2025 年上半年，全球经济航船在贸易摩擦加剧与政策不确定性升腾的漩涡中艰难前行。 世界银行最新数据显示，全球近七成经济体遭遇增长预期下调，整体经济增速已滑落至 2.3% ，创下 2008 年金融危机以来的最低纪录。 相比之下，中国经济在政策有力护航下展现出相对韧性，全年增长预期锚定 5% ，然而内需修 复的持续性、地产风险的化解进程以及全球产业链重构带来的压力，仍构成复杂挑战。 主要经济体增长普遍乏力：美国受制于高利率与关税冲击，增速放缓至 1.4% ；欧元区与日本 表现更为疲弱，双双仅录得 0.7% 的微弱增长；新兴市场的增长势头亦显著减弱。 阴霾之中，新质生产力正孕育着变革的曙光。 人工智能（ AI ）应用迎来大规模落地的元年，深刻重塑产业图景；绿色能源转型加速推进； 中国新能源汽车出口更是异军突起，同比激增 70% 。 与此同时，在全球 " 去美元化 " 浪潮涌动之下，中国资产的价值重估机遇悄然显现。 值此百年未有之大变局下，面对机遇与风险并存的复杂棋局，投资者该如何调整舵轮，优化策 略，才能行稳致远呢？ 2025 年 7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇·中期策略峰会· 2 025 将再度于深圳启幕。 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's medium - to long - term bullish logic remains intact. The global trend of de - dollarization drives continuous central bank gold - buying demand. The US twin deficits and economic downward pressure may prompt the Fed to turn to a loose monetary policy. If the tariff policy persists and increases inflation resilience, gold's anti - inflation appeal will strengthen. If the expectation of interest rate cuts becomes clearer, silver's industrial attributes and relative valuation advantages may boost the silver price, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline further. The report suggests paying attention to the range of 767 - 780 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract and 8630 - 8800 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 771.86 yuan/gram, down 9.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8739 yuan/kilogram, down 31 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 147343 lots, down 5119 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 341851 lots, down 6481 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 139204 lots, down 2488 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 113611 lots, up 5838 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 0 kilograms, down 18168 kilograms; that of silver is 0 kilograms, down 1247103 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 776 yuan/gram, down 3.8 yuan; the silver spot price is 8708 yuan/kilogram, up 1 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 4.14 yuan/gram, up 5.64 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 31 yuan/kilogram, up 32 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.4 tons, up 7.16 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14950.99 tons, up 200.71 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 200648 contracts, up 13167 contracts; those of silver are 67174 contracts, up 524 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 15.76%, down 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.67%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 24.01%, down 2.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24%, down 2.24% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Trump announced an Iran - Israel cease - fire, but Iran denied it. The Fed's independence is interfered by Trump, and geopolitical risks intensify, putting pressure on Germany and Italy to repatriate over $245 billion in gold reserves. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman may support a rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee said that if the impact of trade policies disappears, the Fed should continue to cut rates. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 15.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 30%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 10% [2]

智通财经APP获悉，全球各大央行所管理的数万亿美元储备资产的管理者们正考虑将资金从美元转向黄 金、欧元以及人民币。由于世界贸易的分裂以及地缘政治的动荡促使人们重新审视资金流动方式，这一 趋势正在形成。 据国际货币与金融机构论坛(OMFIF)将于周二晚些时候发布的报告称，管理着总计 5 万亿美元资产的三 分之一的央行计划在未来一到两年内增加对黄金的投资，剔除那些计划减少投资的央行后，这一比例达 到了至少五年来的最高水平。 这项针对 75 家央行的调查(于 3 月至 5 月期间进行)首次揭示了美国总统特朗普 4 月 2 日"解放日"关税 政策所带来的影响，该政策引发了市场动荡，并导致避险货币美元和美国国债价格下跌。 全球央行此前一直在以创纪录的速度增持黄金，而此次调查显示，黄金在未来更长时期内还将进一步受 益，有 40%的央行计划在未来十年内增加黄金持有量。 OMFIF表示："在经历了多年的创纪录央行黄金购买量之后，储备管理者们正在加大对这种贵金属的投 入力度。" OMFIF 称，去年在调查中最受欢迎的美元今年已跌至第七位；70%的受访者表示，美国的政治环境让 他们对投资美元感到犹豫，这一比例是去年的两倍多。