| | | 铁矿 今日盘面震荡。 供应端，全球发运处于旺季，未来存在季末冲量预期，国内到港量阶段下降，根据船期推算未来将出现反 弹，港口库存预计将逐步止降转增，供应压力边际加大。需求端，终端需求进入淡季，钢厂仍有利润，主动减产意愿不强，铁 水产量变化不大，预计短期维持相对高位。宏观层面，国内仍然等待增量政策出台，外部地缘政治风险上升，市场短期不确定 性依然较强。我们预计铁矿走势以震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡上行。铁水小幅回落，整体维持在241，焦炭存在第四轮提降预期，焦化利润有所收缩，焦化日产较年内高位有 所回落，持续性有待观察。焦炭整体库存小幅下降，贸易商采购意愿依旧较低。整体来看，碳元素供应端切较充裕，下游铁水 稳定在241以上，关税依旧对行情产生影响，受原油价格大幅上涨影响，焦煤价格有所反弹。焦炭盘面基本平水，在库存压力 下，焦炭价格一定程度上受到原油带动。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 ...

Report Summary - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Report's core view: The EIA report is relatively positive as gasoline demand improves and overall terminal demand rises. Despite inventory drops influenced by进出口 factors, the US domestic oil market shows peak - season characteristics. However, the market focuses more on the Middle - East conflict and ignores institutional reports and fundamentals [8] Key Data Summary - As of June 13, US commercial crude oil inventory was 420,942 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 114,730 thousand barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 18,000 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 9,950 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 2,300 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory increased by 2,090 thousand barrels, less than the expected increase of 6,000 thousand barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 5,140 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 4,000 thousand barrels [2][3] - US crude oil net imports decreased by 174,700 thousand barrels per day, and refinery throughput decreased by 36,400 thousand barrels per day. Refinery operating rate dropped 1.1% to 93.2% [3][4] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 90 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 163.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 83.5 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 40.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Market Situation - After the data release, oil prices continued to decline. The market focused on the Middle - East Iran - Israel conflict and ignored institutional reports and fundamentals. News of Iranian planes flying to Oman caused a short - term oil price drop, but subsequent Iranian denials restored oil prices [8]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | なな☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | なな☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 【焦煤】 日内价格震荡下行。 炼焦煤矿产量持续小幅回落，个别煤矿因环保检查有小幅减产动作。现货竞拍成交市场依旧疲弱，成交价 格阴跌为主，终端库存继续小幅下降。炼焦煤总库存环比小幅增加，产端库存持续下降，观察去库持续性。整体来看，碳元素 供应端仍较充裕，下游铁水稳定在241以上，关税依旧对行情产生影响，受原 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES gives a ★★★ rating to silicon iron, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity; a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market has a weak domestic demand and is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The iron ore market has increasing supply pressure and short-term market uncertainty, and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their price rebound space is not overly optimistic under inventory pressure [4][5] - The silicon manganese market has limited improvement in fundamentals, with manganese ore prices likely to decline further [6] - The silicon iron market has acceptable overall demand and a slight decrease in inventory, with attention paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed down; hot-rolled coil's demand, production, and inventory all decreased slightly; the pig iron output is still relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation is still fermenting; the market sentiment provides some support, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume has declined, the domestic arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased; the terminal demand is weak in the off-season, the steel mill profitability rate has decreased, and the pig iron output has changed little; the market has certain policy expectations, and the external geopolitical risk has increased [3] Coke - The pig iron output has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts; the coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined; the overall inventory has decreased slightly, and the traders' purchasing willingness is still low; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal mine output has declined slightly, and the spot auction market is still weak; the terminal inventory has decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [5] Silicon Manganese - Driven by rebar, the price has increased; a large steel mill in the north has a lower tender inquiry price; the inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly output has started to increase; the manganese ore price is under pressure, and the manganese mine's price support intention has increased [6] Silicon Iron - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price has increased; the pig iron output has decreased slightly; the export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high; the supply has decreased, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and ferrosilicon are rated with white stars, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Silicomanganese is rated with three red stars, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is weak, with demand expectations remaining pessimistic and limited upward space for the market [2] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure increasing and negative feedback risks in the mid - term [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are oscillating downward, but have rebounded due to factors such as downstream ironwater levels and tariff impacts [4][6] - The price of silicomanganese is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] - The price of ferrosilicon is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to fall, production declined synchronously, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil slightly declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Ironwater production is gradually falling but remains relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation persists. The improvement in the infrastructure sector is limited, real - estate sales lack sustainable recovery, and new construction and construction continue to decline significantly. In May, automobile production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the manufacturing industry still has resilience. Market sentiment is volatile, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient, and pessimistic demand expectations restrict the upward space [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices oscillated. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively strong for the same period, with seasonal growth potential in the future. The domestic arrival volume has increased and is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventories are expected to stop falling and rise, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, terminal demand weakens in the off - season. Steel mills have a good profit rate and lack the motivation for active production cuts. The short - term production cut space for ironwater is relatively limited, and there are still negative feedback risks in the mid - term. Sino - US talks have improved market sentiment, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices oscillated downward. Ironwater production slightly declined, but coking daily production remains at a relatively high level this year due to existing coking profits. The overall coke inventory slightly increased, and traders had no purchasing actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines slightly declined from a high level, and the expectation of mine production cuts has increased. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and transaction prices have continued to decline. Terminal inventories continue to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and whether the production - end inventory will continue to decline remains to be observed. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the previous price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese slightly declined. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The price of Comilog's long - term ore has been reduced by $0.15 to $4.25 per ton - degree, and the offer volume has recovered to over 400,000 tons per month. The shipment volume of South32 is likely to increase later, the manganese ore inventory accumulation rate has increased, and the price is further pressured. It is judged that the manganese ore price has started a further downward trend. Ironwater production has slightly declined, and the supply of silicomanganese has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started a trend of accumulation, market expectations have changed, and the price remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. Ironwater production slightly declined. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, the market transaction level was average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory slightly decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the futures market and reselling to downstream, which is beneficial for ferrosilicon inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]

