恐慌指数VIX跳涨超5%。 *三大股指结束五连阳，标普500指数跌逾0.5%； *中长期美债收益率上升，10年期美债逼近4.10%； *沃尔玛创历史新高。 受美国国债收益率上升以及疲弱经济数据影响，美股主要股指周一下挫终结五连阳。截至收盘，道指跌 427.09点，跌幅0.90%，报47289.33点，纳指跌0.38%，报23275.92点，标普500指数跌0.53%，报6812.63 点。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）上涨5.5%，至17.23。 受日本央行行长植田和男相关言论影响，日本和欧洲国债价格走弱股市下挫，进而带动美国国债收益率 上升，与利率预期关联密切的2年期美债涨5.0个基点至3.540%，基准10年期美债涨7.7个基点至 4.095%。植田和男此前暗示，当前条件已逐渐适合日本央行可能实施的加息。 【热门股表现】 明星科技股涨跌互现，谷歌跌1.5%，Meta、微软跌1.1%，甲骨文跌0.5%，特斯拉平盘，亚马逊涨 0.3%，苹果涨1.5%。 人工智能芯片巨头英伟达宣布向半导体设计软件供应商新思科技（Synopsys）投资20亿美元，受此消息 推动，新思科技股价上涨4.9%，英伟达涨1.6%。 ...

Economic Outlook - The European Union forecasts that the German economy will grow by 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027, indicating potential signs of recovery after over five years of stagnation [1] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported that the GDP remained stable in the third quarter, avoiding recession, with industrial orders, output, and exports showing signs of recovery [1][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that reforms to the debt brake mechanism by the German government are expected to support gradual economic recovery [1] Investment and Infrastructure - The German government has established a special fund totaling €500 billion for infrastructure projects, which is classified as additional debt and does not count against the current debt ceiling [2][5] - A significant portion of this fund is allocated for defense, with local arms manufacturers hiring workers from the automotive sector to support expansion plans [5] - Analysts believe that the efficiency of implementing these infrastructure projects is crucial, as delays could lead to inflationary pressures [5][10] Economic Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, the IMF warned that without further bold reforms at both domestic and EU levels, Germany faces serious mid-term growth challenges [2][8] - The labor force in Germany is expected to decline more sharply than in any other G7 country over the next five years, posing a significant challenge to economic growth [8] - Concerns have been raised about the potential misuse of new borrowing, with warnings that funds could be diverted to welfare spending rather than infrastructure [9][10] Long-term Growth Potential - The IMF anticipates that higher government spending starting in 2026 will provide a significant boost to economic growth, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to around 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 [6][7] - The construction sector, which has faced a deep recession, is seen as critical for Germany's economic recovery, with expectations of a rebound due to cyclical rather than structural issues [5][6] - The ongoing demand for high-end manufacturing within the EU is expected to support Germany's economy, despite challenges faced by the automotive industry [6]

26日国际金价上涨 重回每盎司4200美元关口上方 市场对美联储12月降息预期升温的同时，下一任美联储主席候选人当中，"鸽派"候选人领跑的消息，让投资者看好美联储明年继续推进货币宽松政策的前 景，美债收益率与美元指数周三齐跌，国际金价当天显著上涨，并重回每盎司4200美元关口上方。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司 4202.3美元，涨幅为1.50%。 26日国际油价上涨 原油期货方面，美国能源信息局周三公布的数据显示，美国每日原油进口量大增105万桶，升至两个多月来新高，分析人士称新的数据暗示美国传统节假日 到来前石油消费需求正在回暖。受此影响，国际油价周三上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶58.65美元，涨幅为 1.21%；明年1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶63.13美元，涨幅为1.04%。 综合｜ 央视财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is considering gradually tightening its monetary easing policy if economic activity and prices continue to develop as per its current outlook [1] Group 1: Economic Activity and Inflation - As per Akira Noguchi, a member of the Bank of Japan, sustainable and stable inflation requires steady demand expansion and continuous nominal wage growth, particularly in small businesses and regional economies [1] - The persistence of wage growth momentum will determine whether potential inflation can steadily progress towards the 2% target [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Supply Chain Issues - Although the overall CPI growth rate is expected to slow down, there is a warning about potential localized price increases, similar to the recent rise in rice and other food prices, due to supply-demand tensions prompting companies to pass on delayed cost increases [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy has been limited so far [1]

30年国债ETF紧密跟踪中债-30年期国债指数(总值)财富指数，中债-30年期国债指数隶属于中债总指数 族系，该指数成分券由在境内公开发行上市流通的发行期限为30年且待偿期25-30年（包含25年和30 年）的记账式国债组成（不包含特别国债），可作为投资该类债券的业绩比较基准和标的指数。 风险提示：中债-30年期国债财富(总值)指数(代码:CBA21801)来源于中债金融估值中心有限公司("中 债")。本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用抽样复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、标的指数变更、指数编制机构停止服务、 成份券停牌或违约等潜在风险。本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投 资、兑付责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构 成对本基金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招 ...

