美联储不着急降息，继续观察通胀指标，黄金转换位在哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

局势突变 中东紧张局势再度升级。美东时间6月21日，特朗普宣布，美国对伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕等核设施进 行了"非常成功的袭击"。特朗普称，伊朗关键的核设施已被"彻底摧毁"。 随后，伊朗发动反击。据伊朗迈赫尔通讯社报道，在当地时间6月22日早上对以色列的新一轮导弹袭击中，伊 朗首次使用了"开伯尔"导弹。据了解，"开伯尔"导弹很有可能指的是伊朗此前曾公布的"霍拉姆沙赫尔-4"远程 弹道导弹，被认为是"伊朗破坏力最强的导弹"。 分析人士称，未来一段时间内，全球金融市场将继续围绕以伊冲突展开。 刚刚过去的周末，美国突然对伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施发动袭击，引发各方高度关注。美国 总统特朗普称，伊朗关键的核设施已被"彻底摧毁"。有分析人士警告称，当前美国直接卷入冲突，可能会引发 美股市场恐慌。 美国政策智库外交关系协会的中东问题高级研究员Ray Takeyh解读称，特朗普对伊朗发动空袭的决定，标志着 中东地区安全与局势进入不可预测的新阶段。他表示："这是一个新阶段，也可能是个问题多发的阶段。" 美联储后续的货币政策路径也持续扰动美股市场。美联储主席鲍威尔本周将连续出席美国参议院和众议院的听 证会，直面 ...

美联储何时开始降息？ 6月12日，美国劳工统计局发布的PPI数据保持温和态势，关税政策对美国物价影响尚未显现。此外，美国上周失业人数继续维持高位。由于物价保持稳定而失业数 据维持高位，市场开始押注美联储年内降息的次数。 | 当天，美股三大指数小幅低开，随后震荡走高，截至发稿，三大指数均翻红。 | | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42870.39 | 4.62 | 0.01% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19641.85 | 25.97 | 0.13% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6035.19 | 12.95 | 0.22% | 现货黄金盘中拉升，一度涨超1.3%，逼近3400美元/盎司。美元指数盘中跳水，跌至3年多来最低水平。 物价稳定，失业数据超预期 根据美国劳工统计局周四公布的报告，5月PPI环比上涨0.1%，涨幅低于市场预期的0.2%。扣除食品和能源后的核心PPI也环比上涨0.1%，低于市场预期的0.3%。 PPI数据显示，5月份批发和零售商的 ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3.0%, slightly below the anticipated 3.1% [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by only 0.1%, which was lower than the expected 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in price growth [1] - The report highlights that despite the current high tariff policies not significantly impacting consumers, there may be increased price pressures in the second half of the year as companies seek to maintain profit margins [1] Sector Analysis - **Services**: The service sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, primarily driven by a 2.9% rise in trade service margins, although transportation and warehousing services decreased by 0.2% [2] - **Goods**: Goods prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable increases in tobacco products (up 0.9%) and gasoline, while jet fuel prices fell by 8.2% [3] - **Core PPI**: Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating stable underlying inflation trends [4] Intermediate Demand - **Processed Goods**: There was a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in processed goods, with processed materials (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4%, while processed energy goods fell by 1.2% [5] - **Unprocessed Goods**: Unprocessed goods saw a significant month-on-month decline of 1.6%, primarily driven by an 18.7% drop in energy materials like natural gas, alongside a 1.4% decrease in non-food materials [6] Key Price Movements - **Price Increases**: Key items that saw price increases included tobacco (+0.9%), gasoline, diesel, and primary non-ferrous metals (+4.6%) [8] - **Price Decreases**: Items that experienced price declines included jet fuel (-8.2%), pork, carbon steel scrap, and natural gas (-18.7%) [9] - **Service Sector Prices**: In the service sector, air passenger transport prices fell by 1.1%, while furniture retail and securities brokerage services also declined, contrasting with increases in system software publishing [10]

Core Viewpoint - The May PPI data in the U.S. showed a mild impact from costs of goods and services, with core PPI figures falling short of expectations, indicating potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to high tariffs and corporate profit margin concerns [1] Group 1: PPI Data Insights - The May PPI data revealed an expansion in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors, following a decline in April [1] - Year-to-date profit margins have shown fluctuations, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policies on prices and demand [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts are closely monitoring the PPI report as certain components are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE data [1] - Areas of weakness in May included declines in airfare prices, investment management fees, and moderate healthcare costs [1] - The PCE report is expected to be released later this month, which will provide further insights into inflation trends [1]

背后导火索是特朗普再度抛出关税与制造业政策，拟将钢铁进口关税提高至50%，并要求特斯拉等车企必须在美国本土完成整车与零部件生产，引 发市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧，科技板块一度集体下挫。 5月的最后一个交易日，美股经历了剧烈波动：三大指数盘中快速下挫，随后反弹，走出"V"形行情。 不过，市场尾盘快速修复，标普500与纳指仍双双创下近一年以来最佳月度表现。 美国政策不确定性显著加剧市场波动，两位知名投资大鳄已被爆出几乎全清仓美股…… 01 特朗普：进口钢铁关税提至50% 特斯拉等车企须在美生产整车 美国关税又有新动态：当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。 公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响，从下周起，美国进口钢铁关税将从25%提高至50%。" 受到该消息影响，美股钢铁股盘后普遍走高。钢铁公司CLEVELAND-CLIFFS盘后大幅拉升，涨幅33%，纽柯钢铁盘后涨超13%。 细柯钢铁 ▲ NUE 已收盘 05-30 16:10:00 美东 7231人加自选 ( 109.36 +0.42 +0.39% US 融 空 期 LO 总市值 252.35亿 ...

