Macro Policy - The macro policy focus for the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes solid execution of development reform work, focusing on major changes, important indicators, and significant issues [2] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance aims to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy and increase counter-cyclical adjustments, including accelerating the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government bonds [3] - The fiscal strategy includes improving the microeconomic cycle through tax and financial support for enterprises, and managing local government debt risks [3] Domestic Demand Expansion - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as a growth driver [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance investment and consumption, stimulate private investment, and support new consumption models [4] Consumer Policy - The Ministry of Finance is working on improving policies to support service consumption in areas like elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [5] - There is a focus on developing a healthy retail environment for duty-free goods and enhancing financial support for personal consumption loans [5] Employment and Livelihood - Employment remains a priority, with initiatives to expand job opportunities in sectors like digital economy and green economy [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture aims to ensure food security and complete the annual grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin [7][8] Safety and Stability - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of maintaining safety in key sectors, including food, energy, and supply chains [8] - There is a commitment to enhance disaster prevention and safety production measures while supporting basic livelihood services [8]

Macro Policy - The macro policy focus for the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" to support economic growth [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of steady employment and expanding domestic demand as key areas for policy preparation [2] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - There will be an acceleration in the issuance and use of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work volume [3] - The fiscal policy will support traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry growth, and future industry planning through various financial tools [3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth [3] - The focus will be on improving the efficiency of fund usage and enhancing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies [3] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as a primary growth driver [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to stabilize investment and promote consumption, enhancing government investment project management [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement strategies to expand domestic demand and support the industrial economy [4] Consumer Policy - The Ministry of Finance will improve the policy framework to support consumption in sectors like elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [5] - There will be a focus on enhancing the duty-free shop policy and promoting healthy development in the duty-free retail business [5] Employment and Livelihood - Employment stability is a priority, with plans to expand job opportunities in key sectors such as digital economy and green economy [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin for the year [7][8] - Comprehensive measures will be taken to ensure food, energy, and supply chain security while enhancing public safety and disaster prevention [8]

做到"适时加力"，要求政策工具储备更加充足、工具选择更加精准，确保关键时刻能有充足"弹药"投放 到最需要的领域。此次会议作出的一系列重要部署中，各项结构性货币政策工具的加力支持，瞄准了科 技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。这4个领域，对应着实现高水平科技自立自强、激活国内 大市场和内需潜力、惠企纾困稳定就业基本盘、应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性等现实中的难点堵 点，需要政策工具精准滴灌。 越来越多"发力""加力"政策推出之后，协同配合的问题也会更加突出。只有从全局高度审视不同领域的 宏观政策，增强宏观政策取向一致性，把非经济性政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，强化政策统筹， 才能更好实现既定发展目标。 我国经济正处于转型升级的关键阶段，此时强调宏观政策持续发力适时加力，既是对复杂形势的主动回 应，也是对高质量发展要求的深刻把握。保持战略定力，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，集中精力办好自 己的事，我们就能在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，为"十四五"圆满收官奠定坚实基础。 （文章来源：经济日报） "十四五"规划收官之年，做好下半年经济工作至为关键。 中央政治局日前召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，强调"宏观 ...

Macro Policy - The macro policy focus for the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes solid work in development reform, focusing on major changes, important indicators, and significant issues to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand [2][3] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance aims to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy and increase counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - Plans include accelerating the issuance and use of ultra-long special bonds and local government special bonds to generate physical workload [3] - The fiscal policy will support traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry growth, and future industry layout through various financial tools [3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth [3] - The focus will be on improving the efficiency of fund usage and enhancing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies [3] Domestic Demand Expansion - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, continuing to be a primary growth driver [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to stabilize investment and promote consumption, enhancing government investment project management and stimulating private investment [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement strategies to expand domestic demand and support the industrial economy [4] Consumer Policy - The Ministry of Finance will improve the policy system supporting consumption in services such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [5] - Policies will include enhancing duty-free shop regulations and promoting healthy development of duty-free retail businesses [5] Employment and Livelihood - Ensuring livelihood security is a key focus for the second half of the year [6] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will implement job expansion plans in key sectors and promote employment growth in digital, green, and nighttime economies [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on grain production and poverty alleviation, aiming for a grain output target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin [7]

