周三亚洲交易时段，美元/加元汇率小幅攀升至1.3855附近，整体波动有限，市场交投谨慎。 投资者正等待北美时段加拿大央行与美联储的政策声明，预计在此之前汇价将维持窄幅整理，市场对两 大央行政策路径可能出现的分化保持高度敏感。 美元/加元近期走势已反映市场对货币政策分化的预期。若美联储如期降息并释放鸽派信号，而加拿大 央行保持中性立场，加元可能获得短期支撑。 反之，若美联储对经济展望优于预期，或点阵图显示未来降息可能放缓，美元有望重新走强。此外，原 油价格波动、全球风险情绪及贸易协议进展也将持续影响加元。 在两大央行的政策声明出炉前，市场整体处于观望状态。投资者正密切关注即将发布的声明与经济预 测，试图从中捕捉有关利率走向、通胀形势以及经济前景的有效信号。这些信息预计将为美元/加元下 一阶段的走势定下基调。此次会议结果，很可能成为引发年末汇市波动的关键因素。 美元指数目前在99.25附近徘徊，前一交易日已录得上涨。支撑美元上行的主要因素是周二公布的美国 10月职位空缺数据，该数据小幅上升至767万，高于市场预期的720万。这一结果增强了市场对美国劳动 力市场复苏的信心，为美元提供了支撑。 根据CMEFedWat ...

短期内，美元兑加元的走势将由美联储与加拿大央行的议息会议结果所主导，会议前后市场的波动幅度 预计将显著加大。多家机构分析认为，若美联储此次宽松政策的力度超出预期，而加拿大央行维持现有 政策基调不变，可能会对美元兑加元的上行势头形成短期抑制；反之，若美联储宽松力度不及预期，汇 价则有可能突破上方阻力位。未来需重点关注两大央行决议的措辞细节、国际原油价格的走势变化以及 加拿大后续公布的经济数据表现。 12月10日，美元兑加元汇率录得1.3853，呈现小幅走高态势。当日汇率以1.3852开盘，盘中最高触及 1.3854，最低下探至1.3841，较前一交易日收盘价微升0.0001，涨幅为0.0506%。加拿大央行的利率决策 是影响加元表现的核心变量，市场主流观点预测，该行将于本周三维持2.25%的政策利率不变，此前央 行官员已明确表示，当前利率水平"基本处于合理区间"。 美联储的政策前景对当前汇价构成支撑。据市场定价显示，投资者认为美联储在12月会议中下调利率25 个基点的概率已升至88%，同时市场还预期美联储将推出每月450亿美元的国库券购买计划。美加两国 货币政策的差异，是近期驱动美元兑加元波动的关键因素。目前市 ...

【导读】 澳洲央行如期维持利率不变 市场预期宽松周期或已结束 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，超级央行周，澳洲央行"第一枪"来了，刚刚宣布不降息。 这也使得2026年的前景颇具挑战性。利率期货市场目前已经消化了最早在明年5月加息一次、概率约"五五开 " 的预期，而大多数经济学家 则认为本轮宽松周期已经结束，此前他们普遍预计利率至少还会再降一次至3.35%。 高盛、瑞银以及Barrenjoey的分析师已转向与市场相似的判断，认为澳洲央行下一步更有可能是加息而非继续降息。 12月9日， 澳大利亚 央行连续第三次按兵不动， 未能给房贷持有人提前送上 " 圣诞礼物"，在今年最后一次会议上维持利率不变， 继续 强调"看数据决策"。 澳大利亚央行在本次会议上如市场普遍预期的那样，连续第三次按兵不动，将关键政策利率维持在3.6%。央行同时重申，未来政策走向将 继续取决于后续公布的经济数据。 央行称，当前物价压力再度抬头，劳动力市场依然偏紧。声明称，九名董事一致赞成这一决定。 利率决策委员会在声明中表示："最新数据表明，通胀风险已偏向上行，但仍需要更长时间来评估通胀压力的持续性。董事会将在决策中密 切关注数据表现以及对前景和风 ...

