证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition in economic cycles and the implications for wealth management, emphasizing the importance of structural debt and fiscal policy over monetary policy in the context of liquidity changes expected in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] Economic Cycle Analysis Framework - Economic cycle analysis should not be confined to traditional macro asset allocation frameworks, as it emphasizes structural issues rather than aggregate concepts [2] - The economic cycle consists of regular expansions and contractions, categorized into long, medium, and short cycles, including the Kondratieff, Juglar, Kuznets, and Minsky cycles [2] Phases of the Real Cycle - The real cycle is divided into three main cycles: Kondratieff, Juglar, and inventory cycles [3] Kondratieff Cycle: Technological and Energy Revolutions - The Kondratieff cycle spans approximately 60 years, focusing on technological changes and resource dynamics, with current consensus highlighting AI and its supporting infrastructure as key drivers [4] - The cycle illustrates the interplay between technological efficiency and resource consumption, leading to a demand cycle [4] Juglar Cycle: Equipment Investment - The Juglar cycle, lasting 7-11 years, is driven by periodic changes in equipment investment and capital expenditure, with China currently in the early recovery phase of its sixth Juglar cycle [6][7] - Key characteristics of the current Juglar cycle include the transition from old to new driving forces, accelerated technological iteration, and significant industry differentiation [8][9] Inventory Cycle: Transition from Passive to Active Inventory Management - The inventory cycle consists of four stages, with the current phase indicating a shift from passive to active inventory management, influenced by internal market dynamics [10] - Recent data shows a decline in manufacturing PMI, indicating weak demand and a challenging environment for inventory management [10][11] Phases of the Financial Cycle - The financial cycle focuses on real estate and debt cycles, with China still undergoing a significant adjustment in its real estate market since 2020 [13][14] - The Minsky cycle describes a pattern of credit expansion leading to financial instability, with current conditions characterized by low interest rates and a gradual rise in macro leverage [17][18] Asset Prioritization Based on Cycle Phases - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes the resonance between the Kondratieff and Juglar cycles, focusing on new productive forces while maintaining defensive positions in a low-interest environment [19] - Specific investment areas include AI computing, industrial robotics, and green energy, while avoiding high-risk assets related to the ongoing real estate adjustment [19]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of economic crises remains unchanged despite different appearances, characterized by excessive credit expansion, rampant leverage, collective greed, and subsequent panic [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Great Depression in 1929 occurred after the U.S. had already established a banking system, leading many to believe that such a crisis would not happen again [1][2]. - The U.S. was the first to enter a true consumer era, with significant industrial growth and widespread automobile ownership [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Dynamics - A hidden flaw existed when factory production efficiency outpaced wage growth, leading to overproduction and unsold goods [6][7]. - The introduction of installment payments transformed American consumption patterns, with 60% of cars and 75% of furniture sold on credit [12][13]. Group 3: Speculative Risks - The period from 1920 to 1929 saw the Dow Jones index rise by 500%, with widespread use of borrowed money for stock trading [17]. - Margin trading allowed investors to amplify their gains, but also their losses, creating significant risk when the market began to decline [18][20]. Group 4: Banking System Vulnerabilities - The absence of deposit insurance and the freedom for banks to invest in the stock market created systemic risks [30][32]. - A bank run occurred as depositors rushed to withdraw their savings, leading to widespread bank failures and a collapse of credit [36][39]. Group 5: Global Impact - The U.S. crisis transmitted globally due to the gold standard, affecting international trade and monetary policies [41][42]. - Countries faced a dilemma between monetary expansion to stimulate economies and the risk of currency devaluation [45][46]. Group 6: Recovery Mechanisms - The New Deal introduced reforms but was not sufficient for a quick recovery; World War II significantly boosted the U.S. economy by increasing industrial demand [47][49]. - The cyclical nature of economic events suggests that understanding these patterns is crucial for mitigating risks [50][52].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding future trends and leveraging AI as a foundational infrastructure for the new economic cycle [2][31]. Group 1: Lars Tvede's Background and Expertise - Lars Tvede is recognized as a prominent figure in the investment and technology sectors, often referred to as the "European Ray Dalio" [4][5]. - He has a diverse background, being an international investor, entrepreneur, and author, with a focus on macroeconomic trends and technological innovations [5][6]. - Tvede's career spans over 11 years in investment banking and portfolio management, followed by significant contributions to the high-tech and telecommunications industries [6][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Economic Insights - Tvede's investment philosophy is rooted in long-term trends, avoiding short-term market fluctuations, and focusing on macroeconomic cycles [11][16]. - He predicts that active investors will experience approximately five economic recessions and one or two major