6月4日亚市早盘，现货黄金延续调整态势，开盘报3353.80美元/盎司，盘中最低触及3341.20美元，较前一交易日收盘价下 跌0.85%。今日早盘一小时内拉升至3370美元，当前交投于此附近。美元指数受美联储鹰派言论提振反弹0.52%至99.15， 创一周新高，以美元计价的黄金短期承压。与此同时，特朗普政府钢铝关税提至50%政策正式生效，全球贸易不确定性骤 增，黄金日内波动幅度扩大至12美元，市场多空博弈加剧。 | - 现货黄金 XAUUSD | | | --- | --- | | 3371.72 +18.35 (+0.55%) | | | ● 开市 最后更新:10:15:36 | | | 报价 资讯 相关品种 | | | 昨收 3353.37 最高 | 3372.55 | | 开盘 3354.20 最低 | 3346.47 | | 买入 3371.72 卖出 | 3371.92 | 一、美元反弹与关税政策双杀金价 1.美元指数强势反弹压制金价 美联储理事沃勒6月3日讲话释放鹰派信号，强调"若通胀反弹不排除推迟降息"，市场对9月降息概率从87%回落至72%， 美元指数隔夜跳涨0.75%。芝加哥商业交易所（C ...

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to fluctuations in price movements [1] - The focus should be on strategies to protect capital and respond to market changes rather than predicting market direction [1] Gold Market Analysis - On May 29, spot gold experienced fluctuations, opening at $3285.91 per ounce, reaching a high of $3294.46, and a low of $3245.29, closing at $3280.01, reflecting a decline of 0.34% [1] - Gold prices have fallen for four consecutive days due to multiple factors: a U.S. court ruling boosting market risk appetite, a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent decline, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly due to delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE price index release, which will provide critical guidance for assessing the Fed's policy direction and future gold price trends [1] Technical Analysis - The current prediction for gold indicates a potential downward adjustment from $3365, with two possible scenarios: one suggesting a five-wave upward movement and the other indicating a three-wave ABC structure [2] - The recent drop below the key support level of $3280 confirms the three-wave ABC structure, suggesting that gold may not reach new highs in the short term and is currently in the final Z-wave downward adjustment [2] Trading Strategy - A short position strategy is recommended: if gold rebounds to the $3300-$3310 range and faces resistance, a light short position can be initiated with a stop-loss above $3320 and a target set at $3270-$3280 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. Federal Court ruling has boosted market risk sentiment, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand and a decline in gold prices for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-and-a-half-week low [1] - Multiple factors are pressuring gold prices, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent weakness in gold prices due to a rebound in the dollar and decreased safe-haven demand, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. PCE price index on Friday is highlighted as an important reference point for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and gold price trends [1] - The short-term gold price trend is indicated to be weak, with the Bollinger Bands showing an upward opening, while the short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, continuing to exert pressure on gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes maintaining a low long position, focusing on buying opportunities after pullbacks, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading [2][3]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - On May 27, LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with prices reaching a two-week high earlier in the session [1] - LME three-month copper closed down $13.50 or 0.14% at $9,596.5 per ton, after hitting a peak of $9,640 since May 14 [1] - U.S. Comex copper dropped 2% to $4.74 per pound, with a premium over LME copper reaching $855 per ton [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Ivanhoe Mines announced a suspension of its production forecast due to seismic activity at its giant mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is Africa's largest copper producer [6] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicated that if the Kakula mine remains closed for the rest of the year, it could lead to a supply reduction of approximately 150,000 tons, potentially increasing copper prices [6] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market surplus of 17,000 tons in March, down from an 18,000-ton surplus in February [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to April, profits of large industrial enterprises in China totaled 21,170.