大摩指，内地通缩格局是传统电信业ARPU增长的主要阻力，对公司利润、现金流的强调，可能抑制新 业务收入的增长，这一情况在2025年已经得到验证，料2026年也呈现类似趋势。尽管2025年第一季度出 现了DeepSeek，但由于收入规模有限以及政府端采用速度较慢，该行认为中资电信商收入的上行空间 有限。该行预测行业服务收入在2026年将增长1.7%(略高于2025年的0.9%)，总净利润增长3%，主要由 效率提升推动。该行认为国企/政府的AI采用可能成为三大电信商(中国移动(00941)、中国电信(00728)和 中国联通(00762))的潜在上行催化剂。 该行指中资电讯股获重估的驱动因素有限：(1)中国收益率不太可能进一步下行; (2)增长显著放缓至低个 位数的利润增长，派息比率提升的空间也缩窄。该行预期中资电讯H股在2026年的目标股息率为6-7%， 并继续偏好排序：中国电信>联通>中国移动。 根据该行经济团队的预测，内地2026年将持续面临通缩，十年期国债收益率触底，人民币汇率走强。美 国在2026年上半年将进一步降息，该行将大中华电信营运商评级下调至"中性"。 该行指，中资电讯商多年的上升周期驱动因素— ...

Group 1 - The economic gap between China and the United States has been significant, with China attempting to surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy, a feat that has been attempted by other nations in the past but ultimately failed [1] - In 1987, China's GDP was only 0.27 trillion USD compared to the U.S. GDP of 4.86 trillion USD, marking a gap of 18 times [1] - By 1998, China's GDP surpassed 1 trillion USD for the first time, reducing the gap to one-ninth of the U.S. GDP [3] Group 2 - China's entry into the WTO in 2001 marked the beginning of a "golden decade" for its economy, with GDP growth rates consistently in double digits, reaching over 6 trillion USD by 2010 [3] - In 2020, despite the global pandemic, China's economy grew by 2.3%, with a GDP of 15 trillion USD, which was 71.2% of the U.S. GDP [5] Group 3 - After the pandemic, the U.S. implemented aggressive monetary policies, leading to significant inflation, while China's nominal GDP growth stagnated, resulting in a GDP of 18.27 trillion USD in 2023, only 66.9% of the U.S. GDP [7] - The depreciation of the Chinese yuan and U.S. inflation have been key factors in the widening GDP gap, with the yuan depreciating over 10% on average [9] Group 4 - Predictions indicate that the yuan will appreciate to around 6.7 by the end of 2026, which could lead to a nominal GDP of approximately 20 trillion USD for China, positioning it as the second country to surpass this threshold [13] - The ongoing trend of yuan appreciation and higher actual GDP growth rates in China compared to the U.S. suggests that the GDP ratio between the two countries may return to over 70% [15] Group 5 - By purchasing power parity, China's GDP surpassed that of the U.S. in 2014, and projections indicate it will continue to grow, potentially exceeding 40 trillion international dollars by 2025, which would be 33% higher than the U.S. [17]

January 23, 2026 09:51 AM GMT 亚洲经济 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：中国：人民币升值是否 有助于再平衡？ 我们不认同近期市场上日渐形成的观点⸺认为人民币升值将 有助于推动中国经济再平衡。大幅升值将阻碍通缩出清、压 缩企业利润率，并放缓工资增速。要实现可持续的再平衡， 仍需要大规模财政宽松以提振消费。 要点 In this report, we discuss why we think RMB appreciation will be more limited than the emerging consensus, and why it would not help ease deflationary pressures and rebalance the economy. This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Economic Overview - **US Economy**: The US economy is expected to exhibit a K-shaped recovery in 2025, with stable consumption from high-income households, primarily driven by asset markets and housing prices. In 2026, inflation is projected to decline, and the peak effects of tariffs will fade, potentially enhancing purchasing power for middle- and low-income households, leading to a dual-driven consumption model [1][2] - **Eurozone Economy**: The Eurozone's economic performance is complex, with Germany showing significant potential for acceleration due to fiscal stimulus, while France and Italy are underperforming. Spain is strong but has a small share in the Eurozone. By the end of 2027, Eurozone growth is expected to exceed potential levels, accelerating from 0.1%-0.2% to around 0.35% [1][5] - **China's Macroeconomic Environment**: The macroeconomic environment in China remains challenging in 2026, with persistent deflationary pressures. However, advancements in advanced manufacturing are expected to improve global market share for exports. The People's Bank