据CCTV国际时讯，受地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格1月11日上 涨，2月黄金期货价格一度突破每盎司4600美元，白银期价一度也在每盎司84美元高位附近波动，均创 历史新高。市场分析认为，作为重要避险资产，国际金价上涨受到地缘政治形势影响。观察人士认为， 美国政府强权行径将加速各国"去美元化"，对国际金价形成较强支撑。与此同时，由于白银市场供应持 续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。分析显示，当前白银供应短缺很难在短期内得到缓解。在这种环境下，市 场预期白银价格将继续保持上涨势头。 ...

美国降息预期升温叠加地缘风险加剧等因素推动下，1月12日国际贵金属价格大涨，金银价格盘中均刷新 历史高点。 外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合 约盘中涨逾6%，最高触及84.57美元/盎司。 卓创资讯贵金属分析师黄加奇也分析，本次行情上涨的驱动力主要来自两方面。一方面，特朗普就降息 力度问题再度向美联储现任主席鲍威尔施压，且财长贝森特预计，特朗普将在1月19日—23日举行的达沃 斯论坛前后就下任美联储主席人选做出决定，此外12月非农数据不及预期，交易者对后续降息路径偏鸽 定价。 另一方面，地缘碎片化影响持续发酵，伊朗近期因物价上涨，社会不稳定因素上升，美国考虑干涉伊朗 方案，而同时美国与丹麦、委内瑞拉之间就关键资源和领土问题存有争端，特朗普对国际法的表态也使 得地缘局势前景不确定性上升，市场避险需求支撑贵金属溢价。 黄加奇认为，目前黄金、白银均位于历史高位，且短期急涨幅度较大，技术形态上方阻力有所加大，且 短期需要关注彭博大宗商品指数再平衡对贵金属的权重削减和芝商所上调黄金、白银保证金比例可能造 成的利空影响。但长期来看，美联储降息周期尚 ...

欧元区通胀放缓，进一步降息预期不强，欧美利差预期收缩。 特朗普总统发动对委内瑞拉大规模军事行动、重启格陵兰岛获取计划、提高美国2027财年军费等，带来 地缘局势紧张，冲击西方阵营内部团结，短期避险情绪推高美元，中期则加速去美元化。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月12日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1026.28 | 2.57% | 238327 | 116450 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月12日上海黄金现货价格报价1023.32元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1026.28元/克）贴水 2.96元/克。 美国制造业前景疲软依旧，订单不足，就业继续萎缩，但服务业超预期扩张，国内外订单大增，就业重 新扩张；就业人数弱增长，岗位空缺数下降，失业者重返劳动力市场难度较大，但失业率意外下降，形 成数据上的背离，降息预期不增反减；美国财长贝森特希望降低利率，表示利率是驱动未来经济增长的 关键因素。 因此短期来看美联储降息预期不强、美国经济增长向好、欧美关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4600 per ounce, is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, a crisis of trust in the Federal Reserve, and a weakening dollar, leading to increased global risk aversion [2][3][4] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The U.S. Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reignited concerns over political interference in the Fed's independence, contributing to a decline in the dollar index and U.S. stock futures, which in turn supports higher gold and silver prices [3] - Ongoing U.S. military interventions, particularly in Venezuela, have heightened geopolitical risks, further bolstering market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][4] - The accumulation of fiscal risks in the U.S., with national debt nearing $40 trillion and a fiscal deficit rate of 6.8%, has diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, making gold a preferred choice for both institutions and retail investors [3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic asset, with expectations of net purchases exceeding 1000 tons by 2025, reflecting a shift towards "de-dollarization" [4] - The strategic accumulation of gold by central banks is expected to continue, with UBS predicting purchases to rise to 950 tons in 2026, indicating a long-term trend in gold's role as a stabilizing asset on national balance sheets [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Ordinary investors are experiencing a divide in sentiment regarding gold prices, with a surge in gold account openings alongside reports of individuals facing losses from recent price fluctuations [6][7] - Investment strategies vary, with recommendations for those looking to "chase" gold to use idle funds and adopt a phased buying approach, while those opting to "wait" should set specific price triggers for entry [7] - For those considering "withdrawal," it is advised to lock in profits or exit if gold is misperceived as a short-term speculative tool [7] Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The current gold price level serves as a reflection of individual attitudes towards risk and uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of a clear investment framework rather than merely speculating on price peaks [8] - Investors are encouraged to focus on building resilient portfolios that can withstand market volatility, rather than seeking quick gains, highlighting the significance of long-term holding strategies [8]

