CPI唱罢，PPI登场，空头将再下一城？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 黄金空头将再下一城？ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 - trillion repurchase, the bond yields decline. The bond market will continue the short - term volatile pattern, and maintain the bull - market foundation in the medium and long term supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is neutral as the repurchase rate rebounds and the bond futures prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.53 and a growth rate of 0.54%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1751, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.05%; DR007 is 1.57, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.19%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.06%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with an increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.06% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), trading - to - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds and the treasury bond issuance situation [6][7]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Multiple charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance situation [31][33][36]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spread of futures [40][43][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [46][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trends of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76].

Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained generally stable in the first half of the year, with CPI down 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first quarter [2] - In June, CPI turned from decline to an increase of 0.1%, influenced by international commodity price fluctuations and effective domestic demand policies [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the first quarter [2][4] Group 2: Food Price Dynamics - Food prices decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Prices for fresh fruits and aquatic products increased by 2.7% and 0.8%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to CPI [2] - Pork prices averaged a 3.8% increase in the first half, while beef prices saw a 6.9% decline [2] Group 3: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices fell by 3.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline expanding by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - Gasoline prices dropped by 7.1%, contributing approximately 0.25 percentage points to the CPI decline [3] Group 4: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a notable decline of 3.6% by June [5] - International commodity price fluctuations led to a mixed price trend in domestic oil and non-ferrous metal industries [5] - Oil and gas extraction prices averaged a 9.6% decline, while non-ferrous metal smelting prices increased by an average of 6.2% [5] Group 5: Export and Industry Price Pressures - Uncertainties in the global trade environment led to price declines in export-oriented industries, with textiles and metal products down 2.3% year-on-year [6] - Sufficient supply and weak demand contributed to price declines in coal and electricity production, with coal prices down 15.4% [7] Group 6: Policy Impact on Prices - Macro policies have stabilized prices in certain industries, with the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing down 1.6%, a reduction narrower than in the first quarter [7] - Consumer demand policies have led to price increases in discretionary consumption sectors, with prices for arts and crafts up 12.3% [7]

Group 1 - The overall consumer price index (CPI) has remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in the first half of the year, consistent with the first quarter [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, has gradually rebounded, increasing by 0.4% year-on-year in the first half, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2][3] - Food prices have seen a reduced decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% in the first half, narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Energy prices have experienced a larger decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% in the first half, widening by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline expanding to 3.6% by June due to various factors including international trade uncertainties [4] - The prices in the oil and gas extraction industry have seen a monthly year-on-year decline ranging from 1.3% to 17.3%, averaging a decrease of 9.6% in the first half [4] - Conversely, the prices in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry have increased for six consecutive months, with a year-on-year average increase of 6.2% in the first half [4] Group 3 - Macro policies have been effective in stabilizing prices in certain industries, with the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing decreasing by 1.6% year-on-year, a reduction that has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [5] - The demand for optional consumption has accelerated, leading to significant price increases in specific sectors, such as a 12.3% increase in the manufacturing of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods [5] - High-tech manufacturing prices have also risen, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices increasing by 4.1% year-on-year [5]

① 07:45 美联储洛根就美国经济发表讲话 ② 14:00 英国6月CPI ③ 17:00 欧元区5月季调后贸易帐 ④ 20:30 美国6月PPI ⑤ 21:15 美国6月工业产出月率；美联储哈玛克发表讲话 ⑥ 22:00 美联储理事巴尔发表讲话 ⑦ 次日02:00 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书 ⑧ 次日05:30 美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话 周三（7月16日）重点关注财经事件和经济数据 ...

