周三临近欧洲开盘，黄金在短线反弹乏力后回调至日内整理区间下沿，但整体仍稳守 4200 美元之上。 随着风险偏好延续，本周的避险力量有所减弱，令金价上方空间暂时受限。不过，美元持续走软与地缘 局势的不确定性仍为金价提供底部支撑。在重点数据公布前，市场更倾向于保持克制。 隔夜美股期货延续稳步走高，投资者情绪整体偏暖，使黄金盘中反弹后快速遇阻，短线多头操作相对谨 慎。临近 ADP 就业报告与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布，部分资金选择降低仓位，导致日内波动被压缩，黄 金维持弱势整理格局。 在关键数据出炉前，美元维持低位震荡，欧元与澳元早盘表现较为坚挺，而英镑则保持区间运行。美元 走弱令黄金始终处于 4200 上方的支撑带内，但最终的方向仍需等待周五公布的 PCE 物价指数提供更明 确的政策信号。 技术结构显示，隔夜金价在 4155—4150 区域获得稳固买盘支撑后反弹，目前 4200 仍是日内多空争夺的 关键。若能突破 4245—4250 的压制区，有望进一步打开上行空间，测试 4264—4265，并向 4300 心理 关口延伸。反之，一旦跌破 4200，预计会吸引逢低买盘回流，而 4150 依然是更深层的重要防守 ...

客户端 文章来源：金投网 【要闻速递】 周一出炉的美国ISM制造业PMI数据表现不佳，强化了市场对美联储12月10日的降息预期，而且美国总 统特朗普表示，计划在明年初宣布接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选。目前哈赛特是热门候选人，哈赛特被 认为与美国总统特朗普的政府关系密切，支持美国加速降息。 俄罗斯总统外交政策助理乌沙科夫（Yuri Ushakov）周三表示，俄罗斯和美国未能就乌克兰和平达成妥 协，和平既没有更近一步，也没有变得更遥远。他指出，双方未能在最棘手的问题之一--领土争端上取 得妥协。 投资者也将关注本周计划公布的关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业数据，以及周五将公布的美联储首 选通胀指标--9月个人消费支出（PCE）指数。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 文章来源：金投网 【要闻速递】 德商银行：预计未来一年内金价将上涨至4400美元/盎司。预计未来一年银价将进一步上涨，尽管涨幅 温和，但有望达到59美元/盎司。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 现货白银昨日早盘小幅低开在57.687的位置后行情回补58的缺口后回落，日线最低给到了56.531的位置 后行情震荡拉升，尾盘最高触及到了 ...

【要闻速递】 地缘紧张局势显著升温：特朗普宣称将对贩毒集团实施陆地打击；普京威胁切断乌克兰海上通道并加强 军事行动，俄乌冲突呈现升级态势，持续推升市场避险情绪。 特朗普暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席人选，其被视为偏鸽派人物，强化了市场对宽松货币政策的预期。 摘要今日周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，金价回落至4,210美元附近，交易员在数据公布前获利了结令涨势暂 歇。市场紧盯周三ADP就业与ISM服务业PMI，以判美联储动向。白银受益宏观环境保持韧性，下行受 限。投资者预期美联储下周或降息25基点，鸽派倾向支撑无息资产需求，缓冲贵金属回调。铂金测试 1,620–1,630美元支撑，失守或下探50日均线。整体降息预期与避险需求仍为贵金属提供底部支撑。 今日周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，金价回落至4,210美元附近，交易员在数据公布前获利了结令涨势暂歇。 市场紧盯周三ADP就业与ISM服务业PMI，以判美联储动向。白银受益宏观环境保持韧性，下行受限。 投资者预期美联储下周或降息25基点，鸽派倾向支撑无息资产需求，缓冲贵金属回调。铂金测试1,620– 1,630美元支撑，失守或下探50日均线。整体降息预期与避险需求仍为贵金属提 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices reached a new historical high of $58.945 per ounce on December 3, with a year-to-date increase of 103%, significantly outperforming gold, which rose 60% this year [1][3] - COMEX silver prices surpassed $59 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.47%, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract rose to 13,866 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of 2.7% [1][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4] - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, with a slight increase of about 1% in recycled supply, while total demand is anticipated to decline by approximately 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [5] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to drive long-term silver demand, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an increase in solar capacity that could add nearly 150 million ounces of silver demand annually by 2030 [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market anticipates a 89.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to bolster bullish sentiment in the silver market [3] - Despite the significant year-to-date increase in silver prices, the market is showing signs of being overbought, with potential sensitivity to macroeconomic data that could trigger corrections [6] - The current gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 78, indicating potential for further correction towards historical averages, while expectations of continued rate cuts may reinforce trading strategies focused on this ratio [6] Group 4: ETF Holdings - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,863.15 tons, an increase of 60.79 tons from the previous day, indicating sustained high interest in silver investments [7]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌停战谈判有新进展，主要国家降息预期降低，黄金高位调整。黄金中长期地缘 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期交割逼仓以及低库存引发白银大涨，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货 高升水、白银期货波动率飙升，昨日上期所库存增加，短期不宜追高，关注波动风 | | ★★ | 不宜追高 | 险。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储内部分歧严重，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜均高位回落，建议不要盲目追高，多单逐渐逢高止盈，中 | | ★ | | 长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌受 | | ★ | 反弹 | 阻于 22800 压力位，宽幅震荡。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 | 承压 | 12 月原生铅、再生铅检修与复产并存，整体有 ...

