some areas will have abundant rainfall, but large areas will be short of water. The temperature will be moderate at the beginning of the forecast period, but the tropical wind will return strongly, causing the temperature in the northern and central agricultural regions to be higher than normal, but it will not extend southward. The rainfall distribution will be extremely uneven, with abundant rainfall in the western part of the agricultural region and scarce rainfall in most other agricultural regions [12]. 3.1.5 Brazilian Paraná State Soybean Harvest - The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state reported that as of now, the soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season in the state has reached 14%, 9 percentage points higher than a week ago but still lower than the levels of the past two years. DERAL raised the soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season in Paraná state to 22.04 million tons, a 4% increase from last year [13]. 3.1.6 US Biofuel Policy - The US Treasury Department released the proposed detailed guidelines for the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit. This policy has received different responses in the industry. For the US ethanol and biodiesel industries, the release of the guidelines marks a transition from "vague expectation" to the "operational stage." However, there are still some unresolved technical problems, such as the unreleased revised 45Z GREET model, which will directly determine the monetary value of credit额度 [14][15]. 3.2 Price and Profit Data 3.2.1 Commodity Prices - The table shows the prices and price changes of various soybean - related products. For example, the price of imported second - grade soybeans in Dalian is 3,950 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The average price of soybeans is 4,072 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,180 yuan/ton, with an average price of 9,206 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang is 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the average price is 10,046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2.2 Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The table shows the pressing profits of oil mills in different regions. For example, the pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is - 7.60 yuan, while the pressing profit of imported soybeans in Dalian is 16.10 yuan [17]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report mentions several related charts, including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart data is provided [18][20][22][24][26][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the US Soybean Export Council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The US EPA will soon release final regulations on biofuels, including the small refinery exemption policy, which boosts demand expectations, but the harvest pressure in Brazil has led to a decline in US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the high inventory of soybean meal and the expectation of sufficient supply in the distant months continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The oil market: Night trading of oils closed higher. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, production decreased month - on - month, and the reduction of tariffs improved future export expectations. The palm oil market is in a de - stocking cycle, which supports palm oil prices. However, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the oil market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8086, 9094, and 9215 respectively, with changes of - 6, + 80, and + 79, and percentage changes of - 0.07%, + 0.89%, and - 3.15%. The previous closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2362, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 23, - 21, and + 26, and percentage changes of - 0.84%, - 0.88%, and + 0.29% [1] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 40, 112, and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of 56, 134, and 90. The current spreads of Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 are - 946, 1057, and 111 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 1000, 971, and - 29. The current spreads of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1 are - 48 and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 45 and 57. The current spread of M - RM09 is 559, compared with the previous value of 579. The current ratios of M/RM09, Y/M09 are 1.24 and 2.87 respectively, and Y - M09 is currently 5349, compared with the previous value of 5406 [1] International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), CBOT US soybean oil (in cents per pound), and CBOT US soybean meal (in dollars per ton) were 4180, 1067, 54.52, and 292 respectively, with changes of - 40.0, + 6.8, + 1.3, and - 2.2, and percentage changes of - 0.95%, + 0.64%, + 2.40%, and - 0.75% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot Prices and Changes - **Oils**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8470 and 8570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24% and - 0.35%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9160, with a percentage change of 1.10%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9890 and 9860 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.20% [1] - **Meals and Nuts**: The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3030 and 3090 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.66% and - 0.96%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2520 and 2460 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.79% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7150 