有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 铜震荡走高，上涨 1.75%至 9520 美元/吨：SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.84%至 78320 元/吨；国内现货进口小幅盈利。宏观方面，海外方面，美国财政部长贝森特重申，美 | LME | | | | 国财政部正处于"预警轨道"，并重申美国政府永远不会违约，并承诺财政部不会使用 "花招"绕过债务上限。另外， 美国财政部拍卖 420 亿美元 10 年期国债，整体结果稳 | | | | | 健，多个指标健康。国内方面，中国 4 月财新服务业 PMI 50.7，新订单增速放缓，但财 | | | | | 政部部长蓝佛安表示，将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现 2025 年的 5%左右 | | | | 铜 | 增长目标。库存方面，LME 库存下降 1675 吨至 195625 吨；SMM 周二统计全国主流地 | | | | | 区铜库存环比节前减少 0.11 万吨至 12.85 万吨。宏观方面美政府态度持续软化，基本面 | | | | | ...

日报 | 2025-05-07 棉糖延续震荡，纸浆走势偏弱 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约12745元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到厂 价13846元/吨，较前一日变动-79元/吨，现货基差CF09+1101，较前一日变动-74；3128B棉全国均价14113元/吨， 较前一日变动-70元/吨，现货基差CF09+1368，较前一日变动-65。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部统计，至5月4日全美棉花播种进度21%，同比落后2个百分点，较近五年均值领先1 个百分点，处于近年中等水平。其中得州播种进度25%，同比领先2个百分点，较近五年均值领先3个百分点，处于 近年偏快水平。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，4月下旬美国释放可能对华关税降温信号，市场情绪得到改善，但中方表示中 美并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，当前关税所带来的宏观风险尚未完全结束，国内面对外部冲击，财政政策 和扩大内需的力度预计增强，需关注后续国内宏观政策落地情况。国际方面，4月USDA报告小幅上调本年度全球 棉花期末库存，整体调整中性偏空。不过市场对于24/25 ...

成材：关注宏观政策 价格偏弱整理 晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 7 日 逻辑：国务院新闻办公室将于 5 月 7 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会，请 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人 介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。财政 部部长蓝佛安表示，中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现 2025 年的 5%左右增长目标。5 月 6 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平 均成本为 3341 元/吨，平均利润亏损 80 元/吨，谷电利润为 26 元/吨。上 周，钢厂检修产线数量有所下降。有 11 个省份的钢厂涉及检修和复产， 其中检修产线 4 条，复产产线 5 条，按照轧机产量测算，因检修&复产导 致产量减少 15.6 万吨。预计本周检修&复产将导致产量减少 11.92 万吨， 影响量有所下降。 证监许可【2011】1452 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong rebound this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.43%, 2.38%, and 5.24% respectively, driven by increasing expectations of negotiations between China and the US [6][16] - All primary industry sectors in the Hong Kong market experienced gains, with Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare leading the way, achieving weekly increases of 5.0%, 3.7%, and 2.4% respectively [6][16] - The valuation level of the Hang Seng Composite Index reached a 5-year PE (TTM) percentile of approximately 58%, still below the 5-year average [6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the Chinese manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.0, a decline from 50.5 in March, reflecting weaker-than-expected performance and pressure from US-China trade tensions [46][48] - The report highlights that over 80% of the profits in the Hong Kong market come from Chinese companies, which are closely tied to the economic conditions in mainland China [39][41] - The report anticipates that China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve its annual growth targets, in response to external demand pressures [46][48] Group 3 - The report indicates a notable trend in share buybacks, with a total buyback amount of 1.44 billion HKD this week, slightly down from 1.53 billion HKD the previous week [27][30] - A total of 66 companies engaged in buybacks this week, an increase from 62 companies the prior week, indicating a stable market interest in share repurchases [27][30] - The top three companies by buyback amount were AIA Group (57.58 million HKD), China Hongqiao (30.47 million HKD), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (16.26 million HKD) [27][30] Group 4 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies [46][48] - It also suggests focusing on undervalued state-owned enterprises that are likely to benefit from policy support, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks that are relatively insulated from external pressures [46][48] - The report advises caution regarding sectors with significant exposure to US markets due to ongoing trade disputes [46][48]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy and its role in global economic growth, as represented by the statements from the Chinese Minister of Finance, Lan Fang'an, during the Asian Development Bank's 58th Annual Meeting held in Milan, Italy. Core Points and Arguments - **China's Contribution to Global Economy**: China has maintained a contribution rate of approximately 30% to global economic growth in recent years [3] - **GDP Growth**: In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong start to the year [6] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Chinese government plans to adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies and expresses confidence in achieving a growth target of around 5% by 2025 [6] - **Domestic Market and Global Engagement**: China aims to continue building a unified domestic market and expand high-level opening-up, sharing development opportunities and benefits with the world, particularly with Asia-Pacific members [6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Bilateral Meetings**: During the conference, Lan Fang'an engaged in bilateral meetings with ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa, discussing ADB's future operational development and sharing China's development experiences [6]

