Market Sentiment - The latest US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is reported at 618 points, with a 7-day moving average of 556 points, indicating an overall downward trend [3][7][8] - The sentiment indicator from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that 51.5% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while 29.4% are bullish, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.57, an increase from the previous value of 0.35 [3][9] - The Fear and Greed Index improved rapidly last week, closing at 62 points, moving from 'neutral' to 'greed', and remained in the 'greed' zone throughout the week [3][10] Global Market Overview - The global equity market experienced a weekly decline of 0.3%, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, which saw a decline of 0.3% [12] - Bitcoin showed exceptional performance with a weekly increase of 6.3%, making it the best-performing asset class for the week, while gold rose by 2.6% [12] US Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.5% for the week, while the seven major tech stocks fell by 0.7%, and the Golden Dragon Index weakened with a 1.5% drop [12][13] - In terms of investment style, small-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks, and large-cap growth stocks outperformed small-cap growth stocks [12][13] Industry Performance - Among the 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 18 showed gains, with coal, electrical equipment, and textile apparel among the top performers [15] - A total of 21 secondary industries outperformed the S&P 500 index, which declined by 0.5% [15] Valuation Metrics - As of now, 360 S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with 76% (274 companies) exceeding EPS expectations, slightly above the 10-year average of 75% [3] - The current S&P 500 PE (TTM) is at 25.3 times, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5 times, placing it in the 70th percentile over the past decade [3][10] - The forward PE for the S&P 500 decreased slightly from approximately 21.7 times to 21.6 times, while forward EPS fell from $262.4 to $261.7, a decline of about 0.3% [3][10] Strategy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and balance sheet reduction in May, aligning with expectations, and emphasized the significant uncertainty of tariff policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - The report suggests that the worst of tariff uncertainty has passed, with expectations of more countries gradually signing trade agreements with the US [3] - The S&P 500 valuation is not considered high, and earnings are performing well, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the market [3]

有色金属日报 2025-5-12 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 国内黑色系商品延续弱势，铝价受影响走势偏弱，不过库存重新去化使得铝价短线企稳，昨日伦铝收 涨 1.18%至 2408 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 19570 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量 58.3 万手， 环比增加 2.6 万手，盘面空头继续增仓，期货仓单 6.6 万吨，环比减少 0.3 万吨，总体维持偏低水 平。根据 SMM 统计，国内铝锭社会库存环比周二减少 1.6 万吨，至 62 万吨，铝棒库 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bearish, with a mid - term view of oscillation, and a short - term weakening outlook. The core logic is that Sino - US relations are tending to ease, which is negative for gold prices. For nickel, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, suggesting a wait - and - see approach due to strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Technical Support**: Last week, the gold price rose and then fell. New York gold has strong technical support at $3300, corresponding to the 780 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. - **Market Drivers**: After the Fed's hawkish stance in the May 8th meeting, the US dollar index rebounded from the bottom, causing the gold price to fall. The Sino - US trade situation is tending to ease, which will put pressure on the gold price. Attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 780 - yuan level of Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward, then rebounded sharply on the night of Friday, regaining the weekly decline and standing above the 126,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban from June 2025 has pushed the nickel price to rebound. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand side is weak. Stainless steel inventory is high and the price is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. Technically, the futures price may face some pressure at the late - April high [4].

美联储议息会议是影响全球金融市场的核心事件之一，尤其是对黄金价格走势具有决定性作用。在这 里，领峰环球(acetoptg.top/JfSTFg)将从议息会议的基本概念、对黄金的影响逻辑等角度，帮助新手投资 者快速掌握关键要点，高效捕捉议息行情。 一、议息会议的核心作用 美联储通过议息会议决定基准利率水平，这直接影响美元流动性、实际利率和全球资产定价。例如，若 美联储降息，美元贬值压力增大，黄金作为无息资产更具吸引力；反之，加息可能压制金价。 当前市场关注的焦点是美联储的政策走向。比如2025年5月的议息会议，市场预期美联储可能按兵不 动，且有分析人士认为此次会议鲍威尔可能会继续以"鹰派"基调反驳市场对美联储降息的预期，其将在 利率决议公布后的新闻发布会中的言论成为市场关注重点。 ·通胀与增长的平衡：尽管美国短期通胀压力缓解，但美国新关税政策可能推升进口成本，迫使美联储 在"抑制通胀"与"刺激经济"间艰难抉择。 ·内部意见分化：部分官员支持继续降息以应对潜在衰退，另一派则担忧过早宽松加剧通胀。这种分歧 导致市场预期波动。 (2)市场预期与实际决议的差异：若决议符合预期，市场反应可能平淡；若超预期(如降息幅度更大 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：五一期间金价先抑后扬，伦敦金由 3300 美元一度跌至 3200 美元一线，随后触底回升， 收复前期跌幅。节后开盘首日，金价维持强势运行，伦敦金由 3300 关口拉升至 3400 关口。4 月底金 价下挫我们认为是短期累积涨幅过大，且美国方面对关税政策有所松口，市场风险偏好回升，避险需 求下降，多头了结意愿上升。而本周以来期价快速反弹，很大程度上也说明了多头支撑较强。短期技 术面可关注伦敦金 3400 关口技术压力，沪金关注 800 元技术压力。消息面上，5 月 7 日外交部发言 人宣布我国副总理将在访瑞期间与美国财政部长举行会谈，中美关系趋于缓和，或导致金价冲高回 落。此外，可关注北京时间周四凌晨美联储议息会议结果。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].

贵金属产业日报 2025-05-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 794.8 | 14.5 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8235 | 53 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 127407 | -33 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 232016 | -8527 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 97109 | 5818 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 124776 | -13760 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 959785 | 96 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 792.31 | 11.02 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8236 | 43 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -4.89 | -5.88 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | 1 | -1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a steepening yield curve ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [1] - The increase in yields is influenced by recent employment data, which is constraining the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] - Economists at Pimco predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates before later this year unless there is a significant slowdown or contraction in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have shown a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact - In early April, copper prices dropped significantly due to concerns over U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," reaching a low of 71,320 yuan/ton after the Qingming holiday [1]. - Following the announcement on April 9 to delay high tariffs on some trade partners, global markets, including copper, rebounded sharply [2]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards stability, with the negative impact of U.S. tariff policies diminishing [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining operations remain stable, with minor disruptions reported, such as protests affecting the Antapaccay copper mine in Peru and a worker's death at the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile [3]. - There are signs of easing in copper concentrate supply, with the Panamanian government allowing exports and other mines showing potential for increased output [3]. - As of mid-April, the import copper concentrate processing fee was reported at -34.71 USD/ton, indicating a continued decline over three months [3]. Group 3: Copper and Scrap Price Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has narrowed significantly, reaching a low of 450 yuan/ton in mid-April, the lowest since October 2023 [4]. - The decline in copper prices has led to reduced sales volumes from scrap copper holders, impacting production levels [4]. - Despite negative processing fees for imported copper concentrate, domestic smelting rates have increased, reaching 87.68% by the end of March [4]. Group 4: Consumption Trends - The operating levels of refined copper rod enterprises are higher than in previous years, primarily due to insufficient scrap copper production rather than increased end-user demand [5]. - Seasonal trends in the air conditioning industry suggest a potential decline in copper demand in May, as production enters a down cycle [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to see a seasonal uptick in May, but the actual demand may be limited due to prior fulfillment of needs through subsidies [6]. Group 5: Price Outlook - Overall, driven by supply dynamics, copper prices are expected to continue their upward recovery in May [6].