【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解，50 碱的支撑会导致现货短期 进一步下跌空间或有限。 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影 响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货 源流转，但低利润的格局也可能使得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。在囤货未开启前，市场也难以判断囤货 带来的缺口，因此盘面仍在交易弱现实。 整体看，当前烧碱盘面前期交易山东 32 碱现货压力。氧化铝未开始投产前的备货，出口方面相比前期 略有改善，山东-华南区域套利也支撑 50 碱市场，多空预期交织短期无法证伪，因此市场或呈现宽幅震荡。 期货研究 烧碱：弱现实压制，但预期不悲观 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 ...

续，全球原油中长期供强于需预期给到油价一定压力，只是短期地缘局势仍有不确定性。EB2511日度运行 免责声明 区间预计在6800-6920附近。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | -58 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6870 | | 234360 | -19113 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 13828 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 418956 | | 6870 | -58 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 21306 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | | | | | | | 400920 | | -29445 | 3707 | | 手) | 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 10121 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) -136 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry faces a complex situation. The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased, while the downstream start - up rate increased slightly. Social inventory continued to grow with high pressure. The cost of the calcium carbide method increased, and both the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes are in a state of continuous loss. In the short - term, there are no planned new maintenance devices, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week. In the long - term, new production capacity will increase supply pressure. PVC demand is expected to weaken marginally, and the terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Social inventory pressure is high and difficult to reduce. Calcium carbide prices are expected to remain stable, and the cost of the ethylene method is expected to change little. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4830 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC decreased by 47 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 848,608 hands, an increase of 23,698 hands. The open interest decreased by 2,075 hands. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,124,135 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands; the short position decreased by 950 hands; the net long position was 947,399 hands, a decrease of 102,368 hands [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China remained unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 700 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Northwest Europe remained unchanged. The basis of PVC was 710 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central region increased by 50 yuan/ton, in the northern region was 2,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 41.67 yuan/ton, and in the northwestern region increased by 18 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 2,603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price remained unchanged, and the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 509 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 37 US dollars/ton. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price remained unchanged, and the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 189 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%. The start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 76.96%, a decrease of 2.5%, and the start - up rate of the ethylene method decreased by 4.19%. The total social inventory of PVC was 771,200 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The total social inventory in the East China region was 3,800 tons, and in the South China region was 482,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index decreased by 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 93.05 million square meters, an increase of 4.595 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 43.7794 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 643.10894 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC remained unchanged, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.81%, a decrease of 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC both decreased by 0.1% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%. The PVC downstream start - up rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%, among which the pipe start - up rate increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the profile start - up rate increased by 0.21% to 39.43%. As of September 18th, PVC social inventory was 953,700 tons, a 2.03% increase from the previous week. From September 13th to 19th, the weekly average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5,631 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of the calcium carbide method decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of the ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities for each commodity are given, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For example, PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, PP, LLDPE, methanol, urea, benzene, and soda ash have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook; rubber, asphalt, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PVC, and the container shipping index (European line) have a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][9][13][18][35][39][44][47][63][67][73][78][80]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. In general, many commodities face challenges such as weak demand, high supply, or cost - related pressures. For instance, PX and PTA are affected by weak polyester demand and multiple device overhauls; MEG has a large supply pressure due to new production capacity; synthetic rubber faces high - supply pressure and inventory accumulation; and urea has weak domestic demand and a bearish medium - term trend [4][10][11][18][62]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term rebound possible, but medium - term trend is weak due to weak polyester demand, PTA device overhauls, and loose supply - demand. Hold short - positions and maintain reverse spreads [4][10]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound possible, medium - term weak. 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. Although there was a slight increase in polyester sales over the weekend, overall textile and beverage demand is weak, and polyester production capacity growth is limited [4][10]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is high this year. With new production capacity coming online, the unilateral trend is bearish. Short positions on the single side and hold reverse spreads [11]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. Although supply growth expectations suppress rubber prices, recent typhoon weather has increased concerns about short - term supply release. Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the pace of spot inventory reduction has slowed [13][15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term trading range. The fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, leading to increased inventory pressure. However, the decline in futures prices has already reflected some fundamental pressures, and the downside space is narrowing [16][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - Factories' inventories are slightly increasing, and social inventories are promoting sales through price cuts. This week, the total domestic asphalt production increased, factory inventories in some areas rose, and social inventories in some areas decreased. The overall market is expected to oscillate [19][32]. 3.5 LLDPE - Short - term weakness and medium - term range - bound trading. The short - term weak commodity sentiment affects PE's performance, but the improvement in PE demand from the agricultural film industry's pre - holiday stocking and the expected reduction in supply from Zhenhai Refining's overhaul in late September support the price [33][34]. 3.6 PP - Cautious about short - selling at low levels in the later stage, and medium - term range - bound trading. Short - term demand has improved, but the weak cost - end causes market fluctuations. Supply - side overhauls are increasing, and downstream purchasing is in a "buy - on - rise" state. Be cautious about short - selling before the National Day [37][38]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Weak current situation but not pessimistic about the future. The Shandong spot market is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The market may show wide - range oscillations [42][43]. 