在货 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global gold market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy dynamics, with New York gold futures at $3379.9 per ounce and London spot gold at $3366.63 per ounce as of June 24, 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.17% [1] - Global gold investment demand surged by 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with gold ETF net inflows reaching a record high of 226.5 tons, while central banks continued to increase their gold holdings for the 16th consecutive year [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - High trading costs are prevalent, with traditional platforms employing complex fee structures that can increase spreads by 1.5 times during volatile periods, eroding profits [3] - Liquidity issues are evident, with lengthy withdrawal processes averaging 2-3 days and slippage rates exceeding 1% on some platforms, causing missed opportunities during extreme market conditions [3] - Insufficient data transparency poses risks, including false quotes and untraceable trading records, leading to significant investor losses due to fraudulent platforms [3] Group 3: Company Solutions - Kingstone Precious Metals leverages a century-old regulatory framework and technological innovation to create a "safe, efficient, and transparent" trading ecosystem, addressing industry pain points [4] - The company adheres strictly to regulatory requirements, ensuring transaction traceability and operational transparency, with client funds held in licensed banks and rapid withdrawal processing [4] - Technological enhancements include integration with MT4 and MT5 platforms for rapid order execution, a unique "spread compensation plan" that reduces spreads to as low as $0.15 per ounce, and a zero-commission policy that can save high-frequency traders 30% on costs [5][6] Group 4: Service Offerings - Kingstone Precious Metals provides differentiated services for various investor levels, including simulated accounts for beginners, quick order placement and alerts for short-term traders, and a stable trading environment for long-term investors [7] - The platform's dynamic margin system helps users lock in arbitrage opportunities during market fluctuations, enhancing the trading experience [7] - The company's low fee structure and flexible contract designs make it an ideal choice for long-term asset allocation, capitalizing on trends such as central bank gold purchases and "de-dollarization" [7] Group 5: Conclusion - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, characterized by short-term pressures and long-term potential, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy [8] - Kingstone Precious Metals transforms industry challenges into functional solutions, providing a reliable channel for investors to navigate market volatility and achieve asset appreciation [8]

招商银行研究院将分章节为您推送《 逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望 》 本篇为文章第二、三部分， 海外宏观：韧性依旧，隐忧尚存；海外策略：中短美债占优，美股均衡配置。 更多精彩之后将陆续推送，敬请期待。 ■ 关税变局不断演变，我国经济挑战与机遇并存。 外需支撑或显著减退，内需能否稳固支撑是决定经济 动能变化的关键。基准情形下，预计全年实际GDP增长5%，GDP平减指数或下探至-1%。在供给端，企业 生产和利润温和承压。在需求端，出口增速显著放缓，消费对经济增长的贡献或有增强，房地产投资的拖 累或因体量收缩而边际减弱，基建投资维持高位，制造业投资温和放缓。经济运行或继续呈现供强需弱格 局，价格修复相应承压。 ■ 看境外市场， 去美元化逻辑或继续演绎，美股有望震荡上行，美债利率中枢维持高位，黄金 强者恒强，外汇市场或延续"美元弱，非美强"格局。 相关报告 《逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望①》 正文 海外宏观：韧性依旧，隐忧尚存 上半年，特朗普政府"削减政府开支+对等关税"组合拳扰动预期，市场一度担忧美国经济陷入衰退甚至滞胀， 美联储将于年内降息5次（125bp）。随着财政政策重回 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is undergoing profound structural changes, characterized by weak growth momentum, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and a dilemma of high inflation, high interest rates, high debt, and low growth [2] - Private entrepreneurs' ability to accurately assess the economic situation and grasp development trends will directly determine the scientific and feasible nature of corporate strategy formulation [3][4] - Many enterprises are still stuck in traditional development models, incurring high trial-and-error costs [3] Group 2 - The current global economic situation is viewed as the early stage of a Great Depression, which is a core manifestation of a century-long change [5] - The Great Depression is not a natural phenomenon but a forced correction due to long-term deviations from objective economic laws [5] - The evolution of this crisis is expected to present three stages: "value return period" (2023-2025), "structural adjustment period" (2026-2028), and "order reconstruction period" (2029-2031) [6] Group 3 - The current economic crisis is marked by a deep restructuring of the post-World War II international economic and political order [8] - The dollar is entering a historical "value return" process, with its