宏观周报 特朗普再掀关税攻势，A 股指数创年内新高 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面， 7月关税豁免日到期后，特朗普对多国大幅升 级关税，宣布自8月1日起对包括日本、韩国、马来西亚、 南非、老挝、缅甸在内的多国商品征收25%至40%不等的 关税；对巴西商品征收50%；对加拿大商品税率上调至 35%；对欧盟及墨西哥统一征收30%。此外，对铜进口征 收50%，对进口药品征收200%关税（2027年起执行），并 提议对等关税基准从10%上调至15–20%。整体关税策略 呈现"密集部署+延迟生效"模式，意在强化谈判筹码与 产业回流预期，目前已引发多国反制酝酿。关税扰动整体 有限，降息预期升温与风险偏好抬升主导市场，美股续创 高位，美元指数震荡回升，黄金小幅走强。本周关注美国 6月CPI及零售数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2025 年 7 月 14 日 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 ...

事实上，在今年5月的财报说明会上，日产新任CEO伊万·埃斯皮诺萨曾被问及通过生产本田车型来活用美 国工厂的问题，他当时表示："正在探讨在美国市场开展合作的可能性。"《日刊汽车新闻》指出，若合作达 成，预计将为两家公司带来一定益处，处于经营重组中的日产需要提高工厂的开工率，而本田也能完善自身的 车型产品线。目前，本田在北美销售皮卡Ridgeline，如果能获得日产的代工，本田有望满足当地更广泛的需 求。 值得一提的是，此前在2024年12月下旬，日产与本田宣布签署谅解备忘录，启动经营合并谈判。不过，谈 判最终于今年2月破裂，但双方仍表示将继续在电动汽车等领域保持合作。尤其是在美国加征进口汽车关税的背 景下，日本车企需要努力增加在美国本土的产量，以尽量减少关税带来的影响。 近日，NHK、《日本经济新闻》、路透社等多家外媒报道称，日产与本田已开启谈判，探讨在美国利 用日产工厂的剩余产能为本田代工生产皮卡的可能性。 对此，日产发表声明称，公司正继续与本田合作，但没有其他进一步的消息，也不会对猜测发表评论。本 田方面则没有立即置评。 或联手应对关税 据知情人士透露，日产与本田正在探讨，利用日产在美产能利用率较低的工厂为 ...

2025年07月14日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | 1、央行公告称，7月11日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了847亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量847亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量847亿元。Wind数据显示，当日340亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放507亿元。本周央行公开市场 | | | 将有4257亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一至本周五分别到期 1065亿元、690亿元、755亿元、900亿元、847亿元。此外， | | | 本周二（7月15日）还将有1000亿元MLF到期。上周央行公开市场共开展了4257亿元逆回购操作，上周央行公开市场净 | | | 回笼2265亿元。 | | | 2、外交部长王毅在吉隆坡会见美国国务卿鲁比奥 。双方就中美关系以及共同关心的问题交换了意见 。双方一致认为 | | | 会晤是积极、务实、建设性的，同意加强外交渠道及各领域各层级沟通对话 ，发挥外交部门在推动两国关系中的作 | | | 用，在管控分歧的同时，探索扩大合作领域。 | | | 3、财政部发布《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通知 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading in the shipping market is challenging. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all remaining trading partners, targeting Southeast Asian countries to crack down on re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1st, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The spot market price range is set, with small price hikes to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [2][4]. - The cease - fire in Gaza cannot be reached immediately, and the Houthi rebels continue to attack Israeli - related ships. Spot freight rates are stable, and the market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing the market to fluctuate widely [2]. - On July 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.6, down 0.71%, with a trading volume of 34,600 lots and an open interest of 30,900 lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [2]. Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected value of 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected value of 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected value of 52.1, a two - month low [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market is likely to rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the market rallies today. For the EC2512 contract, a light short position is recommended above 1650, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international instability, the market shows a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light - position attempt [3]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, take profit when the price rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3].

