Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [2][11][12]. - Policy support for consumption is emphasized, and the implementation needs to be monitored. Terminal will have a final round of restocking at the end of September, after which the medium - term unilateral trend may remain weak [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: Due to stronger upstream prices, Asian paraxylene increased by $1.50/ton to $835.67/ton CFR Unv1/China and $814.67/ton FOB Korea, while downstream fundamentals are still weak. PX - naphtha spread closed at $226.80/ton on September 17, lower than the previous day. Some refineries in Northeast Asia may reduce aromatic hydrocarbon production. New Fengming Group will postpone the commissioning of its 3 million - ton/year No. 4 PTA production line until PTA margins improve [6][7]. - **PTA**: The current domestic PTA profit margin in China is negative, hovering around 120 - 130 yuan/ton, far below the break - even level. Hengli Petrochemical plans to shut down a 2.2 million - ton/year PTA unit in Dalian on October 11. Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton PTA unit plans to be overhauled in November, and the start - up plan of a new 3 million - ton PTA unit in East China is temporarily cancelled [6][7][8]. - **MEG**: On September 17, the daily average price of MEG spot was 4373 yuan/ton, and the daily average price of futures for late October was 4365 yuan/ton. The average price of spot in Ningbo market was 4398 yuan/ton, and the average price of non - coal - based spot in South China market was 4410 yuan/ton [9]. - **Polyester**: On September 17, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of about 4 - 5%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 54% [9][10]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short term, it will rebound following oil prices. Hold the 11 - 01 long - short spread and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Take profit on PXN compression positions below $220. Track the impact of Zhejiang Petrochemical's device maintenance and Sheng Hong's reformer shutdown on the PX segment. Pay attention to the possible restart of the 4.5 million - ton PTA device of Fuhai Chuang, the October maintenance of Hengli Dalian, and the November maintenance of New Fengming [11]. - **PTA**: In the short term, it will rebound following oil prices. Hold the 11 - 01 long - short spread and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Short the 01/05 contract PTA processing fee on rallies. Future attention should be paid to the possible restart of the 4.5 million - ton PTA device of Fuhai Chuang, the October maintenance of Hengli Dalian, and the November maintenance of New Fengming. The polyester load peak has passed, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - **MEG**: The market is concerned about the impact of anti - involution policies, and coal prices have rebounded, leading to a short - term recovery in ethylene glycol valuation. Implement a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the 01 contract will face a loose supply situation. The polyester start - up rate reached 91.6% (+0.3%), but the start - up peak has passed, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict is intensifying, increasing the potential supply risk of LPG. The supply of propylene plants is fluctuating, leading to higher spot transactions [1]. Detailed Summaries by Sections Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,462 with a daily increase of 1.34% and a night - session price of 4,444 with a decrease of 0.40%. PG2511 closed at 4,414 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a night - session price of 4,402 with a decrease of 0.27%. PL2601 closed at 6,408 with a daily increase of 0.09% and a night - session price of 6,418 with an increase of 0.16%. PL2602 closed at 6,453 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a night - session price of 6,451 with a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - **LPG Position and Trading Volume**: For PG2510, the trading volume was 92,077, an increase of 31,859 from the previous day, and the position was 69,115, an increase of 3,817. For PG2511, the trading volume was 32,932, an increase of 10,261, and the position was 45,311, an increase of 3,465. For PL2601, the trading volume was 2,801, an increase of 215, and the position was 10,329, an increase of 331. For PL2602, the trading volume was 18, a decrease of 8, and the position was 887, an increase of 1 [1]. - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was not given, while the previous day's spread was 117. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 88, compared with 217 the previous day. The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were 267, 192, and 67 respectively, compared with 223, 173, and 23 the previous day [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.1%, slightly up from 73.0% the previous week. The MTBE operating rate was 62.2%, down from 63.5%. The alkylation operating rate was 44.5%, down from 46.8% [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]. Market Information - **CP Paper Goods**: On September 10, 2025, the October CP paper goods for propane were at 550 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and for butane were at 523 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton. The November CP paper goods for propane were at 559 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton [6]. - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (15 units since May 12, 2023, end date pending), and many others with various start and end times [7]. - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG plants have maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (Shandong, full - plant maintenance since May 14, 2024, end date pending), and others with different durations and production losses [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the PX price rose and then retraced. The absolute price on Friday was down 0.9% week - on - week to $849/ton CFR, but the weekly average price still increased slightly by 1.4% to $855/ton CFR. The PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on more unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and its social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production facilities. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually recovering [2]. - The PTA spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis is weakening, which is negative for market sentiment. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost the price. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The terminal demand is still weakly recovering, but the downstream's bullish expectation has increased. The industrial chain profit is shifting towards the raw material segment, and PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5880 - 6030 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The bottle - chip supply side has a stable - to - falling price offer, and the downstream is cautious. The overall production reduction of the supply side has not changed significantly, and the market spot supply is abundant [2]. - Currently, the pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.01/barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.12/barrel, down 0.73%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.38/ton, up 0.59%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $691.50/ton, up 0.29%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00/ton, up 0.04% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 4774 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4722 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4718 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4776 yuan/ton, down 1.34%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4740 