Group 1 - The market's expectation for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased to a 50% probability, down from approximately 70% two weeks ago, despite significant hedging activity by investors [2] - Traders are heavily investing in December options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) to profit from a potential 25 basis point rate cut [2] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have raised doubts about the necessity of another rate cut this year, although upcoming employment and inflation data may provide justification for further monetary easing [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of approximately 113.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with significant growth in its innovative business segment [7] - The "smart electric vehicles and AI-related innovative business" segment achieved a record revenue of 29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 199.2% [7] - The adjusted net profit reached approximately 11.31 billion yuan, marking an 80.9% year-on-year increase, while profit attributable to shareholders rose by 129.26% to about 12.27 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repo operation of 310.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan for the day [8]

Group 1 - The market is actively taking hedging measures against the risk of the Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs next month, despite a 50% probability of a rate cut [2] - Traders are heavily investing in December options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) to profit from a potential 25 basis point rate cut [2] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have raised doubts about the necessity of another rate cut this year, although upcoming employment and inflation data may provide justification for further monetary easing [2] Group 2 - New World Development announced the issuance of new perpetual securities totaling approximately $1.072 billion, contingent on the completion of exchange offers [4] - The debt financing tool status of Jinhui Group has been updated to "pre-evaluation" according to the China Interbank Market Dealers Association [4] - The voting period for the restructuring plan of 38 companies, including Suning Electric Group, has been postponed to December 14 [4] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of approximately 113.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with significant growth in its smart electric vehicle and AI business segment [11] - The operating profit for Xiaomi reached 15.11 billion yuan, up 150.1% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was approximately 11.31 billion yuan, marking an 80.9% increase [11] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan for the day [13]

Core Points - The EU has decided to postpone the implementation of the new carbon emissions trading system "ETS2," which may impact inflation levels in the coming years and reopen the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the Eurozone [1][2] - ETS2 was originally set to start in 2027, imposing additional costs on high carbon-emitting sectors such as transportation and building heating, potentially leading to higher fuel and energy prices for the public [1] - The postponement is aimed at alleviating the economic impact of the green transition, with some economists suggesting that if ETS2 is delayed, inflation could fall below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% by 2027 [1][2] Economic Implications - Danish bank economist Rune Johansen indicated that if ETS2 is not implemented as scheduled in 2027, the decline in inflation could be more pronounced, providing a rationale for the ECB to support further rate cuts [1] - Analysts estimate that ETS2 alone could increase the EU's inflation rate by at least 0.2 percentage points in 2027; thus, if the plan is difficult to implement, price increases will be lower [1] Political Context - Despite the EU's commitment to achieving its 2040 emissions reduction targets, multiple governments are prioritizing economic growth and defense capabilities, fearing that rising energy costs may lead to voter dissatisfaction [2] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has attempted to reassure the market that ETS2 may still be implemented in 2027 but in a gradual manner; however, the European Council and Parliament have formally proposed a delay [2] - Analysts generally believe that merely postponing ETS2 will not automatically trigger a shift in ECB policy unless other macroeconomic indicators deteriorate simultaneously [2]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管市场对美联储再次降息的预期已降至五五开，投资者仍在积极采取对冲措施， 以防范美联储于下月下调借贷成本的风险。 交易员正大举涌入与担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩的12月期权合约，以期从潜在的25基点降息中获 利。该利率与联邦基金利率走势高度同步。这些押注进行之际，恰逢美国史上最长政府停摆结束后，大 量经济数据开始陆续发布。 美联储在9月和10月连续降息后，部分官员近期对今年再次降息的必要性表达了疑虑。然而，即将公布 的就业和通胀数据或将为实施进一步货币宽松政策提供依据。 未平仓合约量持续攀升，这些期权将在12月10日美联储利率决议后的两天到期，使其成为对冲政策决策 风险的理想工具。近期最活跃的12月SOFR期权是96.50行权价合约，目前未平仓合约量约为86.3万手。 该水平相当于3.5%的收益率，即较当前有效联邦基金利率低38个基点。 当前利率互换市场的定价显示，美联储在下次会议降息的概率约为50%，这与市场涌现的大量对冲头寸 形成鲜明对比。这一概率较两周前市场反映的约70%的降息几率已显著下降。近期定价的转变也影响了 明年预期，目前市场对1月28日议息会议的定价显示，降息幅度已不足 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of five-year fixed-term deposits by banks, starting with the Inner Mongolia Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank, indicates a potential industry trend rather than an isolated case, as many private and internet banks are following suit due to declining interest rates and the phenomenon of interest rate inversion [2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Cancellation - Banks are discontinuing five-year fixed-term deposits primarily to address the narrowing net interest margin, as loan rates are decreasing faster than deposit rates, leading to higher costs for long-term deposits [3][4]. - The Tuyuqi Mengyin Village Bank has also lowered rates for other term deposits, with the one-year rate dropping to 1.45% and the two-year rate to 1.55% [4]. Group 2: Market Response and Trends - The average annualized yield for bank wealth management products has risen to approximately 2.12%, significantly higher than the current one-year fixed deposit rate of 0.95%, prompting a shift in investor preference towards these products [7]. - The number of individuals holding bank wealth management products has increased by 12.70% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a growing trend towards these alternatives [6][7]. Group 3: Future Directions for Banks - The shift away from long-term fixed deposits towards wealth management services reflects a broader transformation in the banking industry, where competition will increasingly focus on providing diversified asset allocation solutions [8]. - Banks that can effectively meet customer needs with stable and competitive yield products are expected to gain an advantage in the evolving market landscape [8].