宏观 市场分析：IEA 上调 2025 年全球石油供应增长预期至 210 万桶/日。同时 OPEC+7 月会议或 将加大增产力度，因此原油价格处于相对弱势，反弹高度有限，整体中长期价格重心下移。 但基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，一定程度上托底油价，密切关注大美法案对美国经济 的影响。关注后续中东局势发展、大美法案、美国传统旺季夏季需求，美元指数走势以及 OPEC+7 月会议情况。 参考观点：WTI 主力关注背靠 65 美元/桶附近开启反弹。 黄金 宏观与地缘：美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储可以考虑 7 月进行降息，应考虑将联储持有资产 更多地转向短期国债；美联储戴利表示，今年很可能降息两次，政策前景存在很大的不确定 性。地缘上，中东局势紧张推升避险需求；货币政策上，市场押注 9 月降息概率达 65.4%， 但 7 月按兵不动预期仍占 92.8%，多空因素交织令金价短期承压。美国财政赤字和特朗普关 税威胁加剧通胀担忧，贵金属价格震荡运行。 宏观：国内政策端聚焦中游制造和反内卷措施，中央财经委会议聚焦"治理低价无序竞争"， 光伏、新能源汽车等行业供给侧改革预期升温，龙头股估值修复。特朗普宣布关税延至 8 月 1 日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that although there are disruptions in the production or transportation of multiple copper mines overseas, due to the Trump administration's imposition of high - tariff policies on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional consumption off - season in the domestic market, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,430, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, a decrease of 17,565 lots; the open interest was 178,682 lots, a decrease of 2,386 lots; the inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 23,307 tons, an increase of 1,578 tons [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 11, 2025 was 9,663, a decrease of 19 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 108,725 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on July 11, 2025 was 5.584, an increase of 0.04 compared to the previous day; the total inventory increased by 10,797 tons [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Macro**: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion and $560 billion by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the scale of weekly Treasury bond auctions. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not led to a significant rebound in consumer - end inflation. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with the expected time for rate cuts being September or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Wildfires in northern Manitoba, Canada, have caused Hudbay Minerals to suspend operations at its Snow Lake mine. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates has increased compared to last week. The export volume of Australian copper concentrates has decreased. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the domestic scrap copper production or import volume in July is expected to decrease, with a tight supply - demand outlook. Some copper smelters have suspended production, while others are under construction or have new production capacity coming online. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and the total inventory of electrolytic copper in China have increased compared to last week, as has the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper [2]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods used in East China's power and cable industries has decreased compared to last week. Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The operating rates of some copper - related industries have changed, with the operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, and copper plate and strip increasing, while those of steel pipes and brass rods decreasing. The domestic steel enterprises' production capacity, production volume, and import volume in July are expected to decline [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,600 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.58 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,900 - 10,200 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [2].

2025年07月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：现货走弱，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：中期偏空 | 6 | | 铅：旺季预期支撑 | 7 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 8 | | 铝：库存过低，虚实比较高 | 10 | | 氧化铝：关注累库幅度 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，全球精炼镍边际累库 | 12 | | 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...

2025.07.14-07.18 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于横盘震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第27周油厂大豆实际压榨量233.22万吨，开机率为 65.56%；豆粕库存82.24万吨，较上周增加13.08万吨，增幅18.91%。当 前国内油厂维持高开机率，大豆压榨量高位运行，但下游需求表现乏力， 导致豆粕库存持续累积。同时，美豆产区天气良好进一步强化市场供应 宽松的预期。然而巴西升贴水持续走强，叠加美豆触及1000美分关键价 位提供支撑。此外，美国贸易关税政策的不确定性引发市场对四季度大 豆供应的担忧。综合来看，豆粕期货延续震荡运行。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 | く 豆粕(m) v | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 多空流向: - 95.5 ~ 主力强烈偏空 | | 资金能量： -62.3 ■ ■ 资金流出幅度较大 | | 多空分 ...

那么，日本真的能做到吗？ 近日，日本与美国的贸易问题几乎影响到了美日两国的关系，日本对美国现在有种"我拿你当亲哥，你 拿我当表弟"的感觉。 在关税问题上，特朗普一点也不给日本这个盟友面子，对日本加关税后，就等着日本率先低头。 日本首相石破茂在外交事务上本就谨慎，现在涉及到了日本的利益，他也干脆不藏着掖着了，直接对美 宣布，要让日本在一些领域上脱离对美国的依赖。 日本这次选择和美国硬刚，也是明确了一点，日本要摊牌了，不愿意受屈辱了。 关税大棒下的屈辱 特朗普这次对日本下手确实有些突然，因为日本虽然在贸易上让美国无法满意，但是态度上还是很愿意 讨好美国的。美国4月份下达所谓的"关税政策"后，日本低头最早，也是最想和美国完成谈判的。 但是特朗普这次显然抛开了与日本的盟友关系，只谈利益。特朗普非常明白，别看日本这个国家不大， 但产生的经济的能力是非常强的，若想继续干预日本，那么就要抓住日本一点利益。 不过，美国这次显然有些失算了，石破茂这个首相，并不像前几任日本首相那样，无条件的倒向美国。 石破茂明白，若这次在关税上对美国妥协，那么以后美国可能还会要更多的利益。7月9日，石破茂一句 话把现在美日之间的问题总结了下来。 ...

日本央行计划在7月31日政策会议上考虑上调通胀预测，以反映食品和能源价格上涨。 媒体报道称，央行官员可能将当前财年通胀预测从2.2%上调，主要因为大米等食品价格涨幅超出上一份季度展望报告时的预期。 受此消息影响，日本20年期国债收益率当日上涨6个基点至2.56%。 关税影响暂不纳入考量 知情人士表示，央行将通过筛选所有可获得的数据和信息来最终确定展望。在制定预测时，央行不会考虑特朗普上周宣布的25%全面关税的影 响，因为贸易谈判仍在进行中，关税水平可能发生变化。 央行认为需要在实际数据中观察关税政策的具体影响，这将成为未来货币政策决策的重要参考因素。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂、韩国总统李在明的信件，宣布美国将自2025年8 月1日起对所有日本和韩国输美产品征收25%的关税。 日本首相石破茂8日表示，对美方宣布增税感到"遗憾"，目前双方尚未达成协议，是因为 日本没有轻易让步。 食品价格推高通胀预期 据知情人士表示，大米价格是推动央行考虑上调通胀预测的主要因素。截至5月份，大米价格在过去一年中翻了一番，已成为重要的政治议题。此 外，中东地缘政治紧张局势 ...