Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of HKD 434.9 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, representing a decline of 15.8% [1] - The loss attributable to equity holders of the company was HKD 3.2 million, a decrease of 119.4% compared to a profit of HKD 16.5 million in 2024 [1] - The basic loss per share was HKD 0.75, compared to a basic earnings per share of HKD 3.88 in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.01 per share, down from HKD 0.02 per share in 2024 [1] - The company faced significant challenges due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and adverse macroeconomic factors affecting the entire industry [1] - The uncertain environment, particularly regarding tariff developments, has led the industry to adopt a cautious approach, resulting in extended order cycles and strategic adjustments in business plans [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rumor of resuming shipping routes caused a significant drop in the futures market, but the official has refuted it. The market is mainly affected by trading sentiment, and there is no obvious fluctuation in freight rates. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The core factors affecting freight rates are traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [3] Market Conditions - On November 25, the main contract 2602 closed at 1453.5, a decrease of 7.78%, with a trading volume of 51,400 lots and an open interest of 48,200 lots, a decrease of 4946 lots from the previous day [4]. - The market dropped significantly, with heavy trading volume and intense long - short competition. The market fluctuated widely [4]. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - For risk - takers, it was previously recommended to lightly try long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. After the significant drop in the market, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losses. Stop - loss should be set [5]. Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [5]. Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their median forecast for U.S. economic growth next year to 2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a significant rise from 1.3% six months ago [4] - The main drivers of economic growth are expected to be personal consumption and business investment, although nearly all economists anticipate that current tariff policies will drag down economic growth by at least 0.25 percentage points [4] Employment Market - The U.S. job market is projected to add approximately 64,000 jobs per month, which is slightly above the current year's end level but still far below recent norms [7] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the beginning of next year and remain within this range throughout the year [7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is expected to decline to 2.9% by the end of this year and only slightly decrease to 2.6% next year, with new import tariffs contributing an estimated 0.25 to 0.7 percentage points to inflation [7] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and an additional 50 basis points throughout next year, gradually moving towards a neutral rate [7] Trade Policy Impact - Trade policies are seen as a key variable that could disrupt growth prospects, potentially increasing costs and compressing corporate profit margins while also limiting consumer spending [10] - Market participants are advised to closely monitor upcoming data releases to verify whether these economic forecasts align with actual economic performance [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. recorded a budget deficit of $284 billion in the first month of fiscal year 2026, highlighting significant challenges for the Trump administration in reducing federal borrowing in the coming years [1] - The October deficit decreased by 29% year-over-year after calendar adjustments, driven by a 22% increase in fiscal revenue due to record-high tariff income [1] - Despite a substantial rise in Medicare spending, adjusted fiscal expenditures remained roughly flat compared to the same month last year, reflecting the impact of Congress's failure to pass annual appropriations before the new fiscal year began [1] Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - The net tariff revenue for October reached $31 billion, with an average of $29 billion over the previous three months, indicating the ongoing suppression of federal borrowing demand due to tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration [1] - The approval of a temporary spending plan by the legislative body on November 12 is expected to lead to a surge in expenditures in the November budget report [1]

Core Insights - The latest research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve indicates that tariff increases have a "short-term cooling, long-term rebound" effect on inflation, suggesting that while inflation may temporarily decrease, it will eventually exceed levels without policy changes, accompanied by brief fluctuations in unemployment [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The study reveals that after a tariff increase, both consumers and businesses reduce spending due to tightened cost expectations, leading to a temporary slowdown in economic activity and a decrease in inflation [3][4]. - Specifically, a 1% increase in the average tariff rate typically results in a 10 basis point rise in unemployment after one year, with this effect dissipating in the following year [3][4]. - Initially, inflation may decrease by 10 basis points, but this cooling effect fades within the first year, followed by a cumulative increase of 10 basis points in inflation over the next two years, ultimately surpassing pre-policy intervention levels [3][4]. Group 2: Complexity of Tariff Effects - The research highlights the complexity of tariff impacts, noting that while tariffs raise prices at customs, companies may absorb costs by lowering profit margins or adjusting supply chains, and consumers may alter purchasing habits [4]. - The study emphasizes the unprecedented scale and scope of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, with the weighted average tariff rate rising from 2.5% to 13.6%, necessitating cautious interpretation of the research findings [4]. - The current tariff policies have reportedly eroded real income growth for American households due to inflation, with core PCE inflation expected to rise by 0.8 percentage points as a result of these tariffs [4].

Group 1 - The economic performance of Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is described as "bleak," with concerns over her comments regarding Taiwan and a massive stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen, which has drawn comparisons to the UK's "Truss storm" and raised fears of increasing debt undermining Japan's fiscal foundation [1] - The Japanese financial market experienced a rare "triple kill" with significant declines in stocks, bonds, and currency, as the 30-year government bond yield reached a historical high, the yen approached the critical level of 160 against the dollar, and the Nikkei 225 index erased all gains since Takaichi took office, indicating growing investor distrust and concerns about Japan's economic outlook [1] - Experts warn that Takaichi's comments on Taiwan could further complicate Japan's economy, as China is Japan's largest trading partner, and disruptions in supply chains could severely impact Japanese industries [1] Group 2 - Inflation remains a significant issue for Japanese citizens, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increases, while real wages for workers have been declining, with a 1.4% drop in August, the largest decline in three months [2] - The U.S. tariff policy continues to weigh on Japan's economy, as a trade agreement reached in July resulted in a reduction of tariffs on Japanese imports to 15%, which, while lower than previously threatened rates, is still significantly higher than earlier levels this year [2] - Takaichi's poor performance is dragging down Japan's economy and financial markets, with potential further erosion of investor confidence leading to increased selling of yen-denominated assets [2]

