Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows a volatile trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. - Due to the news of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines are trying to raise the freight rates on the European route in June. The 6 - month - end quotes from major companies indicate a willingness to increase prices [9]. - Some macro data this week show that the rush - shipping on the US route is less than expected. The change in the long - position logic of the main contract leads to a significant decline in the main - contract price, with the 6 - 8 spread and monthly spread narrowing. The price fluctuates under the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.92%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also changed significantly [5]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their current values, previous values, and changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1834.8, up 1.48% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions of different EC contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) and their changes are provided. For instance, the EC2506 position is currently 11037, down 1679 from the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads (e.g., 10 - 12, 12 - 2) are given. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 728.9, down 9.7 from the previous value [5]. 3.2 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the US plans more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **US - EU Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Court Decision**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed since Trump's second term, except for those on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [7]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines are trying to raise European - route freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an upward trend [9]. - **Futures Market**: The main - contract price shows a volatile downward trend due to the change in the long - position logic and the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9].

这么一来，顶多算是回到了一个新的起跑线，离什么里程碑还远着呢，更逗的是，五天后，5月15号，中美贸易代表又跑韩国首尔亚太经合组织会议上碰头 了，具体聊了啥，外面人还是两眼一抹黑。 那边厢，美国财长贝森特倒是透了点风，他说未来几周，中美还得接着谈，目标是搞个"更完整的协议"，这话听着挺美，可他立马又补了一刀，说美国对中 国的关税想降到传说中的10%，"不太可能"。 关于特朗普要降低对华关税的消息，这几天可谓是接踵而至，但我们这边的态度依旧很明确，对华关税不归零，中国是不可能给美国机会的。 日内瓦那场经贸会谈一结束，市场上确实小小地欢呼了一阵，双方都说要降关税，听着像那么回事儿，按5月12号的说法，中国取消了之前针对美国加税的 部分反制，名义上，大家又回到了4月2号那会儿的关税水平，这纸声明，一度被吹成了重大利好。 可仔细咂摸咂摸，这"进展"味道就有点怪了，有人说得挺实在，那些取消的关税，本来就是贸易摩擦升级后的产物，压根儿就不该有。 还有20%的所谓"芬太尼税"。 这笔税是在特朗普时期额外加征的，中方一直认为这是毫无道理的，此次联合声明中，美方对"芬太尼税"只字未提，仅仅取消了4月2号之后新增的关税，显 然是想 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

一、鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震，美联储内部释放降息分歧 三、风险提示 美联储主席鲍威尔在6月3日凌晨的讲话中虽未直接提及利率政策，但市场从其"保持沉默"的姿态中解读出强烈的政策转向信号。鲍威尔在美联储国际金融司 成立75周年活动上，重点回顾了该部门在历史危机中的作用，强调"货币政策需保持灵活性以应对全球不确定性"。这一表态被市场视为对特朗普政府激进关 税政策的隐晦回应，叠加美联储官员近期密集释放降息信号，美元指数周一暴跌0.75%至98.60，创下4月22日以来新低。 | 美元指数 | | | | | | Ø 已添加 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $ | FX DINIW 國外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | | | | 98.814000 +0.2310 +0.2300% | | | | | | | | 交易中 06-03 15:46 北京时间 | | | | | | | | 行情 | | | | | | | | रेनी 98.5880 最高 | | | | 98.9390 | 买入价 | 98.8040 | | 昨日收 | | 9 ...

2025年06月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：印度降税或刺激采购，观察情绪反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦担忧、美豆偏弱，连粕或震荡 | 5 | | 豆一：震荡 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 白糖：震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 棉花：上涨动能不足 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：节后淘汰或进一步加速 | 12 | | 生猪：去库启动，远端预期转强 | 13 | | 花生：关注现货 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 棕榈油：印度降税或刺激采购，观察情绪反复 豆油：豆系驱动不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,060 | -1.59% | | | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,638 | -1.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the U.S. pressure tactics on China, particularly through trade negotiations and technology restrictions, are unlikely to succeed against a strong nation like China [1][2][6]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Strategy - The U.S. government is attempting to exert extreme pressure on China through new technology control measures, aiming to force concessions in trade negotiations [1][6]. - Trump's negotiation style, characterized by a combination of pressure and offers, is deemed ineffective against China, which is well aware of such tactics [2][5]. - The U.S. has recently implemented additional discriminatory measures against China, including restrictions on AI chip exports and halting sales of chip design software [6][8]. Group 2: China's Response and Capabilities - China maintains a strong position in the global supply chain for critical minerals, controlling over 90% of the global production of rare earth magnets, which serves as leverage against U.S. pressure [6][9]. - Despite expectations that China might ease export restrictions on key minerals, there has been no confirmation of such actions, and exports of rare earth permanent magnets to the U.S. dropped by 58.5% in April [7][9]. - Analysts suggest that unless the U.S. makes concessions on significant issues, China is unlikely to accelerate the approval of rare earth exports [9]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexity of U.S.-China relations, with multiple contentious issues such as intellectual property, forced technology transfers, and state subsidies needing resolution [9]. - The sentiment among analysts and business leaders indicates that China is not intimidated by U.S. pressure and is prepared to maintain a cautious approach in negotiations [9].

