2026 年 02 月 11 日 输入性因素与中高端制造带动 PPI 环比高增 宏观研究团队 宏观经济点评 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 《灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策 工 具 — 央 行 Q4 货政报告点评》 -2026.2.11 《AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势— 宏观经济专题》-2026.2.11 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 事件：1 月 CPI 同比 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.8%；PPI 同比-1.4%，预期-1.5%， 前值-1.9%。 贵金属与大宗消费品带动核心 CPI 环比超季节性 1 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%；环比持平于前值，为 0.2%。 1、蔬果价格带动食品 CPI 环比增速回落 1 月 CPI 食品项环比涨幅收窄，环比较前值下降 0.3 个百分点至 0%。鲜菜环比 降幅扩大，鲜果环比涨幅 ...

宏 观 研 究 通胀数据 2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何理解 1 月通胀分化？ —— 通胀数据点评（26.01） 事件：2 月 11 日，国家统计局公布 1 月通胀数据，CPI 同比 0.2%、前值 0.8%、预期 0.4%、 环比 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比 0.4%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游 PPI 表现偏弱。国际原油价格下行影响国内石油 开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降 3.1%和 2.5%，油价拖累 PPI 环比-0.08%，煤价 也有走弱，拖累 PPI 环比-0.15%。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨价对中 下游的拉动相对有限，测算中下游仅拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。 受春节错位的影响，1 月 CPI 同比明显回落；但剔除该因素后，CPI 整体仍偏弱。统计局 测算本轮基期轮换对每月 CPI 同比的影响是 0.06 个百分点。今年春节假期与 2025 年形成 错位，导致 1 月同比较前月回落 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%。而 1 月 CPI 环比仅 0.2%、明显低 于往年春节前月的 CPI 表现（0.6%），反映整体 C ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of prices is identified as the most critical logic supporting corporate profit improvement in 2026, which may also influence market styles [1]. Price Trends and Data Analysis - The first inflation data of the year validates the momentum of price improvement, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) reaching a year-on-year high not seen since August 2024 and a month-on-month high since October 2023 [1]. - The proportion of price-increasing subcategories in the comprehensive price database has risen to a relatively high level, indicating a strong correlation with the month-on-month PPI trends [1]. - Recent price increases are characterized by a broader range and richer clues, driven by international commodity price transmission, favorable policies, and trends in the technology industry [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The sectors with significant month-on-month PPI increases in January include non-ferrous metals, non-metallic mineral products (such as building materials), black metals, technology manufacturing, chemical fibers, and agricultural processing [4]. - The price increases in these sectors correspond with the high-frequency tracked price subcategories, indicating a robust link between input inflation and domestic price recovery [4]. Price Increase Clues - The proportion of subcategories with price increases over the past three months is at its second-highest level since 2016, only surpassed by the supply-side reform period in 2017 and the significant inflation period in 2021 [4]. - A detailed table shows various subcategories with significant price increases in January, such as oxygen pressure (62.5%), lithium concentrate (52.3%), and DRAM index (35.7%), indicating strong upward price trends across multiple sectors [6][7]. Future Outlook - The post-holiday period is seen as a critical window for validating price increases, with expectations for further price clues to emerge as the spring construction season begins and policies are implemented after the March meetings [9]. - Historical data suggests that the first quarter is typically a key period for PPI acceleration during inflation cycles, indicating a potential for sustained price increases [9]. Sector Performance Expectations - The relative performance of sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), advanced manufacturing, and resource & infrastructure chains is expected to be strong post-Spring Festival, with higher win rates anticipated [10]. - A statistical analysis shows that industries with a positive correlation to PPI include chemicals, steel, building materials, transportation, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal, among others [14].

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, significantly dropping due to the Spring Festival timing effect[2] - Food prices turned negative year-on-year at -0.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, influenced by last year's high base effect[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but reached a six-month high of 0.3% month-on-month[2] PPI Insights - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] - Key industries showed price increases, such as photovoltaic equipment manufacturing up 1.9% and computer manufacturing up 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy-related industries continued to see price declines, with oil and gas extraction prices down 16.7% and coal mining down 9.8%[2] Future Projections - February 2026 CPI is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially the highest since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand shift[2] - The anticipated month-on-month CPI increase for February is around 0.9%, with new price factors contributing 1.1%[2] - The PPI is projected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting improved industrial price conditions and a gradual recovery of economic momentum[2] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that domestic policy effects may not meet expectations, which could impact inflation and economic recovery[2]

股指期货全景日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） | 4714.8 3091.4 | -5.8↓ IF次主力合约（2602） +2.6↑ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4716.2 3091.6 | -7.8↓ +3.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8336.4 | +36.0↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8342.4 | +28.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8241.0 | +1.2↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8260.2 | -1.4↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1624.6 | -10.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3626.2 | +45.4↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -82.2 | -27.8↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5250.8 | +34.6↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 3544 ...