Group 1: Market Data and Repo Operations - The closing price of DROO1 is 1.31, up 0.07 bp; DR007 is 1.45, up 2.76 bp; GC001 is 1.31, up 1.50 bp; GC007 is 1.46, down 0.50 bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.56, down 0.40 bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.37, down 0.40 bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.58, up 0.81 bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.71, up 0.42 bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.23, down 14.00 bp [4] - The central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 105.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day and 495.8 billion yuan maturing in total. The net investment on the day was 49 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1,663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.39% to 4070.7; SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2769.4; CSI 500 rose 0.78% to 6261.7; CSI 1000 rose 1.04% to 6739.7. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1,498.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.8 billion yuan from last Friday [4] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with aerospace, precious metals, motors, instrumentation, general equipment, jewelry, shipbuilding, auto parts, and plastic products leading the gains, while commercial department stores and insurance sectors leading the losses [4] - After a short - term "profit - taking" trading, the stock index regained its strong trend. The current stock index valuation is still supported. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, although its P/E ratio has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historical high (74.25% quantile). With Huijin supporting liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. The strategy is to go long on the stock index this week [5] Group 3: Futures Market - Ascending and Descending Water Conditions - IF ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 4.49%, the next - month contract is 0.00%, the current - quarter contract is 0.01%, and the next - quarter contract is 3.06% [6] - IH ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is - 0.97%, the next - month contract is - 0.29% (11.75% annualized), the current - quarter contract is - 0.27% (10.52% annualized), and the next - quarter contract is - 0.23% (9.63% annualized) [6] - IC ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 16.50%, the current - quarter contract is 11.29%, and the next - quarter contract is 10.92% [6] - IM ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 13.73%, and the next - month contract is 11.43% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a range-bound and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to adjust in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of production [3] - 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui: 1 stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [4] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the weak supply - demand pattern, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [4] Aluminum - On the supply side, the port shipment in Guinea was suspended, driving up the alumina futures price slightly. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase, and the demand for bauxite will grow [4] - From late June to July, the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased. From August, the total import volume of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decline, and the domestic supply increment is limited [4] - From August, the inventory accumulation rate of Chinese bauxite is expected to slow down, and the inventory is expected to peak from August to September [4] - In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. The operating capacity increased slightly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan [4] - On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the demand pressure limits the upside space. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for strategic determination and confidence in achieving the goals set out in the "14th Five-Year Plan" as it approaches its conclusion [1] - China's economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing expectations in key indicators [1] - Several indicators related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" have met or exceeded expectations, including urbanization rate and life expectancy [1] Group 2 - The central political bureau meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining macroeconomic policy continuity and flexibility to address external uncertainties [2] - There is a call for proactive measures and a sense of urgency among regions and departments to implement the central government's decisions effectively [2] - The commitment to overcoming challenges and achieving high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is reinforced, laying a foundation for a strong start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic policies, focusing on the strategic opportunities and challenges it faces. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Outlook**: The Chinese economy is experiencing a complex situation with both strategic opportunities and risks, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged. The goal is to achieve around 5% growth for the year through proactive policies and reforms [1][8][10]. 2. **Key Economic Indicators**: In the first half of the year, the economy grew by 5.3%, and to meet the annual target, a growth rate of 4.6% to 4.7% is needed in the second half [1][11]. 3. **Employment Stability**: Employment stability is a major concern, especially with the number of university graduates reaching 12.22 million in 2025. Supporting enterprises, particularly private ones, is crucial for maintaining overall employment levels [9][20]. 4. **Macroeconomic Policies**: The government has implemented a series of proactive macroeconomic policies, including budget adjustments and monetary easing, to stimulate economic recovery [10][14]. 5. **Dual Circulation Strategy**: The strategy aims to enhance domestic demand while improving international competitiveness, balancing internal and external needs [11][12]. 6. **Risks and Challenges**: The economy faces several risks, including external uncertainties and internal structural issues. A bottom-line thinking approach is necessary to navigate these challenges [7][8]. 7. **Reform Focus Areas**: Key areas for reform include technological innovation, nurturing emerging industries, and optimizing market competition [4][16]. 8. **Investment and Consumption**: Expanding domestic demand should integrate both investment and consumption, ensuring a balanced economic cycle [15]. 9. **Capital Market Development**: Enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market is essential for stabilizing economic growth [19]. 10. **Urban Development and Risk Management**: Urban renewal and managing local government debt risks are critical for ensuring financial health and supporting economic development [18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Growth Potential**: Despite current challenges, the Chinese economy has strong foundational support, including abundant talent and strategic confidence [3][6]. 2. **Global Economic Position**: China's per capita income is around $12,500, which is below the high-income threshold set by the World Bank, indicating a need for continued economic growth to reach this status [12]. 3. **Supply-Side Structural Reform**: Addressing issues like overcapacity and internal competition through supply-side reforms is crucial for achieving balanced economic development [22][23]. 4. **Innovation Breakthroughs**: Significant breakthroughs in innovation are expected in various fields, including technology and management, which could enhance China's global competitiveness [27].

