Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a potential new round of copper price increases due to the long-term processing fee for copper mines being set at $0 per ton, which raises expectations for reduced smelting output [1] - The report maintains a positive outlook on various metals including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The LME copper price closed at $11,870.5 per ton, up 1.58% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at 93,000 yuan per ton, down 0.61% week-on-week. The processing fee for copper concentrate for 2026 was set at $0 per ton, leading to expectations of price elasticity under supply constraints [2][3] - Aluminum: LME aluminum closed at $2,955.5 per ton, up 2.80% week-on-week, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, up 0.32% week-on-week. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity and improved logistics in Xinjiang, while also highlighting the need to monitor inventory levels as demand transitions to a weaker seasonal phase [3] - Tin: As of December 19, the SHFE tin main contract was at 343,040 yuan per ton, up 3.88% week-on-week. Supply risks from conflict-affected regions have tightened raw material availability, while domestic inventory is increasing due to high prices and subdued demand [9] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: COMEX gold and silver closed at $4,354.0 and $66.8 per ounce, respectively, with increases of 1.25% and 8.85% week-on-week. The report indicates a long-term bullish trend for gold prices driven by central bank and ETF accumulation [2] Strategic Metals - Rare Earths: As of December 19, prices for praseodymium and terbium oxides were 576,000 and 607,500 yuan per ton, respectively. The report notes strict adjustments in rare earth smelting due to regulatory controls, with potential for price increases if export orders recover significantly [10] - Cobalt: The price of cobalt is around 410,000 yuan per ton, with a tight supply of raw materials. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on cobalt prices due to supply constraints [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price retreat is more indicative of high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal, supported by long-term factors such as cooling inflation and interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide a safe-haven premium for gold [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 19, spot gold saw profit-taking from bulls, closing up 0.17% at $4,338.53 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [1] - The overall trend for gold remains positive, with expectations for a potential upward breakout targeting $4,515.63 and even $5,000 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee welcomed data indicating inflation moving towards the 2% target, suggesting that further interest rate cuts could be on the table next year [1] - Market participants are cautious regarding the Fed's policy outlook, with a 27% probability of a rate cut in January and over 50% in March [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are maintaining above the 100-period index moving average, with a complete mid-term upward channel [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a strong zone despite a slight pullback, indicating continued bullish momentum [3] - A breakout above $4,350 could lead to a retest of the historical high of $4,381 and further towards the $4,400 mark, while $4,300 serves as a critical short-term support level [4]

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间12月20日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.1% 报4368.7美元/盎司，周涨0.93%，COMEX白银期货涨3.34%报67.395美元/盎司，刷新历史新高，周涨 8.69%。 市场分析人士认为，受美国11月CPI低于预期强化降息预期提振避险需求的影响，白银因工业需求旺盛 与ETF资金流入创历史新高。 广发期货此前发布报告认为，今年COMEX白银市场出现大规模的实物交割需求越超往年的情况，合约 在交割月的首周后仍有较多未了结的头寸，而当前伦敦白银拆借和租赁利率再度抬头升至7%以上为10 月末以来的高位，空头获得实物的成本增加，进一步表明履约的困难，这也成为多头持续看好银价上涨 的理由。 报告还提到，全球最大白银ETF SLV基金持仓达到16000吨以上创约三年半新高，其他白银ETF的持仓 亦有上升，资金流入速度在价格不断创新高的情况下并未放缓。 ...

