Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a moderate pullback on September 24, with the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closing at $3,768.5 per ounce, down $28.4, a decline of 0.75% [1] - The cautious sentiment in the market was influenced by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation with the risks of a slowing job market, providing no new insights into future monetary policy [1] - The upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index also contributed to the cautious market sentiment, putting pressure on short-term gold prices [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.63% on the same day, closing at 97.873, which limited further increases in gold prices [1] - Despite heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there was a reaffirmation from both U.S. and Russian leaders to seek a peaceful resolution to the crisis [1] - Analysts noted that while short-term market sentiment is cautious, gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic uncertainty, especially as the Federal Reserve shifts towards a more accommodative policy [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Spot gold reached a record high of $3,790.97 per ounce on Tuesday, closing at $3,763.93, with an increase of 0.46% [1] - The strong momentum in the gold market is driven by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions, which have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Market sentiment remains bullish despite cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the economic outlook, with the focus shifting to the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy for trading gold is to maintain a bullish outlook without chasing prices, focusing on buying on dips rather than predicting market tops [2] - After reaching a peak of $3,791, gold experienced a significant pullback to a low of $3,752, indicating a potential high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [2] - Key support levels are identified at $3,715, and as long as this level holds, a strong shift in trend is unlikely [2][4] Group 3: Silver Market Overview - Spot silver rose to $44.4 before undergoing a correction, with current lows around $44, suggesting a potential buying opportunity on dips [5] - Support for silver is noted at approximately $43.5, with resistance levels identified in the $44.8 to $45 range [5] - Similar to gold, silver trading strategies recommend waiting for price corrections before entering long positions, with a cautionary note regarding potential volatility leading up to the National Day holiday [5]

Group 1 - The dollar index experienced slight downward pressure after a previous rise due to strong economic data and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with market participants focusing on key events such as Fed Chair Powell's speech and the upcoming core PCE index release [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut did not open the door for a broader easing cycle, as internal cautious voices emerged, indicating limited space for further rate cuts due to ongoing concerns about inflation risks and a still accommodative financial environment [3] - The U.S. Treasury market remained stable, with minor yield changes, as the market awaited clearer data signals, with predictions suggesting that the core PCE data may be weaker than previously feared, potentially providing the Fed with more reasons to remain on hold [4] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, the dollar index is at a sensitive point, showing signs of a bearish reversal pattern as it tests a key resistance level, which could lead to a downward adjustment if confirmed [5] - The recent dollar pullback provided a brief respite for other major currencies, such as the British pound, which saw a slight increase; however, the pound's rebound is constrained by significant domestic fiscal challenges and market pessimism regarding upcoming PMI data [7] - The dollar index is likely to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with its next directional choice heavily influenced by the upcoming PCE data and Powell's speech, as the market navigates a tug-of-war between economic data and central bank policy expectations [8]

Group 1: Market Performance - The US stock market indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up by 0.23% and the S&P 500 slightly rising [1] - Oracle's stock price increased by 3% following the announcement of co-CEOs, indicating a focus on expanding its cloud computing business [1] - Apple's stock surged nearly 4% due to alleviated tariff concerns and strong demand for its latest iPhone models [3] Group 2: Company Financials - Oracle's stock had a market capitalization of approximately $905.8 billion, with a P/E ratio of 72.81 and a dividend yield of 0.57% [2] - Apple's stock had a market capitalization of around $3.8 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 38.28 and a dividend yield of 0.42% [5] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley upgraded ASML's rating to "overweight," citing multiple growth opportunities leading up to 2027 [7] - Analysts noted that the demand for new products from Apple exceeded expectations, contributing to increased buying pressure and stock price support [3]

Group 1 - The price of gold reached a historical high on September 22, with various gold shops pricing gold jewelry at 1090 yuan per gram, while the lowest price was 1045 yuan per gram [1][5] - The investment gold bar price ranged from 852 to 869 yuan per gram, and silver was priced at 9.98 yuan per gram [1][6] - The spot gold market showed strong performance, closing up by 40.26 dollars, a rise of 1.1%, ending at 3684.40 dollars per ounce [1][2] Group 2 - The market is closely watching the upcoming release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation indicator [1][2] - A series of important economic data is expected this week, including the September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), new home sales, durable goods orders, and the final report of the second quarter GDP [1][2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, marking the strongest annual increase since the late 1970s [2] Group 3 - Current domestic gold prices are at 840 yuan per gram, while international gold prices are at 3717 dollars per ounce [3] - The international prices for