Core Viewpoint - The pricing of interest rate bonds is primarily influenced by three aspects: long-term fundamentals, medium-term policy, and short-term technical factors. The current market is characterized by a "top and bottom" scenario, with a focus on band trading strategies. The macroeconomic situation has not shown significant improvement, and financial data continues to underperform expectations, providing support for the bond market [1][5]. Fundamental Analysis - The main pricing factors for interest rates are economic growth and inflation. Economic growth determines real interest rates, while inflation, driven by domestic demand, is closely linked to economic activity. Therefore, inflation is fundamentally an issue of economic growth [1][3]. - The current macroeconomic reality supports interest rate bonds, with the ten-year government bond yield facing difficulty in rising further due to high funding costs for banks and limited downward pressure on yields [1][4]. Policy Analysis - The central bank maintains a loose liquidity stance, with interbank funding rates remaining stable. The current low interest rate environment is not expected to change significantly, as the absolute level of rates is low, but the term spread is narrow, indicating a maintenance of the current low rate state rather than a push for lower rates [4][5]. - The government's fiscal policy remains proactive, using bond issuance to stabilize the economy. However, there are concerns about whether fiscal stimulus will continue at the same intensity, especially as the peak of bond issuance may have passed [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The widening gap between social financing and RMB loans indicates ongoing government leverage to stabilize the economy. However, both corporate and household loan growth remains in a downward trend, suggesting that domestic demand has not shown significant improvement [3][4]. - The market is currently in a narrow trading range, with potential for upward or downward breakthroughs depending on inflation changes, the central bank's interest rate stance, and potential changes in tariffs [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, being the only ETF tracking the ten-year government bond index. It holds a benchmark position in the market and offers good allocation value for interested investors [5].

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes the need for increased consumption and investment to achieve first-world living standards in China, as highlighted by economist Gu Zhaoming [1][4] - The article discusses two main drivers of economic growth: consumption-driven growth and borrowing for investment, both of which remain crucial today [2][4] - It points out the stark contrast between China's production growth and low consumption levels, with consumer spending as a percentage of GDP remaining below 40% compared to the U.S. at 67.9% [5][6] Group 2 - The article notes that high savings rates in China, exceeding 20%, hinder consumer spending and consequently reduce corporate willingness to invest [5][6] - It argues that the development of the service sector is essential for balancing the economy, as service consumption in China is significantly lower than in the U.S. [8][9] - The need for a shift in labor market policies to support service industry growth and reduce working hours is emphasized as a prerequisite for economic balance [9][10] Group 3 - The article suggests that increased consumption will lead to a positive feedback loop, encouraging businesses to invest and borrow more, ultimately benefiting the economy [11][13] - It draws parallels with Germany's economic model, where a strong service sector supports income distribution and reduces social inequality [10][14] - The potential for China's economy to evolve into a model where consumption matches that of Germany and investment mirrors that of the U.S. is highlighted, contingent on effective use of technology and consumer stimulation [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - In the short term, interest rate cuts boost the financial attribute of copper, lifting the bottom center of copper prices. However, without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upside space is also limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and copper prices will at least fluctuate. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract this week is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate. To continue to rebound upwards, there needs to be an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in interest rate cut expectations under non - recession conditions. To break through downwards, the TC needs to strengthen unexpectedly and refined zinc needs to continuously accumulate inventory. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Macro - environment is generally stable, with some cost support in the short term. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down. The price decline space is limited, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upside space. The main contract is expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, and inventory pressure has eased. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The resumption of production expectations affect market sentiment, and strong demand provides support for the price floor. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 72,000 - yuan pressure level for the main contract [19]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,745 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2,532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 270,100 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,365.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,550 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was - 1,805 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 68.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% from the previous month. The aluminum profile开工率 was 53.00%, an increase of 1.92% from the previous week [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 was 53.41%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% from the previous month. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 15.21 million tons, an increase of 3.96% from the previous week [8]. - **Tin**: In July, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [11]. - **Nickel**: Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% from the previous month. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [19].