3.8 Pulp - Wide - range oscillations. The core contradiction is the game between the external market's price - holding strategy and weak domestic demand. The domestic port inventory is high, and the downstream paper market has weak procurement demand. Pay attention to port inventory changes and macro - market news [47][48]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market supply has no significant change, and the overall market demand is average, with only a small number of downstream processing plants having pre - holiday rush orders [50][51]. 3.10 Methanol - Oscillating under pressure, with the downside space narrowing. The upper pressure comes from high imports and high daily production, while the lower support comes from the expectation of fundamental improvement and domestic anti - involution policies [55][57]. 3.11 Urea - The weekly trend depends on pre - holiday spot order collection, and the medium - term trend is weak. Although exports are accelerating, they cannot make up for the weak domestic demand. The price may fluctuate before the National Day due to promotional order - collection, but the medium - term weak trend remains unchanged [60][62]. 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - Medium - term bearish. The short - term is weak due to weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation. Pure benzene has high supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and there is an opportunity for valuation correction [63][64]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is oscillating steadily, with small changes in production and weak downstream demand. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term, and propylene is expected to be weak at high levels. The market is affected by factors such as CP prices and PDH device overhauls [69][74]. 3.15 PVC - Wide - range oscillations. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, with weak domestic demand and potential policy impacts on exports [77]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is in a short - term adjustment phase with a weak night - session performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is trading in a narrow range, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is narrowing [80]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Oscillating market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI have declined. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and exchange rates [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 19, 2025, the chemical market sentiment was average. The terminal of soda ash replenished stocks before the holiday, and the intraday market was weakly stable. Recently, the soda ash plants were under maintenance, and the overall supply decreased slightly from the high level. In the short term, the profitability of downstream glass increased, and some manufacturers stocked up before the holiday, driving the inventory reduction of soda ash plants. After the soda ash futures rebounded, it declined. With the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short - term trend of soda ash futures may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of policies such as environmental protection and production restrictions on the supply side and changes in macro - sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 19, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a volatile trend. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1305 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1321 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1301 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 922,000 lots, a decrease of 574,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.382 million lots, a decrease of 9942 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price | Contract Name | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda Ash 2511 | 1227 | 1242 | 1222 | 1238 | - 1 | - 0.08% | 174,755 | 132,155 | | Soda Ash 2601 M | 1305 | 1321 | 1301 | 1318 | 1 | 0.08% | 922,285 | 1,381,981 | | Soda Ash 2605 | 1397 | 1412 | 1394 | 1407 | 2 | 0.14% | 30,296 | 210,144 | [3] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 19, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared with September 18. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, etc [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Chain - related - Before the holiday, glass slightly replenished stocks, and the demand support was average. In September, the profit of photovoltaic glass turned from loss to profit, and terminal component manufacturers expanded raw material procurement, which generally supported the increase in soda ash demand. However, there were differences in the sales situation among different enterprises, and the confidence in the future market was slightly divided [6] 3.3.2 Fundamental - related - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1217.5, up 0.12%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The LPR remained unchanged this month. The capacity utilization rate at the mine end has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal varieties have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has rebounded, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On September 22, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1718.0, down 0.43%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry, aiming for an average annual increase of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with economic benefits stabilizing and rebounding, and market supply - demand becoming more balanced. On the demand side, the current period's hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.0047 million tons, with hot metal output fluctuating at a high level, and the coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide in the current period was 17 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1217.50 yuan/ton, down 14.50; J主力合约收盘价 was 1718.00 yuan/ton, down 20.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 950036.00 hands, down 7417.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 52497.00 hands, down 272.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 125357.00 hands, down 9486.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 5382.00 hands, down 64.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 89.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 133.50 yuan/ton, down 11.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 1550.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1009.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - class metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 2.50; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J主力合约基差 was - 53.00 yuan/ton, up 20.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM主力合约基差 was 52.50 yuan/ton, up 14.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.80 million tons, up 1.20; the fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 304.40 million tons, up 23.80 [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.02; the raw coal output was 39049.70 million tons, up 951.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4274.00 million tons, up 713.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.00 thousand tons, up 4.40 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 515.32 million tons, up 48.97; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.80 million tons, up 2.49 [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 940.41 million tons, up 56.87; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 66.41 million tons, down 1.43 [2]. National Industry Situation - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 790.34 million tons, down 3.39; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 644.67 million tons, up 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.74 days, down 0.07; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.42 days, up 0.13 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 1016.22 million tons, up 55.50; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 [2]. - The coking coal output was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.87%, down 0.05 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17.00 yuan/ton, down 52.00; the coke output was 4259.70 million tons, up 74.20 [2]. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18 [2]. - The crude steel output was 7736.86 million tons, down 228.96 [2]. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy: the first - home purchase is exempt from property tax [2]. - The leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump said the call was "very productive", and he plans to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC meeting and visit China early next year [2]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a series of theme press conferences on "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" at 3 pm on Monday, with Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, Li Yunze, and Zhu Hexin attending [2]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on carrying out a special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry, emphasizing that online trolls and "black - mouthed" critics cannot build good cars or good brands, and only through the coordinated efforts of government supervision, enterprise self - discipline, and platform responsibility can a good public opinion environment be created [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol price is expected to be in a state of oscillatory pressure, but the downside space is gradually narrowing. The upside pressure mainly comes from the supply - side of the fundamentals, while the downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy [4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,356 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 756,698 lots, an increase of 161,276 lots; the open interest was 928,408 lots, a decrease of 14,496 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,892 tons, a decrease of 315 tons; the trading volume was 1.782594 billion yuan, an increase of 380.062 million yuan. The basis was - 108, down 9 from the previous day, and the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 20, up 19 from the previous day [2]. - In the spot market, the Jiangsu ex - tank price was 0 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan from the previous day; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Market Analysis - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.78 million tons, an increase of 0.75 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. The inventory in East China decreased, while that in South China continued to increase [4]. - The short - term main contract shows an oscillatory pressure pattern. The upside pressure comes from the high import volume and high daily output in the supply - side of the fundamentals, which leads to an increase in inventory. The downside support comes from the expectation of improved fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy. Before the next Fed meeting in October and the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, the impact of the macro - end on the commodity market is relatively limited [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of September 19, both the corn spot and futures markets declined. Newly harvested grains are gradually coming onto the market, and prices are weakening [1][2]. - The price of CBOT corn dropped by 1.4% in the week of September 19. The harvest pace in the US corn - growing belt is accelerating, and the rebound of the US dollar index has also pressured commodities priced in dollars [3]. - Corn starch inventory has decreased. As the Double Festival approaches, the downstream demand for the Double Festival stocking has gradually started, and the downstream terminal demand has slowly improved [5]. - In the short - term, the futures market will mainly fluctuate. The price decline rate is expected to be slow under the background of low carry - over stocks. Attention should be paid to the selling mentality after the new grains are listed [7]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Corn Market Review Spot Market - As of September 19, the national average corn price was 2360.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week. Different regions had different price ranges [1]. Futures Market - In the week of September 19, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2511) had a high of 2200 yuan/ton, a low of 2156 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2168 yuan/ton. The corn starch main 2511 contract closed at 2463 yuan/ton on September 19. The basis of the corn main C2511 contract strengthened [2]. 2. Corn Market Outlook CBOT Corn - In the week of September 19, CBOT corn futures dropped 1.4%. The harvest in the US corn - growing belt accelerated, and the dollar index rebound pressured commodities [3]. Wheat Price and Corn Auction - As of September 18, the national average wheat price was 2436 yuan/ton. The demand was sluggish, and the market was oversupplied. The feed substitution advantage of wheat was weakened, and the feed consumption demand decreased. There were various corn auction transactions with different planned and actual transaction volumes and changing transaction rates [4]. Corn Starch Inventory - As of the week of September 18, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 861,800 tons, a slight decrease of 13,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.53%, but an increase of 12.92% compared to the same period last year [5]. New Grain Listing - The prices of dry and wet grains are diverging, with the Northeast being slightly stronger and North China being weaker. In late September, the supply of new grains is expected to increase. The short - term futures market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the selling mentality after the new grains are listed [7].

Group 1 - As of 15:00 today, LME nickel is trading around $15,350 per ton, while the main contract for Shanghai nickel closed down by 70 to 121,500 yuan per ton, indicating a lack of strong rebound but maintaining previous levels, with expectations for opportunities next week [1] - The stainless steel futures main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also saw a decline of 50 to 12,860 yuan per ton, reflecting a weak but stable market [1] - In the spot market, the stainless steel market is generally stable with flexible pricing strategies to stimulate sales, although the overall trading atmosphere remains quiet, with only specific specifications showing some activity [1] Group 2 - Afternoon reports indicate that the mainstream price for 304 private sector cold-rolled resources is in the range of 12,750-13,050 yuan, while the hot-rolled large plate resources are maintaining around 12,650-12,700 yuan, showing little change from earlier levels [1] - For 201 stainless steel, cold and hot rolled prices have decreased by 20-50 yuan, with J1 cold-rolled resources reported at 7,500-7,850 yuan, and J2 and J5 resources around 7,050-7,150 yuan, indicating a downward trend [1] - The market is experiencing narrow fluctuations as it approaches the end of the month, with demand present but not fully realized, suggesting potential opportunities for market participants [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Excess persists [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Cost-supported [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and spot market prices, costs, and inventories [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,785 yuan, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,705 US dollars, up 16 US dollars [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,931 yuan, down 14 yuan; the trading volume was 433,801 lots, down 15,367 lots [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,320 yuan, down 140 yuan; the trading volume was 277 lots, down 2,006 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 636,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 513,900 tons, up 30,100 tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,066 yuan, down 7 yuan; the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 349 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 0 yuan, down 141 yuan; the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,400 yuan, down 100 yuan [1]. Other Information - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, China's holdings hit a new low in over sixteen years, and Canada's holdings decreased sharply by 57.1 billion US dollars [3]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].