share in international settlements dropping from 73% in 2001 to 47% today [9] - The new colonialism is in a "structural adjustment" decline cycle, with a significant shift towards decolonization movements led by countries like those in BRICS [10][11] Group 4 - The decoupling of the US and Chinese economies has initiated a new era of de-globalization, fundamentally altering the global economic landscape [12][13] - The current economic crisis is compounded by a technological revolution, with the fifth and sixth industrial revolutions reshaping industries and accelerating the pace of corporate evolution [14][15] Group 5 - The economic crisis is characterized by a "crisis transfer" mechanism, where developed countries are shifting internal crises externally through monetary, industrial, financial, and geopolitical dimensions [17][18] - The domestic economy is expected to face profound impacts, including a debt crisis for local governments and state-owned enterprises, leading to a series of chain reactions [19][20] Group 6 - A wave of bankruptcies and restructurings among private enterprises is anticipated, as the old growth model based on demographic, resource, reform, and industrial chain dividends is nearing exhaustion [21][22] - The A-share market is undergoing a significant valuation system reconstruction, with traditional fundraising models becoming increasingly unsustainable [22][23] Group 7 - The current economic downturn is expected to exacerbate social tensions, with rising litigation and social unrest due to economic pressures [24] - The crisis is likely to lead to a significant increase in the number of corporate bankruptcies, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises [24] Group 8 - To effectively respond to the economic crisis, a systematic crisis response mechanism is needed, focusing on local government debt resolution, financial system restructuring, and enterprise transformation [28][29] - Enterprises should adopt a digital asset strategy, enhance governance, and prepare for mixed ownership reforms to ensure adaptability and resilience [32][34]

新华财经北京6月24日电（马萌伟）今年以来，受美国关税政策和经济前景不确定性的拖累，全球投资 者正逐步降低美元资产配置，美元指数几乎呈现"自由落体式"下跌，今年已累计下跌约9.4%，或创下 1986年以来最差上半年表现。 有分析显示，美元下跌既非短期投机行为，也非周期性调整，美元真正的复苏可能还需数年时间。 降息预期增强美元再次走低 美银外汇策略团队指出，欧洲养老金、保险公司等机构是二季度美元暴跌的主推手，数周内将美元持仓 砍至2022年以来最低。但也研究显示，过去数月美元日均跌幅主要出现在亚洲交易时段，暗示亚洲美债 持有者可能也在加速对冲。 美元是否已超跌？ 鉴于外汇市场常有过度反应特性，当前美元是否已超跌、即将迎来技术性回调，确实值得商榷。就短期 而言，目前外汇市场正陷入两股力量的拉锯战——一方面美联储可能释放鸽派信号，另一方面中东冲突 推高油价，导致美元交易者陷入方向性分歧。 从长期来讲，真正值得关注的是资产管理机构的美元低配程度。美银调查显示，机构对美元资产的规避 已达20年峰值，这既源于对美国当前贸易政策、地缘立场及制度完整性的担忧，也反映美元结构性走弱 的大趋势。 知名财经博客网站Zerohedg ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a dramatic reversal on Monday, initially driven by geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil prices soaring by 6% before collapsing by 7% as the situation stabilized [1][2] - The easing of geopolitical risks led to a shift in focus towards macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes, as market participants anticipated a possible interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The dollar faced significant pressure, marking its worst first half since 1986, as investors adjusted their positions and reduced exposure to the currency [4][6] Group 2 - The shift in market sentiment indicates a potential transition in the macroeconomic landscape, with the possibility of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve becoming apparent [3][8] - The ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market reflect a systematic move towards de-dollarization, particularly in Asia, where U.S. bondholders are actively re-hedging their positions [6][7] - The current market dynamics suggest a focus on momentum trading, with investors chasing favorable capital flows while underlying macroeconomic changes are brewing [8][9]

近年来，美国对华政策越来越走向极端。 从特朗普政府大张旗鼓地发起"贸易战"，到疫情期间美国不断指责中国，再到拜登政府加大对华制裁力度，美国将中国视作"威胁"的言论变得越来越直白、 公开。特别是在一些美国政客眼中，宣扬"中国威胁论"，甚至成为"反华先锋"，似乎是为自己政治生涯获取关注和话语权的捷径。为了迎合这一政治需要， 某些政客频频发表无视事实、充满荒谬的言论。 近日，美国总统竞选人妮基·黑莉更是公开表示，若中国停止购买美国国债，她将在当选总统后对中国采取报复和打击措施。言辞如此激烈，简直让人难以 置信！ 黑莉的言论就像是强买强卖的典型强盗逻辑，简直让人忍不住发笑。自她宣布参选2024年美国总统以来，这位印度裔女性候选人凭借自己独特的身份和一系 列极端的言辞吸引了不少眼球。虽然她的言论引发了热议，但她并非真正的总统热门人选——不仅在民主党阵营中有众多有力的竞争对手，在共和党内部， 民调也显示她的支持率远远落后于特朗普和德桑蒂斯。 正因如此，黑莉才急于通过攻击中国来吸引选民眼球、拉拢支持。她这种做法，实在是荒唐可笑。而这也恰恰暴露了美国经济背后的隐患——美国经济正在 深陷困境，需要一位真正有能力的人来应对这一局 ...