美联储降息动向及人事调整主导美元走势，进而影响美瑞汇率。市场高度关注其12月9-10日议息会议， 当前定价本次降息25个基点概率近85%，美元指数承压令美瑞汇率存下行压力。此外，特朗普拟明年初 公布美联储主席人选，热门候选人哈塞特被预期倾向更大幅度降息，进一步压制美元。短期需警惕美国 核心通胀走强或美联储鹰派言论引发的美元反弹风险。 多重外围因素加剧美瑞汇率波动。瑞士央行正将美元储备向欧元多元化配置，截至2025年6月，美元、 欧元占比分别为39%、37%，长期或削弱美元需求。全球去美元化趋势持续，新西兰超级年金基金等机 构转投欧洲股市，加剧美元弱势预期。此外，全球风险情绪、地缘冲突将影响美元避险吸引力，而瑞郎 作为避险货币，需求随风险偏好反向调整。 机构对美瑞汇率走势分歧显著，核心聚焦政策催化。技术面显示，汇价在0.8000-0.8050区间震荡，上方 0.8101、0.8123为阻力位，下方0.7872、0.7877为支撑位；MACD短期偏空但动能不足，RSI处于中性， 方向性突破待政策或数据催化。短期关注本周瑞央行及美联储议息会议，其政策指引将决定汇率下一阶 段走向。长期来看，美联储政策不确定性、瑞央行 ...

在亚洲新兴市场方面，印度经济表现亮眼。报告数据显示，受益于制造业活动激增9.1%及公共投资增 加，印度2026财年第二季度（2025年7月至9月）实际GDP同比增长8.2%，超出市场预期。 然而，报告警告称潜在风险正在积聚。首先是劳动力市场，最新的ADP就业报告显示11月美国就业人数 意外减少3.2万人，远不及市场预期的增加1万人，突显了就业市场的恶化迹象。其次是通胀风险，报告 认为，受关税传导效应及移民政策收紧推高服务业成本等因素影响，2026年美国通胀率可能攀升至3% 以上。目前，期货市场定价显示，市场仍预期美联储将在12月进行一次"保险式"降息。 与美联储的降息预期不同，欧洲央行和日本央行的政策走向呈现出明显的分化态势。报告指出，市场日 益确信欧洲央行（ECB）的宽松周期已接近尾声。欧元区11月CPI通胀率回升至2.2%，且失业率处于历 史低位，欧洲央行管委会强调，相比冒进宽松，目前暂停降息更为稳妥。而在日本，日本央行（BOJ） 行长植田和男暗示12月会议可能采取行动，其关注点更多在于弱势日元对通胀的推动作用。市场对此反 应迅速，目前预计日本央行加息的概率已升至80%以上。 新华财经新加坡12月5日电（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound that is currently stagnating, influenced by rising US Treasury yields and interventions from Japanese authorities, particularly the hawkish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese yen was the weakest currency on Tuesday, facing selling pressure as market sentiment improved and the impact of former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's unexpected hawkish comments began to fade [1]. - The market's expectations for the BOJ's tightening policy provide potential support for the yen, as Ueda's hawkish remarks indicate a consideration of the "pros and cons" of interest rate hikes, which negatively affected market risk appetite [1]. - A recent auction of Japanese government bonds exceeded expectations, alleviating some market concerns, although overall risk appetite remains fragile [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - US economic data has reinforced expectations for policy easing, with the November ISM Manufacturing PMI indicating that industry activity has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, alongside deteriorating new orders and employment metrics, and rising inflation levels [1]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is expected to continue, limiting the upside potential for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2].

来源：智昇财论 #黄金原油收跌# 黄金方面：货币宽松开启以来，美联储已经降息五次，累计降息150个基点。在通胀和就业之间，美联 储官员们对12月降息的分歧仍然存在，这种分歧不仅影响下周能否再次降息，也关系到未来的政策走 向。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也承认了，官员们的争论核心，是经济需要更多刺激来支撑就业市场，而通 胀仍然高于目标以及关税可能进一步推高物价，导致经济可能出现滞胀。在此背景下，近期的黄金趋势 性较弱，价格出现宽幅震荡的态势。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，短期回调改变了市场上行结构，价格可能出现宽幅震荡。 技术面：昨日收阴线，市场在次级低点4250美元附近徘徊，价格在布林线上轨附近受到压制。1小时级 别，价格在60/120日均线之间运行，市场处于转势阶段。今日下方关注4170美元的支撑，上方关注4230 美元的压力。 原油方面：12月2日，俄罗斯总统普京与美国特使举行了近5小时的会议，俄方表示会议富有成效。市场 对俄乌和谈的预期又有上升，供应中断担忧有所减弱，油价受此影响出现下跌。 技术面：日线收下影线较长的小阴线。日线级别，年度低位存在支撑，市场仍在下降通道内部运行。1 小时级别，近期市场走势， ...