受地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格1月11日创历史新高，一度突破每盎司4612美元。12日早盘，现货黄金强势拉涨，盘中首 次突破4600美元，再创新高。截至发稿有所回落，报4581.547美元/盎司。 | | | 受国际金价带动，国内黄金饰品价格也普遍上涨，多个品牌足金报价突破1400元/克。其中，周生生、老庙报价1429元/克，周大福、周大生报价1426元/ 克，六福珠宝报价1424元/克，较昨日普遍上涨了20元/克。 | 实物黄金 单位元/克 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 間大福 | 周六播 間六福 | 賞生 周生生 | | 1426.00 | 1411.00 | 1429.00 | | 金条价格 1251.00 | 金条价格 1306.00 | 金条价格 1254.00 | | 間大生 | (m 潮宏基 | 六福珠宝 | | 1426.00 | 1426.00 | 1424.00 | | 铂金价格 933.00 | 铂金价格 933.00 | 金条价格 1249.00 | | 一系同学 | 老闆量分 | 中国商等 | | 1428.00 | 1429.00 ...

美联储独立性危机仍在发酵。美国司法部正对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，重点审查美联储总部的 翻修工程的相关问题。这或是特朗普对鲍威尔施压的又一举措，此前特朗普多次要求鲍威尔大幅降低利 率，并以解雇作为威胁。国会授予美联储独立制定利率的权力，旨在使其免受政治干预，专注于低通胀 和劳动力市场健康。然而特朗普的频频干预导致美联储独立性受损，或损害美元信用。此外特朗普上周 表示，他已选定接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的人选，预计很快会公布决定。 中国央行连续第14个月购金。从2024年11月至2025年12月，每月保持稳定增持节奏。1月7日，央行公布 数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，较11月末的7412万盎司增加3万盎司，为 连续第14个月增持黄金，体现美元信用体系瓦解背景下，各国央行分散外汇储备、买黄金卖美债的趋势 或延续。 近期全球地缘冲突频发，避险资金或涌向黄金。委内瑞拉事件仍在发酵，此外美国还在考虑攻击伊朗的 多种方案，以及尝试吞并格陵兰岛。国际局势变数仍存，全球传统秩序趋于崩溃，避险情绪或利好黄 金。 Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价强势上涨。伦敦现货黄金收于4，509美元/ ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 潘海福 | | | 受国际金价带动，国内黄金饰品价格也普遍上涨，多个品牌足金报价突破1400元/克。其中，周生生、老庙报价1429元/克，周大福、周大生报价1426元/ 克，六福珠宝报价1424元/克，较昨日普遍上涨了20元/克。 | 实物黄金 单位元/克 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 間大福 | 周六格 間六福 | 間生生 周生生 | | 1426.00 | 1411.00 | 1429.00 | | 金条价格 1251.00 | 金条价格 1306.00 | 金条价格 1254.00 | | 周大芝 間大生 | (ml 潮宗基 | 六福珠宝 | | 1426.00 | 1426.00 | 1424.00 | | 铂金价格 933.00 | 铂金价格 933.00 | 金条价格 1249.00 | | 一家花 | 我用直令 | 中国商会 | | 1428.00 | 1429.00 | 1023.60 | | 足金价格 1428.00 | 金条价格 1384.00 | 零售价 1039.60 | 此外，伦敦现货白银站上84美元/盎司，涨幅超5.5%，突破两周前高点， ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant fluctuations in the international commodity market have led to a synchronized increase in oil and precious metal prices, driven by geopolitical risks, expectations of a weaker dollar, and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [1][3][4] Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has raised concerns about the stability of global energy supply chains, prompting investors to reassess the uncertainty surrounding oil supply and triggering a rebound in oil prices [3] - The changing global security environment has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold and silver becoming preferred choices for investors [3] Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index, exacerbated by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following investigations into its chairman, has provided support for dollar-denominated oil and precious metal prices [3] - Historical data indicates a significant negative correlation between the dollar and commodities, with a weaker dollar reducing holding costs and attracting global capital to increase positions in commodities [3] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Structural adjustments in supply-demand dynamics are reinforcing the upward trend in prices, with OPEC+ deciding to maintain production cuts until early 2026, alleviating concerns about oversupply in the oil market [4] - In the precious metals market, continued purchases by global