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $634.00/ton, down 0.47% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the settlement price was 6844 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6702 yuan/ton, down 2.53%; the settlement price was 6866 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The domestic PX spot price was 6738 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The PXN spread was $251.63/ton, down 1.24%; the PX - MX spread was $157.50/ton, down 1.05% [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the settlement price was 5954 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5836 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the settlement price was 5832 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5960 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 29, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6540 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On August 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, up 2.21 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 70.76%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 1.12 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.09%, up 1.16 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 41.62%, down 1.77 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45.86%, up 5.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 77.76%, up 35.24 percentage points [1]. Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with an intraday trading volume of 602,600 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with an intraday trading volume of 270,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with an intraday trading volume of 60,500 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA market: The PTA market is bearish due to weak crude oil prices and news of possible production cuts in downstream polyester bottle chips. Domestic PTA production has slightly decreased due to concentrated breakdowns and maintenance of PTA plants. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened, and the weak benzene price has restricted the further increase of PX production. The spread between PX and MX has recovered, and the downstream polyester load has remained at around 88%. The polyester price has shown a positive trend, especially the inventory of filament has been well reduced, and the production and sales have been continuously optimistic with obvious profit repair. [2] - MEG market: There are rumors that China is planning a major reform of its petrochemical and refining industries, aiming to gradually eliminate small - scale and outdated facilities and shift investment to advanced materials. South Korean naphtha cracking units are planning to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has recovered, and the continuous postponement of overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, may have a significant impact on the market outlook. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased, the polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil Relationship**: INE crude oil price increased from 479.7 yuan/barrel on August 27, 2025, to 481.7 yuan/barrel on August 28, 2025. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1338.0 yuan/ton to 1291.4 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3838 to 1.3689. [2] - **PX Data**: CFR China PX price decreased from 854 to 849, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 259. [2] - **PTA Data**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 4824 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price decreased from 4835 yuan/ton to 4775 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 220.5 yuan/ton to 215.2 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 239.5 yuan/ton to 237.2 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 30940 to 29938. [2] - **MEG Data**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4481 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (93.21) yuan/ton to (95.40) yuan/ton, and the MEG inner - market price decreased from 4553 yuan/ton to 4527 yuan/ton. [2] - **Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: PX start - up rate remained at 80.38%, PTA start - up rate decreased from 72.16% to 70.76%, MEG start - up rate remained at 60.27%, and polyester load decreased from 86.11% to 86.03%. [2] - **Polyester Product Data**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6882 to 6860, and its cash flow increased from (24) to 11. FDY150D/96F price remained at 7140, and its cash flow increased from (269) to (209). DTY150D/48F price remained at 8040, and its cash flow increased from (69) to (9). The filament production and sales rate increased from 40% to 43%. [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6655, and its cash flow increased from 121 to 156. The staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 39% to 40%. [2] - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price decreased from 5880 to 5860, and its cash flow increased from (129) to (89). The chip production and sales rate decreased from 67% to 42%. [2] Device Maintenance A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in South China has started maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of about one month. [2] Trading Suggestions - PTA: Due to significant fluctuations in the recent polyester futures price, investors are advised to participate with caution and pay attention to the impact of subsequent plant progress on the market. [2] - MEG: The price recovery of ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors such as industry reform rumors and overseas plant maintenance postponement, and attention should be paid to the impact of these factors on the market. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market declined due to the failure of crude oil to recover Tuesday's losses, the negation of PX device maintenance rumors, and sufficient spot supply [2]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) market showed narrow - range fluctuations in futures prices and slightly stronger basis negotiations [2]. - The polyester market showed positive price performance, especially in terms of good inventory reduction in filament, with continuous optimistic sales and significant profit repair [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude dropped from 496.1 yuan/barrel on August 26th to 479.7 yuan/barrel on August 27th, a decrease of 16.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1264.8 yuan/ton to 1338.0 yuan/ton; PTA/SC rose from 1.3508 to 1.3838. The PTA main contract price fell from 4870 yuan/ton to 4824 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4870 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX decreased from 864 to 854, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed from 272 to 254 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract price decreased from 4490 yuan/ton to 4481 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha was (100.00) yuan/ton on August 26th and (100.19) yuan/ton on August 27th [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Operation - **Operating Rates**: PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester load operating rates remained unchanged at 80.38%, 72.16%, 60.27%, and 86.11% respectively [2]. 3.3 Product Performance - **Polyester Filament**: POY cash flow improved from (54) to (24); FDY cash flow improved from (299) to (269); DTY cash flow improved from (74) to (69). The filament sales rate decreased from 50% to 40% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6680 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased from 91 to 121. