Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with nearly 100% probability, amidst ongoing debates about inflation and employment risks [2][3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a desire for faster rate cuts and suggesting the administration is ready for Powell's term to end [2]. - There is a division among Fed officials regarding the interest rate outlook, with some acknowledging employment market risks while others remain focused on persistent inflation in the service sector [2][3]. - Fed Governor Miran supports a 50 basis point cut, arguing that a 25 basis point reduction is too slow, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid is likely to oppose any cuts [2][3]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed may pause its balance sheet reduction, which has been a significant topic of discussion, as it seeks to balance policy consistency with market liquidity risks [3][5]. - Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, predict that the Fed will halt its balance sheet reduction due to recent signs of liquidity tightening in the money market [5][13]. - Indicators of liquidity stress include the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) briefly exceeding the upper limit of the federal funds rate target range and a significant drop in demand for the New York Fed's overnight reverse repo tool [5][13]. Group 3: Historical Context of Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet management has seen two major phases: aggressive expansion during the pandemic and a cautious approach to reduction post-pandemic [6][11]. - The first round of balance sheet reduction from 2017 to 2019 ended abruptly due to liquidity issues, leading to a spike in repo market rates [11][14]. - The current environment suggests that further balance sheet reduction could replicate past liquidity crises, prompting calls for a halt to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2019 [11][14]. Group 4: Economic Data and Future Guidance - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a lack of reliable economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding future rate cuts [16][17]. - Analysts express concerns that upcoming labor market data may be distorted, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on its policy path [16][17]. - The market is closely watching Powell's statements for insights into the Fed's assessment of the economy and potential future easing measures, which could impact global liquidity and risk assets [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue to decline, while silver is expected to rebound with fluctuations. Copper's price increase is restricted by the hawkish outlook on interest rate cuts. Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound. Lead's price is supported by the continuous decrease in inventory. Tin's performance is subject to macro - economic impacts. Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 910.88 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 910.92 with a night - session increase of 0.69%. Comex Gold 2512 decreased by 0.67% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3, Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 232,686, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 801 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The leaders of China and the United States will meet in Busan, South Korea on Thursday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ended balance - sheet reduction in December, and Powell dampened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut at the end of the year [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11338 with a daily increase of 2.54%, and the night - session closing price was 11265.00 with a night - session increase of 0.64%. Comex Silver 2512 increased by 0.29% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1 [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: SLV Silver ETF's holdings remained unchanged, Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 4,494,628, and Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 3599 [4]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 88,710 with a daily increase of 1.99%, and the night - session closing price was 89130 with a night - session increase of 0.47%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.55%. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 101, and LME copper inventory increased by 775. The注销仓单 ratio of LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Despite the Fed's interest rate cut and end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%. Antofagasta's Q3 copper production increased by 1% quarter - on - quarter, and Anglo American's Q3 copper production was higher than the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year. Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22430 with a 0.54% increase, while the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [11]. - **News**: The leaders of China and the United States will meet, which is considered important for stabilizing Sino - US relations [11]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract remained unchanged at 17355, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [14]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 100, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4800 [14]. - **News**: The Fed's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%, and the leaders of China and the United States will meet [15]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 286,720 with a 1.25% increase, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.29%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.61%. The trend strength is 0 [17]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 73, and LME tin inventory increased by 130 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, including Sino - US leader meeting, Fed's interest rate decision, etc. [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [21][23]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 61.60 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. South Korea and the United States reached a trade agreement, with South Korea promising to invest $350 billion in the United States [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [24]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area, expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued a new regulation on mining business plans and budgets [24][25].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, a decrease of 25 basis points[2] - This marks the first consecutive rate cut in a year, following the initial cut earlier this year[2] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, after three and a half years of contraction, with total assets shrinking from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000[3] - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was below expectations, alleviating concerns about inflation driven by tariffs[3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated widespread low demand for labor across various regions and sectors[3] Group 3: Market Liquidity and Risks - Recent liquidity pressures in the money market have led to a rise in repo rates, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching a high of 4.5%[5] - The total reserves in the banking system have fallen below $3 trillion, indicating a shift from "ample liquidity" to "tight liquidity"[5] - The Treasury's increased issuance of debt has withdrawn significant liquidity from the market, exacerbated by seasonal factors like tax payments[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for another rate cut in December, but it is not guaranteed, as some officials advocate for a pause[6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts is heightened by the ongoing government shutdown and its impact on economic data availability[7] - The Fed's policy path in 2026 may depend heavily on economic and employment data trends, with an expected median rate of 3.4% indicating room for about two more cuts[8]

韩美敲定贸易协议，韩国承诺3500亿美元对美投资，换取汽车15%关税、半导体产业关税优待。 昨日，贵金属价格普遍偏弱，COMEX黄金期货跌1.04%报3941.7美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌0.1%报47.275 美元/盎司。沪金、沪银日内有所回落，沪金再次测试900元/克的支撑。 美联储10月会议宣布继续降息25基点，12月结束缩表，两票委反对利率决议。 鲍威尔表示，12月再降息并非板上钉钉，委员会分歧大，就业市场仍在降温，通胀短期有上行压力。 美加贸易谈判中止后，特朗普与卡尼首次会面。加拿大总理卡尼表示，他与美国总统特朗普当地时间29日在韩 国进行了"非常好"的谈话。 10月议息会议结果偏鹰，鲍威尔暗示12月降息并非定局，且联储内部存在分歧，部分官员主张等待一个周期再 做决定。会议结果推动美元和美债利率反弹，利空金银。 ...

