Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on September 5, 2025, including whether they will be in a state of shock consolidation, weak shock, strong shock, or wide - range shock, and also gives the corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Futures Index: On September 5, 2025, it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation pattern. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4383 and 4441 points, and support levels at 4306 and 4279 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2512 contract is likely to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 108.30 and 108.43 yuan, and support levels at 108.17 and 108.10 yuan [3]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2512 contract is expected to show a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 117.9 and 118.2 yuan, and support levels at 117.2 and 116.8 yuan [3]. - Gold Futures: The AU2510 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 818.8 and 823.2 yuan/gram, and support levels at 811.2 and 806.2 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver Futures: The AG2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 9685 and 9600 yuan/kilogram, and resistance levels at 9851 and 9965 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2510 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 79500 and 79400 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 80000 and 80100 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2510 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 20730 and 20770 yuan/ton, and support levels at 20590 and 20500 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2601 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend and will test the support levels at 2950 and 2919 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2989 and 3008 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc Futures: The ZN2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 22000 and 21960 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 22160 and 22230 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2511 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 53000 and 53700 yuan/ton, and support levels at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2511 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 74800 and 75800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 71300 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3101 and 3080 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3135 and 3150 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3292 and 3275 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3335 and 3355 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 795 and 800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 777 and 771 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 1120 and 1138 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1090 and 1075 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass Futures: The FG601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1125 and 1106 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1152 and 1174 yuan/ton [5]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1255 and 1240 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1290 and 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2510 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 478 and 473 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 488 and 490 yuan/barrel [5]. - Methanol Futures: The MA601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 2409 and 2423 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2378 and 2372 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The M2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 3066 and 3081 yuan/ton, and support levels at 3039 and 3027 yuan/ton [5]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 16170 and 16230 yuan/ton, with support levels at 15880 and 15750 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - International events include the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, the US - Japan trade agreement implementation, and the US government's actions against a Norwegian sovereign wealth fund [7][8][9]. - Domestic policies involve the release of a sports industry development plan, a plan to stabilize the electronic information manufacturing industry, and a support plan for female scientific and technological talents [7][8]. - Central bank operations: The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 5, 2025 [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Precious Metals: On September 4, 2025, international precious - metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce [10]. - Crude Oil: On September 4, 2025, due to OPEC's expected production increase, US crude oil futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.07% to $66.88 per barrel [10]. - Base Metals: On September 4, 2025, London base metals closed lower across the board. For example, LME aluminum futures fell 1.11% to $2590.00 per ton, and LME copper futures fell 0.84% to $9891.50 per ton [11]. - Exchange Rates: On September 4, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402, up 66 basis points, and the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28 [11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Futures Index: On September 4, 2025, major futures index contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 generally showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [11][12][13]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On September 4, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year T2512 contract and the thirty - year TL2512 contract both showed a rebound trend [32][35]. - Gold Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, but the medium - and short - term upward space has further opened up [39]. - Silver Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AG2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the long - term and short - term upward trends are obvious [46]. - Copper Futures: On September 4, 2025, the CU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term upward momentum weakened [51]. - Aluminum Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AL2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [55]. - Alumina Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AO2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [58]. - Zinc Futures: On September 4, 2025, the ZN2510 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [63]. ， the PS2511 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was weak [67]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On September 4, 2025, the LC2511 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and stabilized [69]. - Rebar Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and rebounded slightly [75]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the HC2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [78]. - Iron Ore Futures: On September 4, 2025, the I2601 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound strongly [82]. - Coking Coal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the JM2601 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [87]. - Glass Futures: On September 4, 2025, the FG601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [92]. - Soda Ash Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SA601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was obviously weak [97]. - Crude Oil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SC2510 contract showed a weak - shock downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased significantly [101]. - Methanol Futures: On September 4, 2025, the MA601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [105]. - Soybean Meal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the M2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term rebound momentum weakened [108]. - Natural Rubber Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RU2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [110].