华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘分析数据时表示，春节错位压制1月CPI同比增速、但2月有望明显回 升，核心CPI环比延续回升态势或显示通胀中枢稳步抬升，有色及通信价格等上涨带动1月PPI超预期上 行。 CPI同比上涨0.2% 从数据来看，1月CPI较12月的0.8%回落至0.2%，环比持平于0.2%。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 随着春节的临近，年货的采买如火如荼，物价也随之小幅波动。 2月11日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比 上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。 节前重要民生商品量足价稳。数据显示，2月5日，商务部会同财政部在少数民族地区组织投放2000吨中 央储备冻牛羊肉，增加节日肉类市场供应。同时，指导各地结合实际，灵活安排地方储备肉菜投放。安 徽、福建、山东等地落实猪肉、冬春蔬菜储备10万吨以上，山西、广西、新疆等地大型批发市场、超市 生活必需品库存量比平时增加10%—20%。河北组织420家商贸流通企业与外地的供应基地签订供货协 议，提前锁定货源。 "值得注意的是，猪肉为 ...

Inflation Forecasts - The CPI is expected to have a mild recovery, with an annual growth rate of 0.6% for 2026, with quarterly estimates of 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.8% respectively[1] - The PPI is projected to turn positive after April, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.5%, with quarterly estimates of -0.9%, 0.5%, 1.1%, and 1.2%[3] Price Movements - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in the previous year[4] - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.4% from -1.9%[6] Food Prices - The impact of the Spring Festival timing on food prices was significant, with vegetable prices decreasing by 4.8% month-on-month, while pork and egg prices rebounded by 1.2% and 2.7% respectively[4] - The overall food price index reflects a mixed trend, with some items experiencing price increases while others decline[11] Sector Analysis - Non-food items showed a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month, driven by seasonal demand, while energy prices continued to be a drag on overall inflation[6] - The adjustment in the weight of food items in the CPI indicates a stronger influence of pork prices on the overall index due to the new base year[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that global supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support resource prices, impacting both CPI and PPI in 2026[29]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 1 月通胀点评 春节错月影响一季度，基期轮换影响全年 1 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略高于万得一致预期； 春节错月因素或将在一季度持续影响 CPI 和 PPI 数据，但基期轮换或影响全 年，统计局测算本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 相关研究报告 《2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告学习体会》 20260211 《策略点评》20260209 《策略周报》20260208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ◼ 1 月 CPI 环比增长 0.2%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.8%，服务 价格同比增长 0.1 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, and below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 0.4%[1] - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.9%, slightly above the expected decline of 1.5%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI remained flat at 0.2%, while the PPI increased from 0.2% in December to 0.4% in January[1] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Core Inflation - The late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to suppress January's CPI readings but boost February's figures significantly[2] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month recovery from 0.2% in December to 0.3% in January, marking a six-month high, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand[2] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.1% in December, impacting the overall CPI negatively[7] Group 3: PPI Trends and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for six consecutive months, with notable improvements in upstream prices for non-ferrous and black metals[8] - The PPI for production materials decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the living materials PPI saw a wider decline of 1.7%[8] - The ongoing "anti-involution" market reforms are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors, with significant increases in prices for educational and entertainment products[8]

[Table_Report] 相关报告 2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比回落至 0.2%，PPI 同比回升至-1.4%，春节错月和输入性通 胀放大了物价波动。 黄金大跌：后续如何看 2026.02.02 非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落 2026.01.31 结构性宽松继续 2026.01.15 M2 增速反弹：哪些驱动力 2026.01.15 美国通胀：延续温和 2026.01.14 PPI 修复继续：输入性影响增加 [Table_Authors] 应镓娴(分析师) 投资要点： | | 021-23185645 | | --- | --- | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 贺媛(分析师) | | | 021-23185639 | | | heyuan3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040129 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-2321982 ...