of China is unlikely to allow significant appreciation of the yuan to avoid exacerbating deflation, which could negatively impact corporate revenues, wage growth, and consumption [1][6] - **Asian Economies**: Other Asian economies are primarily driven by exports, with technology exports benefiting in 2025, while non-technology exports are expected to recover in 2026, leading to improved capital spending, employment, and consumption [1][3][7] Key Themes in Capital Expenditure - **Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investment**: In 2025, corporate spending will focus on AI, with non-AI related expenditures affected by policy uncertainties. AI investments are crucial for sustainable corporate spending, although a significant portion may not be reflected in GDP due to being intermediate or imported goods. If the recovery broadens, non-AI related spending may gain momentum, contributing to cyclical economic upturns [1][4] Risks and Considerations - **US Tariffs on Europe**: If the US imposes an additional 10% tariff on Europe, it could reduce GDP growth by 30-60 basis points. Retaliatory measures could further increase downside risks, indicating that new trade uncertainties could negatively impact Europe [1][3][9] - **Federal Reserve's Response to AI Adoption**: Rapid adoption of AI could significantly boost productivity growth, nearing 3%, similar to the tech boom of the 1990s. This may accelerate actual growth while inflation could decline, allowing the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, although timing will depend on balancing strong data with signs of falling inflation [1][8] Additional Insights - **Potential for Fiscal Stimulus in China**: A comprehensive demand-driven fiscal stimulus from Beijing is unlikely unless significant social stability challenges arise. In such cases, a shift towards consumer-focused policies, including increased social welfare spending, particularly for migrant workers, may be considered [1][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policies between the US and Switzerland [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movement - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a downward trend, breaking the key support level of 0.7752 and reaching a low of 0.7740, marking a new low for the period [1]. - The USD has faced selling pressure, with the exchange rate trading at 0.7767, reflecting a daily decline of 0.4358% [1]. - The CHF's safe-haven status is highlighted by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment regarding economic recovery, leading to increased demand for the CHF [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate, with expectations that this will remain until at least the second half of 2027, despite weak inflation indicators [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June, which narrows the interest rate differential and pressures the USD/CHF exchange rate [2]. - Swiss inflation remains weak, with January CPI showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating mild deflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for USD/CHF is bearish, with the price below the 0.78 level and no significant support levels below [2]. - Key support is identified at the 0.7740 low, and a break below this level could lead to further declines towards the 0.7700 mark [2]. - Resistance is seen at the 0.7800 level, which is crucial for any potential upward movement; failure to break above this level may hinder any rebound [2]. Group 4: Future Monitoring - Upcoming events to watch include the SNB's monetary policy meeting on March 19 and subsequent inflation and manufacturing data from Switzerland, as increased deflationary pressure could prompt a dovish shift in SNB policy [3]. - Monitoring of Federal Reserve officials' statements and US economic data is essential, as a rebound in the USD index could provide a temporary boost to the USD/CHF exchange rate [3].