platinum, palladium, and silver are 1429 dollars per ounce, 1181 dollars per ounce, and 43.63 dollars per ounce, respectively [3] Group 4 - Various gold shops in Hong Kong reported gold prices at 40880 HKD per tael, with all major brands showing an increase [8] Group 5 - The gold recycling price today is 827 yuan per gram, with platinum at 303 yuan per gram, palladium at 249 yuan per gram, and silver at 9.13 yuan per gram [7]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $42.68, with a recent price of $42.74, reflecting a 0.14% increase, and has seen a high of $42.77 and a low of $42.32 during the day [1] - The international silver market is showing a short-term oscillating trend, with potential upward movement towards $43.2 if the trend continues [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $42.40 and $42.20, while resistance levels are at $43.00 and $43.30 [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recruiting price data collectors for a critical inflation indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to personnel shortages [3] - The BLS has posted 25 part-time economic assistant positions across major cities, which are essential for gathering price information from local businesses [3] - If these positions are filled quickly, the proportion of estimated prices in the CPI may significantly decrease in the coming months, reducing the error range of current estimates [3]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's financial market has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.16%, a decrease from the previous prediction of 2.19% made just a week earlier [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The financial market anticipates Brazil's economic growth to be 1.85% in 2026 and 1.88% in 2027 [1] Inflation Expectations - The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which is Brazil's official inflation indicator, remains unchanged at a forecast of 4.85%, ending a streak of 14 consecutive weeks of declining predictions [1]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a rebound on September 10, opening at $3645.53 per ounce, reaching a high of $3657.50, a low of $3618.74, and closing at $3644.43 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August recorded a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, below the market expectation of 0.3%, and a previous value of 0.7% [2] - The year-on-year PPI for August was 2.6%, also below the market expectation of 3.3% and the previous value of 3.1% [2] - The data indicates a significant reduction in inflationary pressures, leading traders to speculate on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Following the lower-than-expected PPI, market expectations have shifted towards the Federal Reserve initiating a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 25 basis point reduction in the upcoming meeting [4] - The market is pricing in a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with an 8% chance of a 50 basis point cut [10] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, saw its largest month-on-month decline in a decade [4] Inventory Data - The U.S. wholesale inventory for July increased by 0.1%, revised from a previous value of 0.2%, while durable goods inventories fell by 0.2% [5] - Non-durable goods inventories rose significantly by 0.7%, with notable increases in pharmaceuticals (1.8%), clothing (1.9%), and grocery items (2.0%) [5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio decreased to 1.28 from 1.29 in June, indicating a healthier sales environment [5] Political Developments - The Trump administration is appealing a federal judge's ruling that temporarily blocks the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which could impact the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [6] - The Senate Banking Committee has voted along party lines to support the nomination of Stephen Milan as a short-term Federal Reserve governor, aiming for confirmation before the next interest rate decision [7] Trade and Geopolitical Issues - President Trump has reportedly requested the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India and China as a strategy to pressure Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict [8] - Tensions between the U.S. and Israel have surfaced, with Trump expressing disappointment over Israel's actions against Hamas in Qatar, indicating potential strains in U.S.-Israel relations [9]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market's bearish trend continues, and the strategy of combining crude oil shorts with out - of - the - money call options can be maintained [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but volatility increases after consecutive rises [3]. - The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a probability of moving higher [4]. - The market conditions of various industries are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [2 - 48]. Summary by Category Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell. Even in an optimistic scenario, the market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the bearish trend persists. The strategy of combining shorts with out - of - the money call options can be continued [2]. - **Precious Metals**: U.S. non - farm employment data was revised down, and the Middle East geopolitical situation is tense. Precious metals may be strong before the Fed meeting, with increased volatility [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation indicators. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a chance of moving up [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and it is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply is in surplus. The price is expected to find support around 2,830 yuan [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may narrow further [7]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show increased supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy on the profit margin of the futures market remains, and the domestic market may lead the overseas market down [8]. - **Lead**: The production of recycled lead decreased significantly, and the supply pressure eased, but the terminal consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices declined. The market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. Energy - related - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The decrease in warehouse receipts provides some support for the prices of LU and FU, and the futures prices rose slightly at night [20]. - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume slowed down in early September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The price is pressured by oil prices in the short term but has support at the bottom [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is stable due to strong procurement demand. The domestic market has a strong bottom support, but the futures market's upside is limited [22]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price was slightly adjusted down. The market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the weakening sentiment, the price decreased slightly. In September, supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease. It is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **PX & PTA**: They opened low and then oscillated upwards. PX has limited production growth space, and PTA's price is driven by raw materials. The demand is improving [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillated at a low level at night. The supply and demand are mixed [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Short - fiber's supply and demand are stable, and it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle - grade resin has a long - term over - capacity problem [31]. Building Materials - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: Night - trading steel prices declined. Supply and demand are weak, and the market may oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is stable, and the demand may recover. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices weakened during the day. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand may recover. The prices are affected by policy expectations and have high volatility [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The prices oscillated during the day. The demand for iron - making may recover, and the supply of silicon - based alloys is increasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of relevant policies [17][18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean good - quality rate decreased slightly. The global demand for soybean oil may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic supply may have a gap in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: U.S. soybean oil prices fell. Domestic soybean oil supply exceeds demand, and palm oil import losses are narrowing. They can be considered for low - price buying in the long term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed - related products is uncertain, and the prices may rise [37]. - **Corn**: The futures price continued to fall at night. The new - season corn price has certain expectations, but the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic new - cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: U.S. sugar prices oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar market is in good condition. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price dropped significantly. The supply is expected to be stable, and the futures price may continue to decline [44]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. The supply is low, and the demand is not in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price declined. The port inventory is relatively high, and the supply is loose. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The spot and futures prices of pigs declined. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded due to the departure of short - selling funds. The spot price is rising seasonally. The far - month contracts can be considered for long - position layout [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market was weak, and the futures prices fell. The market style may continue to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yield curve may become steeper [48]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price is expected to decline further, and the 10 - contract may fall below the low of the first half of the year. The far - month contracts are relatively strong but may also be under pressure [19].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.20% to 45,544.88 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.15% to 21,455.55 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.64% to 6,460.26 points [1][2]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector in the US saw a significant drop, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting over 3%. Major companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC ADR, AMD, and Oracle all experienced declines exceeding 3%, while Micron Technology, Applied Materials, ASML ADR, and Intel fell over 2% [3][4]. - Nvidia's market value decreased by $145.6 billion (approximately 1038.2 billion RMB) in one night, with its stock price dropping by 3.3% [4]. AI Chip Companies - Marvell Technology, a US AI custom chip giant, faced severe selling pressure, with its stock price plunging nearly 19% during intraday trading and closing down 18.6% at $62.87, marking a three-month low. The company's market capitalization shrank to $54.2 billion (approximately 38.64 billion RMB) [4]. Chinese Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.5%, with Alibaba surging 12.9%, marking its largest increase since March 2023. The company has reportedly invested over 100 billion RMB in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters [7][8]. - Other Chinese tech stocks like Baidu and JD.com also saw gains, while Netease and Pinduoduo experienced declines [8]. Gold and Commodities - Gold prices increased due to heightened risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.2% to $3,516.1 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 2.86% and a monthly rise of 5.2% [10][11]. - Silver futures also saw a rise of 2.64%, closing at $40.75 per ounce, with similar weekly and monthly gains [11]. Economic Indicators - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the core PCE price index accelerating to a 2.9% growth. Consumer confidence has declined, and the trade deficit has widened, leading to a projected slowdown in Q3 GDP growth to 2.2% [13]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen, with probabilities exceeding 80% [14].