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [6] - In April, profits of large industrial enterprises in China grew by 3.0% year-on-year [6] - ICSG noted that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 289,000 tons in the first three months of the year, compared to a surplus of 268,000 tons in the same period last year [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in the trade war, indicating a temporary ceasefire which has implications for market dynamics, particularly in gold and currency markets [1] - It highlights the recent drop in gold prices, falling below $3200, and speculates on potential price corrections [1] - The upcoming appearance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is anticipated to influence the dollar's performance, suggesting a possible rebound [1] Group 1: Trade War and Market Impact - The trade war is currently in a "ceasefire" state, which may affect investor sentiment and market stability [1] - The implications of the trade war on commodity prices, particularly gold, are significant as it has recently dipped below $3200 [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a notable decline, raising questions about potential future corrections and price levels [1] - The analysis suggests that the market is closely monitoring gold's performance in light of geopolitical and economic factors [1] Group 3: Currency Market Outlook - The article points to Jerome Powell's upcoming statements as a critical factor that could lead to a rebound in the dollar [1] - The relationship between the dollar's strength and gold prices is emphasized, indicating that shifts in currency value could impact gold's market trajectory [1]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade relations and positive signals from the Geneva trade talks have led to a rebound in global stock markets, reducing the safe-haven appeal of gold [2] - Geopolitical risks have also diminished with signs of peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, further weakening gold's demand as a safe haven [2] - US economic data shows resilience, and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve reinforce expectations for high interest rates, which diminishes the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index has rebounded, surpassing the 101 mark, which typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices due to their negative correlation [2] - The spot gold price opened at 3249.83 CNY/oz and experienced a significant pullback, reaching a low of 3168.06 CNY/oz, indicating strong bearish momentum [4] - The daily closing price fell below the 20-day moving average and broke through previous key low points, signaling a bearish trend [4] Group 3 - Silver opened at 32.894 CNY/oz and followed gold's downward trend, but has not yet broken through its recent trading range, indicating a weaker performance compared to gold [6] - The closing price for silver fell below the 20-day moving average, suggesting a bearish direction [6] - Current price movements for silver are within a significant oscillation range, with a focus on the support level at 31.700 CNY/oz [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market may be on the verge of a reversal due to record short positions in the US dollar, with potential for a significant rebound if positive news arises from trade negotiations [1] - Speculators have reached the highest net short position against the dollar since the end of 2020, indicating a comprehensive bearish sentiment towards the dollar across both developed and emerging market currencies [1] - Technical analysts warn that such extreme market positioning could trigger a chain reaction if positive news forces short positions to cover, leading to a potential rebound in the dollar [1] Group 2 - A significant rebound in the dollar would have profound implications for global markets, particularly impacting emerging market currencies and commodities, with gold likely facing notable corrections [2] - Gold's high return/risk ratio makes it susceptible to cyclical declines, especially in the context of a strong dollar rebound [2]

智通财经APP获悉，在特朗普扬言解雇美联储主席鲍威尔与经济衰退风险双重夹击下，美元本周持续承 压，跌至2023年12月以来最低点。市场分析师警告，当前极度看空的情绪或正酝酿技术性反弹契机。 瑞穗银行首席亚洲外汇策略师Ken Cheung指出："美元反弹窗口正在打开——即便可能只是短暂行 情。"他分析称，当前美元净空头仓位已堆积至创纪录水平，技术指标显示超卖状态，而美债收益率相 对优势仍然存在，这些要素共同构成了反弹动能，尽管其涨幅可能受到美元负面消息的限制。 彭博美元现货指数的相对强弱指数已跌至 2020 年以来的最低水平，这表明美元自今年 2 月份高点下跌 近 10% 可能有些过度。历史数据显示，2023年7月当彭博美元现货指数RSI(相对强弱指数)跌至类似低 位后，美元在三个月内反弹幅度达7%。 值得注意的是，投机者正在以前所未有的规模做空美元。根据CFTC最新数据，上周美元兑10种主要货 币的净空头仓位激增至400亿美元，创下去年10月以来新高。 华侨银行外汇策略师Christopher Wong提醒："当前美元抛售已显过度痕迹，做空美元成为市场共识交 易，需警惕空头回补引发的踩踏行情。" 图1 在负面 ...