Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade mines remains stable; the supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has rebounded, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. On the smelting side, currently, the raw material prices are high, while the nickel price is in a downward trend, which affects the profitability of other smelters and causes losses. Some non - integrated smelters choose to cut production. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants is compressed, and the 300 - series is being converted to other products; the demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, but its proportion is relatively small and has limited impact. Recently, both supply and demand are weak, downstream purchases on demand, domestic inventory has decreased, but overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, the short - selling force has weakened with the reduction of positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 120,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 350; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai Nickel is - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5190 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40. The position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 76,791 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,947. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Nickel is - 6,072 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 250. The LME nickel inventory is 204,006 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 288. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,718 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 586. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 11,010 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,224. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,221 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36 [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 350. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 400. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 185.29 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2.65 [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, with an increase of 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7.5923 million tons, with an increase of 0.1999 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.44 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 23,900 metal tons, with an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, with a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, with an increase of 31,300 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 396,000 tons (decrease not specified); the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons, with a decrease of 5,900 tons [3]. Industry News - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in May, the same as in April. In the 12 months through May, the PCE inflation rate climbed from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. Excluding volatile components such as food and energy, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, while the core PCE inflation rate in April rose only 0.1%. Macroeconomically, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed has risen moderately, with the core PCE price rising 0.2% month - on - month in May, and consumer spending has seen the largest decline since the beginning of the year. China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw their profits decline 1.1% year - on - year from January to May, and 9.1% year - on - year in May. The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation in the face of increasing trade barriers. Trump said he will choose someone who wants to cut interest rates as the Fed chairman, called Powell "stupid" for artificially keeping interest rates high, and believes the US interest rate should be between 1% and 2% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach with a reference price range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton. The fundamental situation shows high uncertainty in the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and restricted imports due to Thailand's ban on transit transportation. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. On the smelting side, there are raw material shortages and cost pressures, and the开工率 is low. In terms of demand, the photovoltaic and electronics industries are in a downturn, and domestic inventories have risen slightly. However, overseas inventories are decreasing, and the LME tin price is strong, which drives up the domestic price. Technically, long - positions are weakening, but the price has reached the MA60 mark [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 268,110 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price was 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars. - The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin was - 20 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the position of the main contract was 31,484 lots, down 1,518 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in futures was 819 lots, down 696 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,175 tons, up 60 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 6,955 tons, down 10 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 665 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 6,750 tons, up 199 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price was 267,200 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 267,760 yuan/ton, down 2,450 yuan. - The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was - 1,470 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 120.01 US dollars/ton, up 24.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 257,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 261,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,630 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1407 million tons, down 0.0339 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In the US, the PCE price index rose 0.1% in May, and the PCE inflation rate climbed from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in May. - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May, it decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. - The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment. Trump criticized the Fed and advocated for lower interest rates [3].

Market Performance - European stock indices experienced a broad increase, with the UK FTSE 100 rising by 0.72%, France's CAC40 up by 1.78%, and Germany's DAX increasing by 1.62% [4] - The US stock market also saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 1%, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs [3][2] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq-100 index rising by 1%. Notable performers included Amazon (+2.85%), Alphabet (+2.20%), and Nvidia (+1.76%), while Microsoft and Tesla saw declines of 0.30% and 0.61%, respectively [6][9] - Nvidia's stock reached a new all-time high, with a market capitalization exceeding $3.8 trillion, maintaining its position as the world's most valuable company [7] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.22%. Century Internet surged over 18%, while other companies like JinkoSolar and Bilibili also saw significant gains [10] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell by over 1%, with London gold down 1.63% to $3,273.335 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 1.85% to $3,286.1 per ounce [17][19] - International oil prices also saw slight declines, with ICE Brent crude down 0.52% and NYMEX WTI crude down 0.26% [18] Nike's Financial Performance - Nike's stock rose by 15.25%, marking its largest single-day gain in nearly four years, with a total market value surpassing $106.4 billion [13] - The company's latest quarterly report showed revenues of $11.1 billion, slightly below the previous quarter's $12.606 billion but above expectations of $10.72 billion [15]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new historical high, surpassing the previous peak from December 2024 [1] - The S&P 500 Index also set a new historical high, breaking through the February 2025 high [1] - Chinese concept stocks continued to adjust, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declining, and specific stocks like Zai Ding Pharmaceutical and Li Auto experiencing drops of nearly 4% and over 3%, respectively [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 2% at one point, primarily due to a decrease in geopolitical risks following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's acceptance of a ceasefire with Iran [2][3] - The current high prices of gold are facing downward pressure, and investors are advised to be cautious, while silver is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, potentially outperforming gold in the context of high gold-silver ratios and the release of overseas risks [3] Group 3: Inflation Indicators - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure in the U.S., showed a month-over-month increase of 0.1% in May, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.2% when excluding food and energy prices [4] - The PCE price index is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy decisions, making it a significant data point for market participants [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the release of inflation data, traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates starting in September, with increased bets on three rate cuts in 2025 [5]

Group 1 - US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, and Nasdaq up 0.24% [3][5] - Cyngn saw a significant increase, rising over 70% [3][5] - Nike's stock rose nearly 12% after the company reported better-than-expected revenue for Q4 2025 [3][12] Group 2 - The Nasdaq index broke its previous high from December 2024, reaching a new historical peak [1] - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in May, while the core PCE index rose by 0.2% [9] - The year-on-year increase in the core PCE price index for May was 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.5% [11] Group 3 - European stock indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.76%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.52%, and France's CAC40 up 1.31% [7][8]

