芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

型劇现日报 聚烯烃广 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月2日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7214 | 7228 | -14 | -0.19% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7249 | 7261 | -12 | -0.17% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | eaal | 7012 | -16 | -0.23% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7044 | 7070 | -26 | -0.37% | | | L2509-2601 | રેટ | 33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | PP2509-2601 | 48 | 58 | -10 | -17.24% | TT/04 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7110 | 7150 | -40 | -0.56% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7200 | -30 | -0.42% | | | 华北塑料基差 | -8 ...

| 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4800 | 4273 | 6592 | 499.4 | | | 涨跌 | 6796 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 2.7 | | | 涨跌幅 | -2 | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.76% | 0.54% | | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 160 | 126 | -21 | 110 | 6.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 194 | 144 | -27 | 78 | 7.2 | | | 涨跌 | -34 | -18 | 6 | 32 | -0.6 | | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | | 金/吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/1 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.5 | 496. 7 | -1.80 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,盘中PX行情偏强,成本支撑PTA。 或担忧下游聚酯减产,PTA现货基差走弱。 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1155. 4 | 1188. 4 | 33. 08 | | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3189 | 1. 3292 | 0. 0103 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 868 | 874 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 298 | 304 | 6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | ...

Group 1: Methanol - High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The futures market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a phase of bearish factors materializing. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - conditions and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine a clear direction for single - sided trading. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [1] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily change in the Jiangsu spot price was - 10, the South China spot price was - 22, the Lunan converted price was + 18, and the Northwest converted price was + 33. Other prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [1] Group 2: Polyethylene (Plastic) - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of 09 contract is around 0 in North China and + 120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. In June, the number of maintenance activities is decreasing month - on - month, and the domestic linear production is increasing. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. The new production facilities in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on their commissioning [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on June 23rd. The daily change in the North China LL price was - 5, the East China LD price was - 50, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [11] Group 3: Polypropylene (PP) - The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is + 100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene prices are oscillating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. In June, the supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH plant maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Shandong propylene price increased by 390, the East China PP price decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 13 [11] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream start - up is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In summer, the northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In June, focus on the commissioning of new facilities and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are decent. In June, pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision. Coal prices are weak, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level but is continuously decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the northwest calcium carbide price increased by 25, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 25, and other prices remained unchanged [12][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran and the conflict between Israel and other regions have escalated, leading to expectations of continued oil price increases, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. [2] - The downstream load of polyester remains at 91.3% despite the expected reduction, and the actual production of polyester has reached a new high. Recent promotions have helped with inventory reduction. [2] - PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period. The action of major factories to increase the basis for sales has had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. [2] - The ethylene price increase has strengthened the cost - side, and the export of Iranian petrochemicals is expected to be affected. However, the overall import volume of ethylene glycol from Iran is limited. [2] - Ethylene glycol continues to reduce inventory, with a decrease in arrivals. The reduction in polyester production has a certain impact on the market, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol has changed little. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, to 566.6 yuan/barrel on June 20, 2025, a decrease of 4.30 yuan/barrel. [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 839.2 yuan/ton to 860.5 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2023 to 1.2090. PTA主力期价 decreased from 4988 yuan/ton to 4978 yuan/ton, while the spot price increased from 5190 yuan/ton to 5275 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased from 324.7 yuan/ton to 390.3 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased slightly from 270 to 269. PTA仓单数量 decreased from 37468 to 36804. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 904 to 896, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 271 to 250. [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4539 yuan/ton to 4501 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha spread increased slightly from (135.53) to (134.72). MEG内盘 price increased from 4585 to 4594, and the basis increased from 82 to 86. [2] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: PX开工率 remained at 82.70%, PTA开工率 remained at 78.56%, MEG开工率 increased slightly from 57.88% to 57.91%, and polyester负荷 increased from 89.98% to 90.16%. [2] - **Polyester Products**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F, 1.4D直纺涤短, and semi - light切片 all increased. The cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY, and切片 all decreased, while the cash flow of涤短 increased. The long - filament sales rate increased from 31% to 33%, the short - fiber sales rate decreased from 61% to 53%, and the切片 sales rate decreased from 42% to 39%. [2] 2. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated, with Israel attacking Iranian oil - field facilities and Iran responding. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow [2]. - PTA is expected to reduce inventory in the coming period. The actions of major factories to increase the basis for sales have had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. Polyester has recently rapidly reduced inventory, and the inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, market purchasing willingness has increased [2]. - For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, the conflict escalation may affect Iran's petrochemical exports. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit has expanded, and the recent blockage of ethane imports from the United States has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol will continue the inventory - reduction rhythm, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 552.7 yuan/barrel on June 18, 2025, to 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, an increase of 18.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 897.5 yuan/ton to 839.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.26 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2234 to 1.2023, a decrease of 0.0212; PTA main - contract futures price rose from 4914 yuan/ton to 4988 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price remained at 5190 yuan/ton; spot processing fee decreased from 409.2 yuan/ton to 324.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.5 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee decreased from 103.2 yuan/ton to 92.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton; main - contract basis decreased from 293 to 270, a decrease of 23.0; PTA warehouse - receipt quantity decreased from 80591 to 37468, a decrease of 43123 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main - contract futures price rose from 4471 yuan/ton to 4539 yuan/ton, an increase of 68.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (129.84) yuan/ton to (127.03) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 4529 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; main - contract basis increased from 82 to 86, an increase of 4.0 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 888 to 904, an increase of 16; PX - naphtha spread rose from 262 to 271, an increase of 9; PX operating rate decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.80% to 78.56%, a decrease of 5.24% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Increased from 56.16% to 57.88%, an increase of 1.72% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 89.99% to 89.98%, a decrease of 0.01% [2]. Product Price and Cash - flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 7130 to 7120, a decrease of 10.0; POY cash - flow decreased from (75) to (103), a decrease of 28.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 7445; FDY cash - flow decreased from (260) to (278), a decrease of 18.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 8370 to 8390, an increase of 20.0; DTY cash - flow increased from (35) to (33), an increase of 2.0; filament sales rate decreased from 59% to 31%, a decrease of 28% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6835 to 6890, an increase of 55; staple - fiber cash - flow increased from (20) to 17, an increase of 37.0; staple - fiber sales rate decreased from 64% to 61%, a decrease of 3% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip decreased from 6055 to 6050, a decrease of 5.0; chip cash - flow decreased from (250) to (273), a decrease of 23.0; chip sales rate increased from 40% to 42%, an increase of 2% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 1.5 - million - ton PTA device has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6; an East - China 3 - million - ton PTA device has recently shut down for maintenance, expected to last about 10 days [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, both domestic and imported PX supplies are tight, leading to a continuous upward trend. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. The PXN spread has expanded to $261/ton, and short - term calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term and sell far - term) is advisable [7][8]. - PTA: Supported by cost factors, both the single - side position and the calendar and basis spreads are strong. Despite increased maintenance by polyester bottle - chip and short - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, causing the basis to strengthen significantly [8]. - MEG: With the shutdown of Iranian ethylene glycol plants, MEG is expected to be in a short - term upward - trending and volatile state. It is recommended to reduce the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Attention should be paid to the operating status and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Variation**: On June 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7094, 4988, 4539, 6794, and 3998 respectively, with daily changes of 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 2.0% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: The PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 calendar spreads on June 19 were 272, 206, 23, 74, and - 469 respectively, with daily changes of 52, 38, 7, 28, and 50 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 spreads on June 19 were 377, 449, - 1636, 887, and 1040 respectively, with daily changes of 5, 6, - 26, 20, and 12 [1]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spreads on June 19 were 251, 270, 85, - 4, and 255 respectively, with daily changes of - 106, - 60, - 1, - 48, and no change [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, the PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 37468, 6052, 5464, 0, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 43123, no change, no change, - 5, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On June 19, the PX price continued to rise, with an estimated price of $904/ton, up $16 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread expanded to $261.38/ton. The PTA operating rate in China dropped from 82.6% to 79.1% due to plant maintenance, while the polyester operating rate was estimated at 92%, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - **PTA Market**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast has shut down, and a 4.5 - million - ton plant in the South is gradually shutting down for about two months of maintenance. The PTA operating rate has dropped, and the Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3 2.5 - million - ton plant has started production and is operating at over 90% capacity [4][5]. - **MEG Market**: Two ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a combined capacity of 1.4 million tons/year are scheduled to restart soon. As of June 19, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 70.33% (up 4.08% from the previous period), and a new 600,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan has been put into production [5][6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has increased slightly, with an overall theoretical operating rate of about 73.2%. As of Thursday, the polyester operating rate in mainland China was around 92%. On June 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average production - sales ratio of about 30% [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has signs of escalation, and oil prices have rebounded significantly. However, under the expectation of weak supply and demand, there is also significant pressure for oil prices to continue rising. If there is no further positive news, oil prices may face a correction. PX supply has increased significantly recently, and the supply - demand margin has weakened, but it still has support in the short term. PTA's supply - demand margin has also weakened, but it has support at low levels. Ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - fiber has a situation of weak supply and demand, and bottle - chip's supply - demand is expected to improve in June [2]. - **Methanol Industry**: The supply of methanol is generally in a loose pattern, and the demand side has a situation where MTO has mostly increased its load but downstream profits have deteriorated. The price can be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [21]. - **Styrene Industry**: The price of pure benzene has risen slightly, and the supply of styrene has increased. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The supply of caustic soda has declined recently, and there is pressure on supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive spread. PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a short - selling idea in the long term [71]. - **PE and PP Industry**: PE has a small increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, with limited supply pressure in June. PP has new capacity coming on - stream in June - July, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation [74]. - **Urea Industry**: The domestic urea market has a lackluster trading atmosphere, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the adjustment of summer agricultural fertilizer preparation and export policies can improve the situation [82]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight crude oil prices oscillated and declined due to the fading of geopolitical risk premiums. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach, pay attention to the expansion opportunities of the monthly spread on the arbitrage side, and consider buying a straddle structure on the options side [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On June 12, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.6% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15 per barrel, up 0.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6955 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; FDY150/96 price was 7210 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; DTY150/48 price was 8120 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX was at $818 per ton, up 0.7%; PX spot price (in RMB) was 6770 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price was 4855 yuan per ton, up 0.6%; TA futures 2509 was at 4620 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory was 63.4 million tons, up 2.1%; MEG to - port expectation was 12.8 million tons, up from 10.8 million tons [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate was 75.1%, up 3.1%; China PX operating rate was 87.0%, up 4.9%; PTA operating rate was 79.7%, up 4.0% [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price was 2353 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; MA2509 closing price was 2290 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; Taicang basis was 85 yuan per ton, up 6.92% [21]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.912%, up 2.33%; methanol port inventory was 65.2 million tons, up 12.22%; methanol social inventory was 103.1%, up 8.37% [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.14%, up 0.83%; downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 85.13%, up 0.72% [21]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.4 per barrel, down 0.6%; CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was at $780 per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 7815 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; EB2507 was at 7353 yuan per ton, up 0.1%; EB basis was 462 yuan per ton, up 12.4% [24]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Styrene CFR China was at $910 per ton, up 0.2%; styrene import profit was 174.6 yuan per ton, up 34.3% [25]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate was 77.2%, up 5.9%; styrene operating rate was 72.3%, up 0.4%; styrene integrated profit was 162.6 yuan per ton, down 61.2% [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2718.8 yuan per ton, unchanged; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4720 yuan per ton, unchanged [67]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda was at $410 per ton, unchanged; PVC CFR Southeast Asia was at $670 per ton, unchanged [67][68]. - **Supply - side Operating Rates and Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.9%, up 0.8%; PVC total operating rate was 77.5%, up 3.8%; external - procurement calcium - carbide - based PVC profit was - 912 yuan per ton, up 13.3% [69]. - **Demand - side Operating Rates**: Alumina industry operating rate was 78.8%, up 0.7%; viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 80.6%, unchanged [70]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 23.3 million tons, up 11.9%; PVC upstream factory inventory was 39.8 million tons, up 3.5% [71]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price was 7086 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; PP2601 closing price was 6918 yuan per ton, up 0.14%; East China PP drawbench spot price was 7040 yuan per ton, unchanged [74]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was 79.2%, up 2.27%; PP device operating rate was 78.6%, up 2.1% [74]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory was 50.9 million tons, down 1.74%; PP enterprise inventory was 58.1 million tons, down 3.93% [74]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: 01 contract was at 1635 yuan per ton, down 0.73%; 05 contract was at 1664 yuan per ton, down 1.25%; 09 contract was at 1646 yuan per ton, down 1.26% [77]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 contract - 05 contract was - 29 yuan per ton, up 23.68%; UR - MA main contract was - 655 yuan per ton, down 3.15% [78]. - **Main Positions**: Long top 20 was 176769 lots, up 6.68%; short top 20 was 197913 lots, up 8.10%; long - short ratio was 0.89, down 1.32% [79]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) were at 900 yuan per ton, down 5.26%; synthetic ammonia (Shandong) was at 2239 yuan per ton, down 0.18% [80]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Shandong (small particles) was at 1740 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; FOB China: small particles were at $360 per ton, unchanged [81]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 20.68 million tons, up 1.00%; domestic urea weekly output was 141.32 million tons, down 1.82%; domestic urea factory inventory (weekly) was 117.71 million tons, up 13.69% [82]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.59%; WTI was at $68.79 per barrel, up 1.10%; Brent M1 - M3 was $1.69 per barrel, up 3.05% [86]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was 215.90 cents per gallon, up 0.75%; NYM ULSD was 220.77 cents per gallon, up 0.87%; ICE Gasoil was $645 per ton, up 1.45% [86]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread was $21.89 per barrel, down 0.34%; European diesel crack spread was $20.55 per barrel, down 1.32% [86].