受美国通胀数据低于预期、市场降息押注升温的提振，黄金与白银价格徘徊在历史高点附近。 截至纽约时间周五早盘，现货黄金价格逼近每盎司 4330 美元，有望实现连续第二周上涨。周四公布的 数据显示，美国核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅创下 2021 年初以来的最低水平，这进一步强化 了市场对借贷成本下行的预期，而这一预期对于不产生利息收益的贵金属而言，无疑是一大利好因素。 不过，上月才结束的创纪录的六周政府停摆，使得这份最新通胀报告的参考价值大打折扣。美联储上周 宣布连续第三次降息后，对于未来货币宽松的节奏始终态度模糊。交易员目前预计，美联储在明年 1 月 降息的概率约为 20%，而美国总统特朗普则公开呼吁，明年应采取激进的降息举措。 包括委内瑞拉局势在内的地缘政治紧张态势，也进一步提升了黄金的避险吸引力。本周，特朗普下令对 委内瑞拉海岸附近所有受制裁的油轮实施封锁。随着美国在该地区军事部署持续加码，其对委内瑞拉政 府的施压也在不断升级。 贵金属价格今年一路高歌猛进，黄金与白银均有望创下 1979 年以来的最佳年度表现。在各国央行大举 购金，以及黄金 ETF（交易所交易基金）资金持续流入的双重支撑下，白银价格涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the platinum and palladium markets showed strong performance. The palladium futures main contract reached the daily limit twice, and the platinum futures main contract hit the daily limit once. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30% this week, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03% [5]. - The recent sharp increase in platinum - group metal prices is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The rapid recovery of the London platinum lease rate indicates tightened physical supply, and the continuous increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. High basis and price differences between domestic and foreign markets stimulate arbitrage motives [5]. - In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [5]. - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase the short - term correction risk due to the upward repair demand of the basis. Next week, the spot price of London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2000 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce, while the spot price of London palladium is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - This week, the platinum and palladium markets were strong. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30%, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03%. The price increase is driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The medium - to - long - term price of platinum may be supported, while the demand outlook for palladium is weak, but there is some short - term price support. There is a short - term correction risk, and the price ranges for London platinum and palladium are predicted [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 19, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main 2606 contract was at 480.20 yuan per gram, up 23.20% this week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 533.55 yuan per gram, up 18.03% [10]. - As of December 2, 2025, the net long position of NYMEX platinum increased by 1.51% month - on - month to 23,286, and the net long position of NYMEX palladium decreased by 16.76% month - on - month to - 1491 [15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [16]. - As of December 18, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 1.66% month - on - month to 624,733.09 ounces, and palladium inventory decreased by 1.26% month - on - month to 186,849.34 ounces [23]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold increased, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices increased, and the positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index increased [24][27][31]. 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of October 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend, while the global supply of platinum and palladium is declining [40][45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly [54].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 美国 11 月 CPI 点评 通胀回落，指引失真 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 12 月 18 日，美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%，较 9 月 下行 0.3 个百分点，核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，较 9 月回落 0.4 个百分点。环比数据因联邦政府停摆导致价格采 集受限，相关读数未能正常披露。 评论： 图1：11 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 11月CPI分项 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has reignited, coupled with a surge in oil prices, leading to a rise in zinc prices in both the London and Shanghai markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London zinc prices rose by 1.2%, closing at $3072 per ton, with a trading volume of 13,235 lots, a decrease of 7,726 lots [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures opened higher and experienced wide fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 23,065 yuan per ton, up 140 yuan, or 0.61% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc concentrate production in November was 311,400 tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons from October, as some northern mines entered a winter production cut phase [2]. - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global zinc ingot production of 1,192,800 tons and consumption of 1,219,600 tons by October 2025, indicating a supply shortage of 26,700 tons [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Domestic zinc ingot inventories have been continuously declining, with a weekly decrease of 12.34%, reaching the lowest level in three and a half months [2]. - Despite the seasonal slowdown in demand, the current market shows strong support for zinc prices due to ongoing inventory depletion and increased purchasing activity from downstream sectors [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of the US November CPI returning to the "2 era," which supports a rebound in the US dollar and leads to a decline in copper prices by 0.13% [1] - Domestic stock indices are declining, affecting market sentiment, despite tight supply conditions; however, the current copper market is experiencing deep discounts and weak transactions, indicating a potential drop in spot copper prices [1] - The aluminum market shows resilience in consumption from sectors like automotive and electronics, with a low inventory of aluminum ingots, leading to a 0.38% increase in London aluminum prices [1] Group 2 - Zinc prices fell by 0.44% in London due to poor US inflation data and traders reducing positions ahead of Christmas, although tight supply and declining zinc ingot inventories provide some support [1] - Lead prices decreased by 0.05% in London, pressured by a rebound in the US dollar; the lead market is facing structural contraction, but demand remains weak, leading to subdued transactions [1] - Tin prices increased by 1.53% in London, driven by concerns over supply due to geopolitical disturbances, although trading remains quiet due to high spot prices [1] - Nickel prices rose by 1.84% in London, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts following disappointing US CPI data, despite ongoing oversupply pressures [1]

| 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 12 月 18 日，美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%，较 9 月 下行 0.3 个百分点，核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，较 9 月回落 0.4 个百分点。环比数据因联邦政府停摆导致价格采 集受限，相关读数未能正常披露。 评论： 图1：11 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 11月CPI分项同比 | | | | 11月CPI分项环比 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

周五（12月19日）昨夜公布的11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，大幅低于预期的3.1%；核心CPI同比涨幅降至 2.6%，为2021年初以来的最低水平。它为美联储在2026年继续降息提供了强有力的支撑。不过通胀的 超预期快速下降，显著削弱了黄金作为传统"通胀对冲"工具的短期吸引力，导致部分资金选择在冲高后 获利了结。 12月19日，昨日黄金走了一个冲高回落局面，亚盘开盘有所回落，欧盘在跌至4310上方进场多单，随后 美盘开始上扬，多单于晚间自动止盈于4360一线。只是尾盘吐出大多涨幅，最终金价是收盘于4331美 元，日线收于一根小阴线。 来源：市场资讯 21：30美联储威廉姆斯接受CNBC的采访 23：00欧元区12月消费者信心指数初值 23：00美国12月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 23：00美国12月一年期通胀率预期终值 与之前美委紧张局势引发的避险狂潮不同，当前的地缘政治风险边际效应在减弱。备受市场关注的美俄 谈判预计将于本周末重启。这一进展有助于缓解市场对地缘局势失控的担忧，为部分避险买盘的流出提 供了理由，从而限制了金价在CPI数据公布后的持续上涨空间。 从技术上来看，隔夜数据导致市场情绪和行情异动， ...