1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The slow rise of the index since mid - December is a pre - emptive pricing driven by funds' forward - looking layout for 2026 investments, with high expectations for the cross - year market. In the short term, the market may be affected by overseas factors such as US geopolitical frictions and re - inflation expectations. If US inflation and the job market remain resilient, the overly optimistic Fed rate - cut expectations may be revised, affecting the domestic technology - growth style. Otherwise, the stock market may continue to rise in a volatile manner [3][11]. - In the medium term, global liquidity is expected to be in a state of resonant easing. The US may use re - inflation to resolve its huge debt, and its monetary policy is likely to be loose. In China, the monetary policy focuses on cross - cycle adjustment, and after the Spring Festival, fiscal policy is expected to be implemented in advance, with pro - cyclical styles having potential for a supplementary rise [12]. - The bond market last week was sluggish, with yields on various - term government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future. The bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the official completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry [4][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the market was volatile, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the CSI 300 fell 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Market highlights were in commercial space, robotics, and AI application sectors, and most industries declined. The average daily trading volume was 2128.3 billion yuan, an increase of 163.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3][11]. - The US's raid on Venezuela may cause short - term increases in gold and crude oil prices and strengthen the US dollar. In the long term, it may form a long - term negative impact on international oil prices. Chinese asphalt and fuel oil products relying on Venezuelan heavy crude oil face risks of unstable raw material sources [13]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.04), the bond market was sluggish, with yields on 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future, and the bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.02), the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with different trends for various - term yields. The Fed's December minutes showed a likely 2 - time rate cut in 2026, but short - term employment data boosted the yield curve [14][15]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.49%. In the primary market, 20 REITs were successfully issued in 2025, and 3 new REITs made progress last week [15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry. The formal version has made adjustments to the redemption fees of index funds and bond funds, which is beneficial in the short and long term. It also regulates other fees in the fund sales process to build a transparent, fair, and sustainable industry ecosystem [4][16][19]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [22][23]. 3.2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The value style includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [26][27]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth. It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [28]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The growth style aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [31]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical) components. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35][36]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36][37]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [45][46]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [48][49]. 3.2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [52]. 3.2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth and upward curve while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns and strict drawdown control. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [55]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns, and selects 5 funds. It adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [57]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%, selects 10 funds each period, and focuses on fixed - income plus products with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [59]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [63]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [66]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Selects bond - type funds with an average convertible bond investment ratio of more than 60% in the latest period and more than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [68]. - **QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [72]. - **REITs Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the type of underlying assets [74].

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market maintained volatility with major indices showing mixed results during the three trading days from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext fell by 0.59% and 1.25% respectively [3] - The highlights were in thematic stocks related to commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications, with significant gains in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media, while public utilities, food and beverage, and electrical equipment saw declines [3] - The average daily trading volume increased to 21,283 billion yuan, up by 1,632 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [3] - The gradual rise in indices since mid-December is attributed to high expectations for the year-end market, driven by forward-looking investments for 2026 [3] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and inflation expectations are influencing market sentiment, with a focus on upcoming non-farm employment and inflation data [3] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed weak performance, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 4.50 basis points to 1.33%, the 10-year yield up by 0.51 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.96 basis points to 2.25% [6] - Factors influencing the bond market include reduced selling pressure from profit-taking at year-end and the implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees, which have eased concerns among institutional investors [6][7] - However, the central bank's stance indicates a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, and there are ongoing concerns regarding long-term bond supply [7] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" on December 31, 2025, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reform in the public fund industry [8] - The new regulations provide detailed guidelines on fund subscription and redemption fees, with specific provisions for index and bond funds, allowing for more flexible fee structures [8][9] - This adjustment aims to prevent large-scale redemptions that could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and to mitigate liquidity risks during bear market phases [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing an early "spring rally," with a bullish trend expected to continue due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and liquidity support [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.07%, closing at 4011 points, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 4.05%, closing at 1399 points, indicating strong market performance [2]. - Factors contributing to the positive market outlook include a stable RMB exchange rate, domestic liquidity easing, and improving economic recovery expectations, with institutional investors showing a willingness to increase positions [2][3]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the current A-share fundamentals remain robust, supported by a favorable policy environment and liquidity conditions, which are expected to bolster market confidence [2][3]. - The anticipated influx of new capital into the market is driven by year-end fund flows, improved corporate profit expectations, and supportive policies, with a focus on emerging sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and new energy [2][3]. - The year 2026 is highlighted as a pivotal year for multiple positive factors, including coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to create a friendly liquidity environment for the market [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a favorable cross-year trend, supported by a better liquidity and exchange rate environment compared to previous years [1] - The strong performance of the RMB and a generally loose domestic liquidity environment are anticipated to contribute to a "good start" for the A-share market after the New Year [1] - Multiple positive factors, including RMB appreciation, concentrated benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the funding environment, are likely to drive the continuation of the cross-year trend in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - The current market risk appetite remains high, providing room for high-elasticity technology themes to continue their upward trajectory [2] - Despite the overall valuation level of the technology sector being relatively high, it has not yet entered a frenzy stage, indicating a significant gap from historical bubble periods [2] - Global liquidity expectations are anticipated to further support high-valuation technology assets, with a focus on sectors such as robotics, sports, and non-bank segments, while caution is advised against overcrowded areas like commercial aerospace [2] Group 3 - The improvement in industry prosperity is primarily reflected in price increases, with significant price rises observed in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as in base metals such as copper [3] - The basic chemical sector has seen marginal price increases in methanol, asphalt, natural rubber, and in power equipment, particularly lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [3] - The semiconductor sales cycle is on the rise, maintaining industry prosperity, with several foundries and storage manufacturers recently signaling price increases [3]

- The report discusses a rotation model for micro-cap stocks, which uses the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" as a key indicator. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, it suggests investing in micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it suggests investing in the Mao Index. Additionally, the 20-day closing price slope of both indices is used to determine potential style shifts. When the slopes diverge and one is positive, the model recommends investing in the index with a positive slope[17][24][29] - A timing risk control indicator is constructed based on the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and the volatility crowding degree of micro-cap stocks (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator reaches its threshold, a closing signal is triggered[17][24][29] - The report evaluates eight major stock selection factors across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000). Among these, technical factors (IC mean: 9.30%) and volatility factors (IC mean: 6.86%) performed well, while consensus expectation factors (IC mean: -3.20%) and market capitalization factors (IC mean: -2.71%) showed weaker performance[44][45][46] - For convertible bonds, the report constructs quantitative bond selection factors, including equity-related factors (e.g., equity growth and financial quality) and valuation factors (e.g., parity and floor premium rates). The IC mean and long-short portfolio net value of these factors are tracked regularly[53][54][57]

