记者 辛圆 据央行官网周五发布消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会于9月23日召开。 9月美联储恢复降息，并有可能持续降息，意味着外部因素对国内实施适度宽松货币政策的掣肘进一步弱化。 央行同时提到，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成 本下降。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 央行提到，畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均 衡水平上的基本稳定。 另外，央行提到，持续做好支持民营经济发展壮大的金融服务，充分发挥支持小微企业融资协调工作机制作用，进一步打通中小微企业融资的堵点和卡点。 着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度，巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发 展新模式。切实推进金融高水平双向开放，提高开放条件下经济金融管理能力和风险防控能力。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 ...

中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第三季度例会 会议强调，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会和中央 经济工作会议精神，按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，牢牢把握高质量发展首要任务，扎实推进中国式 现代化，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局。把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位 置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策协调配合，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见 性，扩大内需、稳定预期、激发活力，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。 本次会议由中国人民银行行长兼货币政策委员会主席潘功胜主持，货币政策委员会委员徐守本、李春 临、廖岷、宣昌能、李云泽、吴清、朱鹤新、谷澍、黄益平、黄海洲出席会议。康义、王一鸣因公务请 假。中国人民银行北京市分行、山西省分行、海南省分行、四川省分行、西藏自治区分行负责同志列席 会议。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行稳中有 进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行 ...

股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250926 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 今年8月经济数据普遍转弱，固定资产投资增速继续下行，房地产投资降幅进一步扩大， 基建和制造业投资增速放缓。房地产销售短暂回暖后再次下滑，房企资金周转压力加 大，对土地购置和新项目建设保持谨慎。 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 节前央行加大逆回购操作，市场流动性保持充裕。M1与M2之间的剪刀差收窄，社融增 速加快主要受政府债券发行放量的带动，包括超长期特别国债和地方专项债。 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美国第二季度GDP增速环比大幅上修至3.8%，创两年新高，当周初请失业金人数连续两 周下降。表明美国经济依然稳健，劳动力需求有所放缓，但仍在充分就业的范围内， 惠农保价稳产 沪深两市融资余额突破2.4万亿元，再创历史新高。央行本周共开展15674亿7天期和 9000亿14天期逆回购操 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth [1][2] - The meeting acknowledges the complex external environment, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while domestic economic performance shows improvement [2][3] - The PBOC plans to enhance monetary policy control, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing scale with economic growth and price expectations [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the importance of large banks in supporting the real economy and encourages small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core responsibilities [4][5] - Structural monetary policy tools will be effectively implemented to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4][5] - The PBOC aims to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on high-quality development and modernizing the economy [5]

会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行稳中有 进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑 战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功 能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导 机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏 观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使 用效率，防范资金空转。增强外汇市场韧性，稳 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度(总第110次)例会于9月23日召开。会 议指出，要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，增强银行资 本实力，共同维护金融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大 文章"，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资 支持。用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本 市场稳定。 持续做好支持民营经济发展壮大的金融服务，充分发挥支持小微企业融资协调工作机制作用，进一步打 通中小微企业融资的堵点和卡点。着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地 盘活力度，巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发展新模式。切实 推进金融高水平双向开放，提高开放条件下经济金融管理能力和风险防控能力。 会议强调，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会和中央 经济工作会议精神，按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，牢牢把握高质量发展首要任务，扎实推进中国式 现 ...

Group 1 - The overall fiscal revenue in China for the first eight months of this year is approximately 17.5 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1][3] - The broad fiscal expenditure reached about 24.2 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 8.2%, with a deficit of about 6.7 trillion yuan, which is a 42% increase year-on-year [1][5] - The fiscal expenditure growth rate has slowed down significantly in August, with a year-on-year increase of only 6%, down 6.1 percentage points from July [6] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to establish new policy financial tools to address the capital shortage for project construction, with an expected scale of 500 billion yuan [2][7] - The new policy financial tools are designed to supplement project capital and leverage additional financing, focusing on areas such as technological innovation and consumption upgrades [7][8] - The issuance of local government special bonds has accelerated, with a net financing of 1.027 trillion yuan in the first eight months, which is an increase of 463 billion yuan year-on-year [5][10] Group 3 - Tax revenue for the first eight months is approximately 12.1 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [3][4] - The revenue from government funds is about 2.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, primarily due to a decline in land sales revenue [4][5] - The fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with suggestions to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan in local government bonds to alleviate hidden debt risks [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tool, with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, aims to support projects across eight key sectors, with a portion of the funds allocated specifically for private enterprises, indicating a strong governmental commitment to bolster the private economy [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Tool Characteristics - The new policy financial tool is characterized by its fiscal support nature, with funding potentially sourced from the central bank's pledged supplementary lending (PSL) at a low interest rate of 2%, and possibly even lower than 1% due to central government subsidies [2][3]. - This tool is designed to address the capital shortage in local projects, which has been a bottleneck for the effective use of special bonds [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Potential - The 500 billion yuan financial tool is expected to leverage investments up to 5 trillion yuan, significantly enhancing the funding available for various projects [2][3]. - The tool's implementation could lead to a broad expansion of credit, potentially increasing infrastructure investment growth by approximately 2 percentage points within the year [7]. Group 3: Focus Areas - The financial tool will prioritize eight sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, consumer infrastructure, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture, transportation and logistics, and municipal and industrial parks [3][5]. - A specific allocation of 100 billion yuan is designated to support private enterprises, reflecting the government's commitment to fostering private sector growth [3]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The preparation for the new financial tool has progressed significantly, with project applications and local government initiatives underway, indicating a potential rollout in the third quarter [6][8]. - If launched in the third quarter, the tool could play a crucial role in stimulating economic growth amid a challenging economic environment [6][7].