周三（11月26）美元兑日元汇率在政策博弈中呈现高位震荡格局，11月20日亚洲交易时段盘中一度触及 157.48的10个月新高，截至25日受美联储鸽派信号影响回落至156.5附近，自10月初以来累计涨幅仍达 4.5%，日元名义有效汇率已接近2024年7月日本政府干预时的低位。这一波动背后，是美日货币政策分 化、经济基本面差异及财政政策扰动的多重作用。 日本央行的政策困境则持续压制日元。尽管日本10月核心CPI同比上涨3.0%，连续50个月高于2%目标， 且三季度核心CPI上修至2.5%，但央行仍维持0.5%政策利率不变。植田和男行长强调需确认"工资—物 价良性循环"，而日本三季度GDP环比下降0.4%，民间住宅投资暴跌9.4%，经济疲软制约加息空间，市 场对12月加息预期概率仅57%。同时，日本政府推出21.3万亿日元经济刺激方案，叠加债务率达GDP的 260%，国债抛售潮推升10年期收益率至1.825%的金融危机后新高，进一步加剧日元贬值压力。 短期来看，美元兑日元大概率维持156—158区间震荡。若美国即将公布的PPI与零售数据疲弱，将强化 降息预期，汇价可能下探155.4支撑位；若数据强劲则有望重新冲击 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar (USD) due to policy divergence, economic fundamentals, and commodity currency characteristics, with current trading around 0.6485 after a retreat from a high of 0.6580, yet still within a rebound range since 2025 [1] Policy Divergence - The core logic driving the AUD/USD exchange rate is the policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate of 5.25%-5.5%, with October's core PCE inflation at 3.5%, leading to a strong support for the USD as market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are pushed back [1] - In contrast, the RBA's cautious policy stance, with current rates slightly above 0.5% and October's CPI at 5.4%, reflects growing concerns over economic growth, resulting in a cooling of rate hike expectations. This divergence has widened the 10-year government bond yield spread to -130 basis points, contributing to capital outflows and suppressing the AUD [1] Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals further amplify exchange rate volatility. The US economy shows resilience with a 2.9% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 and better-than-expected durable goods orders, although manufacturing remains weak, limiting the USD's upside potential [1] - Australia faces challenges with its reliance on resource exports, which account for over 60% of its economy. The November manufacturing PMI declined, and the service sector's expansion could not fully offset industrial weakness, compounded by fluctuating demand from China, its largest trading partner, which further weakens the AUD's fundamental support [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a corrective phase after a rebound, having risen from the 0.6350 range to a high of 0.6580, but recently fell below the 20-day moving average support, entering a consolidation range of 0.6450-0.6520. The 14-day RSI has dropped to 48, indicating a neutral to bearish trend, while the MACD shows a reduction in bullish momentum without a clear reversal signal [3] - Key support levels are focused on the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6480 and the psychological level of 0.6450. A breach could lead to further declines towards the 0.6430-0.6450 support zone. Resistance is concentrated in the 0.6520-0.6540 range, with a breakthrough needed to alleviate the current downward pressure. Long-term, the AUD/USD remains in an upward trend initiated in 2020, with potential for a new upward cycle if it breaks the 14-year resistance trend line established since 2011 [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant differences in macroeconomic structures between China and the United States, emphasizing China's transition from GDP growth to wealth creation, accumulation, and inheritance as crucial for achieving the goal of national prosperity and strength [2][3]. Economic Development Model Transformation - China is shifting from a focus on rapid economic scale expansion to prioritizing quality and efficiency, aiming for sustainable wealth growth and intergenerational wealth transfer [4]. - Coastal regions in China have largely entered a high-income development stage through industrial upgrades and innovation [4]. - China's military modernization and defense capabilities have effectively maintained national sovereignty and territorial integrity, contributing to regional stability [4]. Structural Contradictions and Historical Analysis - The article highlights the stark contrast between the U.S.'s excessive consumption and China's high savings rate, which has historical roots dating back to post-World War II economic conditions [6][7]. - The U.S. transitioned from a trade surplus to a trade deficit due to changes in monetary policy after the dollar was decoupled from gold, leading to a consumption-driven economy [7][8]. Wealth Effect Disparities - Real estate serves as a primary wealth vehicle, with U.S. property values having doubled over the past decade, significantly boosting consumer confidence and investment [9]. - In contrast, China's real estate market has seen a decline, with property values estimated to have dropped by about one-third, equating to a loss of wealth comparable to one GDP [9]. Policy Innovation and Future Directions - The article suggests that China needs to adjust its macroeconomic policies to create ample space for wealth creation, accumulation, and inheritance [14]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying demand sources and leveraging Hong Kong's unique position to foster innovative cooperation models, particularly in the context of the "H-share" listing and potential blockchain integration [14][15].