depressions over a 50-60 year investment career, providing a framework for understanding market volatility [16]. - Tvede forecasts that 2024 will mark the year of AI application deployment, with significant economic impacts expected from generative AI across various industries [17][19]. Group 3: AI and Future Trends - Tvede's company, SuperTrend, utilizes AI to monitor thousands of global research papers daily, enabling real-time trend detection and analysis [21]. - He emphasizes the necessity for individuals to adapt to AI technologies, suggesting that understanding and utilizing AI will be crucial for future job markets [24][30]. - The article highlights the shift of capital from traditional real estate to computational infrastructure, indicating a growing market expectation for AI-related companies [19][30]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Training - The article discusses the importance of practical AI training, suggesting that many professionals lack a deep understanding of AI applications [26][27]. - It outlines a three-part training program aimed at enhancing AI usage skills, including structured problem-solving, building intelligent agents, and identifying AI-appropriate business processes [27][30]. - The training is positioned as essential for professionals to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving job market influenced by AI [31][32].

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the "copper-oil ratio" as a leading indicator for economic and market trends, providing insights for asset allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicator - The copper-oil ratio serves as a "thermometer" for the economy, with rising ratios indicating economic recovery and active industrial activity, while falling ratios suggest economic slowdown or "stagflation" risks [4][5]. - The copper price is closely tied to industrial demand and economic growth, while oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-side issues [3][4]. Group 2: Market Prediction - The copper-oil ratio typically leads the performance of the A-share market by 3-5 months, allowing for predictions about future market directions based on current trends [5]. - Historical data shows that a rebound in the copper-oil ratio often precedes a bottoming out of the A-share market, as seen in the post-October 2018 period [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Framework - A four-quadrant framework, similar to the "Merrill Clock," is proposed for optimizing asset allocation based on the copper-oil ratio's state [9][10]. - The framework suggests different asset allocation strategies depending on the copper-oil ratio's movement, such as overweighting stocks during economic recovery and favoring cash and defensive assets during stagflation risks [10]. Group 4: Limitations and Considerations - The copper-oil ratio has limitations and should be used in conjunction with other indicators like macroeconomic data and market sentiment for comprehensive analysis [11]. - Structural demand for copper from the renewable energy sector is highlighted as a long-term support for copper prices, but potential risks from monetary policy tightening and geopolitical conflicts are noted [11].

Summary of Conference Call on Commodity Cycle Industry Industry Overview - The commodity cycle industry has a long-term annualized return and volatility higher than market benchmarks, with a specific focus on the downward ratio of non-ferrous metals [1][4] - Key sectors to monitor include non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, influenced by monetary, financial, and supply-demand factors [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Logic**: The investment logic in the commodity cycle industry is based on three dimensions: economic cycles, industry prosperity, and market sentiment. Timing is crucial due to the cyclical nature of the industry [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy changes serve as significant catalysts for sub-industries within the commodity cycle, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of valuation and performance turning points [1][8] - **Commodity Prices**: Commodity prices are direct indicators of industry prosperity, with stock market performance often leading commodity price peaks [1][10] - **Profitability Forecasts**: Profitability forecasts for coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals show a clearer leading relationship with stock prices compared to oil and petrochemicals [3][13] Key Sectors of Focus 1. **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Includes precious metals (e.g., gold), industrial metals (e.g., copper, aluminum), and energy metals (e.g., lithium). Influenced by monetary attributes and global economic conditions [6] 2. **Coal and Steel**: Heavily impacted by domestic supply-demand dynamics and commodity price correlations [6] 3. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Stock market performance is more strongly guided by oil price increases driven by economic growth, with caution advised regarding geopolitical disruptions [7] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: High dividend yield sectors, particularly coal, steel, and petrochemicals, exhibit strong defensive characteristics during market downturns [15] - **Emerging Technologies**: The development of new materials in the chemical industry, such as membrane materials and carbon fibers, is increasing demand [3][12] - **Long-term Outlook**: Analysts predict that the current upward cycle in commodity prices is not yet over, with long-term growth potential remaining due to low valuation levels across sub-industries [17] Conclusion - The commodity cycle industry is poised for potential growth driven by favorable policies and market conditions. Non-ferrous metals and coal are highlighted as sectors with significant investment opportunities, while the petrochemical sector requires careful monitoring of oil price movements.