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 41% to 39% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased from 5890 yuan/ton to 5880 yuan/ton, and the cash flow improved from (149) to (129). The chip sales rate increased from 54% to 67% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton device is expected to start maintenance around August 23rd, with an expected maintenance time of over one month [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PP market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices hitting a new low in 2025, primarily due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [1] Supply Analysis - The supply side is expected to increase, adding pressure to the market. New production capacities are set to come online, including a 450,000-ton facility in Ningbo and another 400,000-ton facility in Guangxi, which will significantly impact supply [3] - Existing production facilities are showing reduced maintenance efforts, with fewer planned repairs expected in the second half of the year, leading to a more stable operation [3] - Overall, the supply outlook is leaning towards a loose expectation, which may suppress prices [3] Demand Analysis - Domestic demand is anticipated to improve, particularly due to seasonal factors such as holidays and the back-to-school period, which are expected to boost demand for PP in daily goods and packaging [5] - However, external demand remains uncertain, with reduced export volumes due to tariff fluctuations and previous demand being front-loaded in the first half of the year [5][6] - Despite the challenges in external demand, the overall domestic PP demand is expected to see some growth, providing strong support for the market [6] Market Outlook - Looking ahead to September, while supply is expected to increase, there is optimism regarding domestic demand, which may strengthen market fundamentals [7] - Macro factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could also provide a boost to the PP market [7] - However, the overall supply pressure and cautious consumer spending may limit the extent of price increases, leading to a relatively moderate rise in prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices fluctuated upward this week due to cost support. International oil prices showed a slight upward - fluctuating trend, and the domestic PX devices operated stably. The demand side of PTA performed well, and the polyester industry maintained high - level operation. Also, news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea and petrochemical industry policy news boosted the PX price [9]. - PTA prices went up due to cost support and unplanned device shutdowns. The news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea pushed up the PX market, which was beneficial to PTA. A 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China shut down unexpectedly, leading to inventory reduction from August to September. Traders were reluctant to sell, and the spot basis strengthened. Meanwhile, the polyester industry gradually increased its operation rate in anticipation of the peak demand season [9]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines. - Crude oil: Geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and the market will mainly choose to wait and see. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. - PX: A total of 1.6 - million - ton PX devices in South China are planned to start operation successively this week. The rigid demand for spot purchases from newly - put - into - operation PTA devices will support PX demand. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China will restart, but it cannot offset the impact of the shutdown of a 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China. In addition, the low processing fees of PTA continue, and there may be other unplanned device overhauls. - Polyester: There is no clear plan for polyester device overhauls next week. As the traditional peak demand season approaches, manufacturers' tolerance for inventory increases, and the market supply pressure of polyester factories will be low in the future. - Weaving: Demand is marginally improving, and there are expectations for the peak season. - Overall: PX will fluctuate strongly in the range of 6,850 - 7,050 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate strongly in the range of 4,750 - 4,950 yuan/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Main Sections of the Report 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX Futures - The news of naphtha production cuts in South Korea boosted the PX futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PX main contract rose from 6,688 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 278 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.16%. The settlement price rose from 6,682 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.25%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 171 yuan/ton; the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,689.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.44% [15][17][19]. 3.1.2 PTA Futures - The unplanned device overhauls boosted the PTA futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PTA main contract rose from 4,716 yuan/ton to 4,868 yuan/ton, an increase of 152 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.20%. The settlement price rose from 4,708 yuan/ton to 4,864 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.34%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.55%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,744.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.35% [21][23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Device - Domestic PX device operation: Devices of many enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical are operating at different loads. Some devices have experienced load changes, shutdowns, and restarts. - Asian other PX device operation: Devices of enterprises in many countries and regions such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea have different operation statuses, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and load changes. - The domestic PX device operating rate has recovered. From August 18th to August 22nd, it was 85.22%, compared with 84.97% from August 11th to August 15th [31][33][35]. 3.2.2 PTA Device - Multiple PTA devices are under maintenance, including those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Fuhai Chuang. The planned maintenance period ranges from several months to more than a month. - Unplanned device overhauls have led to a slight price increase, and the weekly operating rate has decreased by 1.21% [38][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude oil: Affected by the Russia - Ukraine conflict, international oil prices fluctuated this week. On August 22nd, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 63.66 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.86 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67.22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.37 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th. - Naphtha: The average weekly CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 578.45 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 49.78 US dollars/ton. The supply in Asia has generally shrunk, and demand has been supported, leading to an increase in prices. - PX spot: The average weekly CFR price of PX in the Chinese main port was 843.36 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.55% compared with the previous period; the average weekly FOB price in South Korea was 819 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.61% compared with the previous period. The trading volume increased by 65,000 tons compared with the previous period [46][54][57]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX processing margin: The weekly average value of PXN was 265.