2025 年 09 月 10 日 宏观经济点评 宏 观 经 济 点 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 PPI 同比增速回升或因输入性与地产链基数回落 《非美地区需求或仍锚定美国需求— 宏观经济点评》-2025.9.9 《国债买卖或重启，服务消费有望加 码—宏观周报》-2025.9.7 《 就业降温明显，但 50bp 降息尚需 通胀配合—美国 8 月非农就业数据点 评》-2025.9.6 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | | | guoxiaobin@kysec.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | | | 证书编号：S0790525070004 | | | 事件：8 月 | CPI | 同比-0.4%，预期-0.2%，前值 | 0%；PPI | 同比-2.9%，预期-2.9%， | 核心 CPI 环比连续五个月超季节性 8 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点至-0.4%；环比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点 至 0%。 1、鲜菜价格带动食品 CPI 环比回升 8 月 CPI ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 79,000 [1] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors continue to show divergent trends, with manufacturing contracting and services expanding [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, below the expected 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52, exceeding both expectations and the previous value [1] - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant decline, with only 54,000 jobs added, falling short of the expected 68,000 and the previous 104,000 [1] Index Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 2.51%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 1.01% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.33% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, five sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 5.07%, while energy was the worst performer, declining by 3.52% [2][3] Investment Direction - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a surge in gold prices and volatility in U.S. equities [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly risen, with projections indicating a potential cut starting in September [4] - The upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data will be closely monitored as inflationary pressures remain concentrated in the fourth quarter [4] - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. equity growth [4] - The S&P 500 Index is recognized as a benchmark for U.S. equities, covering over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization [4] Nasdaq 100 ETF - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant allocation of 57.87% in the information technology sector [5] - The index includes high-quality technology companies, providing exposure to various sectors such as consumer services, consumer goods, and healthcare [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic indicators for August, highlighting a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) decrease of 0.4% and a Producer Price Index (PPI) decrease of 2.9%, which aligns closely with the company's predictions. The article emphasizes the impact of base effects on these indices and suggests a slight improvement in the economic outlook for September and beyond [1][5][19]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4%, lower than the predicted -0.13%, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, closely matching the forecast of -2.96%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI is approximately -1.40%, similar to the previous value of -1.44% [1][5]. - The article notes that August experienced significant base pressure for CPI and PPI, indicating a collision of the highest CPI base pressure and the largest PPI base advantage of the year [1][6]. Monthly Trends - Both CPI and PPI remained flat month-on-month in August, showing slight improvement compared to previous periods. Notably, PPI components marked the first month of positive growth in 2023, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to a new high of 0.9% year-on-year [1][8][19]. - The non-food CPI segment showed weaker month-on-month performance compared to July, primarily due to the price rhythm of durable goods. Despite this, household appliances still saw a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [13][14]. PPI Component Insights - The article highlights a clear stabilization in upstream prices, with mining and raw materials showing significant month-on-month positive changes. Key industries such as coal mining and black metal smelting transitioned from negative to positive growth [16][17]. - The automotive manufacturing sector continued to experience a decline of 0.3% month-on-month, primarily attributed to traditional fuel vehicles, while prices for photovoltaic equipment and new energy vehicles showed reduced year-on-year declines [16][17]. Policy Implications - The article suggests that the rising price indicators in the PMI over three consecutive months indicate initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policies. The PPI data for August supports this conclusion, with a clear policy direction aimed at consolidating competitive restructuring in key industries [3][19]. - Looking ahead, the company forecasts that September's CPI and PPI will benefit from favorable base effects, projecting a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.15% and a PPI decrease of 2.55%, indicating potential improvements in deflationary pressures [19][20]. Market Dynamics - The article discusses the transition from liquidity-driven asset pricing to profit-driven phases, contingent on actual and nominal growth recovery. The construction industry and PPI are identified as critical indicators for this transition [4][20].