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that funds are suitable investment options for ordinary people, particularly for beginners [2] - It suggests that long-term investment requires psychological preparation and understanding of fund investment strategies [2] - A free course is offered to help new investors learn about fund investment from scratch, including course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The concept of the "smile curve" is introduced, explaining that investing during the left side of the curve (bear market) can lower costs, while the right side (bull market) allows for profit without needing to return to previous levels [5][6] - The article discusses how the net value of index funds is influenced by valuation, earnings, and dividends, with historical P/E ratios for the CSI 300 ranging from about 8 to nearly 50 [8] - It highlights that earnings growth is the core driver of long-term index increases, but this growth is not uniform and can fluctuate significantly from year to year [8][9] Group 3 - The article explains that during periods of poor fundamentals, investor sentiment turns negative, leading to lower valuations and market downturns, which corresponds to the left side of the smile curve [9] - Conversely, during periods of economic prosperity, investor optimism leads to higher valuations and market uptrends, representing the right side of the smile curve [10][11] - It notes that economic cycles will continue to oscillate between downturns and upturns, presenting opportunities for low buying and high selling, particularly during low-performance periods when prices are more attractive [11]

证 券 研 究 报 告 刚性"泡沫" ——2026年海外宏观经济展望 证券分析师：赵伟 A0230524070010 陈达飞 A0230524080010 2025.11.19 ◼ 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经济周期"弱现实" 的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱； 权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫" 破裂的风险或趋于上行。 ◼ 2025年，贸易"前置"推动美国与非美经济"大收敛"——美国"前低后高"、非美"前高后低"。2026年，美、欧、日 经济周期依然存在冲突。美国经济"软着陆"仍是基准假设，私人消费的主要矛盾是"缺钱、缺人、缺工作"，AI资本开支 对GDP的拉动或边际走弱，地产链企稳、但弹性偏弱；欧元区核心国与外围国从分化走向收敛，可关注德国制造的周期性复 苏；日本"物价-工资-利润"良性循环启动，关注内循环的持续性。 ◼ 2026年，美、欧、日货币政策周期趋于分化，财政扩张的力度 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in investing in the cyclical industry due to its high volatility and low long-term compound returns [2][16][18] Core Insights - The cyclical industry, which includes coal, steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, is closely linked to macroeconomic performance, with nominal GDP growth serving as a synchronous or lagging indicator, while new social financing growth is a leading indicator [2][15] - Commodity prices are direct indicators of the cyclical industry's prosperity, typically leading or synchronizing with stock price bottoms but lagging at peaks [2][35] - Market sentiment is assessed through valuation extremes and trading volume, with high trading volumes indicating potential market reversals [2][40] Summary by Sections Industry Classification - The cyclical sector encompasses coal, steel, petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, with a total market capitalization share of 13.5% as of October 2025 [10][8] Market Characteristics - The cyclical industry exhibits high volatility and lower long-term returns, necessitating a focus on timing for investments [16][18] - Historical data shows that significant excess returns in the cyclical sector often coincide with periods of rising commodity prices, particularly in 2007, 2009, 2016, and 2021 [19][20] Industry Prosperity - Policy changes significantly impact the cyclical industry's performance, with supply-side constraints playing a crucial role [23][26] - Commodity prices are critical indicators of industry health, with manufacturing PMI and the South China index serving as leading or synchronous macro indicators [35][36] Market Sentiment - Valuation extremes signal potential market reversals, while trading volume and turnover rates provide insights into market participation [2][40] - The cyclical sector's performance is influenced by overall market risk appetite, with high-dividend sectors like coal and steel gaining traction during defensive market phases [2][40] Outlook - The cyclical sector's investment value is expected to improve with a recovery in sentiment and economic conditions, particularly in non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel [2][19]