柯林斯表示，她的基本预期是在今年晚些时候开始降息。"这可能意味着一次降息，也可能不止一次， 但我认为我们需要依据数据来判断。我没有看到降息的紧迫性。" 周四，多位美联储官员讲话，他们明确表示，需要再观察几个月，才能确认由关税引发的物价上涨不会 以持续性方式推高通胀，他们尚未准备在下次会议上支持降息。 近日，特朗普在其美国总统第一任期内任命的两位美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼的讲话引起关注。他们均表 示，如果通胀保持受控，他们愿意在美联储7月29-30日会议上就开始降息。 然而，自那以后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和旧金山联储主席戴利在内的约十位 美联储政策制定者纷纷对这一观点泼了冷水。 多位官员表示可以再等等 戴利在周四接受媒体采访时承认，越来越多的证据显示关税可能不会引发大规模或持续性的通胀上升。 但这只是让她对秋季降息持开放态度。戴利表示：" 我一直的主要预期是，我们将在秋季开始调整利 率，这一观点并未改变。" 今年以来，价格增长速度低于预期，美联储偏好的通胀指标在4月同比上涨2.1%，略高于2%的目标。 周四早些时候公布的数据还显示，持续申请失业救济人数升至2021年11月以来最高，过去六周明显上 ...

美联储不着急降息，继续观察通胀指标，黄金转换位在哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

局势突变 中东紧张局势再度升级。美东时间6月21日，特朗普宣布，美国对伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕等核设施进 行了"非常成功的袭击"。特朗普称，伊朗关键的核设施已被"彻底摧毁"。 随后，伊朗发动反击。据伊朗迈赫尔通讯社报道，在当地时间6月22日早上对以色列的新一轮导弹袭击中，伊 朗首次使用了"开伯尔"导弹。据了解，"开伯尔"导弹很有可能指的是伊朗此前曾公布的"霍拉姆沙赫尔-4"远程 弹道导弹，被认为是"伊朗破坏力最强的导弹"。 分析人士称，未来一段时间内，全球金融市场将继续围绕以伊冲突展开。 刚刚过去的周末，美国突然对伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施发动袭击，引发各方高度关注。美国 总统特朗普称，伊朗关键的核设施已被"彻底摧毁"。有分析人士警告称，当前美国直接卷入冲突，可能会引发 美股市场恐慌。 美国政策智库外交关系协会的中东问题高级研究员Ray Takeyh解读称，特朗普对伊朗发动空袭的决定，标志着 中东地区安全与局势进入不可预测的新阶段。他表示："这是一个新阶段，也可能是个问题多发的阶段。" 美联储后续的货币政策路径也持续扰动美股市场。美联储主席鲍威尔本周将连续出席美国参议院和众议院的听 证会，直面 ...

美联储何时开始降息？ 6月12日，美国劳工统计局发布的PPI数据保持温和态势，关税政策对美国物价影响尚未显现。此外，美国上周失业人数继续维持高位。由于物价保持稳定而失业数 据维持高位，市场开始押注美联储年内降息的次数。 | 当天，美股三大指数小幅低开，随后震荡走高，截至发稿，三大指数均翻红。 | | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42870.39 | 4.62 | 0.01% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19641.85 | 25.97 | 0.13% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6035.19 | 12.95 | 0.22% | 现货黄金盘中拉升，一度涨超1.3%，逼近3400美元/盎司。美元指数盘中跳水，跌至3年多来最低水平。 物价稳定，失业数据超预期 根据美国劳工统计局周四公布的报告，5月PPI环比上涨0.1%，涨幅低于市场预期的0.2%。扣除食品和能源后的核心PPI也环比上涨0.1%，低于市场预期的0.3%。 PPI数据显示，5月份批发和零售商的 ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3.0%, slightly below the anticipated 3.1% [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by only 0.1%, which was lower than the expected 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in price growth [1] - The report highlights that despite the current high tariff policies not significantly impacting consumers, there may be increased price pressures in the second half of the year as companies seek to maintain profit margins [1] Sector Analysis - **Services**: The service sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, primarily driven by a 2.9% rise in trade service margins, although transportation and warehousing services decreased by 0.2% [2] - **Goods**: Goods prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable increases in tobacco products (up 0.9%) and gasoline, while jet fuel prices fell by 8.2% [3] - **Core PPI**: Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating stable underlying inflation trends [4] Intermediate Demand - **Processed Goods**: There was a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in processed goods, with processed materials (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4%, while processed energy goods fell by 1.2% [5] - **Unprocessed Goods**: Unprocessed goods saw a significant month-on-month decline of 1.6%, primarily driven by an 18.7% drop in energy materials like natural gas, alongside a 1.4% decrease in non-food materials [6] Key Price Movements - **Price Increases**: Key items that saw price increases included tobacco (+0.9%), gasoline, diesel, and primary non-ferrous metals (+4.6%) [8] - **Price Decreases**: Items that experienced price declines included jet fuel (-8.2%), pork, carbon steel scrap, and natural gas (-18.7%) [9] - **Service Sector Prices**: In the service sector, air passenger transport prices fell by 1.1%, while furniture retail and securities brokerage services also declined, contrasting with increases in system software publishing [10]