宏观 10 月 FOMC：鲍威尔意外表示 12 月 降息仍有变数 证券研究报告 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月 1 日开始结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），表态偏鹰派。 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率降至 3.75%-4%，Miran 要求降息 50bp，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德要求不降息；同时，联储宣布从 12 月 1 日 起停止缩表。会前市场普遍定价联储 12 月会议再降息 25bp，但鲍威尔在记 者会中表示，12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），需观 察后续数据再做决定。鲍威尔表态偏鹰派导致市场降息预期回落，美元有所 回升。截至北京时间凌晨 4:30，相较会议前，对 2025 年 12 月、2026 年降 息预期分别收窄 4bp、1bp 至 17bp、69bp；2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 8bp、6bp 至 3.59%、4.07%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.2；标普 500、道指 分别下跌 0.2%、0.4%，纳指基本持平，黄金下跌 1.1 ...

Group 1: Australian Economic Outlook - Australia's inflation data for Q3 significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a diminished likelihood of a rate cut next week [1] - Westpac has retracted its prediction for a November rate cut, with its chief economist indicating that even a potential cut in February 2024 is now uncertain [1] - Commonwealth Bank (CBA) believes the RBA's rate cut cycle has ended, projecting that the cash rate of 3.60% will be maintained long-term due to rising inflation [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4% [5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the decision to halt the balance sheet reduction starting in December aligns with market expectations, but future rate cuts remain uncertain [6][7] - The Fed's actions have provided some support to the US dollar, causing the Australian dollar to retreat from its recent gains [9][10] Group 3: Tax Deadline in Australia - The deadline for self-filing taxes in Australia is October 31, with penalties starting at 330 AUD for late submissions [16] - The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) may consider individual circumstances for late submissions, potentially waiving penalties [16] Group 4: Airline Promotions - Qantas has launched a major international ticket sale, offering over 300,000 discounted tickets to 27 popular destinations, with one-way fares starting at 299 AUD [20] - The promotion includes special fares for flights from Sydney to Los Angeles at 999 AUD, and from Sydney to Santiago at 1599 AUD, following visa-free entry for Australian citizens [20][22]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but maintains a hawkish stance regarding future rate cuts, indicating no consensus on a December rate cut due to the stable employment market [1][3] - The Fed has officially decided to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, ceasing the monthly liquidity contraction of $40 billion, and will adjust the structure of maturing asset reinvestments to focus on Treasury securities instead of MBS [2][6] - Powell highlighted that the government shutdown could negatively impact the economy, with previous estimates suggesting a $18 billion loss, but current employment and inflation trends remain stable [3][5] Group 2 - The Fed's description of inflation and employment remains largely unchanged, but the economic outlook has become more optimistic, indicating moderate economic expansion [2][3] - The current level of bank reserves is approaching a liquidity threshold of 9% of GDP, which is critical for maintaining financial stability, as a drop below this level could lead to liquidity risks [6][7] - The potential for the Fed to restart normal balance sheet expansion is contingent on the increase of non-reserve liabilities, which currently represent 53% of the Fed's total liabilities, still below the 60.6% observed in September 2019 [8] Group 3 - The average tariff level in the U.S. is projected to rise from 2.4% to 17.9% by 2025, contributing to higher CPI for imported goods, with current consumer exposure to tariffs at approximately 35% [4][5] - The transmission of tariffs to inflation may increase, potentially invalidating the notion of "transitory inflation" as the burden shifts more towards consumers [4][5] - The dollar index is expected to remain stable around 100, supported by resilient corporate capital expenditures, while the stock market outlook remains positive due to the synergy between AI investments and economic growth [9][10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25% 10月30日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%，即时生效。 | 公布时间 | 指标周期 | 预测值 | 前值 | 公布值 | 变动值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-30 07:00 | 截至2025年10月30日 | | 4.5 | 4.25 | -0.25 | | 2025-09-18 08:00 | 截至2025年9月18日 | | 4.75 | 4.5 | -0.25 | | 2025-07-31 07:00 | 截至2025年7月31日 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-06-19 07:00 | 截至2025年6月19日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-05-08 07:00 | 截至2025年5月8日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | | 2025-03-20 09:00 | 截至2025年3月20日 | | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 ...

美联储如期降息25基点并宣布12月1日起停止缩表（避免当前流动性有所收紧下重现2019年“钱荒”），此前市场已对此充分计价，焦点更多集中在后续降息路径上。本次会议偏鹰派。鲍威尔表示美联储内部对12月份是否继续降息分歧加大，越来越多的人认为或许应该等待一次。市场对此反应剧烈，美债利率大幅走高近10基点、美元同样冲高、美股与黄金调整。经过9月和10月接连两次降息后，利率已有所调整来应对“已知”的就业压力，但政府关门停摆无法提供更多新增经济信息，所以鲍威尔担心“盲飞”前进太快，适得其反。所以从这点看，美联储似乎有理由和动力12月暂停降息，观察后续变化。预计在短期内，政府关门的影响会使市场对继续让“宽松交易”受挫。 ...