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of 2.13%. The PX - MX continued to rise, with a weekly average value of 135.50 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: From August 18th to August 22nd, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 202.93 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the previous week's average of 206.76 yuan/ton. It has not returned to the industry's average break - even point. - Inventory: As of August 22nd, the PTA social inventory was 4.468 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons compared with the previous week, with a change rate of - 0.58%. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories have increased. As of August 21st, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.71 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days [60][64][69]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The prices of some polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from August 18th to August 22nd was estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 87.17%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.45%. - Weaving: The downstream has replenished inventory due to price expectations. The inventory of filament yarn has continued to transfer downward. As of August 21st, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 13.80 days, 22.70 days, and 27.80 days respectively. The domestic weaving market has gradually started, but the export orders are still relatively dull. The profit of grey fabric production has been compressed, but it is expected to improve in the future [76][82][90].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Urea**: The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies, which has been realized. China may resume urea exports to India, opening up an incremental market window. The policy window requires concentrated exports by the end of September, which coincides with the domestic autumn storage period, creating a demand resonance. The overall market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, domestic supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices gradually restart, and the absolute price rebound space is limited. PTA's short - term basis is supported, but the upward space is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced with minor fluctuations in August. Short - fiber supply and demand both increase slightly, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost end, and the processing fee space depends on demand [4]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year due to high imports in August. The demand is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak and MTO profits recovering. The 09 contract is facing significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal peak season and gas - limit expectations [11]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: For caustic soda, the market sentiment is weakening, and the supply is expected to increase. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure remains high due to new capacity release and weak demand [20]. - **Polyolefin**: In the static view, the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being destocked, and the basis is weak. Strategically, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is expected to improve in the third quarter, and short - term prices are supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. For styrene, the supply is high, but there are maintenance expectations as profits are compressed, and the downstream load is rising [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations. In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to expand the spread between October - November/December contracts [35]. Summaries by Catalog Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, the 01 contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton, up 3.59% from the previous day; the 05 contract closed at 1839 yuan/ton; the 09 contract closed at 1783 yuan/ton. The main methanol contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [1]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, up 38.89%; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 56 yuan/ton, down 5.08% [1]. - **Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short positions of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces and动力煤坑口 remained unchanged, while the price of动力煤港口 decreased by 0.47% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.60%, while the prices of compound fertilizers remained stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily domestic urea production was 19.12 million tons, down 0.78%; the weekly production was 132.85 million tons, up 1.51% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil (September) was at $62.35/barrel, down 1.7% [4]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was at $835/ton, up 0.2%. The PX basis (11) decreased by 44.1% [4]. - **PTA - Related**: The PTA East China spot price was 4690 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The PTA basis (01) increased by 42.1% [4]. - **MEG - Related**: The MEG East China spot price was 4458 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The MEG basis (09) decreased by 30.6% [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products showed different changes, and the cash - flows and processing fees also varied [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory was 54.1 million tons, and the polyester industry chain's various开工 rates showed different trends [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, the MA2601 contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The太仓基差 was - 5 yuan/ton, down 171.43% [8]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 million tons, up 0.64%; the port inventory was 102.2 million tons, up 10.41% [10]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 76.92%, up 0.68% [11]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: The price of Shandong 32% caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East China PVC decreased [14]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.3%, down 2.0%; the PVC总开工率 was 78.8%, up 1.4% [17]. - **Profits**: The外采电石法PVC利润 was - 562 yuan/ton, down 3.7%; the西北一体化利润 was 278.8 yuan/ton, down 5.1% [17]. - **Demand**: The开工 rates of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased slightly, while PVC's downstream product开工 rates showed different trends [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly [20]. Polyolefin - **Prices**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the PP2601 contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [23]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 million tons, down 13.76%; PP贸易商库存 was 18.0 million tons, down 4.06% [23]. - **开工率**: The PE装置开工率 was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the PP装置开工率 was 76.6%, down 1.1% [23]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; CFR China pure benzene was at $747/ton, unchanged [29]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices**: The East China spot price of styrene was 7280 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [29]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.40 million tons, down 1.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 16.15 million tons, up 8.5% [31]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene开工率 was 75.7%, down 0.4%; the styrene开工率 was 78.2%, up 0.6% [32]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent crude oil was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil was at $62.60/barrel, up 0.4% [35]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was at $0.88, down 14%; WTI M1 - M3 was at $0.92, up 4.5% [35]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil showed different changes, and the cracking spreads also varied [35].