Group 1 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) experienced a decline of over 6%, currently down 5.82% at HKD 13.26, with a trading volume of HKD 75.883 million [1] - The company announced that its subsidiary, China Nonferrous Africa Mining, has completed all repairs on the auxiliary shaft of the Qianbixi Southeast ore body since the remediation began in September, with main shaft repairs currently underway [1] - The total repair work is expected to be completed by mid-December this year, during which the Qianbixi Southeast ore body will temporarily cease production [1] Group 2 - As a result of the repair work, the company has adjusted its 2025 annual production plan, reducing copper output from 160,000 tons to 140,000 tons [1] - Recent data from the U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with new jobs added at 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%, with previous months' employment figures being significantly revised down [1] - This labor report is the last one before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, potentially complicating decision-making for the upcoming policy meeting [1]

Group 1 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) has seen a decline of over 6%, currently down 5.82% at HKD 13.26, with a trading volume of HKD 75.883 million [1] - The company announced that its subsidiary, China Nonferrous Africa Mining, has completed all repairs on the auxiliary shaft of the Qianbixi Southeast ore body since the start of remediation in September, with main shaft repairs currently underway [1] - Full repair work is expected to be completed by mid-December this year, during which the Qianbixi Southeast ore body will temporarily cease production [1] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its 2025 production plan, reducing copper output from 160,000 tons to 140,000 tons [1] - Recent U.S. employment data showed conflicting signals, with new jobs added at 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4% [1] - The employment report, being the last before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, may complicate decision-making, contributing to a decline in copper prices following the data release [1]

Core Viewpoint - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history will lead to a release of accumulated economic data, providing critical insights for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation [1] Economic Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Labor Department have announced a detailed schedule for the release of economic data starting next week [1] - Key dates include: - November 20: Release of the September non-farm payroll report [1] - November 21: Release of September real wage data [1] - November 26: Release of the revised Q3 GDP, along with October personal income, spending, and PCE price index [1] - December 4: Release of the October international trade report [1] - December 19: Release of the final Q3 GDP [1] Federal Reserve's Data Considerations - According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the Federal Reserve will have access to complete data on employment, inflation, retail sales, and preliminary Q3 GDP before its meeting on December 9-10 [1] - The timely release of the October and November employment reports is crucial for the Federal Reserve's assessment [1]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, following the signing of a temporary funding bill by President Trump [1][2] - The shutdown has left a significant impact on economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions [2][3] Economic Data Impact - During the shutdown, the Labor Statistics Bureau's data collection was affected, leading to delays in the release of key economic reports, including the October CPI data [2][3] - The market is currently experiencing a "data blackout" period, which may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions at its December meeting [2][3] Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is complicated by the lack of complete data, increasing uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have decreased from 70% to approximately 50% [4] Political Landscape and Future Risks - The temporary funding bill only extends government operations until January 30, suggesting a potential for another shutdown in the near future [5][6] - The ongoing political polarization in the U.S. may lead to repeated budgetary crises, impacting economic stability and investor confidence [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term outlooks are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait and see" due to Sino - US trade easing and the Fed's hawkish stance [1] - For copper, the short - term and mid - term outlooks are both "rising", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "bullish in the long - term" because of macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the mid - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait and see" [3] - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the gold price stabilized in oscillation. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts were interpreted as hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The gold price rebounded despite the Fed's hawkishness and the rising US dollar index, possibly due to short - term market reaction to the exhaustion of negative news. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the tug - of - war at the $4000 mark [3] Copper (CU) - The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the mid - term view is "rising", and the reference view is "bullish in the long - term" [4] - The copper price weakened in the overnight session, with the main contract price falling below 87,000 and the open interest slightly decreasing. After the October Fed's interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. The Fed's hawkish stance cooled the rate - cut expectation, the US dollar index rebounded, which was negative for the copper price. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 100 mark of the US dollar index. Also, the copper price has risen significantly since late September, facing historical high - level pressure in the short term, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to close positions. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [4]