| | | | | 軍將前段 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。 淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上升，库存开始累积。 铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限，地产销售复苏缺乏持 续性，新开工、施工继续大幅下滑，5月份汽车产销量维持较高增速，制造 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 鐵 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。 本周螺纹表需环比大幅下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上升，库存开始累 积。铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限，制造业景气度放 缓，地产销售复苏缺乏持续性，新开工、施工继续大幅下滑，美国继续提高关税冲击钢材出口 ...

济措施，敦促政方不要毁然采取贸易限制举措，与中方通过对话协商解决做此关切。我们将密切关注欧方后续行动，并坚决维护中国企业合法权益。 2025年6月3日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 特变量再出变数,班轮公司继续提涨6月下旬运价,盘面区间震荡,风险偏好者可考虑轻仓逢高试空 | | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 6月2日 | | 5月30日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1252.82点，较上期上涨0.5% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1676.25点，较上期上涨51.55% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1718.11点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1067.59点，较上期上涨36.25% | | 5月30日 | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）3585.23点，较上期上涨89.23% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格2072.71点，较上期上涨486.59点 | | 5月30日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and other products is weak, with pessimistic market expectations and insufficient rebound momentum. The market rhythm is still volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal continue to decline, and there is a need to observe the sustainability of further negative feedback. The price of coking coal still has a downward driving force [4][5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have reached new lows for the year, and their prices remain weak [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is weak, with the rebar surface demand slightly increasing, production decreasing, and inventory continuing to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both increased significantly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The demand shows certain resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The iron water production has continued to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation continues to ferment. The market expectation is still pessimistic, and the rebound momentum of the market is insufficient [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The global shipment is fluctuating normally, and the domestic arrival volume is currently weak but is expected to rebound in the future. The port inventory has continued to decline. The terminal demand has entered the off-season, and the iron water production has gradually declined from its high level. It is expected that the short-term production reduction space for iron water is relatively limited, and steel mills have no motivation to actively replenish inventory. The iron ore supply and demand face certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron water production has continued to fall, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The daily coke production remains at a relatively high level for the year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke price support may decline due to the downward shift in costs caused by the reduction in coking coal prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The production of coking coal mines remains at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production. The number of shut-down mines has decreased by 1 to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly, while the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory pressure at the production end has continued to accumulate rapidly. The trading of imported Mongolian coal has continued to weaken. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has reached a new low for the year. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has remained basically flat, and the demand has remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased. The price remains weak [8]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price has reached a new low for the year. Due to the previous continuous production reduction, the inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. The manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly decreased, but the long-term inventory accumulation trend has not changed. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the ferromanganese supply has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and the market expectation has changed. The price remains weak [7].