1月5日，A股节后开门红，时隔34个交易日，沪指重回4000点，收获罕见12连阳。截至收盘，沪指涨 1.38%，深成指涨2.24%，创业板指涨2.85%，科创50指数大涨超4%。 华金证券指出，回顾2010年以来的市场数据，元旦假期期间港股的表现与随后A股节后走势关联，相关 系数大约在0.5左右。 这个历史规律，成为了预判节后行情的重要参考依据之一。 市场分析认为，A股迎来多重利好消息： 1、人民币、港股、中概股等中国资产假期的强劲表现为A股节后走势注入信心。 2、半导体迎多重利好：国家大基金大比例增持中芯国际、中国芯片整合升级、台积电获美政府年度许 可。 3、据证券时报，完善年金基金长周期考核的指导意见已经出台，相关工作正在推进中。 盘面上，保险板块走强，新华保险、中国太保双双续创历史新高;脑机接口概念股全线爆发并引爆医药 股，创新医疗等超20股涨停;芯片、半导体产业链大涨，东微半导等多股涨停或涨超10%;短剧游戏、教 育等AI应用方向午后冲高，蓝色光标再创10年新高;商业航天概念热度不减，中国卫通5天3板，金风科 技等多股涨停;此外，军工、油气、锂电、机器人、游戏等板块盘中均有所表现。下跌方面，海南自贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened positively on the first trading day of 2026, with major indices showing gains, driven by multiple favorable factors including RMB appreciation and improved macroeconomic expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major A-share indices, including the CSI A500 and ChiNext indices, rose by 1.1% and 1.5% respectively as of 9:52 AM [1] - Active trading was observed in related ETFs, with both A500 ETF (E Fund, 159361) and ChiNext ETF (E Fund, 159915) nearing transaction volumes of 1 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Citic Securities highlighted several positive factors such as the appreciation of the RMB, concentrated release of benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the capital market [1] - Historical data suggests that after a "eight consecutive days of gains," the market is likely to continue its upward trend [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The investor sentiment index has rebounded to 80, indicating a strong potential for the continuation of the "cross-year market" in January [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI A500 index consists of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, with a balanced industry distribution, emphasizing emerging industries like information technology and healthcare [1] - The ChiNext index is composed of 100 stocks from the ChiNext board, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology and new energy [1] Group 5: ETF Management Fees - Both A500 ETF (E Fund, 159361) and ChiNext ETF (E Fund, 159915) have a low management fee rate of 0.15% per year, which can help investors seize opportunities in the "cross-year market" [1]

光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货："跨年行情"可能缺席 1、盘面逻辑存在背离 我们认为，1月指数继续在中枢内震荡的概率较高，指数级别冲破中枢向上的条件可能还未成熟。春季躁动行情需要一定的条 件，对小盘指数而言，需要政策边际放宽流动性；对大盘而言，需要通胀预期的持续改善。当下上述条件并不突出。从盘面来看， 三组逻辑背离可能支撑上述观点：（1）价格持续上涨但成交量未明显增加；（2）融资余额上涨但指数隐含波动率回落；（3） A500ETF大幅申购但IF净空头增加。上述逻辑背离表明市场可能并未对指数向上突破做好准备，12月下旬的指数走强更多是题材轮 动引发的短期资金热情。 2、当前基本面环境与历史上"跨年行情"存在差异 历史上1月指数涨跌幅的绝对值水平确实高于其他月份，存在明显的"跨年行情"。我们以2017年至2025年的连续9年作为样本。 中证1000在其中7年的1月录得负增长，其中2022年和2024年均由流动性收窄引发较大跌幅。仅2020年1月和2 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Expectations - The likelihood of a "cross-year market" in January is low, with indices expected to continue oscillating within a central range due to insufficient conditions for a breakout [1][2] - Historical data shows that January indices have often recorded negative growth, with significant declines in 2022 and 2024 due to tightening liquidity [2] - The adjustment of index constituents in December has increased the weight of growth sectors, particularly in the tech and AI industries, indicating a market expectation aligned with current trends [3] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has shown a continued oscillating pattern, with a steepening yield curve influenced by a combination of loose funding and rising risk appetite [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted significant reverse repo operations to maintain liquidity, with a net injection of 653 billion yuan in December [5] - Government bond issuance in December totaled 21,048 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 5,002 billion yuan, indicating a robust supply in the bond market [6] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, indicating a return to expansion territory, with notable improvements in production and new orders [7] - The service sector also showed slight recovery, with the business activity index rising to 49.7, driven by favorable weather and increased construction activity [7][8] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced significant increases in December, with gold reaching a monthly high of 4,550.52 USD/oz and silver rising by 26.92% [9][10] - The market for precious metals is influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [10][11] - The outlook for January suggests a high volatility environment for platinum and palladium, with potential buying opportunities following price corrections [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a positive outlook for the A-share market at the beginning of the year, with various brokerages expecting a "good start" despite some caution about short-term uncertainties [1] - CITIC Securities' strategy team highlights multiple favorable factors such as RMB appreciation, concentrated benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the capital market, which are expected to drive the A-share market's performance [1] - Historical data suggests that after an "eight consecutive days of gains," the market is likely to continue its upward trend, with the investor sentiment index rising to 80, indicating room for further growth [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan's strategy indicates that the A-share market is likely to see an influx of new capital at the beginning of 2026, driven by factors such as the insurance sector's performance and the RMB's appreciation, which may enhance foreign investment activity [1] - Zheshang Securities notes that while the market experienced slight fluctuations before the New Year, the recent rise in the Hong Kong market and the A50 index suggests a high probability of a "good start" for A-shares post-holiday [1] - Huaxia Fund's investment strategy emphasizes the importance of tracking the CSI 300 index, which reflects the overall performance of A-shares across key sectors, providing a balanced investment approach [2]