Group 1 - The precious metals market continued its adjustment trend from October 27 to October 31, with a temporary easing of tensions in the US-China relationship following a summit meeting [1][2] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but expressed uncertainty regarding future actions in December, indicating a more hawkish tone [1][2] - The recent adjustment in domestic gold VAT policy may lead to increased costs for physical gold investments, potentially suppressing short-term demand [1][2] Group 2 - Following the easing of trade tensions and the results of the October Federal Reserve meeting, the gold market is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment pattern in November [2] - The next significant focus for the market will be the December Federal Reserve meeting, which will provide economic forecasts for 2026, potentially influencing future interest rate decisions [2] - The adjustment in VAT policy for gold distinguishes between investment and non-investment uses, leading to higher costs for investment gold products [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, in the long - term, steel prices' upward logic remains unchanged under the increasingly loose macro - environment. However, in the short - term, the actual demand for steel is still weak and unlikely to improve substantially. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks and overseas macro - environment changes on market sentiment [2]. - For the iron ore market, the price is expected to fluctuate. Although the supply is increasing and the demand is weakening with the decline of iron - making water production, the positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the expected interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve have an impact on the market [5]. - For the black metal sector, the outlook is not pessimistic. It is considered more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after price corrections rather than short - selling. The downward momentum of the black metal sector has significantly weakened after nearly four years of decline [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment in the short - term, and the cost provides some support [14]. - For polysilicon, the supply pressure may be marginally relieved, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The price is affected by policy expectations and industry news, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation [16]. - For glass, the futures price rebounded due to short - position exits, and the market's bearish sentiment eased. Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends and the operation of production lines in the Shahe area [19]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term due to the combination of cost support and high inventory [21]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (1.358%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1221 tons to 124,540 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 36,350 lots to 1.894 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 30 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3345 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.210%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3402 tons to 104,773 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 12,738 lots to 1.461 million lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 30 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Strategic Views** - Macroscopically, real - estate investment will shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement", and the new construction area is unlikely to increase significantly. Fundamentally, rebar's supply and demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline; the output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, demand improved marginally, and inventory reduction accelerated [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.51% (+12.00). The open interest decreased by 6094 lots to 542,900 lots, and the weighted open interest was 916,500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.06 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.08% [4]. - **Strategic Views** - The supply of iron ore is increasing, with the overseas shipment volume at a high level. The demand is weakening as the daily average iron - making water production has dropped below 240,000 tons. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, positive macro - signals may affect the market [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On October 29, affected by the market atmosphere and other factors, the price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon rebounded. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 1.07% at 5852 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 58 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.54% at 5594 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 56 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategic Views** - The supply of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may be restricted in the future. Currently, steel mills are facing difficulties due to high supply and low demand, and there is a risk of "negative feedback". The outlook for the black metal sector is not pessimistic, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black metal sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9170 yuan/ton, up 2.40% (+215). The weighted open interest decreased by 693 lots to 432,693 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton for the main contract [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 1.17% (+635). The weighted open interest decreased by 5722 lots to 250,114 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type dense material decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg to 51 yuan/kg [15]. - **Strategic Views** - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment in the short - term, and the cost provides some support [14]. - For polysilicon, the supply pressure may be marginally relieved, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The price is affected by policy expectations and industry news, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1113 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 1.64% (+18). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 233.74 million cases (3.64%) to 66.613 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 4570 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 19,408 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 0.56% (-7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.16 million tons (3.64%) to 1.7021 million tons, with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 0.62 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 0.78 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 6034 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 36,087 short positions [20]. - **Strategic Views** - The glass futures price rebounded due to short - position exits, and the market's bearish sentiment eased. Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends and the operation of production lines in the Shahe area [19]. - The soda ash price is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term due to the combination of cost support and high inventory [21].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a significant milestone by closing above the 4000-point mark for the first time in 11 years, indicating a cautious yet optimistic market sentiment [1] Market Performance - On October 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 4000 points after a period of fluctuations, marking a notable achievement for the market [1] - Despite the index's rise, the average stock price has only returned to levels seen on October 9, suggesting that many stocks have not reached new highs [1] - Approximately 90% of stocks have not set new highs, indicating that the market is still in a consolidation phase rather than a strong upward trend [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a surge in attention and interest as the index surpasses 4000 points, with expectations of significant changes following the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] - The next trading day is seen as critical, with potential for volatility depending on market reactions to any positive news, emphasizing the importance of market support levels [1]