Group 1 - The U.S. has signed a trade agreement with Japan, implementing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods exported to the U.S. [3] - The new tariff framework aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and improve overall trade balance [3] - Japan will increase its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% and commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually [3] Group 2 - Japan will allow U.S. manufactured passenger cars to be sold in its market without additional testing, adhering to U.S. safety certification standards [3] - The agreement includes commitments for Japan to purchase U.S. manufactured commercial aircraft and defense equipment [3] - Key sectors for market access include manufacturing, aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automotive, and industrial products [3] Group 3 - Gold futures are currently trading at approximately 815.10 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.12% [1] - The trading range for gold futures shows a high of 817.76 yuan per gram and a low of 811.36 yuan per gram [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 823 yuan per gram and 860 yuan per gram, while support levels are between 781 yuan per gram and 850 yuan per gram [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has officially implemented a trade agreement with Japan, which includes measures to adjust tariffs and prevent double taxation on previously taxed Japanese imports [1] - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% as part of the trade agreement [1] - The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in July, reaching $78.3 billion, which is a notable increase from the revised $59.1 billion deficit in June and higher than market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that U.S. companies increased imports ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump, contributing to the trade deficit reaching a four-month high [2] - In July, U.S. imports rose to $358.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.9%, while exports saw a modest increase of 0.3% to $280.5 billion [2] - The total trade deficit for goods and services increased by 32.5% in July, amounting to $78.3 billion, with a significant rise in the goods trade deficit [2]

Group 1 - The White House announced the implementation of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods exported to the U.S. [2][4] - Specific sectors such as automotive, aerospace, generic drugs, and natural resources will have differentiated tariff treatments under the new framework [2][4]. - The new tariff framework aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and promote a more balanced overall trade situation [4]. Group 2 - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. agricultural products, including a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases and an annual total of $8 billion in various U.S. agricultural goods [4]. - The Japanese government will facilitate the sale of U.S.-made passenger cars in Japan without additional testing, as long as they meet U.S. safety certification standards [4]. - Japan plans to purchase U.S.-manufactured commercial aircraft and defense equipment, providing significant market access for U.S. manufacturers [4]. Group 3 - The Trump administration is seeking a swift Supreme Court ruling to overturn a previous court decision that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries illegal [5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that delaying the ruling could lead to significant financial chaos, with tariffs collected potentially reaching $750 billion to $1 trillion by mid-2026 [5]. - As of August 24, U.S. companies have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that have been ruled illegal, which may require refunds if the appellate court's decision is upheld [5]. Group 4 - The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in July, reaching $78.3 billion, driven by increased imports ahead of the anticipated new tariffs [6]. - Analysts suggest that businesses imported more goods and materials in anticipation of the new tariffs, contributing to the highest trade deficit in four months [6]. - The expectation of increased tariffs also led to a surge in gold shipments, further boosting overall U.S. imports [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a new U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods entering the U.S. market, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and balancing trade relations between the two countries [4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement - The U.S. will impose a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese imports [4]. - Specific sectors such as automobiles, aerospace products, generics, and natural resources that cannot be sourced domestically will have differentiated tariff treatments [4]. - The new tariff framework is expected to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and promote a more balanced overall trade situation [6]. Group 2: Market Access for U.S. Products in Japan - Japan will provide significant market access opportunities for U.S. manufacturers in key sectors including aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, and automobiles [7]. - Japan aims to increase its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% under the "minimum market access" rice plan, with total annual purchases of U.S. agricultural products reaching $8 billion [7]. - U.S.-made passenger cars that meet U.S. safety standards will be allowed to sell in Japan without additional testing [7]. Group 3: Legal and Economic Context - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries illegal, arguing it undermines the president's ability to conduct foreign policy and protect national security [8]. - As of August 24, U.S. companies have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that may be deemed illegal, with potential refunds causing significant disruption if the ruling is upheld [8]. - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, significantly higher than the adjusted $59.1 billion in June, driven by increased imports ahead of the new tariffs [10].