Export Performance - In June, China's export growth rate increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from May, primarily driven by exports to the U.S.[4] - Exports to the U.S. showed a significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 18.4 percentage points, despite still being in deep negative growth[4]. - High-tech products continued to support export growth, while low-end manufacturing exports showed notable recovery, particularly in furniture, toys, and plastic products[4]. Credit Expansion - Social financing (社融) grew by 8.9% year-on-year in June, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with government bond issuance being a major driver[14]. - The balance of RMB loans in June remained stable at a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, marking the first halt in decline since April 2024[14]. - Active credit expansion is expected to continue, supported by government bond issuance and policy financial tools, which may further boost social financing growth[15]. Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, continuing a downward trend, with significant drops in the black metal and coal industries[8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weak demand recovery[11]. Economic Outlook - The report suggests limited downside potential for export growth in the second half of the year, driven by improved U.S.-China trade relations and global economic recovery[6]. - Despite concerns about potential economic slowdown, the probability of a significant downturn is considered low, with ongoing improvements in export performance and consumer sentiment[20].

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Guangdong decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline as in May, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, which is a larger decline than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with a decrease in growth rate of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - For the first half of the year, the average CPI in Guangdong decreased by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Food and Non-Food Price Trends - In June, food prices in Guangdong fell by 1.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to May, contributing approximately 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decrease [2] - Non-food prices also saw a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, consistent with May, impacting the CPI by about 0.21 percentage points [2] - Month-on-month, food prices decreased by 0.1%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI decline, while non-food prices fell by 0.2%, impacting the CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [3] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Overview - In June, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Guangdong decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with the decline remaining consistent with May, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, which is a larger decline than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points [4] - The average PPI for the first half of the year showed a decrease of 1.3% compared to the same period last year [4] - Among the 38 major industries surveyed, 11 experienced price increases, while 26 saw declines, indicating an industry increase rate of 28.9%, which is an expansion of 2.6 percentage points compared to May [4] Group 4: Industry-Specific Price Movements - Significant price fluctuations were noted in various industries, with the price of educational, cultural, and sports goods manufacturing rising by 10.6%, while black metal mining prices fell by 14.8% [4] - The prices in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries decreased by 13.1%, and the oil and gas extraction industry saw a decline of 10.1% [4] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry experienced a price drop of 9.5%, and the chemical fiber manufacturing industry saw a decrease of 7.0% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from July 7th to July 11th, 2025. It shows that the overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, while different sectors have different trends, such as a decline in real estate sales, an increase in infrastructure investment growth rate, and a narrowing increase in export growth rate [1][9]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.6 points (previous value was 126.5 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value was also an increase of 5.2 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value was 4.8%) [1][9]. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.9 (previous value was 125.8), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value was also an increase of 4.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate drops to 57.1% from 59.0% [1][9][15]. Real Estate Sales: Property Transactions Decline - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 44.0 (previous value was 44.1), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value was also a decrease of 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters, down from 37.8 million square meters [1][9][29]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 119.3 (previous value was 119.0), with a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points (previous value was an increase of 3.0 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 32.7%, up from 31.7% [1][9][39]. Export: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 144.0 (previous value was 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.4 points (previous value was an increase of 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The CCFI index drops to 1314 points from 1343 points [1][9][45]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Decline - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.6 (previous value was 119.5), with a year - on - year increase of 2.1 points (previous value was an increase of 1.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. Passenger car manufacturers' retail is 39,660 units, down from 95,374 units; wholesale is 38,757 units, down from 154,429 units [1][9][57]. CPI: Fruit Prices Continue to Decline - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value was - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.3 yuan/kg, down from 7.4 yuan/kg [1][9][65]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value was 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,769 US dollars/ton, down from 10,047 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,587 US dollars/ton, down from 2,598 US dollars/ton [1][9][74]. Transportation: Flight Numbers Continue to Rise - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.8 (previous value was 128.6), with a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value was an increase of 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) is 14,401 flights, up from 13,985 flights [2][10][87]. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.8 (previous value was 160.6), with a year - on - year increase of 9.5 points (previous value was an increase of 9.6 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The soda ash inventory is 185.6 million tons, up from 178.9 million tons [2][10][93]. Financing: 6M State - owned Joint - stock Bank Draft Rediscount Rate Decreases - The financing high - frequency index is 231.5 (previous value was 230.9), with a year - on - year increase of 29.5 points (previous value was an increase of 29.4 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The 6M state - owned joint - stock bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91%, down from 1.01% [2][10][103].