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The article published in "Qiushi" emphasizes the importance of building a unified national market as a major decision by the central government, necessary for constructing a new development pattern and enhancing international competitiveness [9][10] - The State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang discussed the implementation of the national ecological environment protection conference, highlighting that the construction of a beautiful China is a long-term systematic project requiring sustained efforts [11][12] - The People's Bank of China adjusted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to a multi-price bidding system to maintain liquidity in the banking system [22][25] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Analysis - In the A-share market, major indices remained stable in the third week of September, with the CSI 100 and ChiNext indices rising by 1.08% and 2.34% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3% [23] - The central bank's net fund injection was 11,923 billion yuan, indicating a slight tightening of liquidity in the market [3][26] - Economic data for August showed a year-on-year industrial value-added growth of 5.2%, while retail sales increased by 3.4%, suggesting a need for counter-cyclical policy adjustments [26][30] Group 3: International Policy Developments - President Xi Jinping's phone call with President Trump focused on stabilizing Sino-US relations and addressing mutual concerns, indicating a constructive dialogue [14][15] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months reflects a shift in monetary policy, with the target range now at 4.00%-4.25% [16][19] - The Fed's updated economic growth forecast for 2025 was raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, indicating a more optimistic outlook [19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative impact of US tariff policies is gradually emerging, international trade activities are slowing down, and the global economy will still face downward pressure. The Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle, but the reduction of the balance sheet continues, which may lead to a shortage of US dollar liquidity and financial de - leveraging. The stock markets of major developed countries such as Europe and the United States are at historical highs, and asset prices are at risk of being re - evaluated. - China's economic recovery foundation is not solid, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline and consumption growth slowing marginally. Only industrial production remains at a high level. Macroeconomic policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and the proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, while the monetary policy will remain moderately loose. - In the fourth quarter, the valuation of stock indices will be supported by risk appetite at the denominator end, but stock indices should still be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset before corporate profits improve significantly. The restart of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, giving more room for China's monetary policy, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline. The uncertainty of US tariff policies is gradually fading, and the international geopolitical situation is expected to ease. Gold is at risk of a deep adjustment [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook - **Market Performance in Q3 2025**: Global stock markets rose in resonance, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reaching new highs. Commodities such as coal, steel, and non - ferrous metals rebounded. Gold broke through upwards after 4 months of consolidation, with London spot gold approaching $3,800 per ounce, up more than 40% for the year [4]. - **Outlook for Q4**: The negative impact of US tariff policies will further appear, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in Q4, and the global economy will face downward pressure. If the US job market weakens further, the Fed may shift from "preventive" to "relief" interest rate cuts. Global stock markets may face asset value re - evaluation risks [5]. - **US Situation**: Employment pressure is increasing, and the Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the consumer confidence index dropped to 58.2, new non - farm employment was 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year [7][9]. - **European Situation**: The European Central Bank suspended interest rate cuts in September, and the benchmark interest rate is approaching the neutral level. The eurozone economy has warmed up, with the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, low unemployment, and stable inflation [11][14]. - **Japanese Situation**: The Japanese economy maintains a moderate recovery, and the central bank maintains a slow interest rate hike rhythm. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, the consumer confidence index reached a new high, the unemployment rate dropped to 2.3%, and inflation remained above 2% [16][19]. Domestic Economic Situation Analysis - **Overall Situation in Q3 2025**: Affected by US tariff policies, China's economic downward pressure has emerged again, with fixed - asset investment declining, consumption growth slowing, and only industrial production remaining high. The foundation of economic recovery is not solid, and demand is insufficient [21]. - **Negative Impact of US Tariff Policies**: In August, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, still in the contraction range. From January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, industrial production slowed slightly but remained high, consumption growth slowed, CPI turned negative, PPI decline narrowed, and foreign trade growth slowed [23][25]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, with super - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds mostly issued. The monetary policy will remain loose, and there is more room for operation with the Fed's interest rate cuts. Deposit rates are expected to be cut, and there may be a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [31][33]. Asset Allocation - **Stock Indices**: Corporate profits are still declining, and the inventory cycle is in the active de - stocking stage. There is still room for the risk - free rate to decline, and there are many positive factors affecting risk appetite. In Q4, stock indices are likely to oscillate widely, and the key is whether corporate profits can improve significantly [38][39]. - **Bonds**: The negative impact of US tariff policies is emerging, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice. The Sino - US interest rate spread will narrow, and China's monetary policy has more room. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may decline [40]. - **Gold**: In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices depend on the US dollar and real interest rates. In Q4, as trade policy uncertainty decreases and geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and high real interest rates [41][42].