受到该消息影响，美股钢铁股盘后普遍走高。钢铁公司CLEVELAND-CLIFFS盘后大幅拉升，截至发稿 涨幅超过26%。 昨夜，美股巨震。三大指数盘中加速跳水后拉升，走出"V"形行情。 特斯拉跌超3%。特朗普表示，包括特斯拉在内的美国汽车制造商必须在美国生产整车和所有零部件， 而不是在国外生产。之前汽车制造商在加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲生产零部件，这让他很困扰，但在接下来 的一年里，这些汽车制造商"必须在美国生产整车"。 多只中概股重挫。纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌2.69%。迅雷跌超11%，小牛电动跌超8%，金山云跌超 5%，小鹏汽车、蔚来均跌超3%。 （原标题：特朗普突发，又加关税！美股巨震！） 美国关税又有新动态：当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至 50%。 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响， 从下周起，美国进口钢铁关税将从25%提高至50%。" 当地时间5月30日，欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇与美国商务部长卢特尼克 进行了通话。谢夫乔维奇强调，双方应持续推进合作，致力于寻找前瞻性解决方案，以缓解当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed a significant slowdown in April, indicating increased economic uncertainty and a shift towards saving among households [1] Economic Data Summary - In April, U.S. PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month, a decrease from 0.7% in March [1] - The PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.5%, both slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2% [1] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The latest data reflects potential anxiety among U.S. consumers regarding the economy, with the previous quarter showing the weakest consumption spending in nearly two years [1] - Despite the increase in tariffs on imported goods not yet being fully reflected in rising prices, consumer confidence has declined, and expectations for personal financial prospects have reached historical lows [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, influencing its monetary policy decisions and thus attracting significant market attention [1]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, Nasdaq down 0.67%, and S&P 500 down 0.43% [1] - Large tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia down over 2%, Google down over 1%, and Amazon, Apple, and Meta showing slight declines, while Tesla and Microsoft experienced minor gains [3] Individual Stock Performance - Apple shares decreased by 0.59% to $198.780, while pre-market trading showed a slight decline of 0.31% [4] - Tesla shares increased by 0.44% to $360.025, but pre-market trading indicated a drop of 0.80% [4] - Meta's stock fell by 0.25% to $643.450, with a pre-market decline of 0.16% [4] - Amazon shares dropped by 0.82% to $204.020, with a pre-market decline of 0.39% [4] - Nvidia shares fell by 2.85% to $135.230, with a pre-market decline of 0.28% [4] - Google shares decreased by 1.20% to $169.790 [4] Sector-Specific News - Apparel retail giant GAP saw a significant drop of over 20% in its stock price, warning that tariffs would erode its annual operating profit [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2.67%, with major Chinese stocks like Alibaba, Xpeng Motors, and NIO dropping over 3% [6] Commodity Market - Spot gold prices decreased by 0.73% [8] - International oil prices fell, with both Brent and WTI crude oil dropping over 1% [10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Census Bureau reported a dramatic 19.8% month-over-month decline in April's goods imports, the largest drop on record, bringing the total to $2760.97 billion [13] - The trade deficit narrowed to $876 billion in April, significantly better than the market expectation of $1430 billion [13] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.5% year-over-year, matching expectations and marking the smallest increase in over four years [13][14]

另据美国商务部最新公布的数据，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——4月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.5%，符合预 期，为四年多来最小涨幅。数据发布后，交易员仍押注美联储将在9月降息。 号称"美联储传声筒"的《华尔街日报》记者NickTimiraos警告称，预测人士估计，随着关税政策的影响显现， 预计今年5月，尤其是6月，美国商品价格涨幅将会加快。美股开盘后，三大指数呈现窄幅震荡格局，美股大型 科技股多数走弱。 美国关税政策的扰动仍在持续。 重磅数据出炉 受关税政策影响，美国贸易数据出现史诗级波动。今晚，美国普查局发布的《经济指标预览》报告显示，4月 份美国商品进口额从3月的3444.70亿美元下降至2760.97亿美元，环比暴跌19.8%，创有记录以来的最大降幅。 北京时间5月30日晚间，美国商务部普查局表示，随着关税政策实施前进口抢跑带来的推动作用消退，美国4月 商品贸易逆差大幅收窄。 据最新发布的《经济指标预览》报告，美国4月份商品贸易逆差收窄至876亿美元，市场预估为逆差1430亿美 元，前值为逆差1632亿美元。 报告显示，4月份美国商品进口额从3月的3444.70亿美元下降至2760.97亿美元，环比大幅下降 ...