美国买不到稀土，就开始拿C919威胁中国，特朗普是怎么做的？我们又是如何回应的？ 不久前，虽然中美两国高层就经贸问题进行了会谈，并且双方也达成了一定的共识，都相互降低了部分关税，表面上看两国经贸关系稍有缓和，但实际情况 是，美国妄图打压我国的动作从未停止。近日，又有消息传来，美国商务部已暂停了部分允许美国公司向中国商飞出售产品和技术的许可证，试图以此来削 弱中国公司开发C919客机的能力。目前，虽然我国的C919大飞机已经开启了常态化商业运营，覆盖北京、上海、广州、杭州等中国城市，但C919包括发动 机在内的许多零部件，仍依赖从美国和欧洲进口，特朗普政府正是看准了这一点，妄图以此来要挟我国，迫使我国在经贸问题上作出进一步让步。说直白点 就是，特朗普政府对我国新的"断供"已经开始上演。 为什么我国在中美高层会谈后，没有直接放开对美国的稀土供应？主要原因不还是美国对我国的打压没有收手的意思吗？就在之前中美会谈结束后不久，美 国商务部工业和安全局(BIS)就出台了三条新措施强化AI芯片出口管制：一是明确在全球任何地方使用华为昇腾芯片均违反美国出口管制规定；二是提醒公 众，让美国AI芯片用于训练和推理中国的AI模型， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soymeal is that it may fluctuate due to trade friction concerns and weak US soybeans, and the rating for soybeans is "sideways" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to trade disputes and good weather in the US Midwest. The uncertain outlook for agricultural product exports and sufficient South American soybean supply also put pressure on the market [4] - The Chinese government has been implementing the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, while the US has introduced discriminatory restrictions, increasing the uncertainty of bilateral economic and trade relations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Soybean 2507 closed at 4,117 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan (-0.07%); DCE Soymeal 2509 closed at 2,968 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (+0.51%); CBOT Soybean 07 closed at 1,034.5 cents/bushel, down 7.75 cents (-0.74%); CBOT Soymeal 07 closed at 294.5 dollars/short ton, down 1.6 dollars (-0.54%) [2] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soymeal (43%) was 2,920 - 2,960 yuan/ton, up 10 - 40 yuan from the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2,880 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in South China, the price in Dongguan Fuyuan was 2,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 330,000 tons/day, compared with 875,000 tons in the previous trading day, and the inventory was 2.158 million tons in the previous week [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On May 30, CBOT soybean futures fell due to Trump's remarks on Sino - US trade disputes and good weather in the US Midwest [4] - On June 2, CBOT soybean futures fell to a seven - week low due to good weather in the US soybean - growing areas, tense Sino - US relations, and sufficient South American soybean supply. As of June 1, the US soybean planting was 84% complete, and the good - to - excellent rate was 67% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal and soybeans on the reporting day was 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1426 against the US dollar, showing a decline of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1439 [1] - This week is significant for euro traders due to the release of two high-impact financial data points: the preliminary harmonized consumer price index (HICP) for May and the revised GDP for the first quarter [2] - A slowdown in the HICP data could weaken the euro, indicating reduced inflationary pressure in the eurozone, which may increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, but actual actions may not sufficiently weaken the euro, as another cut is expected by year-end [2] - Political instability within Europe, particularly related to Ukraine and Palestine, continues to be a concern for euro traders [2] - Any progress in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine could positively impact the euro, while easing trade tensions between the EU and the US may also support the euro [2] Group 3 - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is at the 55-day moving average of 1.1175, with further support levels at the May low of 1.1064 and the psychological level of 1.1000 [2] - If these levels are breached, the euro may test the critical 200-day moving average support at 1.0815 [2] - Momentum indicators show divergence, with the average directional index (ADX) around 20 indicating weakening trend strength, while the relative strength index (RSI) breaking above 60 suggests increasing bullish momentum [2]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that the U.S. has continuously provoked new trade frictions, increasing uncertainty and instability in bilateral economic relations, and has unjustly accused China of violating agreements from the Geneva trade talks [1] - From May 26 to June 1, national freight logistics operated in an orderly manner, with national railways transporting 77.638 million tons of goods, a decrease of 0.16% month-on-month; highway freight traffic reached 52.008 million vehicles, down 6.14%; monitored ports completed a cargo throughput of 277.418 million tons, an increase of 2.24%, while container throughput was 6.517 million TEUs, down 0.72% [1] - On June 2, the national railway is expected to send 17.9 million passengers, with 1,279 additional passenger trains planned [1] Strategic Mineral Control - Various regions in China are implementing measures to prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals, with the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism issuing a deployment plan for comprehensive control of strategic mineral exports [2] - Guizhou will strictly follow the deployment plan, while Hunan will conduct systematic inspections of local strategic mineral export enterprises and guide them to enhance compliance awareness [2] - Guangxi will intensify supervision of strategic mineral exploration and mining, cracking down on illegal mining activities [2] Real Estate Market - In May, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand housing in Shanghai reached 2.23 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2] - The real estate market in Shanghai has shown characteristics of "increased volume and stable prices" from January to May this year [2]