9月4日，美股三大股指收涨，美国科技七巨头指数走强。博通公司2025财年三季报业绩表现超预期，公 司股价上涨，总市值增至1.44万亿美元。大宗商品方面，国际金价、油价回落。 市场人士分析，隔夜美股走强得益于美国最新ADP就业数据不及预期，从而进一步强化了市场对美联储 9月降息的预期。接下来，市场重点关注即将公布的8月非农就业数据，该数据表现或对上述预期带来影 响。 央视新闻报道，当地时间9月4日，美国白宫发表声明表示，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，正式实施美 日贸易协议。 美股三大股指上涨 在美联储9月降息预期升温提振下，9月4日，美股三大股指收涨，美股道指、纳指、标普500指数分别上 涨0.77%、0.98%、0.83%。 美股大型科技股隔夜表现活跃，美国科技七巨头指数涨1.17%。成分股中，亚马逊涨逾4%，Meta、特斯 拉均涨逾1%；谷歌（Alphabet）-C涨0.68%，盘中创历史新高。 博通发布截至8月3日的2025财年第三季度报告，报告期内，公司实现营业收入159.52亿美元，调整后每 股收益为1.69美元，均较上年同期增长同时高于市场预期。从盘面表现看，博通收涨逾1%，总市值升 至1.44万亿美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, significantly higher than the adjusted $59.1 billion in June and above market expectations [1] - Analysts attribute the increase in the trade deficit to U.S. companies importing goods and materials ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump, leading to a four-month high in the trade deficit [1] - The anticipation of tariffs also resulted in a substantial increase in gold shipments, further contributing to the rise in total imports [1] Import and Export Data - In July, U.S. imports amounted to $358.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.9%, while exports were $280.5 billion, with a slight increase of 0.3% [1] - The goods trade deficit increased by $18.2 billion to $103.9 billion, while the services trade surplus decreased by $1.1 billion to $25.6 billion [1] - The total trade deficit for goods and services rose by 32.5% month-on-month to $78.3 billion [1] Year-to-Date Trade Performance - Year-to-date, the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services has increased by $154.3 billion compared to the same period in 2024, representing a 30.9% increase [1] - Exports have risen by $10.3 billion, a 5.5% increase, while imports have surged by $257.5 billion, marking a 10.9% increase [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, significantly higher than the revised $59.1 billion in June and above market expectations [1] - Analysts attribute the increase in the trade deficit to U.S. companies importing goods and materials ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump, leading to a four-month high in the trade deficit [1] - The anticipation of new tariffs also resulted in a substantial increase in gold shipments, further contributing to the rise in total imports [1] Import and Export Data - In July, U.S. imports amounted to $358.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.9%, while exports were $280.5 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.3% [1] - The goods trade deficit increased by $18.2 billion to $103.9 billion, while the services trade surplus decreased by $1.1 billion to $25.6 billion [1] - The total trade deficit for goods and services rose by 32.5% month-on-month to $78.3 billion [1] Year-to-Date Trade Performance - Year-to-date, the U.S. trade deficit for goods and services has increased by $154.3 billion compared to the same period in 2024, representing a 30.9% rise [1] - Exports have increased by $10.3 billion, a growth of 5.5%, while imports have surged by $257.5 billion, reflecting a 10.9% increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to implement a US-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods imported to the US, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and enhancing trade balance [1] Group 1: Tariff Structure - The new tariff framework will impose a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese imports to the US [1] - Specific sectors such as automobiles, aerospace products, generic drugs, and natural resources that cannot be sourced or produced domestically in the US will have differentiated tariff treatments [1] Group 2: Market Access and Agricultural Procurement - Japan will provide breakthrough market access opportunities for US manufacturers in key sectors including aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automobiles, and industrial products [1] - Under the "minimum market access" rice plan, Japan aims to increase its procurement of US rice by 75% [1] - Japan will also commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of US agricultural products annually, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, and bioethanol [1] Group 3: Automotive and Defense Procurement - Japan will facilitate the sale of US-manufactured passenger vehicles in its market without requiring additional testing, provided they meet US safety certification standards [1] - The Japanese government will also procure US-made commercial aircraft and defense equipment [1]

Employment Data - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, and Education/Healthcare lost -12K jobs [4][5] Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a narrowing wage gap [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, exceeding expectations and marking the highest monthly total since June [7] - Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million, remaining below the critical 2 million mark for 13 consecutive weeks [8] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest quarterly productivity since Q3 2024 [9] - Unit Labor Costs for the quarter were lower than expected at +1.0%, suggesting a favorable economic environment [9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's revised figure of -$59.1 billion [10]