and 7300 respectively, with no change [1] Spot Basis - For oils, the spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 384 and 484 respectively, that of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is 66, and that of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is 675 and 645 respectively. For meals, the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is 303 and 363 respectively, and that of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is 271 and 211 respectively. The spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is - 880 and - 730 respectively [1] Spot Spreads - The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 460, the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1340, and the spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 630, compared with the previous values of - 460, 1270, and 600 respectively [1] Import, Crushing Profit, and Warehouse Receipts - **Import and Crushing Profit**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 377, - 256, 0, - 224, 223, and 465 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 469, - 253, 4, - 217, 133, and 399 respectively [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,460, 450, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively. The previous values of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 26,460, 0, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively [1] Industry Information - The US Soybean Export Council CEO said global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - According to SPPOMA data, from January 1 - 31, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 13.78% month - on - month compared with the same period of last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - According to CONAB data, as of January 31, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 11.4%, compared with 6.6% last week, 8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 11.8% [2] - According to MPOA data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 increased by 7.97% - 9.97% month - on - month [2] - The Indonesian President announced a plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.87 and full year adjusted EPS of $3.43, with total segment operating profit of $821 million for the fourth quarter and $3.2 billion for the full year [4] - The trailing fourth quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 6.3%, and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.7 billion for 2025, with a $1.5 billion cash flow benefit from inventory reduction [4][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ag Services and Oilseeds (AS&O) segment operating profit for the fourth quarter was $444 million, down 31% year-over-year, and for the full year, it was $1.6 billion, a 34% decrease compared to 2024 [11] - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit for the fourth quarter was $299 million, down 6% year-over-year, and for the full year, it was $1.2 billion, down 12% compared to 2024 [14] - The Nutrition segment revenues were $1.8 billion for the fourth quarter, remaining flat year-over-year, with human nutrition revenue increasing by 5% and animal nutrition revenue decreasing by 4% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The operating environment throughout 2025 was challenging, with lower export activity from North America impacting the Ag Services subsegment [11] - The company expects positive economic opportunities for the industry and American farmers to materialize, which should drive additional long-term investments [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on five key growth areas: enhanced nutrition, biotics, biosolutions, precision fermentation, and decarbonization, with each presenting potential for compelling returns [7] - The company executed over 20 projects as part of portfolio optimization and simplification initiatives, achieving approximately $200 million in cost savings [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, anticipating a more constructive operating environment in 2026, driven by improved trade relations and expected clarity in U.S. biofuel policy [9][10] - The current outlook for adjusted EPS in 2026 is projected to be between $3.60 and $4.25, reflecting growth over 2025 [20] Other Important Information - The company paid its 376th consecutive quarterly dividend during the fourth quarter [5] - The joint venture with Alltech has commenced operations, although it is not expected to have a material impact on nutrition operating profit in 2026 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Congratulations on closing the case with the SEC and DOJ. What are the expectations for operating rates and processing rates of biodiesel and renewable diesel facilities once the RVO arrives? - Management acknowledged the difficulty in providing guidance due to external factors but expressed optimism about positive impacts once clarity is received on policies [30][31] Question: Can you provide an update on the Nutrition segment and the recovery of customers lost during the Decatur East downtime? - Management indicated that while there was a strong performance in flavors, recovery of customer demand is ongoing and will take time [39][40] Question: What are the expectations for crush margins and the impact of RVO policy on future earnings? - Management stated that the timing and adoption of RVO policy will significantly influence crush margins and overall earnings, with a cautious outlook provided [58][60] Question: What is driving the weakness in Starches and Sweeteners demand? - Management noted that consumer