central banks, with a reported net purchase of 45 tons in November 2025, have bolstered demand, contributing to a solid foundation for rising gold and silver prices [4] Differentiated Price Drivers - The logic behind price increases varies between commodities, with oil prices primarily driven by short-term geopolitical risks, while gold and silver are more influenced by concerns over monetary credibility and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process [4] - Fund flows indicate this differentiation, with the oil market seeing short-term speculative inflows, while the precious metals market is characterized by a combined increase in holdings from both institutions and retail investors, evidenced by significant growth in gold ETF and physical gold bar sales [4]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, with developed economies at 1.6% and emerging markets at 4.2% [1] - The year 2025 is expected to showcase several sectors that significantly exceed market expectations [1] Capital Market Dynamics - The evolution of global capital markets in 2025 is influenced by three core drivers: a shift in monetary policy towards interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical tensions, and asset revaluation and reallocation [3] - Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are anticipated to reach $4.5 trillion in 2025, a nearly 50% increase from 2024, marking the second-highest level on record [4] - The M&A landscape will focus on strategically driven "super deals," with 68 transactions exceeding $10 billion, including significant deals in the streaming and railway sectors [4] International Trade Trends - Despite facing challenges from U.S. unilateral tariff policies and trade protectionism, global trade is expected to grow by approximately 7% in 2025, reaching a record $35 trillion [6] - The global value chain trade remains robust, accounting for about 46% of global trade, with a shift towards resilience, sustainability, and inclusivity [6] Future Economic Drivers - Artificial Intelligence (AI) and green transition are projected to shape global economic growth trajectories in 2026, with AI expected to contribute trillions to global GDP [10] - The green industry is transitioning from policy-driven to market-driven, with significant investments anticipated in clean energy and green technologies [10] Risks and Uncertainties - The global economy faces numerous risks, including trade policies and geopolitical tensions, which could disrupt recovery processes [11] - High levels of debt in various countries, particularly in the U.S., may constrain fiscal policy and impact market confidence in dollar assets [11]

1月12日盘中，沪金期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1031.30元。截止发稿，沪金主力合约 报1025.26元，涨幅2.47%。 国投安信期货：贵金属继续挑战前高阻力 沪金期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 周五美国非农新增就业5万人低于预期，但失业率从11月的4.5%降至4.4%，市场对于美联储本月将维持 利率不变基本达成共识。开年全球地缘乱局延续，委内瑞拉之后伊朗局势再度紧张，媒体报道特朗普已 听取了有关对伊朗实施军事打击的简报。贵金属继续挑战前高阻力，考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下 降后寻找再入场机会。 机构 核心观点 华联期货 黄金的中长期利好因素仍在 新世纪期货 地缘政治风险激发市场避险需求，支撑金价上涨 国投安信期货 贵金属继续挑战前高阻力 华联期货：黄金的中长期利好因素仍在 美联储理事表示，他希望2026年美联储累计降息150个基点，以支持劳动力市场修复，支持黄金上涨。 12月就业率回升，降息预期下降，而贵金属强势震荡，后续关注美联储降息预期变化。从12月美联储议 息会议看，对经济、失业率和通胀预测来看，2026年降息二次的概率增大，因此属于鸽派降息，利好黄 金； ...