曾经，日本国债收益率长期处于低位，堪称全球债市的"压舱石"，对全球各国政府的融资成本起到了压 制作用。但如今，这一局面已然逆转。 今年1月中旬，日本40年期国债收益率飙升至4%以上，创下该国各类期限主权债券三十余年来的新高。 背后原因有二：其一，持有日本过半主权债券的日本央行，已开始缩减购债规模;其二，日本首相高市 早苗提出减税计划，政府或需增发国债以筹措资金。 受此影响，日本债市接连数月出现罕见波动，国债拍卖多次遇冷。投资者正警惕日本债市的波动蔓延至 全球市场——目前，全球各国政府能否有效遏制持续的财政赤字，已引发市场普遍担忧，全球债市收益 率已节节攀升。 国债的传统吸引力何在? 国债向来被视为最安全的投资资产之一，因为发行主体——政府——破产的概率相对较低。政府可自主 制定政策，且通常能通过多种渠道筹集所需资金。对于长期国债而言，投资者需要锁定利率长达二三十 年甚至四十年之久，因此这类债券往往能以较低风险，为投资者提供相对可观的收益率。 特别是日本规模达7.5万亿美元的国债市场，数十年来一直被视作全球最稳定的债市之一。然而近期， 多重因素导致国债需求疲软，进而引发债价下跌，而收益率则随之反向走高。 需求缘 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026 is projected to maintain a growth target of around 5% to achieve the goal of reaching a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average growth rate of approximately 5.5% over the next 11 years [1][4]. Core Economic Insights - Despite a slight decline in global economic growth forecasts, China's external demand remains resilient, benefiting from diversified export markets and improved product competitiveness. However, the difficulty in expanding export shares is increasing, and the contribution of goods and services trade to GDP may decline [1][5]. - Domestic demand faces challenges, particularly due to ongoing weakness in real estate investment, while manufacturing investment is expected to be a highlight, driven by the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][6][7]. - Consumer spending shows resilience but remains overall unsatisfactory, with a rapid decline in government consumption expenditure. Fiscal expansion may help alleviate this issue, as consumer spending is influenced by income and wealth, which have been negatively impacted by the weak real estate market [1][8][9]. Important Economic Indicators - In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% in Q4, slightly up from 1.1% in Q3. However, nominal growth remains low at 3.8%, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [2]. - The contribution of goods and services trade to GDP reached 1.64 percentage points, accounting for 32.7%, marking a historical high, while capital formation's contribution was only 0.77 percentage points, the lowest since 1998 [2]. Consumer Behavior and Fiscal Policy - The central government's plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be announced during the upcoming "Two Sessions," which could significantly impact domestic demand and counteract deflation [10]. - The decline in government consumption expenditure, which constitutes about 16% of GDP, has been rapid, necessitating fiscal expansion to address this issue [8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Although China faces deflationary pressures, the GDP deflator index showed improvement in Q4, and CPI rebounded mainly due to base effects. However, without strong policy measures, consumer confidence may not recover, and prolonged deflation could affect corporate profits and household income [3][11]. - Recent adjustments to the central bank's structural monetary policy tools have had limited market impact, highlighting the need for fiscal policy to play a more significant role in stimulating demand and combating deflation [12]. Global Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influenced by political factors, has led to fluctuations in interest rate expectations and a weaker dollar, which may benefit the Chinese stock market amid global capital reallocation [3][14][15]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform well due to a favorable economic growth outlook, with the potential for increased capital inflows as the RMB appreciates [15]. Bond Market Opportunities - The bond market is anticipated to present opportunities primarily in a range-bound environment, with yields potentially declining under renewed deflationary pressures and rising when such pressures ease [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's trade surplus reached a historic high of over $1 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of over 20%, defying global trade protectionism expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Surplus Analysis - The significant increase in trade surplus is attributed to factors such as enhanced export competitiveness, global industrial chain restructuring, and shifting dynamics, although these are not the primary reasons [1]. - If the trade surplus were primarily due to increased export competitiveness, it would typically correlate with rising employment and wages, which has not been observed [3]. - The actual exchange rate of the Renminbi depreciated by approximately 4% in 2025, despite a nominal depreciation, indicating that the relative prices of Chinese goods in international markets have decreased [3][5]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The decline in wages has made it possible for China to export at lower prices, suggesting a link between wage reductions and the ability to maintain competitive pricing in exports [5]. - The labor market is experiencing a shift where many workers may accept lower wages rather than face unemployment, contributing to the price reduction of exported goods [5]. - The observation of the labor market through sectors like ride-hailing and food delivery indicates that wage and employment improvements