Supply - The average operating rate of 247 sample blast furnaces nationwide decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 81.8%, which is 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 68.4%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than 2024 but 4.1 percentage points lower than 2019[2] - The average operating rate of cement grinding fell by 2.3 percentage points to 40.3%, marking a new low compared to the same period in recent years, and is 10.1 and 27.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] Demand - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 11.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[5] - The average sales area of second-hand homes in 18 cities decreased by 4.5% month-on-month but saw a year-on-year increase of 20.3%[5] - The apparent demand for steel increased by 0.1% to approximately 842.8 million tons, but the absolute value is the lowest in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Prices - The South China Index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 4.0%[7] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 12.4%[7] - Pork prices fell by 1.1% to approximately 19.9 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 27.3%[7] Inventory - Coastal power plants' coal inventory decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, but the absolute value remains high, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[8] - Steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories increased by 4.7% and 6.0% month-on-month, respectively, with both being at near historical lows[8] - Asphalt inventory decreased by 7.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.3%[8] Liquidity - The central bank net withdrew 10,086 billion yuan through OMO in the past half month, indicating a tightening of liquidity[10] - The issuance of local special bonds reached 4,449.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 32,819.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving 74.6% of the annual target[11]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - After the summer holiday, domestic travel demand has significantly decreased, with subway passenger volume growth at -0.68% year-on-year and -7.25% month-on-month as of September 6[2] - In August, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%[2] - Export resilience is noted, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 1978.4, down 1.15% month-on-month but up 0.54% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production generally declined in the first week of September, with average blast furnace operating rates down 3.09 percentage points to 80.38%[3] - The chemical industry shows a significant downturn, with PTA production and operating rates down 7.76% and 11.71 percentage points respectively, falling below 70% for the first time this year[3] - The construction sector remains sluggish, with rebar operating rates averaging 42.28%, down 1.6 percentage points[3] Price Performance - Pork prices have seen a narrowing decline, while fruit and vegetable prices have risen, with key monitored vegetable prices up 3.47% and fruit prices up 1.28% as of September 5[3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.38% and Brent crude by 1.01% as of September 5, reflecting a general decline in black commodity prices[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with 820 billion yuan in special bonds and 2.671 trillion yuan in regular bonds issued this week, achieving 70.6% of the annual issuance target[3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to restart government bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy[3] International Macro - The U.S. labor market shows significant weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is high due to ongoing economic slowdown and policy pressures from the Trump administration[1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000. The macro environment has policy information disturbances, causing the market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal supports the rebound of alloys [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Macro**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, higher than the world average, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. Baosteel identified long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state-owned banks decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, showing a three - year downward trend [6]. - **Overseas**: The US postponed trade threats against China and considered sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Since mid - May, production has been on the rise. After the price rebound, inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons. Downstream hot metal production dropped significantly due to military parade production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the macro environment, the market is volatile. Coal strength supports alloy rebound. The silicon - manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the open interest of silicon - manganese futures contracts was 570,700 lots, an increase of 24,573 lots. The spread between the May - 1st contracts of silicon - manganese decreased by 4 points. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 3707 to 62,860, and the spread between the January contracts of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased by 32 points to 290 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 points [23]. 3. Industrial Chain - **Production**: According to Mysteel, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily average output was 30,405 tons, a decrease of 80 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 2.36% to 123,668 tons, and the national weekly supply decreased by 0.26% to 212,835 tons. Production has generally been rising since mid - May, with a slight decline this period [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the total inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 160,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 11,000 tons, etc. [31]. - **Upstream**: As of September 5, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton - degree. As of September 1, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 32,000 tons to 4.414 million tons. The arrival of South African manganese ore increased by 35% to 506,900 tons, while that from Australia decreased by 87.4% to 20,900 tons, etc. On September 5, the spot production cost in the northern region decreased by 10 to 5830 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in the southern region, the cost decreased by 10 to 6240 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33][41][44]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week but an increase of 62,300 tons year - on - year. The silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, with a weak spot market. Supply remains stable, consumption shows improvement, and the inventory build - up rate slows, with expected destocking. Overseas consumption is strong, and there is an increased expectation of interest rate cuts [6]. - Regarding alumina, the adjustment of Xinjiang delivery premium may create arbitrage opportunities. The cost side has support, and although the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus, considering multiple factors, the price should be treated neutrally [6][7]. - For aluminum alloy, scrap aluminum supply is tight, but production profit has recovered, indicating consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On September 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,610 yuan/ton, a change of - 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,470 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 160 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,560 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 70 yuan/ton, a change of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,710 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 160 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,765 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,216 lots, and the open interest was 206,617 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a change of 0.3 tons; the warrant inventory was 59,583 tons, a change of 26 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, with no change [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On September 4, 2025, the price of alumina in Shanxi was 3,140 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,120 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,270 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,280 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,998 yuan/ton, closed at 2,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 44 yuan/ton or - 1.46%. The highest price was 2,998 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,954 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 279,608 lots, and the open interest was 251,793 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On September 4, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of ADC12 Baotai was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 57,900 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,000 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,203 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 197 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro - environment drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, while the spot market is weak. Supply is stable, consumption is improving, and the inventory build - up rate slows, with expected destocking. Overseas consumption is strong, and there is an increased expectation of interest rate cuts [6]. - **Alumina**: A northwest aluminum plant purchased 10,000 tons of alumina at 3,230 yuan/ton, equivalent to a Shanxi ex - factory price of 3,060 yuan/ton. The adjustment of Xinjiang delivery premium by the SHFE may create arbitrage opportunities. The cost side has support, and although the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus, considering multiple factors, the price should be treated neutrally [6][7]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, but production profit has recovered, indicating consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side Strategy**: Bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Long - short arbitrage in SHFE aluminum, long AD11 and short AL11, and reverse arbitrage between January and March contracts of alumina [8]