周三(12月3日)亚洲时段，纸白银涨势突然"熄火"，截止发稿纸白银价格暂报13.191元/克，上涨1.70%， 短线来看纸白银走势偏向调整，今日美国11月ADP就业指标即将出炉，在非农指标暂时缺席的情况 下，"小非农"的表现预计将在一定程度上左右市场的情绪，指引白银走势方向。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 纸白银亚盘短线调整，收窄日内涨幅，日线MACD指标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看多信号，RSI释 放看多信号，上方阻力关注13.40-13.50，下方支撑关注12.80-12.90。 本周，市场还将迎来更多关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业报告和周五的9月个人消费支出(PCE)物价 指数，后者是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。这些数据如果继续显示疲软，将进一步巩固降息预期，推动银 价走高。 今日的基本面主要关注21：15的美国11月ADP就业人数，本轮预期2万人，前值4.2万人，随后看21:30的 美国9月进口物价指数月率。稍晚看22:15的美国9月工业产出月率和22:45的美国11月标普全球服务业 PMI终值和23:00的美国11月ISM非制造业PMI。 【要闻速递】 周一公布的11月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | H 洋海 Z0019938 2025年12月3日 | | | 田温 | | | 12月2日 12月1日 | | | 0.12% | | | 期价 Y2601 8288 8288 0 0.00% | | | 墓差 Y2601 332 322 10 3.11% | | | = | | | 它車 7419 5469 1950 35.66% | | | 棕櫚油 | | | 12月2日 12月1日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 广东24度 8570 50 0.58% | | | 8652 期价 P2601 68 0.79% | 8720 | | 星差 P2601 -100 -82 -18 -21.95% | | | 仓单 355 352 0 0.00% | | | 菜籽油 | | | 涨跌 12月2日 12月1日 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 江苏三级 10080 10080 0 0.00% | | | 期价 Ol601 9745 9770 -25 -0.26% | | | 其美 Ol601 રૂઝેટ 310 ર્ટ 8.06% | | | 现货基差报价 0 ...

降息预期突变：从"鹰派坚守"到"放水在即" | く 気 | 欧美指数 () | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅。 | 温暖 | | 道琼斯 | 47289.33 -0.90% -427.0 | | | | DJIA | | | | | 纳斯达克 | 23275.92 -0.38% | | -89.7 | | NDX | | | | | 标普 500 | 6812.63 -0.53% -36.4 | | | | SPX | | | | | 英国富时100 9702.53 -0.18% | | | -17498 | | FTSE | | | | | 德国DAX30 23589.44 -1.04% -247.3! | | | | | GDAXI | | | | | 法国CAC40 | 8097.00 -0.32% | | -25.7 | | FCHI (延) | | | | 美联储12月降息概率飙升87.4%，美股却全线下跌：市场在担心什么？ 美银一份最新报告让整个金融市场屏住了呼吸：美联储12月降息的概率已飙升至87.4%，就在一个月前，这一概率还不 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy remains. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term loose expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly retraced. The manufacturing PMI in November showed strong resilience, so there is no strong need for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, in the long run, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. From the perspective of the monetary policy to stabilize demand, the future monetary policy environment tends to be loose, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a strengthening trend against the US dollar (USD), supported by improvements in employment and persistent inflation, while facing challenges from commodity price volatility and uncertainties in iron ore demand [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's Q3 CPI rose to 3.2% year-on-year, with trimmed mean inflation at 3% [1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October, with an increase of 42,200 jobs, including a significant rise of 55,000 full-time positions [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to resilient inflation and employment data [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative stance is providing an advantage to the AUD, with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, although Chairman Powell indicated that rate cuts are not guaranteed, which may create policy expectation volatility [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - China's iron ore imports exceeded 100 million tons in October, marking the fifth consecutive month above this threshold, while Brent crude oil prices are declining, partially offsetting the AUD's commodity-related support [1][2] - Structural contradictions in the Australian economy and fluctuations in external demand are constraining the AUD's upward movement, with rising inflation driven by housing and electricity costs potentially suppressing consumer spending [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - There is a notable divergence among institutions regarding the future of the AUD, with Oxford Economics predicting a potential rate cut by the RBA in 2026, while Capital Economics believes faster rate cuts by the Fed will support the AUD [2] - Technical indicators show that the AUD has formed a consolidation platform around 0.6550, with a bullish signal emerging from the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6580-0.6600, with support levels at 0.6550-0.6560, and future movements will depend on upcoming data releases from the Fed and Australian inflation figures [2]