1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - series market has entered a high - level consolidation period due to the disappointment of policy increment expectations from important domestic meetings. The market trading focus has returned to the industrial fundamentals [12]. - **Steel Products**: The short - term market fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it will operate within a range. After the disappointment of policy expectations, the market will enter a policy vacuum period, and the price will fluctuate at a high level. The i2601 contract price is expected to be in the range of 745 yuan/ton - 780 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE09 contract price is in the range of 98.5 - 103 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the short - term price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: After important meetings, the market sentiment has cooled down. The alloy price is expected to follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and supply - side policy implementation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The prices of most varieties in the black - series futures market declined last week. For example, the price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3356 yuan/ton on July 25th to 3203 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 4.56%. The price of coking coal JM2601 dropped from 1318.5 yuan/ton to 1092.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14% [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most varieties also showed a downward trend. For example, the price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke dropped from 1430 yuan/ton to 1380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Series Market Forecast - **Steel Products** - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment has a greater impact on the market. The blast - furnace utilization rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, while the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased. The fundamentals of steel products are neutral to bearish, and the market is mainly influenced by macro and market sentiment [9]. - **View**: Wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [9]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore** - **Logic**: The policy expectations have failed to materialize. On the supply side, the support from external mines is gradually weakening, and the supply may increase in the medium term. On the demand side, the daily iron - water output has declined, but the demand still has some resilience. The inventory is expected to be stable or increase slightly in the short term [12]. - **View**: It will operate within a range in the short term, and the price will fluctuate at a high level [12]. - **Attention Points**: Military parade production - restriction policies, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the supply recovery speed [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Logic**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down. The coal - coke futures prices have oscillated and declined. The production of some Shanxi coal mines has decreased, and the demand for coking coal still has some resilience. The inventory is affected by factors such as production and demand [13]. - **View**: Wait and see due to intensified short - term price fluctuations [13]. - **Attention Points**: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled down. On the supply side, the production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron has increased. On the demand side, the demand for silicon - manganese has increased slightly, while the demand for silicon - iron has decreased. The inventory situation of the two is different. The cost side has certain support [14]. - **View**: The price will follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase [14]. - **Attention Points**: Tariff policy changes, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction policies [14]. 3.3 Product Data - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.06 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 tons), the apparent demand was 203.41 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.17 tons), and the total inventory increased by 7.65 tons [16]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 322.79 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.3 tons), the apparent demand was 320 tons (a week - on - week increase of 4.76 tons), and the total inventory increased by 2.79 tons [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Port Inventory**: The total inventory of imported ore at 45 ports was 13657.90 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 132.48 tons [47]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9012.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 126.87 tons, and the daily consumption was 299.46 tons/ day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64 tons [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3200.9 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 91.8 tons [69]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke was 915.4 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 2493.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37.96 tons [98][106]. - **Profit and Utilization Rate**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 45 yuan last week, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2% [115]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/dry ton - degree last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of silicon - manganese was 5720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan; the price of silicon - iron was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [131]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of silicon - manganese was 190820 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 4340 tons; the demand for silicon - manganese was 123715 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45 tons [137][144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon - manganese was 164000 tons on August 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 41000 tons; the inventory of silicon - iron was 65590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3460 tons [148].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy is expected to stimulate overall consumption in the long term, particularly benefiting the infant food sector [8]. - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting indicate a commitment to proactive fiscal and monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [5]. - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 1.45% over the past two weeks, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% [3][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past year, the food and beverage sector has shown a 5.7% increase, but it has lagged behind the Shanghai Composite Index in the short term [3][17]. - The health products segment experienced the smallest decline of 0.01%, while processed foods and meat products fell by 0.16% and 0.30%, respectively [17]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the liquor segment include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [28]. - In the consumer goods segment, recommended stocks include BaiRun Co., WeiLong, Salted Fish, Nongfu Spring, and others [28]. Market Trends - The report highlights a significant drop in the number of banquet reservations for graduation ceremonies, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to recent restrictions [5]. - New product launches by companies like Qiaqia are accelerating, with a focus on innovative and differentiated products to capture market share [9]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, with a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.2% [10]. - The report notes that the beverage market is facing pressure from price wars, particularly in the bottled water segment, impacting profitability [11]. Valuation Metrics - As of August 1, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 20.23x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [23].