Core Insights - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi suggests that the current economic troubles in the U.S. could have been avoided if the Trump administration had not implemented aggressive changes to trade rules and immigration policies [1] Inflation Trends - The consumer price inflation rate is nearing 3%, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target, with indications that inflation will continue to rise [3] - After peaking at 9% in 2022, U.S. inflation experienced a cooling period, but as of April, the annual inflation rate reversed its downward trend, reflecting a rebound [3] - The latest statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the overall consumer price index rose by 3% year-on-year in September, up from 2.3% in April, indicating a significant reversal in inflation trends within five months [3] Factors Influencing Inflation - Higher tariff barriers have increased the cost of imported goods, while strict immigration policies have led to labor shortages, compounded by a global trend towards de-globalization, all contributing to the reversal of the inflation decline [3] - Zandi predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to approximately 3.5% next year, with a long-term expectation of remaining above 3%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [3] Alternative Scenarios - Zandi believes that without the increased tariffs and with a stable flow of immigration, U.S. inflation could stabilize around 2.25% by 2026, as sufficient labor supply would alleviate worker shortages and lower labor costs [4] - Lower tariff barriers would ensure smoother supply chains and help suppress the rise in import prices, while global resource allocation would further stabilize price fluctuations [4] - The Trump administration has claimed effective control over price levels but has quietly adjusted some policies, such as removing tariffs on basic food items, indirectly acknowledging the pressure on living costs [4]

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Impact - The escalation of U.S. tariff policies is significantly altering global trade structures and economic growth paths, with average tariffs rising from approximately 2% to about 15% under the Trump administration, leading to a projected 20% decline in exports to the U.S. compared to a no-tariff scenario [1][13] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) warns that the current U.S. tariff policies are causing unprecedented damage to the international trade system, predicting only a 0.5% growth in global goods trade by 2026 [1] - The U.S. is expected to see a shrinking role in the global trade system as countries seek alternative markets due to rising export barriers [1][13] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Bloomberg Economics forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025, largely due to the delayed impact of tariffs on trade [2][5] - The potential for significant U.S. investments could serve as a growth driver, while risks from AI market corrections and financial market volatility could suppress consumer confidence and economic growth [5][6] Group 3: European Economic Dynamics - Europe is facing long-term economic challenges, including energy crises, geopolitical tensions, and high interest rates, but is also showing signs of resilience through systemic reforms and increased infrastructure spending [2][7] - The former ECB President Draghi's reform proposals and Germany's commitment to boost infrastructure and defense spending indicate a shift towards a more resilient growth model in Europe [2][7] Group 4: Dollar's Global Role - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is being questioned, but there are no ideal alternatives, as other currencies and assets like the euro, gold, and bitcoin have their own limitations [2][8] - A decline in the dollar's role could lead to reduced demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in higher interest rates and increased borrowing costs for the U.S. economy [9] Group 5: U.S. Monetary Policy and Global Capital Flows - The potential restructuring of the Federal Reserve under the Trump administration could lead to faster interest rate cuts, creating a divergence in monetary policy compared to other major central banks [10][11] - If the Fed lowers rates more quickly than other central banks, it may result in capital outflows from the U.S. as investors seek higher returns elsewhere [12] Group 6: China's Economic Transition - China's economy is undergoing a critical transition, with traditional sectors like real estate declining while high-end manufacturing in AI, electric vehicles, and sustainable energy is expected to drive growth into the 2030s [3][14] - The competitive manufacturing sector in China is anticipated to strengthen despite challenges from declining traditional industries [3][14]

Group 1 - The "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), established by Trump and led by Musk, has been quietly disbanded eight months before its contract was set to end [2][3] - The fate of DOGE has been speculated since summer, with reports indicating staff have been relocating and some have taken new positions [3] - Despite claims of cutting hundreds of billions in spending, external financial experts could not verify these figures due to a lack of detailed financial disclosures from the department [4] Group 2 - Musk's mission to eliminate government regulations faced significant criticism during his tenure at DOGE, leading to its premature operational end [3][4] - The disbandment of DOGE reflects the internal resistance to reform within the Trump administration and highlights the challenges in executing policy changes [5] - The recent media reports confirm long-held suspicions about DOGE's exit from the political landscape [5] Group 3 - Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy is facing legal challenges, with several Supreme Court justices questioning its legality [6] - The White House is preparing a backup plan in case the court rules against the tariff policy, exploring options under the Trade Act of 1974 [7] - Trump expressed determination to maintain the tariff policy regardless of the court's decision, indicating a commitment to unilateral trade actions [7] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex situation with mixed signals regarding growth and interest rates [8] - The recent government shutdown resulted in a permanent economic loss of $11 billion, yet the Treasury Secretary remains optimistic about future growth due to potential interest rate cuts and tax reductions [9] - The Federal Reserve is facing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with the possibility of a deadlock in the upcoming meeting [9]

Market Overview - US stock futures rose as investors anticipate a market turnaround in the Thanksgiving trading week, following a recent pullback in AI-driven stocks [1] - Major indexes have experienced notable losses in November, with the S&P 500 down 3.5% month-to-date and the Nasdaq Composite down 6.1% [2][3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York president suggested a potential rate cut in December, contributing to Friday's market rebound [2] - Upcoming economic data releases include producer prices and retail sales for September, which are expected to provide insights into the economic landscape [4] Earnings Reports - The earnings season continues with key releases from companies such as Alibaba Holdings, Dell Technologies, and retailers like Kohl's and Best Buy during the holiday-shortened week [5]