are not optimistic, which may hinder price recovery from deflation [9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The record trade surplus can be explained by either industrial upgrades and enhanced export competitiveness or by deteriorating labor market conditions, lower wages, reduced export prices, and depreciated actual exchange rates [11]. - Misjudging the economic situation based on the first explanation could lead to underestimating the severity of deflation, resulting in policy misjudgments and delays [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from deflation to structural inflation in China, highlighting the unique economic conditions that differentiate it from the inflationary pressures seen in the US and Europe. The focus is on the supply-side constraints in the industrial sector, particularly in the metals market, which are expected to drive prices upward despite weak consumer demand [5][10][12]. Group 1: Economic Context - Since the second quarter of 2023, China has entered a state of deflation, with CPI showing continuous negative growth and PPI declines widening, contrasting with the persistent inflation in the US and Europe [5][8]. - The primary issue is not insufficient monetary supply but rather a significant downward adjustment in market expectations for future income, leading to insufficient effective demand [7][8]. Group 2: Structural Inflation - The article introduces the concept of "structural inflation," which is expected to manifest primarily in the industrial sector rather than in consumer goods [10][11]. - The rise in prices of industrial metals, particularly copper, is identified as an early indicator of this structural inflation, driven by supply constraints rather than increased consumer demand [12][14]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply of copper is constrained by long development cycles, high capital requirements, and declining ore grades, which have increased development costs [14][16]. - Similar supply constraints are observed in silver, where the majority of supply comes from mining, which has been declining since 2016, and is also affected by the production of other metals [17][19]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite the significant price increases in industrial metals, the article suggests that the main trend for these commodities has not yet ended, indicating a potential for continued investment opportunities [20][22]. - The article emphasizes that the current phase is characterized by industrial inflation, with expectations that this will eventually extend to other sectors, including chemicals and agriculture, although the latter may take longer to respond [24][25]. Group 5: Economic Cycles - The article relates the current economic conditions to the Kondratiev wave cycle, suggesting that the world is in a recession phase characterized by stagnation in leading economies and rising geopolitical tensions [28][32]. - The analysis indicates that while demand may be weak, supply constraints will continue to support commodity prices, particularly in the context of rising costs and geopolitical risks [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that holding cash deposits in 2026 is a wise financial strategy, especially in a deflationary environment where purchasing power is increasing despite low interest rates [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The average CPI growth in 2025 was 0%, indicating a shift into a deflationary cycle, which enhances the purchasing power of cash deposits [1]. - Prices of essential goods and services have decreased significantly, with the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities dropping by 8.36% year-on-year, and first-tier cities seeing over a 30% decline from peak prices [3]. Group 2: Investment Risks - The investment market in 2026 is fraught with risks, as 81% of retail investors reported losses in 2025, averaging a loss of 21,000 yuan per person [3][4]. - Many investors have been trapped in high-risk stocks and funds, with public funds averaging a 20% loss in 2024, and some bank wealth management products even yielding negative returns [3][4]. Group 3: Advantages of Holding Cash - Cash deposits provide safety and security, as they are protected by deposit insurance, ensuring 100% compensation for amounts up to 500,000 yuan [4]. - Having sufficient cash reserves allows individuals to navigate crises more effectively, providing options during unemployment or unexpected medical expenses [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present a unique opportunity for cash holders to buy quality assets at lower prices, as property and stock prices are declining [7]. - Investors with cash can strategically wait for the right moment to invest, capitalizing on lower asset prices when the market stabilizes [7]. Group 5: Cash Management Strategies - Effective cash management involves reasonable allocation, such as using money market funds for emergency funds and higher-yielding fixed deposits for long-term savings [9]. - The article suggests that in 2026, saving money is not merely a conservative choice but a smart strategy to cope with economic fluctuations and enhance purchasing power [9].