behavior changes, including the adoption of GLP-1 medications, have contributed to reduced demand, alongside pricing pressures [64][66]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. For conservative investors, it's recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [2] - Due to the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, the entire edible oil sector declined, and the EU's resistance to imported biodiesel also dampened biodiesel demand. However, the U.S. biofuel policy nearing implementation is the biggest support factor for edible oils. Before the policy is officially implemented, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. Spot traders can consider taking basis at appropriate price drops, and the market needs to pay attention to the guidance from the implementation of the U.S. biofuel policy [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - As of January 29, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 10%, compared with 4.9% last week and 3.9% in the same period last year. Almost all soybean - producing states have started harvesting, and there are no major harvest delays reported, but attention is turning to the high - temperature and drought weather in southern Brazil and Mato Grosso do Sul [1] - As of the week of January 29, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons, compared with 1,140,431 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume so far in the 2025/26 season reached 21,991,461 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.7%, and the U.S. soybean exports so far in the 2025/26 season have reached 51.3% of the annual export target [1] 3.2. Edible Oils - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026 were 1,375,718 tons, a 14.89% increase compared with the same period last month [2] - The Indonesian president plans to ban the export of palm oil waste to support domestic biodiesel and aviation fuel production and reduce energy import dependence [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in large - scale samples across the country was 2.2827 million tons, a decrease of 68,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.90%; a year - on - year increase of 17,100 tons, an increase of 0.75% [2]

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——短期宏观情绪转弱，压制油脂上方空间 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月3日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内油脂市场受制于高供应压力和疲弱需求，缺乏利好，核心驱动依然在产地外盘市场，当前油脂的核 心矛盾主要依然为以下几点： * 近端交易预期 . 1、棕榈油产地库存压力和需求增长的博弈。虽然马来进入减产季，但库存当前仍处于七年高位，关注出 口是否加快去库进度；印尼B50计划将不会在2026年执行，棕榈油生物燃料需求端扩张有限，产地整体来看 报价具有支撑但趋势性驱动不足，等待印度斋月备货需求提振棕榈油价格。 2、美国生物柴油政策最新消息称将维持现有提案，即对2026年的掺混要求达到56.1亿加仑，同时取消进 口原料惩罚限制，利好全球油脂市场，及加大拿菜籽，最终结果在3月有望公布，关注后续消息。 3、中加和谈目前较乐观，加菜籽进口有望维持15%进口税，叠加全球菜籽丰产，菜油支撑减弱，关注后 续采购信息。但随着美国总统特朗普发言威胁加拿大，中加贸易仍 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature a 9-day holiday aimed at boosting the holiday market, enriching cultural life, and stimulating consumer spending, as outlined in the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" released by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments [1] - The plan focuses on traditional cultural practices, family reunions, shopping, and travel, expanding the supply of quality goods and services to invigorate physical commerce [1] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)," aiming to establish a world-class metropolitan area centered around the capital [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, the main crude oil contract fell by 4.8% to 450 RMB per barrel, while gold and silver contracts also saw declines of 3.86% and 20% respectively, closing at 1045 RMB per gram and 20600 RMB per kilogram [1] - The decline in precious metals is attributed to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which strengthened the US dollar and led to profit-taking in the market [2][3] - The US crude oil production averaged 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels compared to the same period last year [4] Group 3 - The US stock market showed a rebound with significant trading volume of 2.61 trillion RMB, driven by a combination of technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, and economic recovery [5][13] - The financing balance decreased by 23.543 billion RMB to 2.698689 trillion RMB, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [5][13] - The overall market outlook for February remains positive, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of investment projects [5][13]

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：欧盟封杀豆棕生物柴油 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 豆粕：Rural Clima：预测阿根廷未来几天将继续不会出现明显降雨，但该 国西部和南部地区以及安第斯山脉地区可能会出现零星阵雨。由于持续干旱，布 宜诺斯艾利斯和圣塔菲的土壤湿度预计将持续偏低。此外，由于过去几周的干旱 和不规则降雨，阿根廷西北部、中部和南部地区的气候状况仍然十分严峻。 近月供应仍然存在一定缺口，但是相对去年缺货的极端情况预估发生概率偏 小，对于春节前后现货节奏仍然不清晰，近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合 约因为美国生物燃料政策加快落地而略微走强，美国生物燃料政策可能某种程度 弱化美豆的过剩，但是无法提供长期的向上驱动，南美大豆丰产带来的压力仍然 较大。建议现货头寸较多的考虑利用价格反复洗基差，盘面宽幅震荡看待。 油脂：欧盟委员会近期修改间接土地利用变化（ILUC）风险评估标准，首次 将大豆与棕榈油并列为"高风险"。按新规，欧盟将不再接受以大豆油为原料的 生物柴油，实际上只保留欧盟境内菜籽油路径。这一变化直接排除了阿根廷、巴 西和美国的大豆生物柴油出口。 冠通期货 骆利关 受国际原油大跌影响，油脂 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文：长安期货胡心阁 1、大豆贸易流再度重塑，美豆成本逻辑重新强化 （1）中美经贸关系一波三折，自美采购终迎重启 中美关系的演变是影响全球大豆贸易流向的关键因素之一。回顾今年以来，在2025年3月4日中国针对美 国关税威胁出台反制措施后，中国的购买量已经大幅下降。2025年1月到7月，美国对中国的大豆出口减 少了39%，仅为59万吨。今年前三季度CBOT大豆期货价格也基本持续处于低位区间运行的态势，上方 压力显著。四季度以来中美经贸关系再经波折，先是10月10日特朗普在社交媒体发布进一步加征关税的 言论，再到美方释放缓和信号，再经双方领导人多次谈判，最终达成协议。11月1日，美国白宫公布 《与中国就经贸关系达成协定》情况说明书，确认自11月10日起暂停实施针对中国的"特别港务费"和对 等关税一年，并降低芬太尼相关关税、延长301条款豁免期。新一年度，随着中美新一轮经贸协议正式 落地，沉寂多时的美豆航线或将重新启航。 美豆供需或边际收紧，豆油成本端支撑强化 在中美经贸冲突缓和、我国重启自美采购的背景下，CBOT大豆与国内豆系品种今年以来呈现的分化格 ...