财政部部长蓝佛安：中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标 财政部部长蓝佛安：中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标 2025年5月4日至7日，亚洲开发银行(以下简称亚行)理事会第58届年会在意大利米兰举行。 本届年会以"共享经验，共建未来"为主题，并就通过数字化转型促进亚太区域一体化发展等议题进行讨论。 财政部部长、亚行中国理事蓝佛安与会并发言，并进行了系列双边会谈。 财政部副部长、亚行中国副理事廖岷陪同参会。 2025年5月4日至7日，亚洲开发银行(以下简称亚行)理事会第58届年会在意大利米兰举行。 本届年会以"共享经验，共建未来"为主题，并就通过数字化转型促进亚太区域一体化发展等议题进行讨论。 财政部部长、亚行中国理事蓝佛安与会并发言，并进行了系列双边会谈。 财政部副部长、亚行中国副 各成员应同舟共济，秉持开放包容、团结合作精神，尊重多边机构规则，为全球经济发展注入更多确定性和正能 量。 中方呼吁亚行高举多边主义旗帜，发挥多边合作平台作用，推动各成员加强政策协调，帮助发展中成员加快经济 发展和深化区域合作，坚持应对气候变化的既定政策方向， ...

资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-07 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250414 | 2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke futures contracts 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to weak". The overall view is a sideways trading approach [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: The price of coking coal has been continuously declining, and it is expected to maintain a weak sideways movement after the holiday [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending May 2, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 80.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons, with positive growth for 6 consecutive weeks and 5.7 million tons higher than the same period last year. In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and Shanxi's coal production remained high. Although the import volume decreased slightly year - on - year, the reduction was expected to be limited, so the supply pressure remained high [5]. - **Demand**: In the week ending May 2, the total daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons. Due to Sino - US trade frictions and the sluggish performance of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, the long - term demand for coking coal is still a concern [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The main futures contract of coke maintains a low - level sideways movement, with intense multi - empty game [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Compared with coking coal, the short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable. Although the molten iron output remains high and the short - term demand is okay, affected by overseas risks and cost pressure from coking coal, the market sentiment is not optimistic [6]. - **Macro Factors**: Since April, Sino - US trade frictions have been反复, and there is strong uncertainty about future tariff disputes. At the same time, domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, such as the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposing more active macro - policies [6].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Investment - Since April, domestic macro policies have accelerated implementation to address external uncertainties, with local governments issuing 10,665 billion yuan in new special bonds, achieving 24.2% of this year's target, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The 2025 government work report sets macro policy goals including a new special bond issuance of 44,000 billion yuan, an increase of 5,000 billion yuan from last year, and a fiscal deficit rate raised to 4%, with a deficit scale increase of 16,000 billion yuan from last year [1] - Major economic indicators show signs of stabilization and recovery, with fixed asset investment reaching 103,174 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and private fixed asset investment growing by 0.4% [1] Group 2: Steel Demand and Supply Dynamics - Current weekly apparent demand for rebar has recovered to 2.738 million tons, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline, supported by increased infrastructure investment and a gradual reduction in real estate investment decline [2] - Steel mills are experiencing improved operating conditions, with short-process electric arc furnace utilization rates rising to 56.3%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Rebar weekly production has increased to 2.292 million tons, up by 113,000 tons year-on-year, indicating high production levels during the traditional peak season in May and June, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Group 3: Inventory and Price Outlook - Rebar total inventory has decreased to 7.33 million tons, down by 860,000 tons from the end of March and 2.15 million tons year-on-year, indicating a low inventory level historically [3] - Despite some downward pressure on rebar demand, expectations of reduced crude steel production and relatively low price valuations suggest a potential for a phase of price rebound after a bottoming out [3]